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Sub-surface temperature fields may be considerably affected by active ground water systems, thereby seriously hampering the interpretation of heat flow data. Quantitative evaluation of the convective component of heat transfer is thus very important in cases such as large sedimentary basins with vast underground water circulation. We propose in this study a simple model of horizontal aquifer. This model was used to examine the effect of the lateral convection on the surface heat flow near the recharge zone of basinal margins. The perturbation of the heat flow field above the aquifer was calculated for various aquifer geometry and various flow velocities and the regional scale dependence of the perturbation on the hydraulic properties of the aquifer was demonstrated. The model was applied to the Bohemian Cretaceous Basin and it was shown that within a few kilometres from the recharge zones the observed surface heat flow may be underestimated by up to several tens of percent. The procedure was tested in two locations in this area, in an attempt to make hydrogeological corrections to the measured heat flow values in several boreholes.  相似文献
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Numerical techniques for subsurface flow and transport modeling are often limited by computational limitations including fine mesh and small time steps to control artificial dispersion. Particle-tracking simulation offers a robust alternative for modeling solute transport in subsurface formations. However, the modeling scale usually differs substantially from the rock measurement scale, and the scale-up of measurements have to be made accounting for the pattern of spatial heterogeneity exhibited at different scales. Therefore, it is important to construct accurate coarse-scale simulations that are capable of capturing the uncertainties in reservoir and transport attributes due to scale-up. A statistical scale-up procedure developed in our previous work is extended by considering the effects of unresolved (residual) heterogeneity below the resolution of the finest modeling scale in 3D. First, a scale-up procedure based on the concept of volume variance is employed to construct realizations of permeability and porosity at the (coarse) transport modeling scale, at which flow or transport simulation is performed. Next, to compute various effective transport parameters, a series of realizations exhibiting detailed heterogeneities at the fine scale, whose domain size is the same as the transport modeling scale, are generated. These realizations are subjected to a hybrid particle-tracking simulation. Probabilistic transition time is considered, borrowing the idea from the continuous time random walk (CTRW) technique to account for any sub-scale heterogeneity at the fine scale level. The approach is validated against analytical solutions and general CTRW formulation. Finally, coarse-scale transport variables (i.e., dispersivities and parameterization of transition time distribution) are calibrated by minimizing the mismatch in effluent history with the equivalent averaged models. Construction of conditional probability distributions of effective parameters is facilitated by integrating the results over the entire suite of realizations. The proposed method is flexible, as it does not invoke any explicit assumption regarding the multivariate distribution of the heterogeneity. In contrast to other hierarchical CTRW formulation for modeling multi-scale heterogeneities, the proposed approach does not impose any length scale requirement regarding sub-grid heterogeneities. In fact, it aims to capture the uncertainty in effective reservoir and transport properties due to the presence of heterogeneity at the intermediate scale, which is larger than the finest resolution of heterogeneity but smaller than the representative elementary volume, but it is often comparable to the transport modeling scale.  相似文献
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The classic univariate risk measure in environmental sciences is the Return Period (RP). The RP is traditionally defined as “the average time elapsing between two successive realizations of a prescribed event”. The notion of design quantile related with RP is also of great importance. The design quantile represents the “value of the variable(s) characterizing the event associated with a given RP”. Since an individual risk may strongly be affected by the degree of dependence amongst all risks, the need for the provision of multivariate design quantiles has gained ground. In contrast to the univariate case, the design quantile definition in the multivariate setting presents certain difficulties. In particular, Salvadori, G., De Michele, C. and Durante F. define in the paper called “On the return period and design in a multivariate framework” (Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 15:3293–3305, 2011) the design realization as the vector that maximizes a weight function given that the risk vector belongs to a given critical layer of its joint multivariate distribution function. In this paper, we provide the explicit expression of the aforementioned multivariate risk measure in the Archimedean copula setting. Furthermore, this measure is estimated by using Extreme Value Theory techniques and the asymptotic normality of the proposed estimator is studied. The performance of our estimator is evaluated on simulated data. We conclude with an application on a real hydrological data-set.  相似文献
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An analysis of local seismicity within the Klyuchevskoi Volcanic Cluster and Shiveluch Volcano for the period 2000–2017 revealed a sequence of plane-oriented earthquake clusters that are interpreted here as the emplacement of dikes and sills (magmatic fracking). The geometry of magma bodies reflects the geomechanical conditions in volcanic plumbing systems and at the bases of the volcanoes. Magmatic fracking within active magmatic plumbing systems results in the formation of permeable reservoirs whose vertical extent can reach 35 km (Klyuchevskoi) and can be as wide as 15 km across (Shiveluch), depending on the geomechanical condition of the host rocks. These reservoirs will be the arena of subsequent hydrothermal circulation, producing geothermal and ore fields, as well as hydrocarbon fields. TOUGH2-EOS1sc simulation tools were used to estimate the conditions for the formation of hydrothermal reservoirs at temperatures below 1200°С and pressures below 1000 bars.  相似文献
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Variational data assimilation methods optimize the match between an observed and a predicted field. These methods normally require information on error variances of both the analysis and the observations, which are sometimes difficult to obtain for transport and dispersion problems. Here, the variational problem is set up as a minimization problem that directly minimizes the root mean squared error of the difference between the observations and the prediction. In the context of atmospheric transport and dispersion, the solution of this optimization problem requires a robust technique. A genetic algorithm (GA) is used here for that solution, forming the GA-Variational (GA-Var) technique. The philosophy and formulation of the technique is described here. An advantage of the technique includes that it does not require observation or analysis error covariances nor information about any variables that are not directly assimilated. It can be employed in the context of either a forward assimilation problem or used to retrieve unknown source or meteorological information by solving the inverse problem. The details of the method are reviewed. As an example application, GA-Var is demonstrated for predicting the plume from a volcanic eruption. First the technique is employed to retrieve the unknown emission rate and the steering winds of the volcanic plume. Then that information is assimilated into a forward prediction of its transport and dispersion. Concentration data are derived from satellite data to determine the observed ash concentrations. A case study is made of the March 2009 eruption of Mount Redoubt in Alaska. The GA-Var technique is able to determine a wind speed and direction that matches the observations well and a reasonable emission rate.  相似文献
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The Cheliff region has experienced some significant earthquakes in the last century (1937, 1954, and 1980). The most destructive one is that of El Asnam on October 10, 1980, Ms = 7.3 (Io = IX), which destroyed the Chlef city (formerly El Asnam) and its surrounding villages. On December 16, 2006 a moderate earthquake (Mw = 5.0) hit the Cheliff region. The maximum observed intensity (Io = V: MSK-scale) was observed at Abou El Hassen, Benaria, Bouzghaïa and Tadjena. No damages or human losses were recorded. Nevertheless, minor cracks on walls of the old school at Tadjena were observed. The point source focal mechanism of the event was determined by inverting the waveforms of three regional broadband stations of the ADSN (Algerian Digital Seismic Network). It corresponds to thrust-reverse faulting with a strike-slip component. The stress tensor obtained by the inversion of the 15 focal mechanisms available in the Cheliff region exhibits a well constrained compression axis σ1 horizontal and trending N145°. The NW dipping nodal plane indicating a NE–SW thrust fault with a right-lateral component (strike, dip, rake = 249, 38, 137) is more compatible with the regional stress tensor than the steep dipping NNE-SSW nodal plane showing reverse faulting with a left-lateral component (strike, dip, rake = 15, 65, 60). Accordingly, the Tadjena moderate size earthquake can be related to the Boukadir active fault bordering the lower Cheliff basin to the north, a situation similar to that of the El Asnam fault bordering the middle Cheliff basin to the north.  相似文献
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The vernal pool fairy shrimp (Branchinecta lynchi) (Eng et al. in J Crustac Biol 10:247–277, 1990) is broadly distributed throughout California’s Central Valley with disjunct populations in southern California and southern Oregon. A survey of genetic variation at the mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase subunit I (COI) gene was conducted from individuals collected throughout the range of the species. Phylogenetic analysis of unique haplotypes could not resolve any significant genetic partitions below the species level. A detailed analysis of samples from two pools indicates that sample sizes underestimate overall variation, but that the general phylogeographic pattern still holds. Evidence was found for a putative long-distance dispersal event between Central Valley sites and the Oregon site. These results indicate that geographically limiting stochastic colonization followed by local diversification may be important in governing current genetic structure for this species. Future and current conservation/restoration efforts should recognize the geographic limitations to population structure for this species and focus on local endemic genetic variation.  相似文献
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