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1.
Intraseasonal oscillation of the rainfall variability over Rwanda and evaluation of its subseasonal forecasting skill 下载免费PDF全文
非洲中东部地区的经济主要依靠自给农业支撑,该地区农业经济对降水的变化尤为敏感.本文以卢旺达为例,观测分析指出卢旺达的次季节降雨主要集中在10-25天;根据次季节尺度降水变率的单点相关方法,发现卢旺达的次季节降水变率和周围区域变化一致;进一步合成结果显示该地区次季节降水变率与异常西风有关,这可追溯到赤道地区西传的赤道Rossby波.最后,本文评估了当前动力模式ECMWF对 卢旺达地区(即非洲中东部)次季节降水变率的预报能力,发现EC模式在对该区域降水和相关风场指数的预报技巧都在18天左右,且预报技巧表现出一定的年际差异,这可能与热带太平洋的背景海温信号有关.该工作增进了当 前对非洲中东部地区的次季节降水变率和预测水平的认知,并且对该地区国家粮食安全和防灾减灾具有启示性意义. 相似文献
2.
Cristián Frêne Juan J. Armesto Freddy Véliz Fernando D. Alfaro Kathleen C. Weathers 《水文研究》2021,35(5):e14175
The variability of rainfall-dependent streamflow at catchment scale modulates many ecosystem processes in wet temperate forests. Runoff in small mountain catchments is characterized by a quick response to rainfall pulses which affects biogeochemical fluxes to all downstream systems. In wet-temperate climates, water erosion is the most important natural factor driving downstream soil and nutrient losses from upland ecosystems. Most hydrochemical studies have focused on water flux measurements at hourly scales, along with weekly or monthly samples for water chemistry. Here, we assessed how water and element flows from broad-leaved, evergreen forested catchments in southwestern South America, are influenced by different successional stages, quantifying runoff, sediment transport and nutrient fluxes during hourly rainfall events of different intensities. Hydrograph comparisons among different successional stages indicated that forested catchments differed in their responses to high intensity rainfall, with greater runoff in areas covered by secondary forests (SF), compared to old-growth forest cover (OG) and dense scrub vegetation (CH). Further, throughfall water was greatly nutrient enriched for all forest types. Suspended sediment loads varied between successional stages. SF catchments exported 455 kg of sediments per ha, followed by OG with 91 kg/ha and CH with 14 kg/ha, corresponding to 11 rainfall events measured from December 2013 to April 2014. Total nitrogen (TN) and phosphorus (TP) concentrations in stream water also varied with rainfall intensity. In seven rainfall events sampled during the study period, CH catchments exported less nutrients (46 kg/ha TN and 7 kg/ha TP) than SF catchments (718 kg/ha TN and 107 kg/ha TP), while OG catchments exported intermediate sediment loads (201 kg/ha TN and 23 kg/ha TP). Further, we found significant effects of successional stage attributes (vegetation structure and soil physical properties) and catchment morphometry on runoff and sediment concentrations, and greater nutrients retention in OG and CH catchments. We conclude that in these southern hemisphere, broad-leaved evergreen temperate forests, hydrological processes are driven by multiple interacting phenomena, including climate, vegetation, soils, topography, and disturbance history. 相似文献
3.
四川省青川县滑坡灾害群发,点多面广,区域滑坡灾害预警是有效防灾减灾的重要手段,预警模型是成功预警的核心。由于研究区滑坡诱发机理复杂、调查监测大数据及分析方法不足等原因,传统区域地质灾害预警模型存在预警精度有限、精细化不足等问题。文章在青川县地质灾害调查监测和降水监测成果集成整理与数据清洗基础上,构建了青川县区域滑坡灾害训练样本集,样本集包括地质环境、降雨等27个输入特征属性和1个输出特征属性,涵盖了青川县近9年(2010—2018年)全部样本,数量达1 826个(其中,正样本613个,负样本1 213个)。基于逻辑回归算法,对样本集进行5折交叉验证学习训练,采用贝叶斯优化算法进行模型优化,采用精确度、ROC曲线和AUC值等指标校验模型准确度和模型泛化能力。其中,ROC曲线也称为“受试者工作特征”曲线;AUC值表示ROC曲线下的面积。校验结果显示,基于逻辑回归算法的模型训练结果准确率和泛化能力均较好(准确率94.3%,AUC为0.980)。开展区域滑坡实际预警时,按训练样本特征属性格式,输入研究区各预警单元27个特征属性,调用预先学习训练好的模型,输出滑坡灾害发生概率,根据输出概率分段确定滑坡灾害预警等级。当输出概率P≥40%且P<60%时,发布黄色预警;当输出概率P≥60%且P<80%时,发布橙色预警;当输出概率P≥80%时,发布红色预警。 相似文献
4.
Numerous efforts have been made to understand stemflow dynamics under different types of vegetation at the inter-event scale, but few studies have explored the stemflow characteristics and corresponding influencing factors at the intra-event scale. An in-depth investigation of the inter- and intra-event dynamics of stemflow is important for understanding the ecohydrological processes in forest ecosystems. In this study, stemflow volume (FV), stemflow funnelling ratio (FR), and stemflow ratio (F%) from Quercus acutissima and Broussonetia papyrifera trees were measured at both inter- and intra-event scales in a subtropical deciduous forest, and the driving factors, including tree species and meteorological factors were further explored. Specifically, the FV, FR and F% of Q. acutissima (52.3 L, 47.2, 9.6%) were lower than those of B. papyrifera (85.1 L, 91.2, 12.4%). The effect of tree species on FV and F% was more obvious under low intensity rainfall types. At the inter-event scale, FV had a strong positive linear correlation with rainfall amount (GP) and event duration (DE) for both tree species, whereas FR and F% had a positive logarithmic correlation with GP and DE only under high-intensity, short-duration rainfall type. FR and F% were mainly affected by wind speed and the maximum 30-min rainfall intensity under low-intensity, long-duration rainfall type. At the intra-event scale, for both tree species, the mean lag time between the start of rainfall and stemflow was the shortest under high-intensity, short-duration rainfall type, while the mean duration and amount of stemflow after rain cessation were the greatest under high-amount, long-duration rainfall type. The relationship between stemflow intensity and rainfall intensity at the 5-min interval scale also depended greatly on rainfall type. These findings can help clarify stemflow dynamics and driving factors at both inter- and intra-event scales, and also provide abundant data and parameters for ecohydrological simulations in subtropical forests. 相似文献
5.
Taotao Zhang Yang Xiao Dongfang Liang Hongwu Tang Junzeng Xu Saiyu Yuan Nairu Wang Bin Luan 《水文研究》2021,35(5):e14152
Dissolved pollutants in stormwater are a main contributor to water pollution in urban environments. However, many existing transport models are semi-empirical and only consider one-dimensional flows, which limit their predictive capacity. Combining the shallow water and the advection–diffusion equations, a two-dimensional physically based model is developed for dissolved pollutant transport by adopting the concept of a ‘control layer’. A series of laboratory experiments has been conducted to validate the proposed model, taking into account the effects of buildings and intermittent rainfalls. The predictions are found to be in good agreement with experimental observations, which supports the assumption that the depth of the control layer is constant. Based on the validated model, a parametric study is conducted, focusing on the characteristics of the pollutant distribution and transport rate over the depth. The hyetograph, including the intensity, duration and intermittency, of rainfall event has a significant influence on the pollutant transport rates. The depth of the control layer, rainfall intensity, surface roughness and area length are dominant factors that affect the dissolved pollutant transport. Finally, several perspectives of the new pollutant transport model are discussed. This study contributes to an in-depth understanding of the dissolved pollutant transport processes on impermeable surfaces and urban stormwater management. 相似文献
6.
Zhiwei Xu James Irving Kyle Lindsay John Bradford Peimin Zhu Klaus Holliger 《Geophysical Prospecting》2020,68(2):678-689
Knowledge about the stochastic nature of heterogeneity in subsurface hydraulic properties is critical for aquifer characterization and the corresponding prediction of groundwater flow and contaminant transport. Whereas the vertical correlation structure of the heterogeneity is often well constrained by borehole information, the lateral correlation structure is generally unknown because the spacing between boreholes is too large to allow for its meaningful inference. There is, however, evidence to suggest that information on the lateral correlation structure may be extracted from the correlation statistics of the subsurface reflectivity structure imaged by surface-based ground-penetrating radar measurements. To date, case studies involving this approach have been limited to 2D profiles acquired at a single antenna centre frequency in areas with limited complementary information. As a result, the practical reliability of this methodology has been difficult to assess. Here, we extend previous work to 3D and consider reflection ground-penetrating radar data acquired using two antenna centre frequencies at the extensively explored and well-constrained Boise Hydrogeophysical Research Site. We find that the results obtained using the two ground-penetrating radar frequencies are consistent with each other, as well as with information from a number of other studies at the Boise Hydrogeophysical Research Site. In addition, contrary to previous 2D work, our results indicate that the surface-based reflection ground-penetrating radar data are not only sensitive to the aspect ratio of the underlying heterogeneity, but also, albeit to a lesser extent, to the so-called Hurst number, which is a key parameter characterizing the local variability of the fine-scale structure. 相似文献
7.
Carissa A. Raymond Luke A. McGuire Ann M. Youberg Dennis M. Staley Jason W. Kean 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2020,45(6):1349-1360
Wildfire significantly alters the hydrologic properties of a burned area, leading to increases in overland flow, erosion, and the potential for runoff-generated debris flows. The initiation of debris flows in recently burned areas is well characterized by rainfall intensity-duration (ID) thresholds. However, there is currently a paucity of data quantifying the rainfall intensities required to trigger post-wildfire debris flows, which limits our understanding of how and why rainfall ID thresholds vary in different climatic and geologic settings. In this study, we monitored debris-flow activity following the Pinal Fire in central Arizona, which differs from both a climatic and hydrogeomorphic perspective from other regions in the western United States where ID thresholds for post-wildfire debris flows are well established, namely the Transverse Ranges of southern California. Since the peak rainfall intensity within a rainstorm may exceed the rainfall intensity required to trigger a debris flow, the development of robust rainfall ID thresholds requires knowledge of the timing of debris flows within rainstorms. Existing post-wildfire debris-flow studies in Arizona only constrain the peak rainfall intensity within debris-flow-producing storms, which may far exceed the intensity that actually triggered the observed debris flow. In this study, we used pressure transducers within five burned drainage basins to constrain the timing of debris flows within rainstorms. Rainfall ID thresholds derived here from triggering rainfall intensities are, on average, 22 mm h−1 lower than ID thresholds derived under the assumption that the triggering intensity is equal to the maximum rainfall intensity recorded during a rainstorm. We then use a hydrologic model to demonstrate that the magnitude of the 15-min rainfall ID threshold at the Pinal Fire site is associated with the rainfall intensity required to exceed a recently proposed dimensionless discharge threshold for debris-flow initiation. Model results further suggest that previously observed differences in regional ID thresholds between Arizona and the San Gabriel Mountains of southern California may be attributed, in large part, to differences in the hydraulic properties of burned soils. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
8.
Carolina Massmann 《水文研究》2020,34(1):4-20
Investigating the performance that can be achieved with different hydrological models across catchments with varying characteristics is a requirement for identifying an adequate model for any catchment, gauged or ungauged, just based on information about its climate and catchment properties. As parameter uncertainty increases with the number of model parameters, it is important not only to identify a model achieving good results but also to aim at the simplest model still able to provide acceptable results. The main objective of this study is to identify the climate and catchment properties determining the minimal required complexity of a hydrological model. As previous studies indicate that the required model complexity varies with the temporal scale, the study considers the performance at the daily, monthly, and annual timescales. In agreement with previous studies, the results show that catchments located in arid areas tend to be more difficult to model. They therefore require more complex models for achieving an acceptable performance. For determining which other factors influence model performance, an analysis was carried out for four catchment groups (snowy, arid, and eastern and western catchments). The results show that the baseflow and aridity indices are the most consistent predictors of model performance across catchment groups and timescales. Both properties are negatively correlated with model performance. Other relevant predictors are the fraction of snow in the annual precipitation (negative correlation with model performance), soil depth (negative correlation with model performance), and some other soil properties. It was observed that the sign of the correlation between the catchment characteristics and model performance varies between clusters in some cases, stressing the difficulties encountered in large sample analyses. Regarding the impact of the timescale, the study confirmed previous results indicating that more complex models are needed for shorter timescales. 相似文献
9.
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