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1.
Wildfire significantly alters the hydrologic properties of a burned area, leading to increases in overland flow, erosion, and the potential for runoff-generated debris flows. The initiation of debris flows in recently burned areas is well characterized by rainfall intensity-duration (ID) thresholds. However, there is currently a paucity of data quantifying the rainfall intensities required to trigger post-wildfire debris flows, which limits our understanding of how and why rainfall ID thresholds vary in different climatic and geologic settings. In this study, we monitored debris-flow activity following the Pinal Fire in central Arizona, which differs from both a climatic and hydrogeomorphic perspective from other regions in the western United States where ID thresholds for post-wildfire debris flows are well established, namely the Transverse Ranges of southern California. Since the peak rainfall intensity within a rainstorm may exceed the rainfall intensity required to trigger a debris flow, the development of robust rainfall ID thresholds requires knowledge of the timing of debris flows within rainstorms. Existing post-wildfire debris-flow studies in Arizona only constrain the peak rainfall intensity within debris-flow-producing storms, which may far exceed the intensity that actually triggered the observed debris flow. In this study, we used pressure transducers within five burned drainage basins to constrain the timing of debris flows within rainstorms. Rainfall ID thresholds derived here from triggering rainfall intensities are, on average, 22 mm h−1 lower than ID thresholds derived under the assumption that the triggering intensity is equal to the maximum rainfall intensity recorded during a rainstorm. We then use a hydrologic model to demonstrate that the magnitude of the 15-min rainfall ID threshold at the Pinal Fire site is associated with the rainfall intensity required to exceed a recently proposed dimensionless discharge threshold for debris-flow initiation. Model results further suggest that previously observed differences in regional ID thresholds between Arizona and the San Gabriel Mountains of southern California may be attributed, in large part, to differences in the hydraulic properties of burned soils. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
2.
钻进过程状态监测旨在实时描述钻进工况,判断运行性能优劣程度进行非优追溯,及时指导司钻人员调整作业操作,保证钻进过程安全、高效、稳定开展。钻进工况是钻进系统运行状态的反映,因此开展面向状态监测技术的钻进工况识别研究具有重要的理论和应用价值。本文针对钻进工况识别问题,基于状态监测数据,建立基于支持向量机的钻进工况识别模型,对钻进工况进行识别。综合工况识别结果,对钻进效率进行评估,并对影响钻进效率的因素进行讨论,寻找提升钻进效率的手段。最后,采用钻进现场实钻数据进行仿真实验,验证所提方法的可行性和有效性。  相似文献   
3.
墨江金厂金镍矿床位于哀牢山造山带中段,九甲—安定大断裂上盘,是西南三江成矿带内一个独特的金镍矿床。本文在详细野外地质调查基础上,通过显微镜下观察、扫描电镜和能谱分析,结合矿石微量元素分析,对矿石中金、镍赋存状态及成因关系进行了研究。结果显示,金赋存形式主要有可见金和不可见金。可见金又可分为粒间金和包体金;不可见金是以Au~+赋存于硫锑铜银矿、黄铁矿中。镍赋存状态有两种:一是以独立矿物,如辉砷镍矿、锑硫镍矿等存在;二是以离子态赋存于黄铁矿、硫锑铜银矿中。矿石结构构造、矿物共生组合及微量元素含量等显示,金和镍为同期热液成矿,金来自岩浆热液系统远端的低温热液,镍是含金低温热液流经超基性岩体时萃取而来。成矿过程可分为早期富硅质热液和晚期富钙质热液两个阶段,成矿是在幕式构造活动下多期流体运移和沉淀的结果。  相似文献   
4.
Projection models are commonly used to evaluate the impacts of fishing. However, previously developed projection tools were not suitable for China's fisheries as they are either overly complex and data-demanding or too simple to reflect the realistic management measures. Herein, an intermediate-complexity projection model was developed that could adequately describe fish population dynamics and account for management measures including mesh size limits, summer closure, and spatial closure. A two-patch operating model was outlined for the projection model and applied to the heavily depleted but commercially important small yellow croaker(Larimichthys polyactis) fishery in the Haizhou Bay, China, as a case study. The model was calibrated to realistically capture the fisheries dynamics with hindcasting. Three simulation scenarios featuring different fishing intensities based on status quo and maximum sustainable yield(MSY) were proposed and evaluated with projections. Stochastic projections were additionally performed to investigate the influence of uncertainty associated with recruitment strengths and the implementation of control targets. It was found that fishing at FMSY level could effectively rebuild the depleted stock biomass, while the stock collapsed rapidly in the status quo scenario. Uncertainty in recruitment and implementation could result in variabilities in management effects; but they did not much alter the management effects of the FMSY scenario. These results indicate that the lack of science-based control targets in fishing mortality or catch limits has hindered the achievement of sustainable fisheries in China. Overall, the presented work highlights that the developed projection model can promote the understanding of the possible consequences of fishing under uncertainty and is applicable to other fisheries in China.  相似文献   
5.
采用RANS方法,结合SST k-ω湍流模型,对不同顺流向与横顺流向固有频率的比值(即固有频率比,fnx/fny)条件下低质量比圆柱体的双自由度涡激振动进行了二维数值模拟。圆柱体的质量比为2.6,雷诺数范围为2 500~18 750,相应的约化速度范围为2~15,包括了经典试验中出现的整个锁定范围。通过研究发现,固有频率比是影响振动特性的重要参数,随着固有频率比的增加,响应幅值逐渐降低且向更高的约化速度偏移;在低约化速度范围内,固有频率比对顺流向和横流向振动之间的相位差以及升力频率有较大影响,从而得到各种不同偏向的8字形轨迹;最后对不同固有频率比条件下的尾涡模式进行了讨论,给出了对应不同约化速度时的尾涡模式。  相似文献   
6.
The relative operating characteristic (ROC) is a popular statistical method to measure the association between observed and diagnosed presence of a characteristic. The diagnosis of presence or absence depends on whether the value of an index variable is above a threshold. ROC considers multiple possible thresholds. Each threshold generates a two-by-two contingency table, which contains four central entries: hits, misses, false alarms, and correct rejections. ROC reveals for each threshold only two ratios, hits/(hits + misses) and false alarms/(false alarms + correct rejections). This article introduces the total operating characteristic (TOC), which shows the total information in the contingency table for each threshold. TOC maintains desirable properties of ROC, while TOC reveals strictly more information than ROC in a manner that makes TOC more useful than ROC. We illustrate the concepts with an application to land change science.  相似文献   
7.
我国西南地区干湿季降水的主模态分析   总被引:3,自引:2,他引:1  
利用我国西南地区26个台站降水资料,通过经验正交函数(EOF)分解的方法,分析了1980~2009年该地区干季(10~4月)和湿季(5~9月)降水的主模态。我国西南地区干季降水的时空变化存在两种主模态,它们分别可以解释总方差的22.4%和15.6%。第1主模态为全区一致型,具有准两年周期振荡的年际变化特征;第2主模态为东南—西北反向型,从20世纪90年代中期至21世纪初呈现2~3年的变化周期。我国西南地区湿季降水的时空变化存在三种主模态,它们分别可以解释总方差的17.1%,13.8%和11.1%。第1主模态为全区一致型,20世纪90年代初期具有较强的2~4年周期;第2主模态为经向偶极子型分布,并具有显著的4年周期;第3主模态为纬向偶极子型分布,具有2~4年的年际变化信号。进一步利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料以及美国国家海洋和大气管理局(NOAA)的海表面温度(SST)资料,通过合成分析和回归分析的方法探讨了与干湿季降水各主模态对应的大尺度大气环流和海温状况。我国西南地区干季降水第1主模态与北极涛动(AO)有明显的正相关关系,对应的大气环流和海温状况表现为高纬北冰洋与中纬度地区上空高度场的反向异常分布,北大西洋和北太平洋海温低纬与中高纬的偶极子型异常分布;第2主模态与中高纬欧亚大陆上空高度场经向偶极子型异常分布有关,中纬度北太平洋的海温异常与该模态具有紧密的联系。我国西南地区湿季降水第1主模态与北大西洋涛动(NAO)显著负相关,对应的大气环流和海温状况表现为北大西洋上,高纬度与中纬度地区上空高度场的偶极子型异常分布,海温从低纬到中高纬的三极子型异常分布;第2主模态受欧亚大陆上空高度场经向三极子型异常分布影响,并与北太平洋海温异常的一致型分布有关;第3主模态可能与El Ni?o Modoki有关,同时受到南亚高压的影响,赤道太平洋海温的纬向三极子型异常分布对该模态具有一定的潜在预报意义。  相似文献   
8.
现有服役海洋平台正逐步走向老龄化,海洋平台拆除成为海洋工程新的经济增长点。针对达到服役年限的导管架平台,基于数值分析方法模拟拆除过程,开展平台在不同拆除阶段和环境载荷等参数下的稳定性及影响规律研究。基于钢结构整体稳定性理论,以导管架平台拆除过程中顶点位移为参考,定义导管架平台拆除作业稳定性指标,提出拆除作业阶段划分方法,通过分析导管架平台在不同影响因素作用下拆除过程稳定性响应,给出拆除作业建议。选取我国南海某4裙12腿进行实例分析,结果表明:主桩腿对导管架平台起决定性承载作用,拆除部分主桩腿后需要引入外部支撑力,以保证拆除作业安全进行;拆除构件越多,来浪方向和环境载荷大小对平台影响越加显著。研究结果可为导管架平台拆除作业提供参考。  相似文献   
9.
For slope condition of ground surface, the asymmetrical deformation about the vertical center line and the horizontal center line of the tunnel cross section can be formed. A unified displacement function expressed by the Fourier series is presented to express the asymmetrical deformation of the tunnel cross section. Five basic deformation modes corresponding to the expansion order 2 are a complete deformation mode to reflect deformation behaviors of the tunnel cross section under slope boundary. Such this complete displacement mode is implemented into the complex variable solution for analytically predicting tunneling-induced ground deformation under slope boundary. All of these analytical solutions are verified by good agreements of the comparison between the analytical solutions and finite element method results. A parameter study is carried out to investigate the influence of deformation modes of the tunnel cross section, geometrical conditions of the tunnel and the slope angle, and “Buoyancy effect” on the displacement field. Finally, the proposed method is consistent with measured data of the Hejie tunnel in China qualitatively. The presented solution can provide a simplified indication for evaluating the ground deformation under slope condition of ground surface.  相似文献   
10.
In a humid northern boreal climate, the success rate of artificial regeneration to Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) can be improved by including a soil water content (SWC) based assessment of site suitability in the reforestation planning process. This paper introduces an application of airborne visible-near-infrared imaging spectroscopic data to identify suitable subregions of forest compartments for the low SWC-tolerant Scots pine. The spatial patterns of understorey plant species communities, recorded by the AISA (Airborne Imaging Spectrometer for Applications) sensor, were demonstrated to be dependant on the underlying SWC. According to the nonmetric multidimensional scaling and correlation results twelve understorey species were found to be most abundant on sites with high soil SWCs. The abundance of bare soil, rocks and abundance of more than ten species indicated low soil SWCs. The spatial patterns of understorey are attributed to time-stability of the underlying SWC patterns. A supervised artificial neural network (radial basis functional link network, probabilistic neural network) approach was taken to classify AISA imaging spectrometer data with dielectric (as a measure volumetric SWC) ground referencing into regimes suitable and unsuitable for Scots pine. The accuracy assessment with receiver operating characteristics curves demonstrated a maximum of 74.1% area under the curve values which indicated moderate success of the NN modelling. The results signified the importance of the training set’s quality, adequate quantity (>2.43 points/ha) and NN algorithm selection over the NN algorithm training parameter optimization to perfection. This methodology for the analysis of site suitability of Scots pine can be recommended, especially when artificial regeneration of former mixed wood Norway spruce (Picea abies L. Karst) - downy birch (Betula pubenscens Ehrh.) stands is being considered, so that artificially regenerated areas to Scots pine can be optimized for forestry purposes.  相似文献   
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