排序方式: 共有9条查询结果,搜索用时 78 毫秒
1
1.
2.
3.
针对西太平洋副热带高压中长期预报不准确的问题,基于动力系统反演思想和改进自忆性原理等途径建立了副高脊线指数的动力预报模型.本文创新性地引入了最大李雅普诺夫指数改进了传统的自忆性函数,使其对副热带高压之类的混沌非线性系统更加具有针对性,较好地克服了预报初值单一性问题;并根据实际观测资料重构的动力系统作为其动力核,克服了传统自忆性方程动力核设置较为简单的问题.用建立的副热带高压脊线指数动力预报模型实现了副高南北位置的中长期预报,通过了副高异常年份和正常年份的多次实验,可以发现模型在25天以内的预报效果很好,相关系数能达到0.80左右,相对误差控制在8%以下,证明了改进的模型具有较好的中长期预报效果.另外还将此模型推广到对副热带高压的面积指数和西脊点指数的预报,也取得了较好的预报效果,证明此方法适合于副热带高压的整体预报.鉴于西太副高发生发展机理的复杂性和预报的困难性,本文为副高等复杂天气系统的预报探索了新的方法思路. 相似文献
4.
Analysis of Seismic Activity in the Middle Part of the North-South Seismic Belt—Joint Study on Deep Seismic Sounding Profile and Seismicity Parameters
下载免费PDF全文

Using the rich deep seismic sounding data recorded in the middle part of the North-South Seismic Belt in China, the horizontal and vertical profiles are constructed to obtain the seismic velocity structure, analyze the seismic distribution and calculate the seismic energy and the thickness of the seismogenic layer at the same time. On this basis, the seismicity parameters are calculated using the earthquake catalogue of the study area for the past 40 years, and the relationship between the b-value distribution and the velocity structure is analyzed. The results show an uneven b-value distribution in the study area and a segmented feature along the Longmenshan fault zone. Most of the earthquakes occur in the transition zone anomalies from the positive to the negative. In addition, the thickness of the crust drops from ~60 km to ~48 km from the Southeastern to the Northeastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, but the thickness of the seismogenic layer increases gradually. It is speculated that the crustal composition of the Northeastern margin contains more felsic materials and has relatively stronger seismic activities than the Southeastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, possibly associated with the subduction and compression of the Indian Ocean Plate. 相似文献
5.
A Novel Approach for Estimating Debris Flow Velocities from Near-Field Broadband Seismic Observations
下载免费PDF全文

On August 7th, 2010, Sanyanyu and Luojiayu debris flows triggered by a heavy rain have lashed Zhouqu City around midnight, leading to catastrophic destruction which killed 1 765 people and resulted in enormous economic loss. The ZHQ Seismic Station is located approximately 170 m west of the outlet of the Sanyanyu Gully. The seismometer deployed at the seismic station started recording seismic signals of ever-enlarging amplitude around 10 minutes before the debris flow rushed out of the Sanyanyu Gully, showing ever approaching seismic source, i.e. the debris flow. In this study, we analyze this seismic event and propose an inversion algorithm to estimate the velocity of the debris flow by searching the best-fitting pairs of envelopes in the synthetic seismograms and the corresponding field seismic records in a least-square sense. Inversion results reveal that, before rushing out of the outlet, the average velocity of the debris flow gradually increased from 6.2 m/s to 7.1 m/s and finally reached 15 m/s at approximately 0.5 km above the outlet and kept this value since then. Obviously, the ever-increasing velocity of the debris flow is the key factor for the following disasters. Compared with other studies, our approach can provide the velocity distribution for the debris flow before its outbreak; Besides, it has the potential to provide technological support for a better understanding of the disaster process of a debris flow. 相似文献
6.
人工源宽角反射(折射)地震资料具有偏移距较大、信噪比较低等特点,通常用于地震波走时反演重建地壳速度结构。逆时偏移成像方法作为勘探地震学领域获取地下构造形态的有效手段之一,可以有效弥补走时反演方法的不足。本文针对大偏移距宽角反射(折射)地震实验,利用四边形网格谱元法进行波场模拟,结合了有限元法的灵活性和谱方法的指数收敛性,高效且高精度获取模型合成地震记录,后采用逆时偏移成像方法将合成地震记录偏移归位,获取地壳几何结构,验证了逆时偏移成像方法在宽角地震资料处理及结果解释中的适用性,为后期实际地震资料的偏移成像提供了理论依据和支持。 相似文献
7.
8.
北京时间2017年6月24日5时39分左右,四川省茂县叠溪镇新磨村发生大型岩质滑坡.体积约4.3×106 m3的巨型岩体从山顶脱落,顺坡滑行约2.6 km后破碎沉积;碎屑物掩埋了整个新磨村,造成了巨大的人员伤亡和财产损失.本文使用来自滑坡周围的10个地震台站的宽频带观测资料的长周期信号反演了这次滑坡的受力时间函数;同时使用逐步细化的格点搜索方法得到了滑坡的位置,与其真实位置一致;根据反演的受力时间函数计算了滑坡过程中滑体的运动学参数,得到的滑体运动轨迹与实际路径吻合.综合分析地震信号、受力时间函数和运动学参数表明,本次滑坡主运动的持续时间约为79 s;脱落岩体在5∶38∶50.2启动后持续加速,在5∶39∶37.2达到速度峰值,约为52.1 m·s-1;这段时间内岩体没有明显的破碎;之后,岩体开始铲刮并裹挟古滑坡造成的碎屑沉积物,自身也开始破碎解体,总体开始减速运动,直到5∶40∶9.2主运动停止;此后,小规模的碎屑散落又持续了约10 s的时间. 相似文献
9.
1