Describing alpine lake influence on stream network temperatures: A statistical modelling approach     

Samuel P. Carlson  Geoffrey C. Poole 《水文研究》2021,35(3):e14072

Systematic variations in atmospheric heat exchange, surface residence time, and groundwater influx across montane stream networks commonly produce an increasing stream temperature trend with decreasing elevation. However, complex stream temperature profiles that differ from this common longitudinal trend also exist, suggesting that stream temperatures may be influenced by complex interactions among hydrologic and atmospheric processes. Lakes within stream networks form one potential source of temperature profile complexity due to the spatially variable contribution of lake-sourced water to stream flow. We investigated temperature profile complexity in a multi-season stream temperature dataset collected across a montane stream network containing many alpine lakes. This investigation was performed by making comparisons between multiple statistical models that used different combinations of stream and lake characteristics to represent specific hypotheses for the controls on stream temperature. The compared models included a set of models which used a topographically derived estimate of the hydrologic influence of lakes to separate and quantify the effects of stream elevation and lake source-water contributions to longitudinal stream temperature patterns. This source-water mixing model provided a parsimonious explanation for complex stream-network temperature patterns in the summer and autumn, and this approach may be further applicable to other systems where stream temperatures are influenced by multiple water sources. Simpler models that discounted lake effects were more optimal during the winter and spring, suggesting that complex patterns in stream temperature profiles may emerge and subside temporally, across seasons, in response to diversity of water temperatures from different sources.  相似文献   

利用光变曲线估计猎鹰九号火箭末级的旋转状态研究     

苏向泽  汤儒峰  李荣旺  李语强 《天文研究与技术》2021,(2):203-212

光度观测是地基观测空间目标的主要手段之一,利用光度信息能够估计空间目标的相关特征信息。为了更好地了解空间目标的旋转状态,选取具有代表性的猎鹰九号火箭末级作为研究对象,由其光变信息研究旋转状态。首先利用云南天文台1.2 m光学望远镜获取猎鹰九号火箭末级的光度数据,再对目标星等进行斜距归一化,得到目标光变信息并分析目标星等随时间变化的曲线,估计大致的旋转周期,再由相位离散最小化方法计算会合周期。根据太阳、目标和测站之间的位置关系、惯性主轴指向、旋转轴指向、初始相位等因素,采用姿态旋转矩阵计算理论星等,利用最小二乘原则确定惯性主轴方向及初相角度、旋转轴指向。最后给出了猎鹰九号火箭末级的旋转周期、会合周期以及旋转轴指向等参数,为后续开展其他空间目标光度信息研究提供参考。  相似文献   

Numerical Simulation of Magnetic Reconnection Driven by the Laser Helmholtz Capacitor-coil Targets     

XU Shan-shan  MEI Zhi-xing  ZHONG Jia-yong  LIN Jun 《Chinese Astronomy and Astrophysics》2021,45(2):131-146

  相似文献   

Impact of the sampling duration on the uncertainty of averaged velocity measurements with acoustic instruments     

Muste Marian  Jongmin Kim  Dongsu Kim 《水文研究》2021,35(4):e14125

Average velocity in streams is a key variable for the analysis and modelling of hydrological and hydraulic processes underpinning water resources science and practice. The present study evaluates the impact of the sampling duration on the quality of average velocity measurements acquired with contemporary instruments such as Acoustic Doppler Velocimeters (ADV) an Acoustic Doppler Current Profilers (ADCP). The evaluation combines considerations on turbulent flows and principles and configurations of acoustic instruments with practical experience in conducting customized analysis for uncertainty analysis purposes. The study sheds new insights on the spatial and temporal variability of the uncertainty in the measurement of average velocities due to variable sampling durations acting in isolation from other sources of uncertainties. Sampling durations of 90 and 150 s are found sufficient for ADV and ADCP, respectively, to obtain reliable average velocities in a flow affected only by natural turbulence and instrument noise. Larger sampling durations are needed for measurements in most of the natural streams exposed to additional sources of data variability.  相似文献   

Analytical investigation of the exact groundwater divide between rivers beyond the Dupuit–Forchheimer approximation     

Ruoyi Li  Xu-Sheng Wang 《水文研究》2021,35(2):e14036

The groundwater divide is a key feature of river basins and significantly influenced by subsurface hydrological processes. For an unconfined aquifer between two parallel rivers or ditches, it has long been defined as the top of the water table based on the Dupuit–Forchheimer approximation. However, the exact groundwater divide is subject to the interface between two local flow systems transporting groundwater to rivers from the infiltration recharge. This study contributes a new analytical model for two-dimensional groundwater flow between rivers of different water levels. The flownet is delineated in the model to identify groundwater flow systems and the exact groundwater divide. Formulas with two dimensionless parameters are derived to determine the distributed hydraulic head, the top of the water table and the groundwater divide. The locations of the groundwater divide and the top of the water table are not the same. The distance between them in horizontal can reach up to 8.9% of the distance between rivers. Numerical verifications indicate that simplifications in the analytical model do not significantly cause misestimates in the location of the groundwater divide. In contrast, the Dupuit–Forchheimer approximation yields an incorrect water table shape. The new analytical model is applied to investigate groundwater divides in the Loess Plateau, China, with a Monte Carlo simulation process taking into account the uncertainties in the parameters.  相似文献   

基于NPSVM模型的超新星识别方法          下载免费PDF全文

王精东  陈星星  梁吴颖  黄泽锋  全少武  沈锦泫  石雄辉 《天文学报》2021,62(2):15-53

巡天观测与高能物理、黑洞天文等领域均有密切的联系.基于星系-超新星二分类问题,研究光谱数据预处理,结合余弦相似度改善PCA(Principal Component Analysis)光谱分解特征提取方法,用SDSS(the Sloan Digital Sky Survey)、WISeREP(the Weizmann Interactive Supernova data REPository)组成的5620条光谱数据集训练支持向量机,可以得到0.498%泛化误差的识别模型和新样本分类概率.使用Neyman-Pearson决策方法建立NPSVM(Neyman-Pearson Support Vector Machine)模型可进一步降低超新星的漏判率.  相似文献   

基于双谱滤波的综合脉冲星时算法研究          下载免费PDF全文

周庆勇  魏子卿  张华  刘思伟  孙鹏飞  张奋  姜坤  刘晓刚  李奎 《天文学报》2021,62(2):19-95

毫秒脉冲星的自转频率非常稳定,提供了一种独立的基于遥远自然天体并能持续数百万乃至数十亿年的时间基准,具有稳定性强、运行时间长、服务范围广等特点.为了减弱毫秒脉冲星计时观测中各种高斯噪声对脉冲星时的影响,研究了一种基于双谱滤波的综合脉冲星时构建算法,处理分析了国际脉冲星计时阵(International Pul-sar Timing Array,IPTA)最新发布的4颗毫秒脉冲星(PSR J0437-4715、J0613-0200、J1713+0747和J1909-3744)的观测数据,分析了不同时间尺度综合脉冲星时的稳定性,并与构成国际原子时(International Atomic Time,TAI)的4家授时单位原子钟稳定性进行了比较.结果表明:双谱滤波算法能够较好地抑制观测噪声,提高综合脉冲星时的稳定性.相比于经典加权算法,综合脉冲星时1 yr、10 yr稳定度从7.77×10^-14、8.56×10^-16分别提高到1.50×10^-14、3.50×10^-16,单脉冲星时稳定性的提升也类似.同时发现,综合脉冲星时稳定性在5 yr及以上时间尺度上优于原子钟稳定性,可用于改善当前原子时的长期稳定性.  相似文献   

一种横观各向同性岩体蠕变模型     

李列列  管俊峰  肖明砾  刘海朝  唐克东 《岩土力学》2020,41(9):2922-2930

层状岩体由于层理面或者结构面的存在，在力学上具有横观各向同性的特点，现有的各向同性蠕变模型难以全面反映横观各向同性岩体的蠕变力学特性。为构建能够反映横观各向同性岩体的三维蠕变模型，以能反映瞬时应变、减速蠕变和稳态蠕变特征的黏弹性Burgers模型为基础，基于常泊松比假定，在三维各向同性蠕变本构方程的基础上，按照算子替换的方法，将横观各向同性柔度矩阵代替各向同性柔度矩阵，并考虑了平行和垂直层理方向岩体蠕变力学行为的差异性，推导了横观各向同性岩体的三维蠕变本构方程。根据本构方程的特点，提出了根据平行和垂直方向岩体蠕变试验结果进行三维蠕变本构模型中蠕变参数的辨识方法。将提出的模型应用于三轴蠕变试验参数辨识，从而获得了一套完整的三维蠕变参数，并与试验结果进行对比分析，从而验证了所提模型与方法的合理性和有效性。进一步，指出了传统蠕变试验设计方案的局限性，给出了横观各向同性材料蠕变试验设计建议。研究成果为研究岩体三维蠕变机制提供了新思路，可对岩体蠕变试验设计提供相应的科研支撑。  相似文献   

基于小波变换与神经网络的石羊河流域夏季地温预测模型研究   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

贾东于  李开明  聂晓英  袁春霞  李清峰  高福元 《冰川冻土》2020,42(2):412-422

地温变化在气候反馈效应中起着重要作用， 理解地温及其与影响因素之间的时空关系对预测全球温度变化至关重要。利用1998 - 2017年石羊河流域的逐日常规气象观测资料， 采用小波分析结合BP（Back Propagation）神经网络构建了石羊河流域夏季地温预报模型， 结果表明： 日平均地温预测效果在不同站点均为最佳， 其中预测值和观测值的相关系数均大于0.87， 3 ℃以内的预测概率均大于84%。其中， 民勤地区地温预测效果最好， 预测值和观测值的相关系数达到0.91， 3 ℃以内的预测概率达到86%。日最高地温的预测值与观测值的相关系数高于0.8， 但误差平方和、 标准差较大。永昌地区日最高地温的模拟效果最好， 3 ℃以内的预测概率达到83%。日最低地温的预测与观测值的平均相关系数高于0.66， 3 ℃以内的预报概率高于83%， 但预测值略低。其中， 武威地区日最低地温的预测效果最好， 预测值与观测值的相关系数为0.72， 3 ℃以内的预测概率达到94%。研究成果可为有效弥补干旱、 半干旱区地温观测资料缺失和探讨其与局地气候的关系提供一些参考。  相似文献   

2020年1月19日新疆伽师MS6.4地震InSAR同震形变场特征及发震构造初步探讨     

温少妍  李成龙  李金 《内陆地震》2020,(1):1-9

基于Sentinel-1 SAR升、降影像,利用D-InSAR技术获取新疆伽师M S6.4地震的同震形变场,结果表明,本次地震引起的同震形变场整体呈近椭圆状分布,形变区东西长约66 km,南北宽约40 km,整个形变场由南部隆升区和北部沉降区组成,南部最大隆升量约7 cm,北部最大沉降量约3 cm。本次地震发生在块体俯冲界面处的低倾角逆冲推覆构造带上,隆升和沉降两个中心均位于逆冲推覆体的上盘,形变主要以隆升形变为主,符合低倾角逆断层中强震的变形特征。在沉降区与隆升区之间干涉条纹连续分布,未出现表征地表破裂位置的空间失相关带,表明地震未引起明显的地表破裂。结合震源机制、余震精定位及区域构造特征,初步推断认为伽师地震的发震构造可能为柯坪塔格推覆构造前缘的N倾的柯坪断裂。  相似文献