基于水资源约束的中国城镇化SD模型与模拟   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

曹祺文  鲍超  顾朝林  管卫华 《地理研究》2019,38(1):167-180

中国城镇化正处于快速发展阶段,尽管经济和社会发展主控要素还在发挥重要作用,但水资源在生产、生活和生态方面发挥主控作用的局面愈益明显。在中国城镇化系统动力学（system dynamics,SD）模型基础上,从水资源供给、需求和水环境等层面将水资源作为主控要素嵌入原有模型中,拓展出基于水资源约束的中国城镇化SD模型,并对水资源利用进行了多情景模拟。结果表明：① 系统存流量和灵敏度检验证明模型模拟效果良好,具有可操作性。② 部门用水效率一定时,产业发展对水资源供需平衡的影响比人口增长更为明显。③ 在实行节水农业、节水工业、高生活需水、高生态环境需水和高再生水利用的综合协调方案中,2050年中国城镇化的发展约共需6789.70亿 m³水资源,基本实现水资源供需平衡。  相似文献   

Temporal and Spatial Dynamics Analysis of Grassland Ecosystem Pressure in Kazakhstan     

WEN Xin  YAN Huimin  XIE Xiaoping  DU Wengpeng  LAI Chenxi  ZHEN Lin 《资源与生态学报(英文版)》2019,10(6):667-675

Affected by climate change and policy factors, Kazakhstan is the country with the most severe ecological degradation and grassland conflicts in Central Asia. Therefore, studying the state of grassland carrying resources in Kazakhstan is particularly important for understanding the responses of grassland ecosystems to climate change and human activities. Based on Kazakhstan's remote sensing data and animal husbandry statistics, this study analyzes the patterns of changes in grassland ecosystems in Kazakhstan based on the supply and consumption of these ecosystems. The results show that: 1) From 2003 to 2017, the number of livestock raised in Kazakhstan showed a trend of sustained and steady growth. Due to freezing damage, the scale of livestock farming decreased in 2011, but a spatial difference in the livestock farming structure was not obvious. 2) The fluctuation of grassland supply in Kazakhstan has increased, while the consumption due to animal husbandry has also continued to increase, resulting in an increasing pressure on the grassland carrying capacity. 3) Between 2003 and 2017, the overall grassland carrying status of Kazakhstan have been abundant, but the grassland carrying pressure index has shown a steadily increasing trend, the grassland carrying pressure is growing, and it is mainly determined by grassland productivity. The greater pressure in lower Kyzylorda state, the southern Kazakhstan state of the cultivated land and the northern Kazakhstan state has gradually expanded to include the agro-pastoral zone and the semi-desert zone.  相似文献   

An improved input energy spectrum verified by the shake table tests     

Ahmet Güllü  Ercan Yüksel  Cem Yalçın  A. Anıl Dindar  Hasan Özkaynak  Oral Büyüköztürk 《地震工程与结构动力学》2019,48(1):27-45

Input energy is the principal component of the energy balance equation. It is beneficial to determine, through its components, how the recoverable and irrecoverable energies are distributed within the structural elements. Several equations and attenuation relations to define mass-normalized input energy spectra exist in the literature. They are mainly proposed for elastic systems subjected to far-fault EQs. There is a lack of experimental verification of these proposed spectra. In this paper, experimental assessment was performed to the existing spectra, and further improvements were accomplished. For this purpose, steel cantilever columns were tested on the shake table for two specific historical EQs coincidently having similar spectral acceleration values. Based on the experimental results, a three-part mass-normalized relative input energy spectrum was formulated including soil type, EQ (corner period, intensity, duration, spectral acceleration, and velocity), and structural behavioral characteristics (period and structural damping). The proposed input energy spectrum was experimentally calibrated and numerically validated for various EQs featuring near- and far-field types. Analytical and experimental comparisons were made between the previously developed spectrum and the newly proposed one. The validation studies and the statistical evaluations exposed that the proposed spectrum yielded better agreement with the experimental and numerical results.  相似文献   

Cotton canopy reflectance under variable solar zenith angles: Implications of use in evapotranspiration models     

Christopher M. U. Neale  Maria P. Gonzalez-Dugo  Angelica Serrano-Perez  Isidro Campos  Luciano Mateos 《水文研究》2021,35(6):e14162

Evapotranspiration (ET) is an important parameter in hydrologic processes and modelling. In agricultural watersheds with competing uses of fresh water including irrigated agriculture, estimating crop evapotranspiration (ET_c) accurately is critical for improving irrigation system and basin water management. The use of remote sensing-based basal crop coefficients is becoming a common method for estimating crop evapotranspiration for multiple crops over large areas. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and the Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index (SAVI), based on reflectance in the red and near-infrared bands, are commonly used for this purpose. In this paper, we examine the effects of row crop orientation and soil background darkening due to shading and soil surface wetness on these two vegetation indices through modelling, coupled with a field experiment where canopy reflectance of a cotton crop at different solar zenith angles, was measured with a portable radiometer. The results show that the NDVI is significantly more affected than the SAVI by background shading and soil surface wetness, especially in north–south oriented rows at higher latitudes and could lead to a potential overestimation of crop evapotranspiration and irrigation water demand if used for basal crop coefficient estimation. Relationships between the analysed vegetation indices and canopy biophysical parameters such as crop height, fraction of cover and leaf area index also were developed for both indices.  相似文献   

The effects of initial soil moisture conditions on swale flow hydrographs          下载免费PDF全文

Hendrik Rujner  Günther Leonhardt  Jiri Marsalek  Anna‐Maria Perttu  Maria Viklander 《水文研究》2018,32(5):644-654

The effects of soil water content (SWC) on the formation of run‐off in grass swales draining into a storm sewer system were studied in two 30‐m test swales with trapezoidal cross sections. Swale 1 was built in a loamy fine‐sand soil, on a slope of 1.5%, and Swale 2 was built in a sandy loam soil, on a slope of 0.7%. In experimental runs, the swales were irrigated with 2 flow rates reproducing run‐off from block rainfalls with intensities approximately corresponding to 2‐month and 3‐year events. Run‐off experiments were conducted for initial SWC (SWC_ini) ranging from 0.18 to 0.43 m³/m³. For low SWC_ini, the run‐off volume was greatly reduced by up to 82%, but at high SWC_ini, the volume reduction was as low as 15%. The relative swale flow volume reductions decreased with increasing SWC_ini and, for the conditions studied, indicated a transition of the dominating swale functions from run‐off dissipation to conveyance. Run‐off flow peaks were reduced proportionally to the flow volume reductions, in the range from 4% to 55%. The swale outflow hydrograph lag times varied from 5 to 15 min, with the high values corresponding to low SWC_ini. Analysis of swale inflow/outflow hydrographs for high SWC_ini allowed estimations of the saturated hydraulic conductivities as 3.27 and 4.84 cm/hr in Swales 1 and 2, respectively. Such estimates differed from averages (N = 9) of double‐ring infiltrometer measurements (9.41 and 1.78 cm/hr). Irregularities in swale bottom slopes created bottom surface depression storage of 0.35 and 0.61 m³ for Swales 1 and 2, respectively, and functioned similarly as check berms contributing to run‐off attenuation. The experimental findings offer implications for drainage swale planning and design: (a) SWC_ini strongly affect swale functioning in run‐off dissipation and conveyance during the early phase of run‐off, which is particularly important for design storms and their antecedent moisture conditions, and (b) concerning the longevity of swale operation, Swale 1 remains fully functional even after almost 60 years of operation, as judged from its attractive appearance, good infiltration rates (3.27 cm/hr), and high flow capacity.  相似文献   

Artificial recharge efficiency assessment by soil water balance and modelling approaches in a multi-layered vadose zone in a dry region     

Mojtaba Pakparvar  Hossein Hashemi  Meisam Rezaei  Wim M. Cornelis  Gholamali Nekooeian  Sayyed Ahang Kowsar 《水文科学杂志》2018,63(8):1183-1202

To assess recharge through floodwater spreading, three wells, approx. 30 m deep, were dug in a 35-year-old basin in southern Iran. Hydraulic parameters of the layers were measured. One well was equipped with pre-calibrated time domain reflectometry (TDR) sensors. The soil moisture was measured continuously before and after events. Rainfall, ponding depth and the duration of the flooding events were also measured. Recharge was assessed by the soil water balance method, and by calibrated (inverse solution) HYDRUS-1D. The results show that the 15 wetting front was interrupted at a layer with fine soil accumulation over a coarse layer at the depth of approx. 4 m. This seemed to occur due to fingering flow. Estimation of recharge by the soil water balance and modelling approaches showed a downward water flux of 55 and 57% of impounded floodwater, respectively.  相似文献   

中印对尼泊尔地缘影响力的演变分析     

张良兵  骆华松  洪菊花  陆好健 《世界地理研究》2020,29(1):43-51

尼泊尔在地理位置上处于中国和印度包围之中，由于历史原因，其经济、政治、军事等长期受到制约。随着中国“一带一路”倡议的推进和中印近年来领土和国际政治问题的冲突与分歧，尼泊尔正在成为中印新的角力场。本文首先通过构建地缘影响力模型进行演变格局分析与趋势预测，并加入世界环境和区域环境两方面影响因素，运用定性与定量分析结合的方法，预测中、尼、印三国未来战略行动方向。综合以上分析发现：1）2000年—2016年，中国对尼泊尔地缘影响力较于印度对于尼泊尔地缘影响力上升趋势明显，预计在2022年至2023年中、印对尼泊尔地缘影响力达到平衡。2）硬实力是中国对尼泊尔地缘影响力上升的关键因素；软实力和交流互动力是未来中国增强在尼泊尔地缘影响力的发展因素；地理环境是中国对尼泊尔地缘影响力发展的制约因素。3）未来中国将继续实施积极性合作战略，印度形成对中国遏制性防范战略，尼泊尔维持被动性中印平衡战略。  相似文献   

基于开放大数据的广州市中心城区职住平衡特征研究     

林勋媛  王广兴  胡月明 《热带地理》2020,40(2):254-265

以广州市中心城区为例,借助百度热力图、百度实时路况和百度地图POI数据,从中观层面多角度综合分析广州市中心城区就业与居住的空间分布关系。结果显示：1）工作时间段人口聚集的高值区整体呈带状分布,斑块较为细碎,但绝大部分集中在核心地带;人口主要高度集中于各区的商业繁华地段与交通线路周围。而休息时间段的高值区则相对集中分布,用地效率较高,表现出多中心的圈层结构;人口主要高度集中分布在传统的老城居住区和新开发的商业住宅区,与核心商圈相对错开。2）不管是在上班时段还是休息时段,人口聚集程度越高的地区,POI设施密度表现越显著;这意味着人口的聚集具有一定的选择性,主要集中在城市基础设施发展较完备的区域。3）广州市中心城区各街道的职住比介于0.73~1.54,职住相对平衡,区域之间差异较小。其中,分值较高的街道多分布于核心地带（主要集中在越秀区、荔湾区北部和天河区南部）,分值较低的街道多分布于核心地带的外围或边缘地区（主要在海珠区、荔湾区和白云区零散分布）。4）从城市交通响应上看,广州市中心城区工作日内早高峰的拥堵度大于晚高峰,但总体路况变化跨度不大,区内并没有出现特别严重的“潮汐通勤”现象。  相似文献   

长山群岛海洋渔业资源的平均营养级变化特征     

孙才志  曹威威  肖春柳 《海洋通报》2019,38(1):87-95

根据长山群岛 1965-2016 年渔业统计资料，分析长山群岛海域主要捕捞渔获物产量、平均营养级 （Mean trophic level， MTL）、渔业均衡指数 （Fishing in balance index，FiB） 年际变化，探讨其海洋渔业资源利用状况，并利用小波分析方法研究52年来渔获物 MTL 周期变化特征。研究表明： （1） 长山群岛捕捞产量、MTL 和 FiB 指数呈阶段性变化； （2） 长山群岛渔业资源开发经历初期开发、扩张捕捞、过度捕捞、资源破坏等四个阶段，渔业资源环境正在逐渐恶化；（3） 受人类捕捞活动影响，MTL 在 15~19 年和 24~34 年两种时间尺度下呈周期波动，30 年为第一主周期，17 年为第二主周期。长山群岛渔业资源破坏日益严重，未来几年平均营养级将呈下降趋势。为防止渔业资源进一步衰退，应加强捕捞活动管理力度，落实海洋渔业资源保护制度；完善预警机制，构建海洋渔业资源监测系统；同时应积极调整长山群岛渔业产业结构，提高资源产出效率.  相似文献   

冀北张麻井铀钼矿床黄铁矿化蚀变岩地球化学迁移特征及与成矿关系亲缘性的讨论          下载免费PDF全文

宋凯  巫建华  郭恒飞  郭国林 《高校地质学报》2019,25(3):352

张麻井铀钼矿床是中国北方最大的与火山岩有关的热液铀矿床，围岩蚀变广泛发育，其中黄铁矿化在该矿床分布虽 较为局限，但是与铀钼成矿关系密切。为了研究黄铁矿化蚀变与铀、钼成矿的亲缘关系，文章对张麻井的黄铁矿化蚀变岩 进行主、微量元素分析，并选择Yb作为不活动组分，使用质量平衡迁移计算方法， 利用Grant公式对其组分迁移进行定量 计算。岩石地球化学特征显示，黄铁矿化蚀变岩的TFeO含量极高，介于11.24%~24.57%之间(平均18.45%)，其中Fe2O3含量 10.78%~25.25% （平均18.64%）、FeO含量1.43%~1.90% （平均1.69%），Fe2O3/FeO比值平均为10.99，有可能受到后期氧 化。黄铁矿化蚀变岩在Isocon图解上等浓度线斜率小于1，表明整体发生了组分的带入，带入的主要组分为大量的TFeO （131倍），成矿元素Mo（884倍）、Pb（11倍）、U（4.9倍）、V（2.8倍）、Ta（0.44倍）、Cu（0.64倍），碱金属Na2O（0.45 倍），以及Cd（424倍）、Bi（13倍） 等；带出的主要组分有碱金属Li（-0.73）、K2O（-0.17），成矿元素Zn（-0.38）、Cr （-0.37），以及Eu（-0.58）、Sc（-0.25） 等。其中SiO2略微减少（-0.03），带入的Mo含量远大于U的含量，据此认为黄铁 矿化与钼成矿关系更为密切。  相似文献