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1.
In operational data assimilation systems, observation-error covariance matrices are commonly assumed to be diagonal.However, inter-channel and spatial observation-error correlations are inevitable for satellite radiances. The observation errors of the Microwave Temperature Sounder(MWTS) and Microwave Humidity Sounder(MWHS) onboard the FengYun-3A(FY-3A) and FY-3B satellites are empirically assigned and considered to be uncorrelated when they are assimilated into the WRF model's Community Variational Data Assimilation System(WRFDA). To assimilate MWTS and MWHS measurements optimally, a good characterization of their observation errors is necessary. In this study, background and analysis residuals were used to diagnose the correlated observation-error characteristics of the MWTS and MWHS. It was found that the error standard deviations of the MWTS and MWHS were less than the values used in the WRFDA. MWTS had small inter-channel errors, while MWHS had significant inter-channel errors. The horizontal correlation length scales of MWTS and MWHS were about 120 and 60 km, respectively. A comparison between the diagnosis for instruments onboard the two satellites showed that the observation-error characteristics of the MWTS or MWHS were different when they were onboard different satellites. In addition, it was found that the error statistics were dependent on latitude and scan positions.The forecast experiments showed that using a modified thinning scheme based on diagnosed statistics can improve forecast accuracy. 相似文献
2.
Using real-time correction technology for typhoons,
this paper discusses real-time correction for forecasting the
track of four typhoons during 2009 and 2010 in Japan, Beijing,
Guangzhou, and Shanghai. It was determined that the short-time
forecast effect was better than the original objective mode. By
selecting four types of integration schemes after multiple mode
path integration for those four objective modes, the forecast
effect of the multi-mode path integration is better, on average,
than any single model. Moreover, multi-mode ensemble forecasting
has obvious advantages during the initial 36h. 相似文献
3.
对传统的向后-向前选择法粗差定位方法进行改进,即在原有基础上加入对平差模型的整体检验,计算统计量的相关系数,通过对偏相关系数的检验来定位统计量相关的粗差观测值。通过模拟粗差算例证明,该算法能够准确定位多维粗差,有效改善粗差定位转移的现象,且粗差估值结果比较可靠。 相似文献
4.
Field surveys are often a primary source of aboveground biomass (AGB) data, but plot-based estimates of parameters related to AGB are often not sufficiently precise, particularly not in tropical countries. Remotely sensed data may complement field data and thus help to increase the precision of estimates and circumvent some of the problems with missing sample observations in inaccessible areas. Here, we report the results of a study conducted in a 15,867 km² area in the dry miombo woodlands of Tanzania, to quantify the contribution of existing canopy height and biomass maps to improving the precision of canopy height and AGB estimates locally. A local and a global height map and three global biomass maps, and a probability sample of 513 inventory plots were subject to analysis. Model-assisted sampling estimators were used to estimate mean height and AGB across the study area using the original maps and then with the maps calibrated with local inventory plots. Large systematic map errors – positive or negative – were found for all the maps, with systematic errors as great as 60–70 %. The maps contributed nothing or even negatively to the precision of mean height and mean AGB estimates. However, after being calibrated locally, the maps contributed substantially to increasing the precision of both mean height and mean AGB estimates, with relative efficiencies (variance of the field-based estimates relative to the variance of the map-assisted estimates) of 1.3–2.7 for the overall estimates. The study, although focused on a relatively small area of dry tropical forests, illustrates the potential strengths and weaknesses of existing global forest height and biomass maps based on remotely sensed data and universal prediction models. Our results suggest that the use of regional or local inventory data for calibration can substantially increase the precision of map-based estimates and their applications in assessing forest carbon stocks for emission reduction programs and policy and financial decisions. 相似文献
5.
6.
南海地区岩石圈资料稀少,阻碍了其形成演化过程的研究.为此,本次研究结合大地热流、空间重力异常、高程、大地水准面和地震数据,在南海西南次海盆反演了两条2.5维岩石圈剖面.本次计算基于三种假设:岩石圈地幔的密度取决于岩石温度;研究区岩石圈处于热稳定状态;研究区处于重力均衡状态.在剖面A-E中,岩石圈底界面从珠江口盆地的105 km迅速抬升到西沙海槽处的50 km,在西沙海槽、西沙-中沙群岛和西南次海盆变化不大,为50~60 km.在剖面F-I中,岩石圈底界面从西沙群岛-中建地块处的88 km向海盆逐渐抬升,在西南次海盆处为46~50 km,到郑和隆起再逐渐变深至64 km.我们比较了西南次海盆岩石圈的冷却模型和热稳定模型,根据冷却模型由水深和热流数据所推断的西南次海盆年龄比实际年龄差很多,说明冷却模型不适用于西南次海盆.通过对比剖面A-E和剖面F-I,说明了剖面A-E经历了更长时间的拉伸,证明南海西南次海盆在形成演化过程中是从北东向南西逐步打开的渐进式扩张.最后,我们综合分析西南次海盆及其大陆边缘的岩石圈结构、减薄陆壳区范围、碳酸盐台地的分布、下地壳韧性流动、流变结构和沉积层特征等多方面资料,认为西南次海盆在形成演化过程中岩石圈地幔首先破裂而地壳后破裂,属于type Ⅱ型非火山型大陆边缘. 相似文献
7.
基于一维综合孔径微波辐射计的海面温度反演研究 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Due to the low spatial resolution of sea surface temperature(T_S) retrieval by real aperture microwave radiometers,in this study, an iterative retrieval method that minimizes the differences between brightness temperature(T_B)measured and modeled was used to retrieve sea surface temperature with a one-dimensional synthetic aperture microwave radiometer, temporarily named 1 D-SAMR. Regarding the configuration of the radiometer, an angular resolution of 0.43° was reached by theoretical calculation. Experiments on sea surface temperature retrieval were carried out with ideal parameters; the results show that the main factors affecting the retrieval accuracy of sea surface temperature are the accuracy of radiometer calibration and the precision of auxiliary geophysical parameters. In the case of no auxiliary parameter errors, the greatest error in retrieved sea surface temperature is obtained at low T_S scene(i.e., 0.710 6 K for the incidence angle of 35° under the radiometer calibration accuracy of0.5 K). While errors on auxiliary parameters are assumed to follow a Gaussian distribution, the greatest error on retrieved sea surface temperature was 1.330 5 K at an incidence angle of 65° in poorly known sea surface wind speed(W)(the error on W of 1.0 m/s) over high W scene, for the radiometer calibration accuracy of 0.5 K. 相似文献
8.
Using GFDL CM2 p1(Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Climate Model, version 2 p1), the effects of initial sea temperature errors on the predictability of the Indian Ocean Dipole(IOD) are explored. When initial temperature errors are superimposed on the tropical Indian Ocean, a winter predictability barrier(WPB) and a summer predictability barrier(SPB) exist in IOD predictions. The existence of the WPB has a close relation with El Nin?o–Southern Oscillation(ENSO)in the winter of the growing phase of positive IOD events. That is, when ENSO exists in winter, no WPB appears in IOD predictions, and vice versa. In contrast, there is no inherent connection between the existence of the SPB and ENSO. Only the dominant spatial pattern of SPB-related initial errors is studied in this paper, which presents a significant west–east dipole pattern in the tropical Indian Ocean and is similar to that of WPB-related initial errors in previous studies. The SPB-related initial errors superimposed on the tropical Indian Ocean induce the sea surface temperature(SST) and wind anomalies in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Then, under the interaction between the Indian and Pacific oceans through the atmospheric bridge and Indonesian Throughflow, a west–east dipole pattern of SST errors appears in summer, which is further strengthened under the Bjerknes feedback and yields a significant SPB. 相似文献
9.
Yeboah Gyasi-Agyei 《水文科学杂志》2019,64(5):587-606
Conditional daily rainfields were generated using collocated raingauge radar data by a kriging interpolation method, and disaggregated into hourly rainfields using variants of the method of fragments. A geographic information system (GIS)-based distributed rainfall–runoff model was used to convert the hourly rainfields into hydrographs. Using the complete radar rainfall as input, the rainfall–runoff model was calibrated based on storm events taken from nested catchments. Performance statistics were estimated by comparing the observed and the complete radar rainfall simulated hydrographs. Degradation in the hydrograph performance statistics by the simulated hourly rainfields was used to identify runoff error propagation. Uncertainty in daily rainfall amounts alone caused higher errors in runoff (depth, peak, and time to peak) than those caused by uncertainties in the hourly proportions alone. However, the degradation, which reduced with runoff depth, caused by the combined uncertainties was not significantly different from that caused by the uncertainty of amounts alone. 相似文献
10.
以纠正碱蓬属Suaeda盐生植物研究中广泛存在的分类错误为目的,针对碱蓬属研究中因缺乏正确的种属鉴定与使用错误种名等导致无法确定研究对象是何植物,使研究结果丧失确定性和科学价值的问题,通过对相关错误文献的梳理,对包括《中国高等植物图鉴》在内的有关碱蓬属植物研究文献进行了初步分析,指出了有关碱蓬属植物研究中的同物异名、同名异物以及中文名与拉丁名错乱等问题并予以纠正。对提高碱蓬属植物研究的科学性与可靠性具有重要参考价值。 相似文献