新冠肺炎疫情扩散与人口流动的空间关系及对中国城市公共卫生分类治理启示     

向云波  王圣云 《热带地理》2020,40(3):408-421

人口流动影响新冠肺炎疫情传播与风险扩散。基于百度迁徙大数据和各省市区卫生健康委员会数据，结合地理信息技术，研究了2020年1月1日至3月5日136个城市新冠肺炎疫情扩散与武汉市人口流出的空间关系及其对我国城市公共卫生治理启示。研究表明：1）中国新冠肺炎疫情扩散过程具有阶段性特征，经历了疫情发生与隐性扩散、快速扩散与暴发、扩散遏制和扩散衰减4个阶段。2）研究时间段武汉市人口主要流向湖北省境内以及周边省市和北京、上海、广州、深圳等一线城市，具有地理邻近性和倾向区域中心城市的人口流入特征。受地理距离、时间成本、社会经济联系、境外输入等因素的影响，新冠肺炎疫情空间分布的不平衡性明显，长江中游城市群、京津冀城市群、长三角城市群、粤港澳大湾区和成渝城市群成为新冠肺炎疫情集中分布的重点区域，一些重点出入境口岸城市的新冠疫情扩散风险较大。3）新冠肺炎疫情扩散与人口流出之间具有较强的正向等级相关性。两者之间的空间关系可以分为8种调控类型，近90%的城市具有人口流入多、确诊病例数高或人口流入少、确诊病例数低的特征。其中，人口流入多、确诊病例数高的城市主要集中分布在湖北省境内以及中国重点城市群的中心城市，其防控压力来自人口流入多、确诊病例数高带来的疫情扩散风险；而人口流入少、确诊病例数低的城市分布较为分散，其防控的难点在于提高防控对策的精准性。我国疫情防控取得了显著成效，但随着时间的演进全球疫情形势反弹的不确定性仍然存在，外防输入、内防反弹的压力依然很重，现阶段乃至未来一段时期，疫情防控将伴随中国经济社会发展成为新常态。建议针对8种调控类型，从人口流动、交通和资源等引导与管控方面分类提出精细化的疫情防控策略，提升城市公共卫生治理能力。  相似文献   

热带气旋“Malakas”与中纬度系统的相互作用及其结构变化     

刘凡  陈华 《气象科学》2019,39(5):666-674

本文利用中尺度数值模式WRF和LAGRANTO轨迹模式对2010年变性台风"Malakas"进行数值模拟和轨迹分析,分析了Malakas在变性过程中与中纬度系统的相互作用,以及在相互作用过程中Malakas的结构变化特征。结果表明:Malakas变性过程经历了三个阶段:(1)高层扰动加强期,高层的正位涡产生的气旋性环流使低层Malakas中心北部的斜压带西侧产生负的温度平流,表现为冷空气的入侵;(2)Malakas和中纬度系统相互作用时期,台风北上导致斜压带出现,深对流的爆发使低层暖湿气流沿着斜压带上升,快速上升气流中的潜热释放导致低PV空气向对流层上部净输送,在其北部高层重新构建出一个脊;(3)Malakas变性成温带气旋,残存的台风内核与斜压带逐渐合并,负的位涡平流带着非绝热外出流驱动了下游最初脊的构建,加速并且固定了中纬度急流,并整体放大了上层Rossby波模式。  相似文献   

Experiments on the effect of inflow and outflow sequences on suspended sediment exchange rates     

Michael M&#;ller  Giovanni De Cesare  Anton J. Schleiss 《国际泥沙研究》2017,32(2)

In laboratory experiments, the influence of inflow and outflow sequences on the behavior of fine sedi-ment was investigated. The experimental set-up consisted of two interconnected rectangular basins, between which water was moved back and forth. Suspended sediment concentration in the main basin as well as the sediment exchange rates were derived from turbidity measurements.The suspended sediment ratio, SSR, and sediment exchange rates (influx sediment rate, ISR, and evacuated sediment rate, ESR) were measured. In twenty test runs, a parametric study on the magnitude and frequency of inflow and outflow cycles, the relative duration between inflow and outflow sequences, the initial sediment concentration, and the intake position was done. An initial test with stagnant water described the set-tling behavior of fine sediment and served as a reference scenario.The test results show that settling of fine particles near the intake/outlet structure can be considerably reduced by the nature of the inflow and outflow sequences. High cycle magnitude and frequency lead to maximum suspended sediment ratio in the system. For low discharges, the evolution of suspended sediment concentration cannot be directly correlated to the inflow and outflow cycles. However, compared to"no operation"conditions, the suspended sediment ratio could be increased by 10%to 40%locally. For high discharge, the evolution of suspended sediment concentration correlated with discharge cycles and suspended sediment ratios between 50%and 80%higher than for stagnant water could be achieved. Similar ratios could be obtained when the intake is located closer to the bottom or to the free water surface.Meanwhile, the overall sediment balance remained in equilibrium over the test period, indicating that the influx and evacuated sediment rates are not significantly influenced by the inflow and outflow cycles.  相似文献   

Analysis of snowpack dynamics during the spring melt season for a sub‐alpine site using point measurements and numerical modeling          下载免费PDF全文

Mark S. Pleasants  Thijs J. Kelleners  Noriaki Ohara 《水文研究》2017,31(25):4568-4585

Snowpack dynamics through October 2014–June 2017 were described for a forested, sub‐alpine field site in southeastern Wyoming. Point measurements of wetness and density were combined with numerical modeling and continuous time series of snow depth, snow temperature, and snowpack outflow to identify 5 major classes of distinct snowpack conditions. Class (i) is characterized by no snowpack outflow and variable average snowpack temperature and density. Class (ii) is characterized by short durations of liquid water in the upper snowpack, snowpack outflow values of 0.0008–0.005 cm hr^?1, an increase in snowpack temperature, and average snow density between 0.25–0.35 g cm^?3. Class (iii) is characterized by a partially saturated wetness profile, snowpack outflow values of 0.005–0.25 cm hr^?1, snowpack temperature near 0 °C, and average snow density between 0.25–0.40 g cm^?3. Class (iv) is characterized by strong diurnal snowpack outflow pattern with values as high as 0.75 cm hr^?1, stable snowpack temperature near 0 °C, and stable average snow density between 0.35–0.45 g cm^?3. Class (v) occurs intermittently between Classes (ii)–(iv) and displays low snowpack outflow values between 0.0008–0.04 cm hr^?1, a slight decrease in temperature relative to the preceding class, and similar densities to the preceding class. Numerical modeling of snowpack properties with SNOWPACK using both the Storage Threshold scheme and Richards' equation was used to quantify the effect of snowpack capillarity on predictions of snowpack outflow and other snowpack properties. Results indicate that both simulations are able to predict snow depth, snow temperature, and snow density reasonably well with little difference between the 2 water transport schemes. Richards' equation more accurately simulates the timing of snowpack outflow over the Storage Threshold scheme, especially early in the melt season and at diurnal timescales.  相似文献   

0908号台风“莫拉克”异常路径及其对台湾海峡两岸强降水的影响     

刘爱鸣  高珊 《台湾海峡》2011,30(2):151-157

应用常规资料,结合雷达、卫星云图和其他观测资料,分析了0908号台风＂莫拉克＂异常路径及其对台湾海峡两岸强降水的影响.结果表明：（1）500 hPa欧亚中高纬度为两槽一脊的形势和东北区域大范围的正变高使副热带高压加强西伸,以及0909号热带气旋＂艾涛＂前身低压阻挡了副热带高压南落的共同作用,使＂莫拉克＂台风前期向偏西方向移动.（2）高空冷涡提供了有利于热带低压维持和发展的动力条件,热带低压的维持又对＂莫拉克＂的移动造成影响.（3）冷空气持续南下造成副热带高压减弱,并且在＂莫拉克＂台风北侧形成稳定低能区;高空冷涡引起其北侧中高层高度下降和东风引导气流减弱;在弱环流和多热带气旋的环境场下,以及热带风暴＂天鹅＂（0907号）、＂艾涛＂对＂莫拉克＂台风的反方向作用力等因素的综合作用,是＂莫拉克＂台风在台湾海峡移速异常缓慢的原因.（4）＂莫拉克＂台风在台湾海峡滞留时间长,其北侧强偏东风和南侧强西南风带来充沛的水汽,及迎风坡辐合抬升所产生的中小尺度系统是造成闽北、浙南和台湾岛南部强降水持续时间长、累计雨量大的重要原因.  相似文献   

典型融雪期雪层融雪水出流条件模拟及分析     

张波  刘志辉  高云  房世峰 《干旱区地理》2015,38(3)

融雪期雪层融雪水的运移及流出过程模拟乃是国际冰雪水文学研究的难点之一,准确模拟融雪水的出流过程对于春季融雪型洪水的预报具有重要作用。本研究基于EM50、农业小环境监测仪和一些常规监测手段,获取了典型融雪期雪层的雪粒径、雪深及日气温数据,利用Excel、DPS、Arcgis及SPSS等分析软件对数据进行综合处理,并采用回归分析对融雪水的出流条件进行了建模分析,利用神经网络模型对模拟结果进行检验。结果表明:积温可作为融雪水外流的参考性指标,用于融雪水外流过程的预测分析;雪粒径和雪深都与融雪水外流积温条件存在显著相关性,且相关系数0.96;逐步回归可以很好地模拟融雪水外流的积温条件,模拟的误差仅为124.5℃·min,时间误差为15 min,模拟效果良好。该研究对于进一步探讨融雪期雪层融雪水的出流规律、开展雪层融雪水运移过程的数值模拟等工作具有重要意义。  相似文献   

2010年福建一次早春强降雹超级单体风暴对比分析   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

冯晋勤  俞小鼎  傅伟辉  曹长尧 《高原气象》2012,31(1):239-250

利用探空、地面资料以及建阳、龙岩、长乐三部新一代天气雷达资料,对2010年3月5日福建中北部地区5cm强降雹的两个超级单体风暴进行了对比分析。结果表明,干暖盖、强垂直风切变、中高层正涡度区及地面中尺度低压为超级单体的形成提供了良好的环境场。两个超级单体都是由多单体合并后发展起来的,在成熟阶段以右移为主,属长寿命右移风暴:第一个超级单体在发展过程中由于地形作用和新单体的并入经历了3次加强过程,低层出现明显的钩状回波、中高层三体散射特征;第二个超级单体经历了多单体风暴—超级单体风暴—多单体风暴3个阶段,成熟阶段低层呈现出明显的倒"V"形回波特征,中高层有明显向右伸展的云帖。两个超级单体风暴的中气旋都是由中层发展起来,随着中气旋强度不断加强和厚度加大,最强切变中心突降时出现冰雹、大风强对流天气。通过对第一个超级单体中气旋流场分析,发现风暴前、后侧的下沉气流与低层入流形成了明显的辐合旋转作用,下沉的干冷气流进一步推动低层的暖湿入流,形成强烈的上升气流,并在风暴顶形成强辐散,使得风暴长时间维持。第二个超级单体在风暴减弱阶段,风暴右侧出现中气旋分裂,之后减弱、消失。产生强对流天气时,中高层维持高反射率因子,出现三体散射现象、风暴顶强烈辐散以及较大的VIL密度等特征。  相似文献   

Shock breakout in Type Ibc supernovae and application to GRB 060218/SN 2006aj     

Li-Xin Li 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2007,375(1):240-256

Recently, a soft blackbody component was observed in the early X-ray afterglow of GRB 060218, which was interpreted as shock breakout from the thick wind of the progenitor Wolf–Rayet (WR) star of the underlying Type Ic supernova 2006aj. In this paper, we present a simple model for computing the characteristic quantities (including energy, temperature and time duration) for the transient event from the shock breakout in Type Ibc supernovae produced by the core-collapse of WR stars surrounded by dense winds. In contrast to the case of a star without a strong wind, the shock breakout occurs in the wind region rather than inside the star, caused by the large optical depth in the wind. We find that, for the case of a WR star with a dense wind, the total energy of the radiation generated by the supernova shock breakout is larger than that in the case of the same star without a wind by a factor of >10. The temperature can be either hotter or colder, depending on the wind parameters. The time duration is larger caused by the increase in the effective radius of the star due to the presence of a thick wind. Then, we apply the model to GRB 060218/SN 2006aj. We show that, to explain both the temperature and the total energy of the blackbody component observed in GRB 060218 by the shock breakout, the progenitor WR star has to have an unrealistically large core radius (the radius at optical depth of 20), larger than 100 R_⊙. In spite of this disappointing result, our model is expected to have important applications to the observations on Type Ibc supernovae in which the detection of shock breakout will provide important clues to the progenitors of Type Ibc supernovae.  相似文献   

在CepheusE中C^18O（J=1—0）分子外流的不准直分布的研究     

俞志尧 《天文学报》1998,39(4):405-411

从在CepheusE中C18O（J＝1－0）的谱线频谱图发现,相对于峰速度的蓝移成分的积分流量密度明显大于相对于红移成分的积分流量密度．从在它的强度分布图也可以发现强度分布轮廓向西北和向东延伸．为此,研究了在CepheusE中C18O（J＝1－0）的速度分段积分等高图,发现相对于峰速度的蓝移速度分段积分等高图中的C18O（J＝1－0）的积分强度,要大于相对于红移速度分段积分等高图中的C18O（J＝1－0）的积分强度,同时强度分布图中的分子外流的不准直分布是由相对于峰速度的蓝移成分的分布的不准直性所引起的．  相似文献   

相似环流背景下海南两次不同类型强对流天气对比研究   总被引：4，自引：3，他引：1  

符式红  王秀明  俞小鼎 《气象学报》2018,76(5):742-754

2016年6月5日和6日海南岛处在类似的环流背景下,5日海南出现了大范围8级以上阵风且伴有EF2级龙卷,而次日以短时强降水为主。为了研究两日产生不同类型强对流天气的原因,基于常规地面-高空观测、海南逐10 min的地面加密观测、海口多普勒雷达观测、NCEP-GFS 0.5°×0.5°分析资料进行对比分析,结果表明:(1)5日整层大气相对较干(可降水量为49 mm)且中层干层尤为清晰(700—500 hPa平均相对湿度41%),925—700 hPa温度垂直递减率为7.25℃/km,有利于产生强下沉气流及冷池形成,从而产生雷暴大风天气,而6日气层高湿,可降水量为60 mm,环境风弱,风暴移速慢,有利于产生强降水;(2)两日均属于弱的环境背景气流下的对流,相对而言,5日0—3 km风垂直切变均较6日大,有利于形成飑线;(3)结构分析表明5日对流风暴伴有较强阵风出流,较强的风垂直切变加之多个单体阵风出流合并抬升下,产生了持续1.5 h的飑线,并出现了弓形回波,而6日为低质心一般单体且阵风出流相对弱,尽管多个单体合并成了准线性的风暴,其持续时间亦与一般单体生命史相当;(4)5日对流抑制能量相对较大,需较强的地面辐合抬升和午后强烈升温触发雷暴,雷暴触发后强烈发展;6日对流抑制能量近乎为0,弱的海风锋辐合及热力作用均触发对流;(5)此次龙卷过程的风垂直切变与典型超级单体龙卷差异显著,产生龙卷的低层中气旋出现时间与龙卷发生时间仅差3 min,故提前预警龙卷的可能性极小。   相似文献