Adaptive Transitions: The Long‐Term Perspective on Humans in Changing Coastal Settings     

Craig E. Colten 《Geographical review》2019,109(3):416-435

Adaptation is a key concept in long‐term human adjustments to climate change. Despite the centrality of human decisions and actions in adaptation, much of the climate change literature is thin on humanities and social science which are the primary approaches for understanding human activity. This situation is particularly pronounced in Louisiana's discussions about its disappearing coast line where research has concentrated in understanding biophysical processes and solutions prioritize short‐term adaptations. This paper reviews the relationship of adaptation and long‐term transitions in the global change discussion and traces how disjointed adaptations in coastal Louisiana have contributed to a perilous environmental situation there. It proposes a shift from discrete adaptations to efforts that incorporate interrelated biophysical and human adaptations that can sustain long‐term transitions.  相似文献   

不同空间尺度的山洪灾害风险评价模型对比研究          下载免费PDF全文

田丰  张军  冉有华  刘金鹏  周翼 《干旱区地理》2019,42(3):559-569

以山洪灾害风险评价的多准则决策模型、最大熵模型、信息量模型三种常见模型为研究对象，选取河西走廊和张掖市为地理区划（大中）、市域（小）空间尺度研究区，构建山洪灾害风险评价指标体系，分别完成基于三种模型的两种空间尺度的山洪灾害风险评价制图，基于甘肃省地质灾害调查与区划报告数据从模型验证、空间自相关、精度对比和尺度效应等角度对比分析三个模型应用于不同空间尺度的适应性，并给出优选模型。结果表明：最大熵模型是河西走廊（地理区划）空间尺度上山洪灾害风险评价的优选模型；多准则决策模型不适用于张掖市（市域）空间尺度评价，且三个模型运行结果均没有河西走廊（地理区划）空间尺度上表现良好；三个模型的尺度效应明显，在地理区划空间尺度上应用较良好，缩小至市域空间尺度上模拟结果误差增大；不同空间尺度上，最大熵模型均优于多准则决策模型和信息量模型，适用于地理区划（大中）、市域（小）空间尺度的山洪灾害风险评价。  相似文献   

Are managed retreat programs successful and just? A global mapping of success typologies,justice dimensions,and trade-offs     

《Global Environmental Change》2022

As managed retreat programs expand across the globe, there is an urgent need to assess whether these programs are reducing exposure to climatic hazards, enhancing adaptive capacity, and improving the living conditions of communities in a just and equitable manner or are they exacerbating existing risks and vulnerabilities? Strictly speaking, are retreat programs successful? Using an expansive intersectional justice approach to examine 138 post-resettlement case studies published between 2000 and 2021 across the Global North and South, we identified five typologies of success – techno-managerial, eco-restorative, compensatory, reformative, and transformative – and their trade-offs and synergies. Our meta-analysis incorporated a variety of metrics: relocation types, funding, decision making, socio-economic class, land use change, livelihood options, and social impacts. We found 26% of cases failed, 43% were successful, and 30% are on-going and therefore success was undetermined. The techno-managerial cases, while successful in the limited terms of relocating residents, paid little attention to equity and justice. The eco-restorative and compensatory cases reduced hazard exposure but revealed the synergies and tensions associated with social, ecological, and intergenerational justice. The reformative and transformative cases improved community wellbeing, rootedness, and access to livelihoods while incorporating diverse justice concerns to different degrees. By intersecting these typologies with multiple dimensions of justice, this study advances a novel planning and analytical tool for assessing the potential success or failure of current and future retreat programs.  相似文献   

The strengths and weaknesses of future visioning approaches for climate change adaptation: A review     

《Global Environmental Change》2022

Adaptation to climate change is about planning for the future while responding to current pressures and challenges. Adaptation scientists are increasingly using future visioning exercises embedded in co-production and co-development techniques to assist stakeholders in imagining futures in a changing climate. Even if these exercises are growing in popularity, surprisingly little scrutiny has been placed on understanding the fundamental assumptions and choices in scenario approaches, timeframes, scales, or methods, and whether they result in meaningful changes in how adaptation is being thought about. Here, we unpack key insights and experiences across 62 case studies that specifically report on using future visioning exercises to engage stakeholders in climate change adaptation. We focus on three key areas: 1) Stakeholder diversity and scales; 2) Tools, methods, and data, and 3) Practical constraints, enablers, and outcomes. Our results show that most studies focus on the regional scale (n = 32; 52%), involve mainly formal decision makers and employ vast array of different methods, tools, and data. Interestingly, most exercises adopt either predictive (what will happen) and explorative (what could happen) scenarios while only a fraction use the more normative (what should happen) scenarios that could enable more transformative thinking. Reported positive outcomes include demonstrated increases in climate change literacy and support for climate change adaptation planning. Unintended and unexpected outcomes include increased anxiety in cases where introduced timeframes go beyond an individual’s expected life span and decreased perceived necessity for undertaking adaptation at all. Key agreed factors that underpin co-production and equal representation, such as gender, age, and diversity, are not well reported, and most case studies do not use reflective processes to harness participant feedback that could enable more robust methodology development. This is a missed opportunity in developing a more fundamental understanding of how these exercises can effectively shift individual and collective mindsets and advance the inclusion of different viewpoints as a pathway for more equitable and just climate adaptation.  相似文献   

Situated adaptation: Tackling the production of vulnerability through transformative action in Sri Lanka’s Dry Zone     

《Global Environmental Change》2021

Drawing attention to the production of vulnerability across scales in Sri Lanka, we contribute to knowledge of why certain people and social groups are vulnerable. We build our contribution on the theoretical application of ‘situated adaptation’. A situated analytical approach identifies, assesses, and responds to the everyday realities and politics of those living in climate changed environments. It highlights uneven geographies of vulnerability and opportunity, while identifying new imaginations and possibilities for transformative action that counter the production of vulnerability. We illustrate the utility of ‘situated adaptation’ by filling an empirical gap relating to experiences of political-economic and environmental change in Sri Lanka’s Dry Zone. We detail situated experiences by drawing on field research in the Anuradhapura District, revealing how the lives and livelihoods of farmer participants are structured by a productivity-vulnerability paradox. We demonstrate how a prevalent adaptation-development paradigm (whereby development and adaptation programs co-exist in theory and practice) is unable to address the structural drivers of vulnerability in Sri Lanka’s Dry Zone. A situated adaptation approach both explains why this is the case and highlights opportunities for alternative transformative actions, potentially identifying a more democratic and egalitarian politics of co-determining socionatural change.  相似文献   

In government we trust? Micro-business adaptation to climate change in four post-colonial and transitional economies of China     

《Global Environmental Change》2021

Public expectations of government influence private action for managing climate change risks. Institutional neglect or incompetence result in a loss of trust in public institutions, consequently discouraging the public from taking added responsibility for risk management. This has been explained in terms of social contract, but evidence suggests that a politics of distrust can reinforce alternative social drivers of action, rather than displacing action. This is empirically confirmed by the present study, which examines the tendencies for adopting private protective measures across a gradient of institutional trust. Surveys were conducted in four jurisdictions within China that operate under two different political-economic systems, namely, Hong Kong and Macao (liberal market economy), and Zhuhai and Sanya (socialist market economy). Structured interviews were conducted with 569 business operators to explore how their stated adaptation practice is related to institutional trust and social capital. We found that trust predicted action only in Sanya, which is characterized by a high level of public confidence in authorities. In places of lower institutional trust, social capital became a salient and powerful driver of action. The weakening of the social contracts in Hong Kong and Macao turned their people to alternative social mechanisms. We explain the results in terms of the development trajectories, socio-political norms and institutional settings of these jurisdictions. This study provides insights into how adaptation practice can be mediated by the consequences of a change in political leadership, policy, or governance arrangements that alters the relationship of trust.  相似文献   

Implementing climate change adaptation: lessons from India’s national adaptation fund on climate change (NAFCC)     

Ravi S. Prasad 《Climate Policy》2019,19(3):354-366

With poverty alleviation and sustainable development as key imperatives for a developing economy like India, what drives the resource-constrained state governments to prioritize actions that address climate change impacts? We examine this question and argue that without access to additional earmarked financial resources, climate action would get overshadowed by developmental priorities and effective mainstreaming might not be possible. A systematic literature review was carried out to draw insights from the current state of implementation of adaptation projects, programmes and schemes at the subnational levels, along with barriers to mainstreaming climate change adaptation. The findings from a literature review were supplemented with lessons emerging from the implementation of India’s National Adaptation Fund on Climate Change (NAFCC). The results of this study underscore the scheme’s relevance.

Key policy insights

• Experience with NAFCC implementation reveals that states require sustained ‘handholding’ in terms of financial, technical and capacity support until climate change issues are fully understood and embedded in the policy landscape.

• Domestic sources of finance are critically important in the absence of predictable and adequate adaptation finance from international sources.

• The dedicated window for climate finance fosters a spirit of competitive federalism among states and encourages enhanced climate action.

• Enhanced budgetary allocation to NAFCC to strengthen the state-level adaptation response and create capacity to mainstream climate change concerns in state planning frames, is urgently needed.

  相似文献   

Flood insurance arrangements in the European Union for future flood risk under climate and socioeconomic change     

《Global Environmental Change》2019

Flood risk will increase in many areas around the world due to climate change and increase in economic exposure. This implies that adequate flood insurance schemes are needed to adapt to increasing flood risk and to minimise welfare losses for households in flood-prone areas. Flood insurance markets may need reform to offer sufficient and affordable financial protection and incentives for risk reduction. Here, we present the results of a study that aims to evaluate the ability of flood insurance arrangements in Europe to cope with trends in flood risk, using criteria that encompass common elements of the policy debate on flood insurance reform. We show that the average risk-based flood insurance premium could double between 2015 and 2055 in the absence of more risk reduction by households exposed to flooding. We show that part of the expected future increase in flood risk could be limited by flood insurance mechanisms that better incentivise risk reduction by policyholders, which lowers vulnerability. The affordability of flood insurance can be improved by introducing the key features of public-private partnerships (PPPs), which include public reinsurance, limited premium cross-subsidisation between low- and high-risk households, and incentives for policyholder-level risk reduction. These findings were evaluated in a comprehensive sensitivity analysis and support ongoing reforms in Europe and abroad that move towards risk-based premiums and link insurance with risk reduction, strengthen purchase requirements, and engage in multi-stakeholder partnerships.  相似文献   

On matryoshkas and meaning-making: Understanding the plasticity of climate change     

《Global Environmental Change》2019

Climate change is a complex issue and means different things to different people. Numerous scholars in history, philosophy, and psychology have explored these multiple meanings, referred to as the plasticity of climate change. Building on psychological research that seeks to explain why meanings differ, I present an analytical framework that draws on adult developmental psychology to explore how meaning is constructed, and how it may become increasingly more complex across a lifespan in a nested manner, much like Russian dolls (or matryoshkas). I then use the framework to analyze photo voice data from a case study about local perspectives on climate change in El Salvador. The main finding from this analysis is that a developmental approach can help to make sense of why there is such plasticity of meanings about climate change. Using photos and their interpretations to illustrate these findings, I examine how perspective-taking capacities arrive at different meanings about climate change, based on the object of awareness, complexity of thought, and scope of time. I then discuss implications of this preliminary work on how developmental psychology could help climate change scholar-practitioners to understand and align with different climate change meanings and support local actors to translate their own meanings about climate change into locally-owned actions.  相似文献   

An adaptive finite element model for wellbore breakout simulation     

Diogo L. Cecílio  Philippe R. B. Devloo  Sônia M. Gomes  Erick S.R. Santos 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2019,43(4):814-828

A finite element formulation is proposed and implemented for analysing the stability of excavated wells using the DiMaggio-Sandler constitutive elastoplastic model with a typical carbonate reservoir configuration. The quality of the finite element approximation is ensured by applying smooth curved elements adapted to the wellbore geometry, and h − p adaptive finite element meshes in the plastic zone. General purpose procedures are defined to transfer the elastoplastic deformation history to newly created integration points. A breakout damage criterion is proposed based on the second invariant of the deviatoric plastic deformation tensor. This damage criterion is used to apply a mesh movement algorithm to represent material collapse. The automatic successive application of the breakout damage criterion results in elliptical realistically looking geometries obtained in experiments reported in the literature.  相似文献