Identification of factors influencing hydrologic model performance using a top-down approach in a large number of U.S. catchments     

Carolina Massmann 《水文研究》2020,34(1):4-20

Investigating the performance that can be achieved with different hydrological models across catchments with varying characteristics is a requirement for identifying an adequate model for any catchment, gauged or ungauged, just based on information about its climate and catchment properties. As parameter uncertainty increases with the number of model parameters, it is important not only to identify a model achieving good results but also to aim at the simplest model still able to provide acceptable results. The main objective of this study is to identify the climate and catchment properties determining the minimal required complexity of a hydrological model. As previous studies indicate that the required model complexity varies with the temporal scale, the study considers the performance at the daily, monthly, and annual timescales. In agreement with previous studies, the results show that catchments located in arid areas tend to be more difficult to model. They therefore require more complex models for achieving an acceptable performance. For determining which other factors influence model performance, an analysis was carried out for four catchment groups (snowy, arid, and eastern and western catchments). The results show that the baseflow and aridity indices are the most consistent predictors of model performance across catchment groups and timescales. Both properties are negatively correlated with model performance. Other relevant predictors are the fraction of snow in the annual precipitation (negative correlation with model performance), soil depth (negative correlation with model performance), and some other soil properties. It was observed that the sign of the correlation between the catchment characteristics and model performance varies between clusters in some cases, stressing the difficulties encountered in large sample analyses. Regarding the impact of the timescale, the study confirmed previous results indicating that more complex models are needed for shorter timescales.  相似文献   

Characterization of sudden and sustained base flow jump hydrologic behaviour in the humid seasonal tropics of the Panama Canal Watershed     

Yanyan Cheng  Fred L. Ogden  Jianting Zhu 《水文研究》2020,34(3):569-582

Base flows are important for tropical regions with pronounced dry seasons, which are facing increasing water demands. Base flow generation, however, is one of the most challenging hydrological processes to characterize in the tropics. In many years during the May–December wet season in the Panama Canal Watershed (PCW), base flows in rivers abruptly increase. This increase persists until the start of the December–April dry season. Understanding this unusual base flow jump (BFJ) behaviour is critical to improve water provisioning in the seasonal tropics, especially during droughts and extended dry seasons. This study developed an integrated approach combining piecewise regression on cumulative average base flow and sensitivity analysis to calculate the timing and magnitude of BFJ. Rainfall, forest cover, mean land surface slope, catchment area, and estimated subsurface storage were tested as predictors for the occurrence and magnitude of the BFJs in seven subcatchments of the PCW. Sensitivity analysis on correlated predictors allowed ranking of predictor contributions due to isolated and cross-correlation effects. Correlations between observed BFJs and BFJs predicted by watershed and rainfall-related predictors were 0.92 and 0.65 for BFJ timing and magnitude, respectively. Forest cover was the second most significant predictor after cumulative rainfall for jump magnitude, owing to larger subsurface storage and groundwater recharge in forests than pastures. Catchments in the mountainous eastern PCW always generated larger jumps due to their higher rainfall and greater forest cover than the western PCW catchments. The cross-correlations between predictors contributed to more than 50% of the jump variances. The results demonstrate the importance of rainfall gradient and catchment characteristics in affecting the sudden and sustained BFJs, which can help inform land management decisions intended to enhance water supplies in the tropics. This study underscores the need for more research to further understand the hydrological processes involved in the BFJ phenomenon, including better BFJ models and field characterizations, to help improve tropical ecosystem services under a changing environment.  相似文献   

Using hysteretic behaviour and hydrograph classification to identify hydrological function across the “hillslope–depression–stream” continuum in a karst catchment     

Runrun Zhang  Xi Chen  Zhicai Zhang  Chris Soulsby 《水文研究》2020,34(16):3464-3480

In cockpit karst landscapes, fluxes from upland areas contribute large volumes of water to low-lying depressions and stream flow. Hydrograph hysteresis and similarity between monitoring sites is important for understanding the space–time variability of hydrologic responses across the “hillslope–depression–stream” continuum. In this study, the hysteretic feature of hydrographs was assessed by characterizing the loop-like relationships between responses at upstream sites relative to subsurface discharge at the outlet of a small karst catchment. A classification of hydrograph responses based on the multi-scale smoothing Kernel -derived distance classifies the hydrograph responses on the basis of similarities between hillslope and depression sites, and those at the catchment outlet. Results demonstrate that the temporal and spatial variability of hydrograph hysteresis and similarity between hillslope flow and outlet stream flow can be explained by the local heterogeneity of depression aquifer. Large depression storage deficits emerging in the highly heterogeneous aquifer produce strong hysteresis and multiple relationships of upstream hydrographs relative to the outlet subsurface discharge. In contrast, when depression storage deficits are filled during consecutive rainfall events, depression hydrographs at the high permeability sites are almost synchronous or exhibit a monotonous function with the hydrographs at the outlet. This reduced hydrograph hysteresis enhances preferential flow paths in fractured rocks and conduits that can accelerate the hillslope flow to the outlet. Therefore, classification of hydrograph similarities between any upstream sites and the catchment outlet can help to identify the dominant hydrological functions in the heterogeneous karst catchment.  相似文献   

基岩倾角对盆地地震响应的影响分析          下载免费PDF全文

卓发成 《地震工程学报》2020,42(4):1035-1042

为了研究盆地基岩倾角对盆地地表动力反应的影响,选取了一个跨度2 km,深度500 m的二维成层盆地为研究对象进行有限元动力反应分析。以持时0.25 s的狄拉克脉冲作为输入地震动,探讨了P波和SV波垂直入射时,盆地基岩倾角从10°\,20°\,30°\,40°依次增加的情况下盆地地震反应。结果表明:入射波在倾斜基岩处发生波型转化,同时产生面波,在盆地中心区域发生汇聚;随着基岩倾角的增加地表中心处的卓越频率有减小的趋势。  相似文献   

农机投入对农业GTFP影响及门槛效应的区域差异分析     

刘敏  姜会明  姜天龙 《地理科学》2020,40(12):2037-2045

按照粮食的产销情况，将全国划分为3类粮食功能区域，利用固定效应模型和门槛效应模型分析了农机投入对农业绿色全要素生产率（GTFP）的影响及门槛效应的区域差异。结果表明：农机投入对农业GTFP的影响程度存在区域异质性，农机投入对粮食主销区农业GTFP提升的促进作用最大，粮食产销平衡区次之，粮食主产区最小；农机投入对农业GTFP的影响路径亦存在区域差异，粮食主产区和产销平衡区的农机投入通过促进农业技术效率和农业技术进步进而推动农业GTFP提升，粮食主销区的农机投入通过促进农业技术进步推动农业GTFP提升；农机投入对粮食主产区农业GTFP的影响存在双门槛效应，对粮食主销区和产销平衡区农业GTFP的影响存在单门槛效应。  相似文献   

社区关系、效益感知与亲旅游行为研究：一个有调节的中介作用模型          下载免费PDF全文

李东  崔春雨  马长发  关靖云  陈玥彤  王玉清 《干旱区地理》2020,43(4):1098-1107

目的地居民作为旅游活动的重要参与主体,对旅游业的行为态度不仅影响着游客的感知和体验,也对目的地旅游业的可持续发展起着重要作用。在旅游支持态度与亲环境行为等相关研究的基础上,提出亲旅游行为的概念,表达居民促进旅游业在当地更好发展的行为意向。以社会表征理论研究框架为基础,构建“社区关系—效益感知—行为态度”模型,实证考察了社区关系对亲旅游行为的影响,探讨了旅游效益感知的中介作用和旅游事件依恋的调节作用。结果表明：社区关系对目的地居民经济效益、社会效益、环境效益感知均具有显著的正向影响,积极的旅游影响感知又对亲旅游行为产生显著的正向影响作用。居民对经济、社会、环境效益的感知在社区关系与亲旅游行为之间存在多重链式中介作用,传统的中介模型低估了旅游效益感知的影响作用。旅游事件依恋正向调节了社区关系与旅游社会效益感知、环境效益感知的关系。研究结论为揭示旅游介入情境下社区关系、效益感知与亲旅游行为之间的影响机制提供了一定的理论依据,对于目的地社区旅游开发与管理具有一定的实践参考价值。  相似文献   

1981—2018 年庆阳市气候舒适度特征分析及评价          下载免费PDF全文

张可心 《干旱区地理》2020,43(5):1270-1277

为了对庆阳市气候资源特征进行分析和评价，指导当地城乡规划建设及旅游业的发展，利 用庆阳市 1981—2018 年 8 个气象观测站逐日气温、降水、风速、相对湿度、日照时数等资料，计算当 地气候舒适度的 4 种参数，分析庆阳市气候舒适度时空变化特征，结果表明：庆阳市春季、秋季偏 冷，夏无酷暑，温暖舒适，冬季寒冷，较不舒适；温湿指数、风效指数、穿衣指数年际变化特征显示， 四季气候均有向暖发展的趋势，春季和夏季变化趋势极显著，秋季和冬季变化显著性较弱；综合指 数年际波动大，夏季气候趋于不舒适，其余季节均趋于舒适；气候舒适期年内分布特征显示，5～9 月 为全市气候舒适期，适合开展旅游活动；5 月和 9 月舒适度空间分布的总体特征是西部高，东部低， 6～8 月均为东南部高，西部、北部低；舒适度月变化总体特征为，5 月＞6 月＞9 月＞8 月＞7 月。  相似文献   

柴达木盆地尕斯库勒湖区盐生植物改良土壤盐渍化效应及其贡献评价          下载免费PDF全文

余冬梅  祁兆鑫  胡夏嵩  刘亚斌  王建萍  李姜瑶 《盐湖研究》2020,28(4):91-101

在柴达木盆地尕斯库勒盐湖区,通过对芦苇、赖草、海韭菜、无脉苔草、洽草、盐地风毛菊、羊齿天门冬、小花棘豆和白刺9种盐生植物生长区土壤容重、含水量、全盐量、pH值、全氮、速效钾、速效磷进行测试分析,研究其对盐渍化土壤的改良效果。试验结果表明:9种盐生植物均可降低土壤容重、全盐量和pH值,提高土壤含水量,其平均全盐量较裸地降低了3.79%~85.40%,平均降低幅度为44.99%,小花棘豆降低土壤容重相对较为显著(17.39%),无脉苔草相对较差(1.37%)；盐地风毛菊降低土壤pH值的能力相对较强(5.11%),羊齿天门冬相对较弱；赖草提高土壤含水量相对较为显著(26.05%),白刺相对较差(1.85%)。9种盐生植物可不同程度增加土壤全氮含量,且随取样深度增加全氮含量呈逐渐降低的变化趋势；9种盐生植物坡面地表以下垂直方向0~20 cm土体速效磷含量表现出增加趋势,其中在地表以下20~50 cm位置速效磷含量增加相对较为显著,土体速效磷含量增加的程度由大至小依次为:小花棘豆、赖草、无脉苔草、海韭菜、白刺、羊齿天门冬、芦苇、洽草和盐地风毛菊。研究结果对于利用盐生植物防治土壤盐渍化,以及进一步提高土壤可持续利用有实际价值。  相似文献   

动态应力触发研究进展     

陈昊  冀战波  王琼  苏金波 《中国地震》2020,36(3):442-459

本文从库仑破裂应力与动态应力触发原理、观测事实与研究现状以及存在的问题与展望等3个方面介绍了动态应力触发的研究进展。其中,在主震对余震活动、强震对后续远场地震活动、不同破裂类型的地震之间及强震对火山(泥火山)的动态应力触发作用、一次大地震中子事件之间的动态应力触发关系以及动态应力触发的时间延迟等方面进行了详细讨论。分析认为,动态应力触发理论在解释震后余震分布、远程触发以及对火山触发性喷发等方面得到了较好的结果;动态应力触发可能会受断层破裂方式和方向的影响;大地震中子事件之间的动态应力触发关系对震源研究有重要意义;动态应力触发现象普遍存在时间延迟。  相似文献   

基于钻进状态监测的智能工况识别          下载免费PDF全文

范海鹏  吴敏  曹卫华  赖旭芝  陈略峰  陆承达 《探矿工程》2020,47(4):106-113

钻进过程状态监测旨在实时描述钻进工况，判断运行性能优劣程度进行非优追溯，及时指导司钻人员调整作业操作,保证钻进过程安全、高效、稳定开展。钻进工况是钻进系统运行状态的反映，因此开展面向状态监测技术的钻进工况识别研究具有重要的理论和应用价值。本文针对钻进工况识别问题，基于状态监测数据，建立基于支持向量机的钻进工况识别模型，对钻进工况进行识别。综合工况识别结果，对钻进效率进行评估，并对影响钻进效率的因素进行讨论，寻找提升钻进效率的手段。最后，采用钻进现场实钻数据进行仿真实验,验证所提方法的可行性和有效性。  相似文献