辽宁省积雪对自动气象站观测地气温差的影响     

朱玲  顾正强  龚强  晁华  李杨  徐红  周晓宇  沈历都  蔺娜 《冰川冻土》2019,41(2):293-303

利用1971—2016年辽宁省61个气象站气温、地表温度、积雪日数和积雪深度资料，分析了积雪的保温作用及其对地气温差的影响。结果表明：更换自动站前后地表温度观测方式的差异导致地气温差显著增大，地气温差的增大程度受所在区域积雪日数、积雪深度的影响显著。在积雪期较长、积雪较厚的地区，积雪引起反照率增大，使得雪面温度降低，导致雪气温差减小，而雪的保温作用使得地气温差显著增大。因此，更换自动站前地（雪）气温差与积雪日数呈显著负相关，而更换自动站后地气温差与积雪日数呈显著正相关。各台站之间地气温差随积雪深度的变化系数差异较大，为0.045~0.858 ℃?cm^-1，在年平均积雪日数＜40 d、年平均极端积雪深度＜10 cm的区域，积雪的保温作用随积雪深度增大而显著增大；在年平均积雪日数＞40 d、年平均极端积雪深度＞10 cm的区域，10 cm以下的积雪对土壤保温作用随积雪深度增大显著，当积雪深度＞10 cm后，其保温作用随积雪深度增大的幅度明显减小。  相似文献   

“6·23”江苏阜宁EF4级龙卷超级单体风暴中尺度结构研究   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文

周海光 《地球物理学报》2018,61(9):3617-3639

2016年6月23日14—15时，江苏省阜宁县突遭"增强藤田"4级龙卷、强风、短时强降水和冰雹等强对流天气，致使99人罹难，800多人受伤，属极其罕见的极端天气事件.本文利用加密自动站数据、探空数据、单部雷达观测数据以及双多普勒雷达三维风场反演数据，研究了此次龙卷发生的天气背景、龙卷超级单体的三维结构及其演变特征.研究表明：（1）龙卷发生期间，阜宁处于地面暖湿舌内、地面有γ中尺度气旋和辐合线；环境大气抬升凝结高度很低、中低层有很强的水平风的垂直切变；这有利于龙卷的生成.（2）此次龙卷超级单体左移风暴的低层有钩状回波和入流缺口，有界弱回波区位于垂直剖面中低层、悬垂回波位于风暴前部高层.（3）龙卷发生前，风暴质心高度、最大反射率因子高度和风暴回波顶高度均持续增加，风暴垂直累积液态含水量激增；龙卷发生在上述参数的数值首次同时减小时.（4）双多普勒雷达反演的三维风场揭示，超级单体形成之前的对流风暴内部中低层已经有中尺度气旋形成，中尺度气旋伴随着超级单体的生成、发展和强化的各个阶段.中尺度气旋位于钩状回波顶端、其南端有反气旋，此涡旋偶对于中层动量下传、龙卷生成、发展、加强和触地具有重要作用.  相似文献   

地面稠密观测资料在强对流天气监测预警中的研究进展     

李佩芝  周长春  华维 《云南地理环境研究》2020,(1):53-58

综述国内外数篇论文,从强对流天气监测、预报预警、模式同化3个方面总结分析了近年来地面稠密观测资料的应用与优劣之处。综述表明:地面加密自动站、风廓线雷达、地基GPS、雨滴谱仪等多种观测仪器组成的地面稠密观测网具有时间尺度密集、覆盖面积广泛、能捕捉较多细微变化的优势,通过该观测网所得数据总结出的一系列指示性指标在强对流监测预警中具有重要的指示意义。但因中国地形天气情况复杂多变、数据缺失、仪器造价昂贵等问题,导致该观测网所得指示性指标不能适用于中国全境,应根据该观测网数据分析总结适应本地的预报指标。  相似文献   

基于大数据分析下的气候模型     

张宸豪  冯曦  冯卫兵  刘涛  丁坤 《海洋科学》2020,44(10):1-11

为研究全球变暖与极寒天气间的关系，对加拿大13个省代表性测站10年的观测数据进行时空变化趋势分析，采用经验正交函数（EOF）寻找海洋表面温度历史数据的变化规律。另外利用BP神经网络建立了年平均温度、日降水量与地球吸热、散热、海表面温度、当地纬度间的关系，预测未来25年气候的变化，并建立了“极寒天气”与气候变化的关系模型。研究表明：高纬度地区温度、降水量普遍较低，同经度地区的温度差异较小且降水量变化不大；加拿大地区温度呈周期性变化，符合北半球的季节变化特征；北大西洋的东部与其他海洋的温度是反相关的，西太平洋南北回归线附近的海洋表面温度升高；“极寒天气”出现频率与气候变化有一定关系，局地极寒现象与全球变暖的大趋势并不矛盾。本研究为人们认识和理解“全球变暖”提供了一个新的思路。  相似文献   

Ensemble modelling of ice cover for a reservoir affected by pumped‐storage operation and climate change     

Ulrike Gabriele Kobler  Martin Schmid 《水文研究》2019,33(20):2676-2690

Ensemble modelling was used to assess the robustness of projected impacts of pumped‐storage (PS) operation and climate change on reservoir ice cover. To this end, three one‐dimensional and a two‐dimensional laterally averaged hydrodynamic model were set up. For the latter, the strength of the impacts with increasing distance from the dam was also investigated. Climate change effects were simulated by forcing the models with 150 years of synthetic meteorological time series created with a weather generator based on available air temperature scenarios for Switzerland. Future climate by the end of the 21^st century was projected to shorten the ice‐covered period by ~2 months and decrease ice thicknesses by ~13 cm. Under current climate conditions, the ice cover would already be affected by extended PS operation. For example, the average probability of ice coverage on a specific day was projected to decrease by ~13% for current climate and could further be reduced from ~45% to ~10% for future climate. Overall, the results of all models were consistent. Although the number of winters without ice cover was projected to increase for all one‐dimensional models, studying individual segments of the two‐dimensional model showed that the impact was pronounced for segments close to the PS intake/outlet. In summary, the reservoir's ice cover is expected to partially vanish with higher probability of open water conditions closer to the PS intake/outlet.  相似文献   

飑线对定点地形变观测的影响特征与机理——以陕西关中盆地为例     

杨小林  危自根  杨锦玲  王党席 《中国地震》2019,35(3):465-475

2013年7月31日～8月1日陕西关中盆地爆发了一次强飑线灾害性天气过程,为揭示此次飑线生命史期间对定点地形变观测的影响特征与机理,本文结合多普勒天气雷达和气象资料,系统分析了关中盆地内4个地形变观测数据。结果表明:(1)飑线过境时的短时气压突变是造成定点地形变的主要原因,引起最大的地倾斜和地应变分别达9.70×10~(-3″)和21.02×10~(-9);(2)气压变幅与地形变的弹性响应量具有较好的线性关系,二者持续时间较一致,为2～4h,其中,钻孔体应变的动态气压系数达4.04×10~(-9)/h Pa;(3)宝鸡、乾陵和华阴台对飑线的响应能力较好,西安台则较差;(4)除水管仪外,垂直摆、洞体应变和钻孔体应变等对飑线的响应均较为灵敏。上述结果有助于合理识别和科学推定飑线所导致定点地形变异常变化的物理本质,进而减少实际业务中的误判;同时,还能为定点地形变观测台站的科学选址、仪器的优化布设及不同空间尺度大气负荷模型的实证等提供重要的参考依据。  相似文献   

Multi-band Solar Full-disk Extreme Ultraviolet Imager     

PENG Ji-long  FENG Tao-jun  SHI En-tao  LI Lin  YU Qian  ZHANG Kai  NIE Xiang-yu  MA Zi-liang 《Chinese Astronomy and Astrophysics》2019,43(3):444-456

Solar Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) imaging observation is an important measure for the researches of solar activities and coronal plasma physics. But the traditional EUV imager and spectrograph can hardly achieve simultaneously the high spectral resolution and wide field-of-view of solar imaging. This paper has designed a new type of solar EUV multi-band imager, by adopting a kind of slitless grating and grazing incidence structure, it can realize the solar full-disk imaging of high spectral and spatial resolution. The field-of-view of the imager can be as broad as 47′. The spectral resolution is 2×10^?3nm per pixel, and the spatial resolution is 1.4′ per pixel. The temporal resolution of the solar full-disk is better than 60 s. The analysis of the solar full-disk spectral image and system response shows that the imager can observe the morphological evolutions of various solar activities, and can provide more comprehensive data for the researches of solar physics and space weather forecast.  相似文献   

基于广义回归神经网络的行星际/太阳风参数和地磁指数的紫外极光强度建模          下载免费PDF全文

胡泽骏  韩冰  连慧芳 《地球物理学报》2020,63(5):1738-1750

极光卵极光强度的空间分布是太阳风-磁层-电离层能量耦合过程的重要表现,并且随着空间环境参数和地磁指数的变化而变化,是空间天气的重要指示器.建立合适的极光强度模型对亚暴的预测以及磁层动力学的研究具有重要意义.本文基于Polar卫星的紫外极光成像仪(Ultraviolet Imager,UVI)数据,采用两种不同的极光强度表征方法,即曲线拟合方法(从UVI图像数据中提取极光强度沿磁余纬方向上的曲线特征,Curve Feature along the Magnetic Co-latitude Direction of the Auroral Intensity,CFMCD_AI)和网格化方法(从UVI图像数据中提取极光强度的网格化特征,Gridding Feature of the Auroral Intensity,GF_AI),来构造极区极光强度特征数据库.然后,利用该数据库,采用广义回归神经网络(Generalized Regression Neural Network,GRNN)构建了以行星际/太阳风参数(行星际磁场三分量、太阳风速度和密度)和地磁指数(AE指数)为输入参数的两种极光强度预测模型(GRNN_CFMCD_AI模型和GRNN_GF_AI模型).利用图像质量评价指数结构相似度(structure similarity,SSIM)作为极光强度模型预测结果和对应的UVI图像的相似性评价标准(完全相似为1,不相似为0,一般认为SSIM大于0.5是具有较好的相似性),对两种极光强度模型进行了性能评价.结果显示,GRNN_GF_AI模型预测结果对应的SSIM值范围为0.36～0.77,均值为0.54,性能优于GRNN_CFMCD_AI模型的.  相似文献   

Dating of rockfall damage in trees yields insights into meteorological triggers of process activity in the French Alps     

R. Mainieri  C. Corona  J. Chartoire  N. Eckert  J. Lopez-Saez  M. Stoffel  F. Bourrier 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2020,45(10):2235-2250

Rockfall release is a rather unpredictable process. As a result, the occurrence of rockfall often threatens humans and (infra)structures. The assessment of potential drivers of rockfall activity therefore remains a major challenge, even if the relative influence of rainfall, snowmelt, or freeze–thaw cycles has long been identified in short-term monitoring projects. In the absence of longer-term assessments of rockfall triggers and possible changes thereof, our knowledge of rockfall dynamics remains still lacunary as a result of the persisting scarcity of exhaustive and precise rockfall databases. Over the last decades, several studies have employed growth disturbances (GDs) in tree-ring series to reconstruct rockfall activity. Paradoxically, these series were only rarely compared to meteorological records. In this study, we capitalize on the homogeneity of a centennial-old reforestation plot to develop two reconstructions – R1 including only growth suppressions, and R2 based on injuries – with limited biases related to decreasing sample size and changes in exposed diameters back in time. By doing so, our study also and quite clearly highlights the large potential that protection forests have in terms of yielding reliable, multidecadal rockfall reconstructions. From a methodological perspective, we find no synchronicity between R1 and R2, as well as an absence of meteorological controls on rockfall processes in R1. This observation pleads for a careful selection of GDs in future reconstructions. In terms of process dynamics, we demonstrate that summer intense rainfall events (>10 mm day⁻¹) are the main drivers for rockfall activity at our study site. Despite the stringency of our detection procedure, correlations between rockfall activity and meteorological variables remain comparable to those reported in previous studies, as a result of the complexity and multiplicity of triggering factors. We therefore call for a more systematic coupling of tree-ring analysis with rockfall and microclimatic monitoring in future studies. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Cartograms for Use in Forecasting Weather-Driven Natural Hazards     

Florian Pappenberger  Hannah L. Cloke  Calum A. Baugh 《The Cartographic journal》2019,56(2):134-145

This paper evaluates the potential of using cartograms for visualizing and interpreting forecasts of weather-driven natural hazards in the context of global weather forecasting and early warning systems. The use of cartograms is intended to supplement traditional cartographic representations of the hazards in order to highlight the severity of an upcoming event. Cartogrammetric transformations are applied to forecasts of floods, heatwaves, windstorms and snowstorms taken from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) forecast archive. Key cartogram design principles in standard weather forecast visualization are tested. Optimal cartogram transformation is found to be dependent on geographical features (such as coastlines) and forecast features (such as snowstorm intensity). For highly spatially autocorrelated weather variables used in analysing several upcoming natural hazards such as 2m temperature anomaly, the visualization of the distortion provides a promising addition to standard forecast visualizations for highlighting upcoming weather-driven natural hazards.  相似文献