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使用1900年以来的太阳黑子数据,统计分析了其与新疆地区MS≥6.6强震的关系。结果显示:新疆地区69%的MS≥6.6和86%的MS≥7的地震,发生在黑子数月均值≤35的时段内。以黑子数月均值≤20和≤35的时段作为MS≥6.6强震的预测指标,报准率分别为71%和64%;以黑子数月均值≤35的时段作为MS≥6.6强震的预测指标,报准率为69%。R值评分检验表明,上述预测指标是有效的。最后使用这些统计关系和指标对新疆未来几年发生强震的可能性作了估计。 相似文献
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David Ching-Fang Shih Yih-Min Wu Gwo-Fong Lin Jyr-Ching Hu Yue-Gau Chen Chien-Hsin Chang 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2008,22(3):401-410
A transition and subduction zone adjacent to the Ryukyu Arc, Ryukyu Trench, and Okinawa Trough, extends between southern Japan
and northeastern Taiwan. It is generated during the northwestward subduction of the Philippine Sea Plate, which lies the Eurasian
Plate along the Ryukyu Trench. The movement of the Philippine Sea Plate is hindered at the northeastern corner of Taiwan,
which causes complicated structure of the Philippine Sea Plate at the western end of the Ryukyu subduction zone. Development
of the active subduction and transition boundary near the western Ryukyu Arc is evaluated statistically by using displacements
derived from GPS site data. The statistical model shows that the absolute displacement derived from GPS measurements of nearly
8 years indicates a maximum spatial variation of 0.625 m. Three trends are observed for such long-term progress, and use of
linear regression also reveals quite good consistency between the data and statistic models. Such rate is also elevated following
the trend development. Southeastern and nearly horizontal movement is suggested to the main development of for the site movements,
it is likely related to the tensional activity adjacent to this boundary. 相似文献
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The quantity of coastline retreat resulting from storm erosion is one of the most important phenomena that needs to be accurately quantified to facilitate effective coastal management strategies. Historically, the volume of storm erosion (and coastline retreat) accommodated for coastal planning decisions has been directly linked to the storm (usually defined by considering wave height and duration only) with a certain pre-defined return period, known as a Synthetic Design Storm (SDS) (e.g. 1 in 100 year storm). The SDS method of estimating storm erosion volumes for coastal planning thus assumes that, for example, the 1 in 100 year storm event also results in a 1 in 100 year erosion event. This communication discusses the physical reality of this assumption and demonstrates the improved performance of a new method, based on Joint Probability Distributions (JPD) for estimating storm erosion volumes proposed by Callaghan et al. [Callaghan, D.P., Nielsen, P., Short, A.D. and Ranasinghe, R., 2008. Statistical simulation of wave climate and extreme beach erosion. Coastal Engineering, 55(5): 375–390] using one of the world's longest beach profile surveys from Sydney, Australia. 相似文献
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为全面和系统研究北京及周边地区阵风锋各方面特征,使用2006—2015年暖季(5—9月)北京多普勒雷达探测资料及北京、河北、天津自动气象站观测资料对北京及周边地区的阵风锋过程进行综合统计分析。结果表明,346次阵风锋过程有232次触发了对流,占总数的67%,表明阵风锋对雷暴具有较强的抬升触发能力。阵风锋在6—8月出现的日数占5—9月阵风锋总日数的85%;出现的时段主要是午后至傍晚(12—21时,北京时),维持时间0.5—3 h;阵风锋在北京东南方向生成的数量最多,且触发对流的次数也最多;其次为偏东和东北方向;偏南和西南方向生成阵风锋数量居中,而偏北、偏西和西北地区阵风锋个例相对较少,触发对流的比例也相对较低。产生阵风锋的母风暴中48%为孤立雷暴(包括孤立多单体和超级单体风暴),31%为雷暴群,21%为飑线;97%的母风暴最强回波在50 dBz以上,阵风锋的回波强度为10—25 dBz。91%的阵风锋移动速度集中在10—60 km/h,84%的阵风锋与母风暴的最大距离为1—60 km;在母风暴回波强度减弱到30 dBz以下时,80%的阵风锋能够继续维持的时间不超过2 h。阵风锋母风暴向东南方向移动的个例最多,从阵风锋和母风暴移动方向的关系来看,阵风锋与母风暴移向一致的情况占比最高,为32%,其次为母风暴无移动及阵风锋弧形扩散情况,各占17%;阵风锋与母风暴移向相反情况所占比例最低,只有3%。最后统计了阵风锋经过地面自动气象站时,自动观测量的变化情况。结果显示,阵风锋在经过地面自动气象站时会造成风速增大、温度降低、相对湿度增大、气压升高。 相似文献
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The Cretaceous–Paleogene boundary (KPgB) was dated by the 40Ar/39Ar method herein from the western interior of North America at 65.48 ± 0.12 Ma (1σ), in good agreement with other recent published estimates. For the Deccan Traps, India, new argon ages as well as others available in the literature, are assessed for reliability based on (a) statistical reliability of plateau/isochron sections and (b) freshness of material dated utilizing the alteration index method. From tholeiitic lavas from the Composite Western Ghats Section (CWGS), only six ages are found to be reliable estimates of the time of crystallization. These ages along with the magnetic polarity of the lavas agree with the geomagnetic polarity time scale (GPTS) at ∼67–64 Ma. Alkaline rocks from the Anjar area of Kutch, provide three reliable ages that suggest a hiatus in lava extrusion around KPgB. For the Rajahmundry basalts, the upper flow’s age defines its formation during chron 29n; a single age from the lower reversed polarity flow appears somewhat dichotomous when plotted against the GPTS. The reliable lava ages indicate the most voluminous (reversed polarity) sections of the CWGS were extruded at a time statistically indistinguishable from that of the KPgB. The Deccan Trap – KPgB faunal extinction hypothesis remains plausible, but must compete with the latest report, favoring a very close temporal connection (∼0.03 m.y.) between the Chixculub (Impact) Crater and the KPgB. 相似文献
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Statistics of nonlinear wave crests and groups 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Groups of large nonlinear waves with sharper higher crests can pose hazards to ships, induce harbor resonance and cause wave-overtopping of fixed and floating structures. Past interest in wave groups has mostly been focused on the statistics and modeling of linear wave groups. Studies on nonlinear wave groups are surprisingly few, and address deep water waves only. Here, statistics of nonlinear wave crests and wave-crest groups in deep and transitional water depths are considered, using an appropriate second-order representation for crest heights and the continuous wave-envelope approach. In particular, theoretical expressions describing the statistics of nonlinear wave crests and their groups are posed in the form of a simple second-order transformation of well-known results on linear waves. Predictions from the transformation so posed compare well with nonlinear wave data gathered in the North Sea, and demonstrate that nonlinearities do affect the statistics of large wave crests and their groups significantly. 相似文献
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Piezocone soundings are a fast and economical approach for geotechnical site characterization, providing three separate and continuous channels of data with depth, including: tip resistance q T, porewater pressure u 2 and sleeve friction f s. Literally hundreds to thousands of data points are collected by a single sounding. Since these readings are functions of both soil type and soil behaviour, they can be used for the delineation of soil stratigraphy. One way to process large amounts of data involves clustering. Cluster analysis is an efficient statistical way to analyse the stratigraphic vertical profiling of geomaterials and means to detect the inherent similarity between data sets and group them together. Clustering in previous geotechnical research was based on only two channels of piezocone data (q T and u2). The method works well for soils that are under the groundwater table and was applied to soundings in clay deposits. In the present paper, a new cluster analysis approach is developed based on all three channels of data, thus extending the method to soils above the water table and applicable to sands, silts, and clays. Example soil profiles derived by three-channel cluster analysis are presented herein and compared with conventional soil boring and sampling data. 相似文献