我国华东与西南县域主要气象敏感性疾病变化特征及其医疗费用研究     

王嘉鑫  石彦军  卢山  冯鑫媛  王式功  张莹 《沙漠与绿洲气象(新疆气象)》2019,13(6):133-140

摘要：针对目前医疗费用不断上涨的现实问题,基于安徽省阜南县和贵州省锦屏县相关医疗机构的全部住院数据和气象资料,首先分析两县疾病谱特征,然后从季节和24节气角度,分析两县主要气象敏感性疾病（因天气和气候异常变化而诱发或加重的相关疾病）住院人次和医疗费用的变化特征以及人体舒适度对当地主要气象敏感性疾病发病的影响。结果表明,阜南县和锦屏县人群中住院人数最多的疾病分别是循环和呼吸系统两大类气象敏感性疾病,医疗费用最高的前六位疾病都包含循环、呼吸和消化系统疾病,其三者医疗费用总和分别占两县总医疗费用的44.9%和45.8%,因此,从降低医疗费用的角度来看加强这三类主要气象敏感性疾病的预防十分重要。此外,三种系统疾病医疗费用呈现出明显的季节变化特征：其中,循环系统疾病的医疗费用在季节转换期间明显高于各季节内,呼吸系统疾病冬春季的医疗费用远高于夏秋季节,消化系统疾病夏季医疗费用最高。两县9月的体感温度最接近人体最佳舒适温度,而此时上述三类疾病的住院人次及医疗费用也是相对低点。此研究结果可为当地相关疾病的适时防控、有效降低医疗费用提供科学依据。  相似文献   

北欧海的锋面分布特征及其季节变化   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

何琰  赵进平 《地球科学进展》2011,26(10):1079-1091

利用多年月平均格点数据分析了北欧海主要锋面的分布特征和季节变化规律,并讨论了月平均数据分析锋面适合使用的方法。月平均数据显示的锋面出现间断或多重的现象是锋面侧向摆动造成的,这是月平均数据的一大特点。北欧海各锋面主要水文和季节变化特征差异很大。东格陵兰极地锋在夏季锋面强度大,锋面较连续完整,而冬季强度小,锋面结构零散。9月由于东格陵兰寒流势力最强,可观察到温度梯度较大且连续的东格陵兰锋。北极锋的季节变化在水平方向呈＂哑铃型＂分布,中段摆动较南北两端小。由于挪威海流在冬季出现的最大流量引起挪威海流的流幅在该处加宽,莫恩海脊锋冬季向西北移动,对前人文章中基本上没有季节性移动的说法进行了修正和补充。冰岛—法罗群岛锋随深度增加向南移动,锋面强度增强,这是溢流造成的。  相似文献   

Holocene transgression of the Rhine river mouth area,The Netherlands/Southern North Sea: palaeogeography and sequence stratigraphy     

KIM M. COHEN 《Sedimentology》2011,58(6):1453-1485

This study presents a detailed reconstruction of the palaeogeography of the Rhine valley (western Netherlands) during the Holocene transgression with systems tracts placed in a precise sea‐level context. This approach permits comparison of actual versus conceptual boundaries of the lowstand, transgressive and highstand systems tracts. The inland position of the highstand Rhine river mouth on a wide, low‐gradient continental shelf meant that base‐level changes were the dominant control on sedimentation for a relatively short period of the last glacial cycle. Systems in such inland positions predominantly record changes in the balance between river discharge and sediment load, and preserve excellent records of climatic changes or other catchment‐induced forcing. It is shown here that the transgressive systems tract‐part of the coastal prism formed in three stages: (i) the millennium before 8·45 ka bp , when the area was dominated by fluvial environments with extensive wetlands; (ii) the millennium after 8·45 ka, characterized by strong erosion, increasing tidal amplitudes and bay‐head delta development; and (iii) the period between 7·5 and 6·3 ka bp when the Rhine avulsed multiple times and the maximum flooding surface formed. The diachroneity of the transgressive surface is strongly suppressed because of a pulse of accelerated sea‐level rise at 8·45 ka bp . That event not only had a strong effect on preservation, but has circum‐oceanic stratigraphical relevance as it divides the early and middle Holocene parts of coastal successions worldwide. The palaeogeographical reconstruction offers a unique full spatial–temporal view on the coastal and fluvial dynamics of a major river mouth under brief rapid forced transgression. This reconstruction is of relevance for Holocene and ancient transgressive systems worldwide, and for next‐century natural coasts that are predicted to experience a 1 m sea‐level rise.  相似文献   

全球变化背景下新疆地区气候跃变的可能影响因素分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

李稚  李卫红  陈亚宁 《冰川冻土》2011,33(6):1302-1309

基于新疆过去50a气温和降水时间序列长期趋势的研究结果,结合对1986年及附近时段对全球气候产生重大影响的一系列事件（厄尔尼诺、火山爆发、核电站爆炸事故、温室气体增加等）的分析,探讨了1986年新疆气温和降水出现跳跃式变化的原因.具体表现为：当厄尔尼诺现象发生时,常常出现暖冬、早春,在该现象消退过程,往往降水有所增多;...  相似文献   

基于ERA40资料的边界层厚度气候特征分析     

王学忠  胡邦辉  李昀英 《气象科学》2011,31(3):339-346

为了解边界层厚度的大尺度分布及其气候循环特征,基于逐日ERA 40 再分析边界层厚度资料,采用统计学方法计算边界层厚度分4个时次的季节循环、年较差等气候特征场,对全球边界层厚度分布及其季节演变特征进行了研究。结果表明：全球较厚的边界层分布与大地形、沙漠等下垫面的分布有直接联系;陆地强边界层分布存在“08时”现象,即陆地较厚边界层中心分布在当地时间08时经线附近;在大洋上南北纬30°~40°两条纬度带内边界层厚度的月尺度内变率较大,与大气强斜压性的天气系统活跃区一致;月平均日较差的年循环特征存在着季节性南北进退的现象。研究结果对于全面认识和科学利用ERA 40逐日边界层再分析资料有一定帮助。  相似文献   

Two Northward Jumps of the Summertime Western Pacific Subtropical High and Their Associations with the Tropical SST Anomalies   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

SU Tong-Hu  XUE Feng 《大气和海洋科学快报》2011,4(2):98-102

Based on the pentad mean ridgeline index of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH), the authors identified the two northward jumps of the WPSH from 1979 to 2008 and revealed their associations with the tropical SST anomalies. The authors show that the northward jumps, especially the second jump, exhibited remarkable interannual variability. In addition, the authors find that the two northward jumps were mutually independent and were influenced by the SST anomalies in the different regions of the tropical Pacific. The first jump was positively correlated with the SST anomalies in the tropical central Pacific from the preceding winter to June. In contrast, the second jump was positively related to ENSO in the preceding winter, but this correlation tended to weaken with the decay of ENSO and disappeared in July. Instead, a positive correlation was found in the Indian Ocean. We therefore suggest that ENSO plays an indirect role in the second jump through the capacitor effect of the Indian Ocean.  相似文献   

Linear and angular momentum conservation in hydraulic jump in diverging channels     

Alessandro Valiani Valerio Caleffi 《Advances in water resources》2011,34(2):227-242

This paper addresses the integral conservation of linear and angular momentum in the steady hydraulic jump in a linearly diverging channel.The flow is considered to be divided into a mainstream that conveys the total liquid discharge, and a roller where no average mass transport occurs. It is assumed that no macroscopic rheological relationship holds, so mass, momentum and angular momentum integral balances are independent relationships. Normal stresses are assumed to be hydrostatic on vertical, cylindrical surfaces. Viscous stresses are assumed to be negligible with respect to turbulent stresses. Assuming that the horizontal velocity distribution in the mainstream is uniform and that the horizontal momentum and angular momentum in the roller are negligible with respect to their mainstream counterparts, an analytical solution is obtained for the free surface profile of the flow. This solution is fundamental for finding the sequent depths and their positions. Consequently, it permits solving for the length of the jump, which is assumed to be equal to the length of the roller. Mainstream and roller thicknesses can also be derived from the present solution. This model may also be theoretically used to derive the average shear stresses exerted by the roller on the mainstream and the power losses per unit weight. This second relationship, which returns the well-known classical expression for total power loss in the jump, demonstrates that the strongly idealized mechanical model proposed here is internally consistent.  相似文献   

海洋初始状态对预报2002/03年中太平洋型厄尔尼诺事件的作用     

郑飞  王慧  万丽颖 《海洋学报(英文版)》2015,34(12):72-79

2002/03年厄尔尼诺事件,是暖海温中心出现在赤道中太平洋区域的一种新型厄尔尼诺,即中太平洋型厄尔尼诺。本文基于一个厄尔尼诺预测系统,利用三组回报试验来详细区分海洋表层和次表层初始状态对预报2002/03年中太平洋型厄尔尼诺事件的作用,并由此来探寻对预报厄尔尼诺演变过程最有利的初始条件。回报试验分为三组:(1)仅同化海表温度观测(sea surface temperature;简称SST)来优化海洋表层初始状态(Assim_SST);(2)仅同化海表高度观测(sea level;简称SL)来更新海洋次表层初始状态(Assim_SL);(3)同时同化SST和SL观测来一起更新海洋表层和次表层初始状态(Assim_SST+SL)。回报试验结果表明,三种不同的初始条件都可以使模式提前一年成功地预报2002/03年厄尔尼诺事件,并且"Assim_SST+SL"回报试验的效果最好。三组回报试验结果间的对比表明:海洋表层和次表层初始状态均对成功地预报该事件有重要作用,但其作用分别集中在事件发展的不同阶段。精确的海洋表层初始状态更容易激发模式预报出一次厄尔尼诺事件,而更合理的海洋次表层初始状态则能有效地提高厄尔尼诺事件预报的强度。  相似文献   

Challenging spatial and seasonal distribution of fish landings—The experiences from rural community quotas in Norway     

Øystein Hermansen  Bent Dreyer 《Marine Policy》2010

In most fisheries catch per unit effort shows significant seasonal and spatial variation. Traditionally, i.e. when vessels are free to choose their harvesting strategy, 80% of the Norwegian cod is landed during the winter in a limited geographical area. To alter the seasonal and spatial supply of cod to the fish processing industry, rural community quotas were introduced. In this paper, we develop a model to predict how different vessels will adapt to the quotas introduced. The hypotheses developed are mostly confirmed in an empirical study. Theoretical, methodological, and managerial implications of the findings are discussed.  相似文献   

Threshold criterion for debris flow initiation in seasonal gullies   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Yang Wang  Peng Cui  Zhaoyin Wang  Shuangqing Liang 《国际泥沙研究》2017,32(2)

A series of flume experiments were done to investigate the effect of grain composition on the critical gradient and discharge of debris flows initiated in seasonal gullies. The results indicated that the critical gradient and discharge for debris flow initiation decrease initially, and then increase as the mass content of fine particles (<2 mm) increases. As the mass content of fine particles increases, the angle of repose, permeability of widely graded gravel soils, and the incipient motion conditions of the coarse grains in non-uniform sediments decrease at first, and then increase. The mass content of fine particles of all inflection points is the same. The theoretical model based on the combination of hydrodynamic force and shear stress is more applicable to the prediction of the critical gradient for debris flow initiation. The critical discharge model considering the effect of non-homogeneity of the soil and the size of coarse and fine grains provides a more accurate prediction of debris flow initiation than other models based on the mean diameter.  相似文献