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1.
基于时空不确定性的对流尺度集合预报效果评估检验   总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3  
针对对流尺度天气系统的高度非线性特征和高分辨率模式预报结果存在时、空不确定性现象,以及当前邻域概率法主要考虑高分辨率预报结果的空间位移误差,而不能有效解决预报结果存在时间超前与滞后问题,将时间因素引入到邻域概率法中,结合一次强飑线过程进行对流尺度集合预报试验,并基于改进后的新型邻域概率法与分数技巧评分,对降水预报进行了不同时、空尺度的效果评估检验。结果表明:(1)邻域集合概率法和概率匹配平均法在极端降水的分数技巧评分远高于传统集合平均,弥补了集合平均对极端降水预报能力偏低的缺陷。(2)对于此类飑线过程的对流尺度天气系统而言,邻域半径为15—45 km的空间尺度能够改善降水位移误差的空间不确定性,并使其预报效果达到最优,其中15—30 km的邻域半径对于尺度更小的大量级降水事件预报能力更强。(3)对流尺度降水预报考虑时间尺度与降水强度存在着对应关系,不同时间尺度可以捕获到不同量级降水的时间不确定性。同时,时间尺度与空间尺度对于降水预报效果的影响是相互关联的。(4)改进的邻域概率法能够同时体现高分辨率模式预报结果在对流尺度降水事件上存在的时、空不确定性,实现了对流尺度降水在时、空尺度上的综合评估,并能为不同量级降水提供与其时、空尺度相匹配的概率预报结果。   相似文献   
2.
The current formulation of Eurocode 8 Part 3 and the Italian building code for the seismic assessment of existing buildings accounts for epistemic (knowledge‐based) uncertainties by means of the identification of knowledge levels with associated values of the so‐called confidence factors, applied only as a reduction of material strengths. This formulation does not always produce consistent results and it does not explicitly account for other sources of uncertainty. The paper proposes a probabilistic methodology for the quantification of appropriately defined factors, allowing consideration of the different sources of uncertainty involved in the seismic assessment of masonry buildings by means of nonlinear static analyses. This simple approach, also including an alternative formulation of the confidence factors related with material properties, allows to obtain results which are consistent with the acquired level of knowledge and correctly account for the different sources of uncertainty without requiring to carry out any stochastic nonlinear analysis. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
3.
震前加速破坏阶段地壳岩石破裂过程中可能辐射电磁信号,提取与之相关的电磁信号异常有助于认识地震孕育及破坏过程,从而为防震减灾提供支持.本文提出了改进型图像信息方法(Modified Pattern Informatics Method,MPI方法),并用于汶川地震前电离层参量时空特征信息的提取.通过分析对比处理前后的DEMETER电磁卫星时空图像可以发现,原始时空图像一般存在季节性和空间性的变化规律,较难获得有意义的信息;而采用MPI方法处理后,则发现汶川大地震前,电离层参量存在明显的异常变化.从而,证明了MPI方法具有消除背景趋势、突出短期变化的能力,可以有效地提取强震相关的电磁前兆信息.  相似文献   
4.
研究城市地表覆盖与地表温度(LST)的关系对改善城市生态环境具有重要科学意义。在Landsat TM数据支持下,利用线性光谱混合分析模型提取不透水地表信息,结合LST和地表热通量,分析不透水地表覆盖度(ISA)和LST的时空变化特征及其相互关系,探讨不透水地表对LST的影响机理。结果表明:1984—2014年北京不透水地表面积迅速增长,中覆盖度比例下降,高覆盖度比例增加;LST从市中心向郊区递减,高温区向外扩张;LST和ISA呈显著正相关,但不是简单的线性关系;ISA处于0.6~0.9时LST上升速率最快,减少ISA在此范围内的不透水地表集中分布可缓解高温区集中的现象。  相似文献   
5.
由于印度-欧亚板块碰撞,位于板块边界带的喜马拉雅地区大震频繁,但对其活动性的认识仍十分有限.2015年4月25日尼泊尔中东部地区时隔80年再次发生8级地震,为研究板缘地震提供了一次难得机遇.本文用西藏和尼泊尔的GPS连续观测数据和全球分布的远震地震波记录联合反演此次特大地震的破裂过程,结果显示此次地震发生在印度板块与青藏高原接触边界面——喜马拉雅主滑脱断层上.北倾11°、近东西(295°)走向的断层面破裂约100km长(博卡拉到加德满都),130km宽(从加德满都深入我国西藏吉隆县),破裂以逆冲滑动为主,平均幅度达到2.4m,释放的地震矩高达9.4×1020 N·m.反演结果还显示,震源体主要破裂分布深度范围为5~25km,应无地表破裂,属于一次盲地震.基于GPS资料推测的地壳现今运动速率及1833年地震的震源位置,我们推测地震在此次地震破裂区域复发的周期可能为150~200a,而极震区以南的深部滑脱断层仍保持闭锁,未来仍有导致灾害性大震的可能性.  相似文献   
6.
Studying climate changes over the past 2 000 years has important scientific significance in exploring climate variability on decadal to centennial timescales, assessing the natural and anthropogenic contribution to the climate warming, and understanding the effects of human activities in the past and future climate changes. Due to the scarcity of observation and uncertainty of reconstruction in this period, climate model is developed as a useful tool for studying paleoclimate.The Community Earth System Model (CESM) is one of the state-of-the-art climate models, but its performance in simulating the temperature in China has not been examined.The temperature datasets of observation/reanalysis (GHCN_CAMS) and reconstructions during the past 2000 years in China were used to examine the performance of CESM. The comparison between the annual average temperatures of GHCN_CAMS reanalysis and simulation showed that the model well reproduced the spatial distributions and upward trend of the annual average temperature in China, and the comparison with reconstructions in five sub-regions of China indicated that the simulation were in good consistent with the average temperature changes of reconstructionson decadal time scales. On the centennial time scale, the average temperature fluctuations of simulation in the regions of China were in accord with reconstructions generally except for Central East and Tibet.There existed three warm periods of simulated temperature variation in China over the past 2000 years, including 0-540AD, 800-1250AD and 1901-2000AD, and two cold periods involving the 551-721AD and 1400-1850AD, which had some discrepancies with reconstructions. And the discrepancies between simulation and reconstructions might be related to uncertainties of the resolution, external forcing and parameterization of the subgrid-scale process in the model.  相似文献   
7.
中国东部中生代岩浆活动强烈,热液型铀矿分布广泛。空间上,自北而南可划分出大兴安岭、小兴安岭-长白山、冀北-辽西、大别山北缘、长江中下游、扬子陆块东南缘、武夷-云开、东南沿海8个火山-侵入岩带和沽源-红山子、青龙-兴城、庐枞-栖霞、赣杭、武夷山、桃山-诸广、郴州-钦州、湘中、雪峰山-摩天岭9个热液型铀成矿带以及满洲里-额尔古纳、扎兰屯、伊春、金寨、天目山5个铀成矿远景带;时间上,从早到晚可划分出250~230Ma、228~205Ma、195~175Ma、165~150Ma、145~130Ma、126~115Ma、110~100Ma、97~80Ma 8个不同时期的岩浆活动和早期深源高温、晚期浅源低温两个成矿系统,深源高温成矿系统可划分出11个矿床式,浅源低温成矿系统可划分出15个矿床式。勘查成果显示,热液型铀矿对岩浆岩的岩性岩相没有选择性,但与特定时期的岩浆岩有密切的关系,其中与花岗岩有关的热液型铀矿主要赋存在三叠纪花岗岩中,与火山岩有关的热液型铀矿主要赋存在早白垩世早期高钾钙碱性流纹岩-碱性粗面岩组合中,而且晚期高侵位小岩体或火山斑岩体的内、外接触带是有利的赋矿部位。  相似文献   
8.
This study is about use of spatially distributed rain in physically based hydrological models. In recent years, spatially distributed radar rainfall data have become available. The distributed radar rain is used to precisely model hydrologic processes and it is more realistic than the past practice of distribution methods like Thiessen polygons. Radar provides a highly accurate spatial distribution of rainfall and greatly improves the basin average rainfall estimates. However, quantification of the exact amount of rainfall from radar observation is relatively difficult. Thus, the fundamental idea of this study is to apply hourly gauge and radar rainfall data in a distributed hydrological model to simulate hydrological parameters. Hence the comparison is made between the outcomes of the WetSpa model from radar rainfall distribution and gauge rainfall distributed by the Thiessen polygon technique. The comparative plots of the hydrograph and the results of hydrological components such as evapotranspiration, surface runoff, soil moisture, recharge and interflow, reflect the spatially distributed radar input performing well for model outflow simulation.
EDITOR D. Koutsoyiannis

ASSOCIATE EDITOR F. Pappenberger  相似文献   
9.
This paper develops an adaptive fuzzy controller for the dynamic positioning (DP) system of vessels with unknown dynamic model parameters and unknown time-varying environmental disturbances. The controller is designed by combining the adaptive fuzzy system with the vectorial backstepping method. An adaptive fuzzy system is employed to approximate the uncertain term induced by unknown dynamic model parameters and unknown time-varying environmental disturbances. It is theoretically proved that the proposed adaptive fuzzy DP controller can make the vessel be maintained at the desired values of its position and heading with arbitrary accuracy, while guaranteeing the uniform ultimate boundedness of all signals in the closed-loop DP control system of vessels. Simulation studies with comparisons on a supply vessel are carried out, and the results illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed control scheme.  相似文献   
10.
Several analogue modeling studies have been conducted during the past fifteen years with the aim to discuss the effects of sedimentation and erosion on Foreland Fold and Thrust Belt, among which a few have analyzed these processes at kilometric scale (Malavieille et al., 1993; Nalpas et al., 1999; Barrier et al., 2002; Pichot and Nalpas, 2009). The influence of syn-deformation sedimentation and erosion on the structural evolution of FFTB has been clearly demonstrated. Here, we propose to go further in this approach by the study of a more complex system with a double decollement level. The natural study case is the Bolivian sub-Andean thrust and fold belt, which present all the required criteria, such as the double decollement level. A set of analogue models performed under a CT-scan have been used to test the influence of several parameters on a fold and thrust belt system, among which: (i) the spatial variation of the sediment input, (ii) the spatial variation of the erosion rate, (iii) the relative distribution of sedimentation between foreland and hinterland. These experiments led to the following observations:
  • 1. The upper decollement level acts as a decoupling level in case of increased sedimentation rate: it results in the verticalization of the shallower part (above the upper decollement level), while the deeper parts are not impacted.
  • 2. Similarly, the increase of the erosion rate involves the uplift of the deeper part (below the upper decollement level), whereas the shallower parts are not impacted.
  • 3. A high sedimentation rate in the foreland involves a fault and fold vergence reversal, followed by a back-thrusting of the shallower part.
  • 4. A high sedimentation rate in the hinterland favours thrust development toward the foreland in the shallower parts.
  相似文献   
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