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针对电离层总电子含量(TEC)数据非线性、非平稳的特点,在自回归移动平均(ARMA)模型的基础上,结合经验小波变换(EWT),提出一种组合的短期电离层预测方法。采用IGS提供的电离层TEC格网数据进行实验,通过对比分析可知,相较于单一ARMA模型,本文组合模型在太阳活动低年和太阳活动高年5 d内的平均相对精度分别提高4.8%和2.8%,前1 d内组合模型的平均相对精度分别提高7%和6.1%。 相似文献
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Pouria Kourehpaz Carlos Molina Hutt Nasser A. Marafi Jeffrey W. Berman Marc O. Eberhard 《地震工程与结构动力学》2021,50(1):26-42
Studies of recorded ground motions and simulations have shown that deep sedimentary basins can greatly increase the intensity of earthquake ground motions within a period range of approximately 1–4 s, but the economic impacts of basin effects are uncertain. This paper estimates key economic indicators of seismic performance, expressed in terms of earthquake‐induced repair costs, using empirical and simulated seismic hazard characterizations that account for the effects of basins. The methodology used is general, but the estimates are made for a series of eight‐ to 24‐story residential reinforced concrete shear wall archetype buildings in Seattle, WA, whose design neglects basin effects. All buildings are designed to comply with code‐minimum requirements (i.e., reference archetypes), as well as a series of design enhancements, which include (a) increasing design forces, (b) decreasing drift limits, and (c) a combination of these strategies. As an additional reference point, a performance‐based design is also assessed. The performance of the archetype buildings is evaluated for the seismic hazard level in Seattle according to the 2018 National Seismic Hazard Model (2018 NSHM), which explicitly considers basin effects. Inclusion of basin effects results in an average threefold increase in annualized losses for all archetypes. Incorporating physics‐based ground motion simulations to represent the large‐magnitude Cascadia subduction interface earthquake contribution to the hazard results in a further increase of 22% relative to the 2018 NSHM. The most effective of the design strategies considered combines a 25% increase in strength with a reduction in drift limits to 1.5%. 相似文献
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本文以阿尔泰山两河源保护区采金废弃矿区为研究区,从地形、土壤、水分和地表植被4个方面出发,结合矿区现有条件,设置11种恢复措施,选取丰富度指数、优势度指数、多样性指数、均匀度指数、生物量、植被盖度、物种数及土石比等7个评价指标,采用主成分分析法,得出不同恢复措施的主成分得分及生态效益排名。结果表明,单一恢复措施,如推平、羊群驻扎、泥浆等基本上是从某一个方面来考虑生态恢复的,存在一定的缺陷,恢复效益排名比较靠后;多种措施相结合,不仅能改善土壤环境,也会引起植物群落多样性格局的变化,生态恢复效益很好;同一种恢复措施,施行年限越长恢复效果越好。 相似文献
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Farmland abandonment is a global problem and considered one of the most important areas in land use change research. Farmland abandonment research currently focuses on understanding the factors that affect farmland abandonment and developing scientific models to simulate farmland abandonment. The study reviewed the natural and political factors driving farmland abandonment and summarized the main models for farmland abandonment simulation together with their advantages and disadvantages. We discuss the main ecological effects of farmland abandonment and propose farmland abandonment research directions. The study found that: (1) the influence of labor cost change and ageing labor force on farmland abandonment needs further investigation, (2) simulation models for farmland abandonment must include the decision-making mechanism of individual farmers and focus on macro large-scale abandonment prediction models, and (3) the influence of farmland abandonment on landscape culture must be investigated in detail. 相似文献
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利用MGEX(multi-GNSS experiment)发布的BDS卫星差分码偏差(differential code bias, DCB)产品,比较分析不同太阳活动水平下BDS卫星DCB产品的稳定性变化特性,并采用差分自回归移动平均(auto-regressive integrated moving average, ARIMA)时间序列预测模型,实现不同太阳活动水平下BDS卫星DCB的短期预报。结果表明,在太阳活动高年,BDS卫星DCB日解值稳定度、月稳定性均明显低于太阳活动低年,且不同卫星星座类型的BDS卫星DCB稳定性也存在差异;ARIMA时间序列预报结果与MGEX发布值符合程度较好,优于多项式拟合法预测结果。 相似文献
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Tidal effects on intra-continental earthquake initiation in the Tibetan Plateau and its adjacent areas* 下载免费PDF全文
To investigate the tidal effects on intra-continental earthquake initiation in the Tibetan Plateau and its surrounding areas, we selected over 1,500 focal mechanism solutions of inland earthquakes (epicenter locates at least 100 km to the coastlines) from Global Centroid Moment Tensor (GCMT) project and analyzed the p-values of tidal normal and shear stress as well as tidal Coulomb failure stress. For Coulomb failure stress calculation, we used Coulomb 3.40 software. We find that: (1) p-values of tidal stress change suggests a high tidal correlation of earthquake imitations with tidal normal stress change; (2) when tidal normal stress reached the local maximum values of compression and when tidal shear stress were closed to the positive peaks, earthquakes generated more frequently; (3) particular seismogenic environments such as strong continental plate interactions and the existence of fluids or rheologic substance possibly raise the tidal correlations and (4) higher sensitivity of earthquake initiation to earth tide presents along with higher seismicity, suggesting the rate of rain energy accumulation somehow has a dominating effect on the tidal correlation of earthquake initiation. 相似文献
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研究并实现中国区域北斗广域差分实时电离层延迟格网改正算法,针对北斗单系统实时建立电离层延迟格网的不足,提出联合BDS/GPS的北斗广域差分实时电离层延迟改正方法。比较BDS、GPS以及BDS/GPS观测的实时电离层延迟格网,并利用北斗单频单点伪距定位进行精度验证。结果表明,在有效格网点覆盖充足的地区,BDS与GPS实时电离层延迟格网定位效果相当;而联合BDS/GPS观测的实时电离层延迟格网极大提高了偏远地区的单频定位精度与可定位历元数,也使原本单系统格网覆盖充足的地区定位效果得到进一步增强和稳定。 相似文献
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2016年5月15日清晨河西走廊东部发生区域性强霜冻天气,对农林业生产造成了2004年以来最为严重的灾害。本文利用实时MICAPS常规观测资料、物理量场和河西走廊东部区域内6个国家自动气象观测站和93个区域气象站观测资料,对这次冻害天气过程的天气学成因进行分析,在此基础上分析了霜冻对农业的影响。结果表明强冷空气爆发是造成冻害的直接原因;0 cm地面温度和气温≤0 ℃持续时间长,导致农林作物深度冻伤;前期气温偏高使得农林作物发育期提前,加之霜冻出现时间偏迟,农林作物抵抗冻害的能力明显下降,冻害影响加重;冻害发生后,温度急剧上升、湿度迅速减小,作物水分强烈蒸腾,作物细胞失去受损,导致受灾程度加重。 相似文献