青藏高原及邻区未来地震活动性趋势数值分析          下载免费PDF全文

董培育  石耀霖  程惠红  乔学军 《地球物理学报》2020,63(3):1155-1169

区域中长期地震危险性数值分析研究,需要对其初始构造应力场有所了解,但目前以及未来一段时期内仍无法直接观测到深部孕震层区域的应力场状况.本文首先基于岩石库仑-摩尔破裂准则,利用青藏高原及邻区百年历史范围内的强震信息,来反演估算该区域的初始应力场.然后,考虑区域构造应力加载及强震造成的应力扰动共同作用,重现了历史强震的发展过程.然而对于初始应力场的反演估算,本文仅能给出区域其上下限的极限值,并不能唯一确定.因此,采用Monte Carlo随机法,进行大量独立的随机试验计算,生成数千种有差异的区域初始应力场模型,且保证每种模型都能令历史强震有序发生,但未来应力场演化过程不尽相同.最后,将数千种模型在未来时间段内的危险性预测结果集成为数理统计结果,据此给出了区域未来的地震危险性概率分布图.初步结果显示未来强震危险性概率较高地区集中在巴颜喀拉块体边界及鲜水河断裂带地区.  相似文献   

An endemic freshwater mussel species from the Orontes River basin in Turkey and Syria represents duck mussel’s intraspecific lineage: Implications for conservation     

《Limnologica》2020

Amik Lake or, historically, Lake of Antioch, was a large freshwater body in the lower Orontes River basin (Hatay Province, Turkey) that was drained in the 1940s–1970s. Several endemic animal species were described from this lake, including the freshwater mussel Anodonta pseudodopsis Locard, 1883 (Bivalvia: Unionidae) characterized by a large rounded shell covered by a peculiar yellow or yellowish-brown periostracum. Molecular analyses of topotypes of this nominal taxon collected from the former lake’s tributaries in the Amik Plain indicate that it is an intra-specific lineage of the widespread Anodonta anatina (Linnaeus, 1758) based on the mitochondrial COI and 16S rRNA, and the nuclear 28S rRNA gene fragments. Geometric morphometric analyses using the lectotype and topotypes of Anodonta pseudodopsis support our DNA-based hypothesis on the status of this nominal taxon. A new synonymy is provided as follows: Anodonta anatina = Anodonta pseudodopsis syn. nov. The syntype of Anodonta pseudodopsis SMF 5129 “See von Antiochia” (Senckenberg Research Institute and Natural History Museum, Frankfurt, Germany) is designated here to be the lectotype of this nominal taxon. Finally, we conclude that Anodonta anatina range covers the Orontes River basin in Turkey and Syria and the Nahr al-Kabir al-Shamali River in the Latakia Governorate of Syria. This intraspecific lineage of Anodonta anatina and other freshwater mussels of the Middle East are highly threatened due to multiple anthropogenic impacts and must be a focus of international conservation efforts. The Karasu River in eastern Turkey hosts viable populations of all freshwater mussel species of the Orontes’s fauna and can be considered one of the most important water bodies for the conservation of these imperiled animals in the region.  相似文献   

Thresholds for post-wildfire debris flows: Insights from the Pinal Fire,Arizona, USA     

Carissa A. Raymond  Luke A. McGuire  Ann M. Youberg  Dennis M. Staley  Jason W. Kean 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2020,45(6):1349-1360

Wildfire significantly alters the hydrologic properties of a burned area, leading to increases in overland flow, erosion, and the potential for runoff-generated debris flows. The initiation of debris flows in recently burned areas is well characterized by rainfall intensity-duration (ID) thresholds. However, there is currently a paucity of data quantifying the rainfall intensities required to trigger post-wildfire debris flows, which limits our understanding of how and why rainfall ID thresholds vary in different climatic and geologic settings. In this study, we monitored debris-flow activity following the Pinal Fire in central Arizona, which differs from both a climatic and hydrogeomorphic perspective from other regions in the western United States where ID thresholds for post-wildfire debris flows are well established, namely the Transverse Ranges of southern California. Since the peak rainfall intensity within a rainstorm may exceed the rainfall intensity required to trigger a debris flow, the development of robust rainfall ID thresholds requires knowledge of the timing of debris flows within rainstorms. Existing post-wildfire debris-flow studies in Arizona only constrain the peak rainfall intensity within debris-flow-producing storms, which may far exceed the intensity that actually triggered the observed debris flow. In this study, we used pressure transducers within five burned drainage basins to constrain the timing of debris flows within rainstorms. Rainfall ID thresholds derived here from triggering rainfall intensities are, on average, 22 mm h⁻¹ lower than ID thresholds derived under the assumption that the triggering intensity is equal to the maximum rainfall intensity recorded during a rainstorm. We then use a hydrologic model to demonstrate that the magnitude of the 15-min rainfall ID threshold at the Pinal Fire site is associated with the rainfall intensity required to exceed a recently proposed dimensionless discharge threshold for debris-flow initiation. Model results further suggest that previously observed differences in regional ID thresholds between Arizona and the San Gabriel Mountains of southern California may be attributed, in large part, to differences in the hydraulic properties of burned soils. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Structure-from-motion photogrammetry analysis of historical aerial photography: Determining beach volumetric change over decadal scales     

Rafael C. Carvalho  David M. Kennedy  Yakufu Niyazi  Chloe Leach  Teresa M. Konlechner  Daniel Ierodiaconou 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2020,45(11):2540-2555

Historical aerial photographs are an invaluable tool in shoreline mapping and change detection in coastal landscapes. We evaluate the extent to which structure-from-motion (SfM) photogrammetric methods can be applied to quantify volumetric changes along sandy beaches, using archival imagery. We demonstrate the application of SfM-derived digital surface models (DSMs) at East Beach and Lady Bay in southwest Victoria, Australia, using photographic datasets taken in 1969, 1977 and 1986, and compare them to LiDAR-derived DSMs acquired at both sites in 2007. The SfM approaches resulted in two entire and two partial suitable DSMs out of six datasets. Good-quality DSMs were spatially continuous with a good spread of ground control points (GCPs) near the beach at Lady Bay, whereas unsuitable DSMs were mostly restricted by poor distribution and number of GCPs in spatially segmented areas of East Beach, due to limited overlapping of images, possible poor quality of GCPs and also the propagation of errors in the derived point clouds. A volume of approximately 223 000 ± 72 000 m³ was deposited at Lady Bay between 1969 and 2007, despite minimal erosion observed near the breakwater. The partially suitable dataset of East Beach indicated that beach erosion of at least 39 m³ m⁻¹ occurred immediately to the east of the seawall after 1977. We also discuss the drawbacks and strengths of SfM approaches as a benchmark of historical erosion assessments along sandy beaches. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Characterization of sudden and sustained base flow jump hydrologic behaviour in the humid seasonal tropics of the Panama Canal Watershed     

Yanyan Cheng  Fred L. Ogden  Jianting Zhu 《水文研究》2020,34(3):569-582

Base flows are important for tropical regions with pronounced dry seasons, which are facing increasing water demands. Base flow generation, however, is one of the most challenging hydrological processes to characterize in the tropics. In many years during the May–December wet season in the Panama Canal Watershed (PCW), base flows in rivers abruptly increase. This increase persists until the start of the December–April dry season. Understanding this unusual base flow jump (BFJ) behaviour is critical to improve water provisioning in the seasonal tropics, especially during droughts and extended dry seasons. This study developed an integrated approach combining piecewise regression on cumulative average base flow and sensitivity analysis to calculate the timing and magnitude of BFJ. Rainfall, forest cover, mean land surface slope, catchment area, and estimated subsurface storage were tested as predictors for the occurrence and magnitude of the BFJs in seven subcatchments of the PCW. Sensitivity analysis on correlated predictors allowed ranking of predictor contributions due to isolated and cross-correlation effects. Correlations between observed BFJs and BFJs predicted by watershed and rainfall-related predictors were 0.92 and 0.65 for BFJ timing and magnitude, respectively. Forest cover was the second most significant predictor after cumulative rainfall for jump magnitude, owing to larger subsurface storage and groundwater recharge in forests than pastures. Catchments in the mountainous eastern PCW always generated larger jumps due to their higher rainfall and greater forest cover than the western PCW catchments. The cross-correlations between predictors contributed to more than 50% of the jump variances. The results demonstrate the importance of rainfall gradient and catchment characteristics in affecting the sudden and sustained BFJs, which can help inform land management decisions intended to enhance water supplies in the tropics. This study underscores the need for more research to further understand the hydrological processes involved in the BFJ phenomenon, including better BFJ models and field characterizations, to help improve tropical ecosystem services under a changing environment.  相似文献   

Investigation of the elevation of saltwater wedge due to subsurface dams     

Qinpeng Chang  Tianyuan Zheng  Youyuan Chen  Xilai Zheng  Marc Walther 《水文研究》2020,34(22):4251-4261

Subsurface dams are rather effective and used for the prevention of saltwater intrusion in coastal regions around the world. We carried out the laboratory experiments to investigate the elevation of saltwater wedge after the construction of subsurface dams. The elevation of saltwater wedge refers to the upward movement of the downstream saltwater wedge because the subsurface dams obstruct the regional groundwater flow and reduce the freshwater discharge. Consequently, the saltwater wedge cannot further extend in the longitudinal direction but rises in the vertical profile resulting in significant downstream aquifer salinization. In order to quantitatively address this issue, field-scale numerical simulations were conducted to explore the influence of various dam heights, distances, and hydraulic gradients on the elevation of saltwater wedge. Our investigation shows that the upward movement of the saltwater wedge and its areal extension in the vertical domain of the downstream aquifer become more severe with a higher dam and performed a great dependence on the freshwater discharge. Furthermore, the increase of the hydraulic gradient and the dam distance from the sea boundary leads to a more pronounced wedge elevation. This phenomenon comes from the variation of the freshwater discharge due to the modification of dam height, location, and hydraulic gradient. Large freshwater discharge can generate greater repulsive force to restrain the elevation of saltwater wedge. These conclusions provide theoretical references for the behaviour of the freshwater–seawater interface after the construction of subsurface dams and help optimize the design strategy to better utilize the coastal groundwater resources.  相似文献   

柱顶层间隔震体系增量动力响应研究          下载免费PDF全文

袁梦醒  陈望  刘彦辉  谭平  金建敏 《地震工程学报》2020,42(4):872-880

针对悬臂柱顶有拉梁和无拉梁层间隔震体系的抗震性能问题,运用增量动力分析(IDA)方法进行弹塑性分析,模拟结构从弹性到弹塑性直至最后倒塌的全过程。通过调幅地震动得到相应的层间位移角及峰值加速度,分别绘制单条与多条IDA曲线分析拉梁对隔震结构动力响应的影响,研究两种结构的抗震性能。结果表明:在相同性能点,有拉梁和无拉梁对纤维铰弯矩值和曲率值基本无影响,而在不同性能点,纤维铰状态明显不同;两种体系从正常使用阶段到防止倒塌阶段所需的加速度峰值的差距慢慢增大;在极罕遇地震下,柱顶有拉梁层间隔震体系的下部结构抗震性能要高于柱顶无拉梁层间隔震体系。  相似文献   

Regional soil organic carbon prediction model based on a discrete wavelet analysis of hyperspectral satellite data     

《International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation》2020

Most studies have the achieved rapid and accurate determination of soil organic carbon (SOC) using laboratory spectroscopy; however, it remains difficult to map the spatial distribution of SOC. To predict and map SOC at a regional scale, we obtained fourteen hyperspectral images from the Gaofen-5 (GF-5) satellite and decomposed and reconstructed the original reflectance (OR) and the first derivative reflectance (FDR) using discrete wavelet transform (DWT) at different scales. At these different scales, as inputs, we selected the 3 optimal bands with the highest weight coefficient using principal component analysis and chose the normalized difference index (NDI), ratio index (RI) and difference index (DI) with the strongest correlation with the SOC content using a contour map method. These inputs were then used to build regional-scale SOC prediction models using random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM) and back-propagation neural network (BPNN) algorithms. The results indicated that: 1) at a low decomposition scale, DWT can effectively eliminate the noise in satellite hyperspectral data, and the FDR combined with DWT can improve the SOC prediction accuracy significantly; 2) the method of selecting inputs using principal component analysis and a contour map can eliminate the redundancy of hyperspectral data while retaining the physical meaning of the inputs. For the model with the highest prediction accuracy, the inputs were all derived from the wavelength range of SOC variations; 3) the differences in prediction accuracy among the different prediction models are small; and 4) the SOC prediction accuracy using hyperspectral satellite data is greatly improved compared with that of previous SOC prediction studies using multispectral satellite data. This study provides a highly robust and accurate method for predicting and mapping regional SOC contents.  相似文献   

利用CEEMD分析中国沿海GNSS站高程时序变化     

刘豪  周东旭  王盼龙  张化疑  王永康  姜传苓 《测绘通报》2020,(3):39-43,77

利用完备经验模态分解方法（CEEMD）对我国沿海地区6个GNSS基准站（2010—2018）的高程时序数据进行了处理分析。结果表明：CEEMD在高程时间序列分析中具有一定的优越性，可准确分解出各GNSS站高程时序中存在的周、月、季节、年等变化周期项，其中周年运动是主要贡献项，各站高程时间序列的短周期变化与潮汐变化周期具有密切关联性；沿海GNSS站的地面沉降既具有区域的一致性，又存在区域间差异性，其中D区DBJO、DZJJ站呈现先下降后上升的趋势，N区NZUH、NWZU站呈下降趋势，B区的BZMW呈上升趋势，而同海区的BLHT站则呈显著的下降趋势。  相似文献   

融合多源数据的三维建模方法及精度分析     

祖立辉 《北京测绘》2020,(3):347-351

以地面相机影像、低空无人机影像和地面三维激光点云数据为融合对象,研究空地影像融合、低空影像融合地面三维激光点云和低空影像融合三维白模进行三维建模的方法,并对其三维建模精度和建模效果进行综合分析。这3种融合方法进行三维建模丰富了三维模型的色彩纹理信息,提高了三维模型的几何结构精度,能满足较大场景的三维实景模型的建模要求,为数字化古建筑(古文物)保护提供具有较高价值的参考数据。  相似文献