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7级大震和中强震的前兆异常有本质区别吗? 总被引:3,自引:2,他引:3
据震前次一等地震活动增强、空区和条带等地震活动图像,以及各学科前兆异常持续时间和空间分布等方面,比较了7级经震和中强震的前兆异常特征,结论是没有质的区别,但在量上有明显的差异。中分别对7级强震前5级、6级地震活动增强,和6级地震前4级、5级地震活动增强,选择了时空阈值和预报规则,进行了预报评分检验,得到了肯定的结论。 相似文献
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A trend increase in apparent resistivity has been observed in the N30°E monitoring direction at Garze Seismic Station since July 2011. This increase trend in geo-electric resistivity has been observed in the N60°W direction since 2012. During the period of the increase, the national highway No.317 was expanded in the monitoring area, so the potential electrodes in the N30°E direction had to be moved 10m towards the current electrodes. We interpreted the electric sounding data of Garz6 Seismic Station with a horizontally layered model. Analysis based on this model showed that the shift of potential electrodes can cause a 4 l-l.m rise to the measurements in the N30°E direction. Therefore, apparent resistivity of the two directions increased in the same time in 2012 after offsetting the effects from electrodes shift. Sensitivity coefficients of the two observation directions were also obtained using the model. Sensitivity coefficients of both directions were negative for the shallow layers, which can well explain the unexpected annual variations of Garze Seismic Station. In order to quantitatively analyze the effects from the expansion of the national highway on the observation, we constructed a finite element model based on the electrical structure. Analysis results also suggested that the expansion of the national highway could only cause a 0. 15 Ω·m decrease in the N60°W monitoring direction and 0. 1 Ω· m increase in the N30°E direction. Additionally, the valley values of annual variation of 2013 were distinctively higher than that of other years since 2008, meaning that there was an abnormal rise in apparent resistivity in the two observation directions at Garz~ Seismic Station before the Lushan earthquake. However, the rise was contrary to the decline variation before the Wenchuan earthquake. Therefore, it is still unsure whether or not the rise variation is related to the Lushan earthquake. 相似文献
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MODIS亮温增温异常点比值的时序分析方法及其在台湾一些5级以上地震前的异常变化 总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4
首次提出了MODIS卫星遥感数据用于地震预测研究的MODIS亮温增温异常点比值定量化方法以及尽量减少云层干扰的初步方案。结合近期台湾地区一系列中强地震的震例研究,归纳了分析区域内中强地震前的MODIS亮温增温异常的量化指标。研究表明,大部分研究震例在地震发生前1~20天都出现了突跳性质的增温异常比值(活跃度)增强的情况,而正常情况下增温异常比值都在零值附近波动。利用在一定程度上排除了云层影响的MODIS卫星遥感热红外信息得到的亮温增温异常点比值的变化,在一些多震地区有针对性地系统开展研究,有望找到识别地震短临前兆的一种新方法 相似文献
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研究了汶川8.0级地震前四川地区模拟和数字地电、地磁类观测资料。四川地区地电6台站的26测项模拟观测,在汶川8.0级地震前仅出现1项中期异常,异常台站比1/6=0.17;异常测项比为1/26=0.04。对"九五"到"十五"期间四川地区数字化改造或数字地电观测资料,没有分析检测出异常项。四川地区6个台的地磁垂直分量整点值的日变形态在震前2天出现波谷分裂的异常现象,由于平时出现此类异常频繁,若用于预测无统计学的显著意义。可见汶川8.0级地震前四川地区地电和地磁类观测资料结果出现的异常现象比例是极低的。同时对疑似或有争议的异常测项进行分析说明,对汶川8.0级地震前电磁类异常少的原因进行了讨论。 相似文献
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2013年芦山MS7.0地震前甘孜台地电阻率变化分析 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
甘孜台地电阻率N30°E测道观测资料自2011年7月开始出现趋势上升变化,N60°W测道地电阻率则从2012年出现趋势上升变化.2011年测区原317国道实施扩建工程,N30°E测道测量电极分别向供电极方向移动10m.采用甘孜台电测深曲线以水平层状模型反演了测区的电性结构,理论计算表明,测量电极的移动将会引起N30°E测道4Ω·m的上升变化,扣除这部分变化后,甘孜台两测道观测值于2012年同步上升.以水平层状模型计算了甘孜台两测道各层介质的影响系数,两测道浅层两层介质影响系数均为负,能合理地解释甘孜台地电阻率在雨季降水量增加时观测值上升、旱季降水量减少时观测值下降这一“夏高冬低”的年变现象.建立三维有限元模型计算了317国道拓宽部分对观测的影响,计算结果表明,拓宽部分仅能引起N60°W测道约0.15Ω·m的下降变化和N30°E测道约0.1Ω ·m的上升变化,其对观测的影响非常小.同时2013年1月甘孜台两测道年变低值显著高于2008年以来各年的年变低值,在芦山地震前呈同步的上升变化,但是与汶川地震前的下降变化相反,因此甘孜台自2012年的趋势上升变化是不是芦山地震的前兆异常还难以确定. 相似文献