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基于BPSO-NBayes的雷暴释用预报技术研究 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
提出了一种新的雷暴预报法,即二进制粒子群-朴素贝叶斯分类器(Binary Particle Swarm Optimization-Naive Bayesian Classifiers,BPSO-NBayes)方法,以福州、连城、宁波3站为例,对使用T511数值预报产品站点的雷暴释用预报技术进行研究。利用2010—2014年T511数值预报产品和单站观测资料,使用BPSO-NBayes方法,建立了0~72 h雷暴预报模型,并与Fisher判别准则和Bayes判别准则进行比较。预报结果表明,BPSO-NBayes模型临界成功指数都在0.29以上,平均值达到0.33以上,是3种方法中最好的,空报率都在0.59以下,漏报率在0.60以下,而且变化幅度很小。BPSO-NBayes模型明显优于Fisher判别准则和Bayes判别准则,具有良好的稳定性和预报能力。 相似文献
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通过对具有不同初始含水率和干密度的两种压实黏质砂土的脱湿曲线进行测试、分析和对比,并结合核磁共振技术,探讨了干密度、初始含水率和土样组分对压实黏质砂土脱湿过程的影响规律。利用核磁共振测得了试样在各级吸力下的T2时间(横向弛豫时间)分布曲线,定性地探讨了不同吸力下试样中的水分分布特征,揭示了干密度、初始含水率和土样组分对试样脱湿过程的微观机制影响。试验结果表明:干密度仅在低基质吸力条件下对试样脱湿过程产生重要影响,而在高吸力条件下初始含水率和试样组分起主导作用;核磁共振结果证实在压实黏质砂土中,小孔隙结构主要由初始含水率和试样组分控制,而大孔隙的结构主要取决于干密度;试样组分对压实土的内部结构和孔隙大小分布的影响比初始含水率大。 相似文献
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以海拉尔地区为例,提出了基于核磁共振T2谱构建水谱库进行流体性质识别的一种新方法,实测核磁谱包含了孔隙结构、水和油气的信息,构建的水谱来自于水层的核磁实测谱,相当于消除了油气的影响,其基本原理是应用构建的水谱库与实测谱的差异识别流体性质。通过在海拉尔地区应用,得到了较好的应用效果。 相似文献
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Early Neoproterozoic granulite facies metamorphism of mafic dykes from the Vestfold Block,east Antarctica 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
Proterozoic mafic dykes from the southwestern Vestfold Block experienced heterogeneous granulite facies metamorphism, characterized by spotted or fractured garnet‐bearing aggregates in garnet‐absent groundmass. The garnet‐absent groundmass typically preserves an ophitic texture composed of lathy plagioclase, intergranular clinopyroxene and Fe–Ti oxides. Garnet‐bearing domains consist mainly of a metamorphic assemblage of garnet, clinopyroxene, orthopyroxene, hornblende, biotite, plagioclase, K‐feldspar, quartz and Fe–Ti oxides. Chemical compositions and textural relationships suggest that these metamorphic minerals reached local equilibrium in the centre of the garnet‐bearing domains. Pseudosection calculations in the model system NCFMASHTO (Na2O–CaO–FeO–MgO–Al2O3–SiO2–H2O–TiO2–Fe2O3) yield P–T estimates of 820–870 °C and 8.4–9.7 kbar. Ion microprobe U–Pb zircon dating reveals that the NW‐ and N‐trending mafic dykes were emplaced at 1764 ± 25 and 1232 ± 12 Ma, respectively, whereas their metamorphic ages cluster between 957 ± 7 and 938 ± 9 Ma. The identification of granulite facies mineral inclusions in metamorphic zircon domains is also consistent with early Neoproterozoic metamorphism. Therefore, the southwestern margin of the Vestfold Block is inferred to have been buried to depths of ~30–35 km beneath the Rayner orogen during the late stage of the late Mesoproterozoic/early Neoproterozoic collision between the Indian craton and east Antarctica (i.e. the Lambert Terrane or the Ruker craton including the Lambert Terrane). The lack of penetrative deformation and intensive fluid–rock interaction in the rigid Vestfold Block prevented the nucleation and growth of garnet and resulted in the heterogeneous granulite facies metamorphism of the mafic dykes. 相似文献
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对2014年9—11月T639、ECMWF(文中简称EC)及日本(文中简称JP)数值模式的中期预报产品进行了对比分析和检验。结果表明:3个模式对亚洲中高纬环流形势的调整和演变及850 hPa温度转折性变化具有较好的中期预报性能,但对北方的温度预报偏差明显大于南方。对于副热带高压脊线的位置,T639和EC模式都有较好的预报能力,EC模式比T639模式偏差小。EC模式对于1416号台风凤凰的路径及强度预报效果与零场接近,T639和JP模式预报与实况相差较大。T639和EC模式对有利雾霾发生的静稳天气形势均有较好的中期预报能力,但对驱散雾霾的冷空气,EC模式预报与零场更加一致。 相似文献
8.
文章对2014年12月至2015年2月T639、ECMWF(文中简称EC)及日本数值模式的中期预报产品进行了对比分析和检验。结果表明:三个模式对亚洲中高纬环流形势的调整和演变及850 hPa温度转折性变化具有较好的中期预报性能,但都存在随时效增长的系统性偏差;对北方地区温度的预报, EC模式表现为预报较零场偏高,而T639模式表现为预报较零场偏低;对于海平面气压场,EC模式对冷空气前锋的预报与零场更加一致。 相似文献
9.
2015年5月大气环流和天气分析 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
对2015年3—5月T639、ECMWF(文中简称EC)及日本数值模式中期预报产品进行了检验和对比。结果表明:三个模式对亚洲中高纬地区大尺度环流和850 hPa温度的演变和调整均具有较好的预报性能,EC模式对西风指数、850 hPa温度转折过程和变化幅度的预报略优于其他两个模式。对2015年3月31日至4月1日北方地区强沙尘暴天气过程的主要影响天气系统,三个模式预报能力相当,121 h时效都较好地预报出了地面冷高压,但强度和范围与实况有一定偏差。 相似文献
10.
According to the connotation and structure of science and technology resources and some relevant data of more than 286 cities at prefecture level and above during 2001–2010, using modified method—Data Envelopment Analysis(DEA), science and technology(ST) resource allocation efficiency of different cities in different periods has been figured out, which, uncovers the distributional difference and change law of ST resource allocation efficiency from the time-space dimension. Based on that, this paper has analyzed and discussed the spatial distribution pattern and evolution trend of ST resource allocation efficiency in different cities by virtue of the Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis(ESDA). It turned out that:(1) the average of ST resource allocation efficiency in cities at prefecture level and above has always stayed at low levels, moreover, with repeated fluctuations between high and low, which shows a decreasing trend year by year. Besides, the gap between the East and the West is widening.(2) The asymmetrical distribution of ST resource allocation efficiency presents a spatial pattern of successively decreasing from Eastern China, Central China to Western China. The cities whose ST resource allocation efficiency are at higher level and high level take on a cluster distribution, which fits well with the 23 forming urban agglomerations in China.(3) The coupling degree between ST resource allocation efficiency and economic environment assumes a certain positive correlation, but not completely the same. The differentiation of ST resource allocation efficiency is common in regional development, whose existence and evolution are directly or indirectly influenced by and regarded as the reflection of many elements, such as geographical location, the natural endowment and environment of ST resources and so on.(4) In the perspective of the evolution of spatial structure, ST resource allocation efficiency of the cities at prefecture level and above shows a notable spatial autocorrelation, which in every period presents a positive correlation. The spatial distribution of ST resource allocation efficiency in neighboring cities seems to be similar in group, which tends to escalate stepwise. Meanwhile, the whole differentiation of geographical space has a diminishing tendency.(5) Viewed from LISA agglomeration map ofST resource allocation efficiency in different periods, four agglomeration types have changed differently in spatial location and the range of spatial agglomeration. And the continuity of ST resource allocation efficiency in geographical space is gradually increasing. 相似文献