Simulation of urban expansion via integrating artificial neural network with Markov chain – cellular automata     

Tingting Xu  Jay Gao  Giovanni Coco 《International journal of geographical information science》2019,33(10):1960-1983

Accurate simulations and predictions of urban expansion are critical to manage urbanization and explicitly address the spatiotemporal trends and distributions of urban expansion. Cellular Automata integrated Markov Chain (CA-MC) is one of the most frequently used models for this purpose. However, the urban suitability index (USI) map produced from the conventional CA-MC is either affected by human bias or cannot accurately reflect the possible nonlinear relations between driving factors and urban expansion. To overcome these limitations, a machine learning model (Artificial Neural Network, ANN) was integrated with CA-MC instead of the commonly used Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Logistic Regression (LR) CA-MC models. The ANN was optimized to create the USI map and then integrated with CA-MC to spatially allocate urban expansion cells. The validated results of kappa and fuzzy kappa simulation indicate that ANN-CA-MC outperformed other variously coupled CA-MC modelling approaches. Based on the ANN-CA-MC model, the urban area in South Auckland is predicted to expand to 1340.55 ha in 2026 at the expense of non-urban areas, mostly grassland and open-bare land. Most of the future expansion will take place within the planned new urban growth zone.  相似文献   

辽宁省积雪对自动气象站观测地气温差的影响     

朱玲  顾正强  龚强  晁华  李杨  徐红  周晓宇  沈历都  蔺娜 《冰川冻土》2019,41(2):293-303

利用1971—2016年辽宁省61个气象站气温、地表温度、积雪日数和积雪深度资料，分析了积雪的保温作用及其对地气温差的影响。结果表明：更换自动站前后地表温度观测方式的差异导致地气温差显著增大，地气温差的增大程度受所在区域积雪日数、积雪深度的影响显著。在积雪期较长、积雪较厚的地区，积雪引起反照率增大，使得雪面温度降低，导致雪气温差减小，而雪的保温作用使得地气温差显著增大。因此，更换自动站前地（雪）气温差与积雪日数呈显著负相关，而更换自动站后地气温差与积雪日数呈显著正相关。各台站之间地气温差随积雪深度的变化系数差异较大，为0.045~0.858 ℃?cm^-1，在年平均积雪日数＜40 d、年平均极端积雪深度＜10 cm的区域，积雪的保温作用随积雪深度增大而显著增大；在年平均积雪日数＞40 d、年平均极端积雪深度＞10 cm的区域，10 cm以下的积雪对土壤保温作用随积雪深度增大显著，当积雪深度＞10 cm后，其保温作用随积雪深度增大的幅度明显减小。  相似文献   

Urban re-generations: afterword to special issue on the politics of urban greening in Australian cities     

Donna Houston 《The Australian geographer》2020,51(2):257-263

ABSTRACT

‘Urban re-generations' is written as an afterword to the special issue of Australian Geographer on ‘The Politics of Urban Greening in Australian Cities'. The collection prompts a deep questioning of reparative and regenerative work associated with greening, green spaces and green infrastructures. The climate-driven 2019-2020 bushfire crisis and COVID-19 have amplified the visibility of the more-than-human connectivity of our cities and the deep underlying structures of social and environmental inequity underpinning a variety of urban green spaces and agendas. Inspired by the articles in this special issue, the afterword explores how we might call back the grammars and practices of regeneration from their service to the neo-liberal, settler-colonial city and instead nurture reparative de-colonial practices that aid in the collaborative work of re-composing, becoming into better relation with, and working in modes of situated historical and cultural difference, with green and just cities.  相似文献   

Long‐term monitoring of a mercury contaminated estuary (Ria de Aveiro,Portugal): the effect of weather events and management in mercury transport          下载免费PDF全文

J. P. Coelho  P. Pato  B. Henriques  A. Picado  A. I. Lillebø  J. M. Dias  A. C. Duarte  M. E. Pereira  M. A. Pardal 《水文研究》2014,28(2):352-360

The main aim of this research was to assess the mercury transport from an estuarine basin with a background of anthropogenic contamination during a spring tidal cycle (year 2009) and compare it with two previous tidal cycles (years 1994 and 1999), as part of a long‐term monitoring program. Results showed that effective mercury transport occurs both in the dissolved and particulate fractions (0.18 and 0.20 kg per tidal cycle, respectively), and despite an overall decrease in environmental contamination, results more than double previous findings on particulate transport in the system. These findings result essentially from changes in the tidal prism (net export of 2 million m³ of water), given that both dissolved and particulate concentrations did not increase over time. Hydrodynamic simulations were performed to evaluate the effect of physical disturbance (dredging) and weather events (increased freshwater flow) in these processes, and results suggest the increased freshwater flow into the system as the main forcing function for the mercury transport increment. These results highlight the importance of long‐term monitoring programs, since despite an overall improvement in local contamination levels, the enhancement of transport processes through hydrological changes increases environmental pressure away from the contamination source. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

The Impact of Urbanization on Groundwater Quantity,Quality,Hydrothermal Changes and Its Countermeasures     

Wanbin Huang  Chunhua Yan  Xiaonan Zhang  Guoyu Qiu 《地球科学进展》2020,35(5):497-512

Groundwater, as a drinking water source for nearly one third of the world’s urban population, plays a strategic role in the development of urbanization. The object of this study is urban areas with the largest demand for water resources, the heaviest load of groundwater pollution and the most intense development of underground projects. This study sorted out the eco-hydrological problems such as the variation of the groundwater hydrological process, the groundwater pollution, and the urban heat island of groundwater in urban areas under the background of urbanization. Furthermore, the mechanism of changes in the quantity, quality and heat of groundwater was also systematically analyzed, and the intrinsic interaction among these three factors was revealed. The study showed that changes in land use and land cover caused by the urbanization are the main reasons for the variation of groundwater hydrological process. The pollution load of urbanization construction and domestic production waste has aggravated the deterioration of groundwater quality. The increase in vertical heat flux caused by urbanization gives rise to the warming of groundwater. By summarizing the eco-hydrological problems and causes of groundwater in urbanized areas, several suggestions were proposed: \mathrm{①} Establishing the evaluation method and system of urban groundwater resources; \mathrm{②} Speeding up the technological breakthroughs of groundwater pollution control; \mathrm{③} Improving the regional control strategies for groundwater pollution; \mathrm{④} Optimizing the allocation of groundwater resources. This study will provide the theoretical basis and technical support for ensuring urban water safety, building ecological civilized cities and further promoting the sustainable development of economy and society.  相似文献   

渤海海峡跨海通道建设对城市经济联系的影响分析          下载免费PDF全文

狄乾斌  马洁 《海洋开发与管理》2018,35(3):102-108

渤海海峡跨海通道建设将极大改变环渤海乃至整个东部沿海的交通格局,势必对其目标城市大连、烟台带来直接的经济影响,同时也会对辽东半岛、山东半岛乃至东北、华北和华东不同尺度地区的经济联系产生深远影响。文章选取山东省17个和辽宁省14个地级市的地区的生产总值、城市人口以及城市间的最短时间距离等指标,测度渤海海峡跨海通道建成前后,对山东、辽宁两省区域城市经济联系的影响。研究表明:渤海海峡跨海通道建成后,对大连、烟台间的经济联系强度有显著提高,各城市经济联系度的平均增幅明显不同;同时,受距离衰减规律的影响,两省的城市分别以大连、烟台为中心,根据距离远近及城市自身发展程度分为4个层次,经济联系强度由内向外逐层次减弱;从整体上看,渤海通道的建设对带动两省城市之间的经济联系度都有大幅度提升。  相似文献   

“6·23”江苏阜宁EF4级龙卷超级单体风暴中尺度结构研究   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文

周海光 《地球物理学报》2018,61(9):3617-3639

2016年6月23日14—15时，江苏省阜宁县突遭"增强藤田"4级龙卷、强风、短时强降水和冰雹等强对流天气，致使99人罹难，800多人受伤，属极其罕见的极端天气事件.本文利用加密自动站数据、探空数据、单部雷达观测数据以及双多普勒雷达三维风场反演数据，研究了此次龙卷发生的天气背景、龙卷超级单体的三维结构及其演变特征.研究表明：（1）龙卷发生期间，阜宁处于地面暖湿舌内、地面有γ中尺度气旋和辐合线；环境大气抬升凝结高度很低、中低层有很强的水平风的垂直切变；这有利于龙卷的生成.（2）此次龙卷超级单体左移风暴的低层有钩状回波和入流缺口，有界弱回波区位于垂直剖面中低层、悬垂回波位于风暴前部高层.（3）龙卷发生前，风暴质心高度、最大反射率因子高度和风暴回波顶高度均持续增加，风暴垂直累积液态含水量激增；龙卷发生在上述参数的数值首次同时减小时.（4）双多普勒雷达反演的三维风场揭示，超级单体形成之前的对流风暴内部中低层已经有中尺度气旋形成，中尺度气旋伴随着超级单体的生成、发展和强化的各个阶段.中尺度气旋位于钩状回波顶端、其南端有反气旋，此涡旋偶对于中层动量下传、龙卷生成、发展、加强和触地具有重要作用.  相似文献   

地面稠密观测资料在强对流天气监测预警中的研究进展     

李佩芝  周长春  华维 《云南地理环境研究》2020,(1):53-58

综述国内外数篇论文,从强对流天气监测、预报预警、模式同化3个方面总结分析了近年来地面稠密观测资料的应用与优劣之处。综述表明:地面加密自动站、风廓线雷达、地基GPS、雨滴谱仪等多种观测仪器组成的地面稠密观测网具有时间尺度密集、覆盖面积广泛、能捕捉较多细微变化的优势,通过该观测网所得数据总结出的一系列指示性指标在强对流监测预警中具有重要的指示意义。但因中国地形天气情况复杂多变、数据缺失、仪器造价昂贵等问题,导致该观测网所得指示性指标不能适用于中国全境,应根据该观测网数据分析总结适应本地的预报指标。  相似文献   

基于大数据分析下的气候模型     

张宸豪  冯曦  冯卫兵  刘涛  丁坤 《海洋科学》2020,44(10):1-11

为研究全球变暖与极寒天气间的关系，对加拿大13个省代表性测站10年的观测数据进行时空变化趋势分析，采用经验正交函数（EOF）寻找海洋表面温度历史数据的变化规律。另外利用BP神经网络建立了年平均温度、日降水量与地球吸热、散热、海表面温度、当地纬度间的关系，预测未来25年气候的变化，并建立了“极寒天气”与气候变化的关系模型。研究表明：高纬度地区温度、降水量普遍较低，同经度地区的温度差异较小且降水量变化不大；加拿大地区温度呈周期性变化，符合北半球的季节变化特征；北大西洋的东部与其他海洋的温度是反相关的，西太平洋南北回归线附近的海洋表面温度升高；“极寒天气”出现频率与气候变化有一定关系，局地极寒现象与全球变暖的大趋势并不矛盾。本研究为人们认识和理解“全球变暖”提供了一个新的思路。  相似文献   

风云三号C星SEM高能粒子数据检验及应用     

李嘉巍  黄聪  于超  张贤国  王春琴  张效信  曹光伟  孙越强 《遥感学报》2018,22(1):76-86

风云三号C星(FY-3C卫星)空间环境监测器(SEM)可监测轨道高度上的高能带电粒子(质子、电子和重离子)辐射环境及其引起的辐射剂量和表面充电等空间天气效应,是空间天气监测预警业务不可或缺的自主数据源之一。为验证FY-3C卫星高能粒子探测数据的有效性,需开展数据的定量检验工作。本文采用与同类卫星同类数据进行交叉比对的方式来进行检验。首先,根据一定的假设条件,对比对数据进行归一化处理,尽量消除不同卫星间观测时间、空间(星下点经、纬度和高度)、方向和能量范围等差异对高能粒子分布的影响,然后进行比对,最后计算比对数据间的相关系数、斜率和标准偏差等统计参数,并据此评价比对数据的一致性。通过空间天气平静期高能质子和高能电子与NOAA-18和FY-3B卫星数据的交叉比对可以看出,FY-3C卫星高能粒子数据与比对卫星数据具有较好的一致性。由于工作原理和技术指标相同,FY-3C与FY-3B卫星高能粒子数据的一致性更好,也证明了载荷技术状态的稳定性。通过对太阳质子事件和高能电子暴的观测实例证明,FY-3C卫星高能粒子数据能够准确地反映空间天气扰动事件的特征和强度。以上结果表明,FY-3C卫星高能粒子数据可信度较高,能够用于空间天气监测、预警以及研究工作。  相似文献