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1.
Jacques Mourey Ludovic Ravanel Christophe Lambiel Joël Strecker Mattia Piccardi 《Norsk geografisk tidsskrift. Norwegian journal of geography》2019,73(4):215-228
ABSTRACTIn the European Alps, high mountain environments are subject to major impacts resulting from climate change, which strongly affect human activities such as mountaineering. The purpose of the study was to examine changes in access routes to 30 high mountain huts in the Western Alps since the 1990s. Data were derived from the use of two different methods, geo-historical studies and a questionnaire, and were used to identify both the climate-related processes affecting the climbing routes and the strategies implemented by public entities, Alpine clubs, guide companies, and hut keepers to maintain acceptable safety and technical conditions. The case studies revealed issues affecting three access routes and the results from the questionnaire showed that the main processes affecting access routes were loss of ice thickness and retreat from the front of the glaciated areas. Commonly, in situ equipment was installed to facilitate access for mountaineers and/or a part of a route was relocated to a safer area. The authors conclude that in most cases, the measures were effective but they were limited by financial, ethical and legal issues, especially in protected or classified areas that could jeopardise their durability and effectiveness. 相似文献
2.
以山洪灾害风险评价的多准则决策模型、最大熵模型、信息量模型三种常见模型为研究对象,选取河西走廊和张掖市为地理区划(大中)、市域(小)空间尺度研究区,构建山洪灾害风险评价指标体系,分别完成基于三种模型的两种空间尺度的山洪灾害风险评价制图,基于甘肃省地质灾害调查与区划报告数据从模型验证、空间自相关、精度对比和尺度效应等角度对比分析三个模型应用于不同空间尺度的适应性,并给出优选模型。结果表明:最大熵模型是河西走廊(地理区划)空间尺度上山洪灾害风险评价的优选模型;多准则决策模型不适用于张掖市(市域)空间尺度评价,且三个模型运行结果均没有河西走廊(地理区划)空间尺度上表现良好;三个模型的尺度效应明显,在地理区划空间尺度上应用较良好,缩小至市域空间尺度上模拟结果误差增大;不同空间尺度上,最大熵模型均优于多准则决策模型和信息量模型,适用于地理区划(大中)、市域(小)空间尺度的山洪灾害风险评价。 相似文献
3.
Flow resistance in mountain streams is important for assessing flooding hazard and quantifying sediment transport and bedrock incision in upland landscapes. In such settings, flow resistance is sensitive to grain-scale roughness, which has traditionally been characterized by particle size distributions derived from laborious point counts of streambed sediment. Developing a general framework for rapid quantification of resistance in mountain streams is still a challenge. Here we present a semi-automated workflow that combines millimeter- to centimeter-scale structure-from-motion (SfM) photogrammetry surveys of bed topography and computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations to better evaluate surface roughness and rapidly quantify flow resistance in mountain streams. The workflow was applied to three field sites of gravel, cobble, and boulder-bedded channels with a wide range of grain size, sorting, and shape. Large-eddy simulations with body-fitted meshes generated from SfM photogrammetry-derived surfaces were performed to quantify flow resistance. The analysis of bed microtopography using a second-order structure function identified three scaling regimes that corresponded to important roughness length scales and surface complexity contributing to flow resistance. The standard deviation σz of detrended streambed elevation normalized by water depth, as a proxy for the vertical roughness length scale, emerges as the primary control on flow resistance and is furthermore tied to the characteristic length scale of rough surface-generated vortices. Horizontal length scales and surface complexity are secondary controls on flow resistance. A new resistance predictor linking water depth and vertical roughness scale, i.e. H/σz, is proposed based on the comparison between σz and the characteristic length scale of vortex shedding. In addition, representing streambeds using digital elevation models (DEM) is appropriate for well-sorted streambeds, but not for poorly sorted ones under shallow and medium flow depth conditions due to the missing local overhanging features captured by fully 3D meshes which modulate local pressure gradient and thus bulk flow separation and pressure distribution. An appraisal of the mesh resolution effect on flow resistance shows that the SfM photogrammetry data resolution and the optimal CFD mesh size should be about 1/7 to 1/14 of the standard deviation of bed elevation. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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Large rock slope failures play a pivotal role in long-term landscape evolution and are a major concern in land use planning and hazard aspects. While the failure phase and the time immediately prior to failure are increasingly well studied, the nature of the preparation phase remains enigmatic. This knowledge gap is due, to a large degree, to difficulties associated with instrumenting high mountain terrain and the local nature of classic monitoring methods, which does not allow integral observation of large rock volumes. Here, we analyse data from a small network of up to seven seismic sensors installed during July–October 2018 (with 43 days of data loss) at the summit of the Hochvogel, a 2592 m high Alpine peak. We develop proxy time series indicative of cyclic and progressive changes of the summit. Modal analysis, horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio data and end-member modelling analysis reveal diurnal cycles of increasing and decreasing coupling stiffness of a 260,000 m3 large, instable rock volume, due to thermal forcing. Relative seismic wave velocity changes also indicate diurnal accumulation and release of stress within the rock mass. At longer time scales, there is a systematic superimposed pattern of stress increased over multiple days and episodic stress release within a few days, expressed in an increased emission of short seismic pulses indicative of rock cracking. Our data provide essential first order information on the development of large-scale slope instabilities towards catastrophic failure. © 2020 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. 相似文献
6.
Spatio‐temporal tracer variability in the glacier melt end‐member — How does it affect hydrograph separation results? 下载免费PDF全文
Geochemical and isotopic tracers were often used in mixing models to estimate glacier melt contributions to streamflow, whereas the spatio‐temporal variability in the glacier melt tracer signature and its influence on tracer‐based hydrograph separation results received less attention. We present novel tracer data from a high‐elevation catchment (17 km2, glacierized area: 34%) in the Oetztal Alps (Austria) and investigated the spatial, as well as the subdaily to monthly tracer variability of supraglacial meltwater and the temporal tracer variability of winter baseflow to infer groundwater dynamics. The streamflow tracer variability during winter baseflow conditions was small, and the glacier melt tracer variation was higher, especially at the end of the ablation period. We applied a three‐component mixing model with electrical conductivity and oxygen‐18. Hydrograph separation (groundwater, glacier melt, and rain) was performed for 6 single glacier melt‐induced days (i.e., 6 events) during the ablation period 2016 (July to September). Median fractions (±uncertainty) of groundwater, glacier melt, and rain for the events were estimated at 49±2%, 35±11%, and 16±11%, respectively. Minimum and maximum glacier melt fractions at the subdaily scale ranged between 2±5% and 76±11%, respectively. A sensitivity analysis showed that the intraseasonal glacier melt tracer variability had a marked effect on the estimated glacier melt contribution during events with large glacier melt fractions of streamflow. Intra‐daily and spatial variation of the glacier melt tracer signature played a negligible role in applying the mixing model. The results of this study (a) show the necessity to apply a multiple sampling approach in order to characterize the glacier melt end‐member and (b) reveal the importance of groundwater and rainfall–runoff dynamics in catchments with a glacial flow regime. 相似文献
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8.
Sarah Praskievicz 《自然地理学》2018,39(2):99-117
One of the challenges in using general circulation model (GCM) output is the need to downscale beyond the model’s coarse spatial grid for use in hydrologic modeling of climate-change impacts. In mountainous terrain, using elevation as a primary control on temperature and precipitation at the local scale provides the potential for topographic variables to be used to adjust climate-model output. Here, local topographic lapse rates (LTLR) were estimated from gridded climate data for the Pacific Northwest of the United States and used to downscale GCM output. Skill scores were calculated for the LTLR-downscaled climate-model output relative to an existing set of model output downscaled using the established statistical downscaling technique of localized constructed analogs (LOCA). The results indicate that the LTLR method performs well in the mountainous study region relative to the LOCA method. LTLR downscaling offers a promising method for downscaling climate-model output in regions in which elevation strongly controls climate, particularly for studying impacts of future climate change on water resources. 相似文献
9.
基于支持向量机的喀斯特山区土壤环境质量评价——以贵州北部一茶叶园区为例 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
以贵州北部一茶叶园区80个表层土壤样品为研究对象,对其Hg、As、Cd、Pb、Cr和Cu含量进行测定,在MATLAB中应用支持向量机构建土壤环境质量评价模型,并与模糊综合评价法和内梅罗综合污染指数法的评价结果对比分析,探究支持向量机模型在喀斯特山区土壤环境质量评价中的适用性,其结果表明:研究区土壤质量Ⅰ类与Ⅱ类样品比例为33∶7,土壤环境质量大多数为I类;支持向量机方法的评价结果与模糊综合评价法和内梅罗综合污染指数法结果的相同率分别达到82.5%和80.0%,并分析结果有差异的样品,发现支持向量机评价结果更符合实际情况,这说明该模型适用于土壤环境质量的评价。 相似文献
10.
了解崩塌活动史与区域气候变化之间的关系对于掌握区域山地灾害形成规律,预测未来发展趋势具有非常重要的作用。利用树木地貌法可以准确掌握山地灾害发生频率,并为定量分析气候变化对山地灾害发生发展趋势提供支撑。本文以川东华蓥山石林景区一大型崩塌为研究对象,通过杉木树木年轮、降水和气温数据对该崩塌活动时间进行分析。结果表明:该崩塌可能共有四个活动年份,2015年为大规模活动年份,2008年、2012年和2016年为小规模活动年份,崩塌活动的季节主要集中在早材期间(4月—9月)。基于滚石冲击树干产生的愈伤组织和标准木年轮对比表明:树木在受到滚石冲击后,都表现为生长抑制,且树木年轮宽度要滞后滚石活动1年。参考树木与干扰树木年轮宽度和月降雨量没有相关性,但干扰树木年轮与月平均气温(4月—9月)呈负相关关系。本研究结果可以为研究区内山地灾害活动史与气候变化关系提供支撑,尤其是为研究区域降雨诱发的崩塌活动规律提供借鉴。 相似文献