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The formation of the supercontinent Pangaea during the Permo–Triassic gave rise to an extreme monsoonal climate (often termed ‘mega-monsoon’) that has been documented by numerous palaeo-records. However, considerable debate exists about the role of orbital forcing in causing humid intervals in an otherwise arid climate. To shed new light on the forcing of monsoonal variability in subtropical Pangaea, this study focuses on sediment facies and colour variability of playa and alluvial fan deposits in an outcrop from the late Carnian (ca 225 Ma) in the southern Germanic Basin, south-western Germany. The sediments were deposited against a background of increasingly arid conditions following the humid Carnian Pluvial Event (ca 234 to 232 Ma). The ca 2·4 Myr long sedimentary succession studied shows a tripartite long-term evolution, starting with a distal mud-flat facies deposited under arid conditions. This phase was followed by a highly variable playa-lake environment that documents more humid conditions and finally a regression of the playa-lake due to a return of arid conditions. The red–green (a*) and lightness (L*) records show that this long-term variability was overprinted by alternating wet/dry cycles driven by orbital precession and ca 405 kyr eccentricity, without significant influence of obliquity. The absence of obliquity in this record indicates that high-latitude forcing played only a minor role in the southern Germanic Basin during the late Carnian. This is different from the subsequent Norian when high-latitude signals became more pronounced, potentially related to the northward drift of the Germanic Basin. The recurring pattern of pluvial events during the late Triassic demonstrates that orbital forcing, in particular eccentricity, stimulated the occurrence and intensity of wet phases. It also highlights the possibility that the Carnian Pluvial Event, although most likely triggered by enhanced volcanic activity, may also have been modified by an orbital stimulus.  相似文献   
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Obtaining representative meteorological data for watershed‐scale hydrological modelling can be difficult and time consuming. Land‐based weather stations do not always adequately represent the weather occurring over a watershed, because they can be far from the watershed of interest and can have gaps in their data series, or recent data are not available. This study presents a method for using the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) global meteorological dataset to obtain historical weather data and demonstrates the application to modelling five watersheds representing different hydroclimate regimes. CFSR data are available globally for each hour since 1979 at a 38‐km resolution. Results show that utilizing the CFSR precipitation and temperature data to force a watershed model provides stream discharge simulations that are as good as or better than models forced using traditional weather gauging stations, especially when stations are more than 10 km from the watershed. These results further demonstrate that adding CFSR data to the suite of watershed modelling tools provides new opportunities for meeting the challenges of modelling un‐gauged watersheds and advancing real‐time hydrological modelling. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
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在箱包CT检测中,当放射源活度很低的情况时,对CT成像进行了实验研究。利用多次累加的方法降低统计涨落和噪声的影响,使CT图像质量得到提高。实验证明对于弱信号情况下,利用多次累加的方法,CT成像具有比较高的质量,能够实现物性判别的要求。另外对于A/D量化误差也进行了分析。  相似文献   
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二叠系炭质页岩软弱夹层剪切蠕变特性研究   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
朱赛楠  殷跃平  李滨 《岩土力学》2019,40(4):1377-1386
以西南灰岩山区二叠系炭质页岩软弱夹层为研究对象,开展了原生软岩、层间剪切带和滑带3个演化阶段的矿物组成成分、微结构和不同正应力水平的剪切蠕变力学特性分析。结果表明:软弱夹层在演化过程中,矿物组分发生改变,黏土矿物含量在原生软岩中小于5%,层间剪切带中在5%~10%之间,滑带中大于10%。微结构由致密变得疏松,颗粒间连接力减弱;软弱夹层的蠕变位移和蠕变速率随着剪应力增加而增大,呈非线性关系。在相同剪应力条件下,蠕变位移和蠕变速率的关系为:滑带>层间剪切带>原岩。长期剪切强度逐渐降低,黏聚力的降幅大于内摩擦角,对时间的敏感程度较高。为受软弱夹层控制的层状基岩滑坡的发育发展过程、失稳机制研究提供了重要借鉴意义。  相似文献   
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How to accurately address model uncertainties with consideration of the rapid nonlinear error growth characteristics in a convection-allowing system is a crucial issue for performing convection-scale ensemble forecasts. In this study, a new nonlinear model perturbation technique for convective-scale ensemble forecasts is developed to consider a nonlinear representation of model errors in the Global and Regional Assimilation and Prediction Enhanced System (GRAPES) Convection-Allowing Ensemble Prediction System (CAEPS). The nonlinear forcing singular vector (NFSV) approach, that is, conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation-forcing (CNOP-F), is applied in this study, to construct a nonlinear model perturbation method for GRAPES-CAEPS. Three experiments are performed: One of them is the CTL experiment, without adding any model perturbation; the other two are NFSV-perturbed experiments, which are perturbed by NFSV with two different groups of constraint radii to test the sensitivity of the perturbation magnitude constraint. Verification results show that the NFSV-perturbed experiments achieve an overall improvement and produce more skillful forecasts compared to the CTL experiment, which indicates that the nonlinear NFSV-perturbed method can be used as an effective model perturbation method for convection-scale ensemble forecasts. Additionally, the NFSV-L experiment with large perturbation constraints generally performs better than the NFSV-S experiment with small perturbation constraints in the verification for upper-air and surface weather variables. But for precipitation verification, the NFSV-S experiment performs better in forecasts for light precipitation, and the NFSV-L experiment performs better in forecasts for heavier precipitation, indicating that for different precipitation events, the perturbation magnitude constraint must be carefully selected. All the findings above lay a foundation for the design of nonlinear model perturbation methods for future CAEPSs.  相似文献   
8.
文中对IPCC第六次评估报告(AR6)第一工作组(WGI)报告的第七章关于地球能量收支、气候反馈和气候敏感度中的重要内容进行了凝练,并简要总结该方面的最新研究成果和结论。评估显示,自工业革命以来,人类活动造成的有效辐射强迫(ERF)为2.72 [1.96~3.48] W/m2,其中,均匀混合温室气体的贡献为3.32 [3.03~3.61] W/m2,气溶胶的贡献为-1.1 [-1.7~-0.4] W/m2。净的气候反馈参数为-1.16 [-1.81~-0.51] W/(m2∙℃),云仍然是气候反馈整体不确定性的最大来源。平衡态气候敏感度(ECS)和瞬态气候响应(TCR)可用于评估全球平均地表气温对强迫的响应,是衡量全球气候响应的有效手段。ECS和TCR的最佳估计分别为3.0 [2.0~5.0]℃和1.8 [1.2~2.4]℃。  相似文献   
9.
Gao2008、Crowley2013和Sigl2015火山强迫资料,均基于极地冰芯重建。由于每组重建使用的冰芯数据和分析方法等不同,因此结果存在差异,从而影响气候模式应用。文中详细梳理三组火山强迫资料在原始冰芯数据、信号识别提取和沉积通量计算等方面的差异;介绍重建中涉及的对未知火山事件发生季节、纬度及从极地硫酸盐沉积通量向平流层辐射强迫通量转换等所做的假设;归纳资料中存在的共性问题。在此基础上,总结重建不确定性对模式应用的影响,希望为涉及气候模式的研究工作提供从气候系统外强迫资料解读或审视气候变化模拟与影响评估的视角,更好为气候模拟和预测服务。  相似文献   
10.
古气候模拟比较计划(PMIP)是古气候数值模拟领域一项重大的国际合作研究计划,其主旨是为古气候模拟和模拟结果评估提供一个协调机制,理解过去气候变化的物理机制和气候反馈的重要作用,为未来气候预估提供科学依据。同时,通过对比分析验证模式的模拟性能,探索其不确定性,促进耦合气候系统模式的发展。PMIP目前进行到第四阶段(PMIP4)。PMIP4进一步加强了与第六次国际耦合模式比较计划(CMIP6)的协作,选取了5组共同关注的PMIP4-CMIP6古气候模拟试验(中全新世、末次盛冰期、过去千年、末次间冰期和上新世暖期),考察气候系统对不同气候背景的综合响应。除此以外,PMIP4还设计了众多敏感性试验研究不同外强迫因子的影响。PMIP4模拟试验不仅为古气候研究提供大量的模拟数据,还将服务于CMIP6及其他众多模式比较计划。  相似文献   
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