新冠肺炎疫情扩散与人口流动的空间关系及对中国城市公共卫生分类治理启示     

向云波  王圣云 《热带地理》2020,40(3):408-421

人口流动影响新冠肺炎疫情传播与风险扩散。基于百度迁徙大数据和各省市区卫生健康委员会数据，结合地理信息技术，研究了2020年1月1日至3月5日136个城市新冠肺炎疫情扩散与武汉市人口流出的空间关系及其对我国城市公共卫生治理启示。研究表明：1）中国新冠肺炎疫情扩散过程具有阶段性特征，经历了疫情发生与隐性扩散、快速扩散与暴发、扩散遏制和扩散衰减4个阶段。2）研究时间段武汉市人口主要流向湖北省境内以及周边省市和北京、上海、广州、深圳等一线城市，具有地理邻近性和倾向区域中心城市的人口流入特征。受地理距离、时间成本、社会经济联系、境外输入等因素的影响，新冠肺炎疫情空间分布的不平衡性明显，长江中游城市群、京津冀城市群、长三角城市群、粤港澳大湾区和成渝城市群成为新冠肺炎疫情集中分布的重点区域，一些重点出入境口岸城市的新冠疫情扩散风险较大。3）新冠肺炎疫情扩散与人口流出之间具有较强的正向等级相关性。两者之间的空间关系可以分为8种调控类型，近90%的城市具有人口流入多、确诊病例数高或人口流入少、确诊病例数低的特征。其中，人口流入多、确诊病例数高的城市主要集中分布在湖北省境内以及中国重点城市群的中心城市，其防控压力来自人口流入多、确诊病例数高带来的疫情扩散风险；而人口流入少、确诊病例数低的城市分布较为分散，其防控的难点在于提高防控对策的精准性。我国疫情防控取得了显著成效，但随着时间的演进全球疫情形势反弹的不确定性仍然存在，外防输入、内防反弹的压力依然很重，现阶段乃至未来一段时期，疫情防控将伴随中国经济社会发展成为新常态。建议针对8种调控类型，从人口流动、交通和资源等引导与管控方面分类提出精细化的疫情防控策略，提升城市公共卫生治理能力。  相似文献   

我国华东与西南县域主要气象敏感性疾病变化特征及其医疗费用研究     

王嘉鑫  石彦军  卢山  冯鑫媛  王式功  张莹 《沙漠与绿洲气象(新疆气象)》2019,13(6):133-140

摘要：针对目前医疗费用不断上涨的现实问题,基于安徽省阜南县和贵州省锦屏县相关医疗机构的全部住院数据和气象资料,首先分析两县疾病谱特征,然后从季节和24节气角度,分析两县主要气象敏感性疾病（因天气和气候异常变化而诱发或加重的相关疾病）住院人次和医疗费用的变化特征以及人体舒适度对当地主要气象敏感性疾病发病的影响。结果表明,阜南县和锦屏县人群中住院人数最多的疾病分别是循环和呼吸系统两大类气象敏感性疾病,医疗费用最高的前六位疾病都包含循环、呼吸和消化系统疾病,其三者医疗费用总和分别占两县总医疗费用的44.9%和45.8%,因此,从降低医疗费用的角度来看加强这三类主要气象敏感性疾病的预防十分重要。此外,三种系统疾病医疗费用呈现出明显的季节变化特征：其中,循环系统疾病的医疗费用在季节转换期间明显高于各季节内,呼吸系统疾病冬春季的医疗费用远高于夏秋季节,消化系统疾病夏季医疗费用最高。两县9月的体感温度最接近人体最佳舒适温度,而此时上述三类疾病的住院人次及医疗费用也是相对低点。此研究结果可为当地相关疾病的适时防控、有效降低医疗费用提供科学依据。  相似文献   

近场强震动记录基线校正方法的振动台实验研究     

卢滔  胡国瑞  何福  郭迅  霍敬妍 《震灾防御技术》2017,12(3):625-634

为了获取近场永久位移，通常采用基线校正方法，对近场加速度记录进行基线校正并积分得到永久位移值，但这一结果主观性较强，其可靠性也往往缺乏验证。为了解决这一问题，本文提出了一种能产生包含永久位移振动过程的振动台实验方案，采用振动台加滑动机构的方法，模拟记录到永久位移台站测点的真实振动情况；在实验中分别采用加速度计、摄影测量方法分别直接得到加速度和位移时程，对加速度时程进行基线校正并积分得到位移时程，将其与直接获得的位移时程进行对比，以验证采用基线校正方法的有效性。实验结果表明，在实验室条件下采用现有的基线校正方法校正后，通过积分能得到可以接受的位移时程。  相似文献   

Shaking-table tests and numerical simulations on a subway structure in soft soil     

《Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering》2015

Shaking table tests were performed to investigate the damage mechanisms of a subway structure in soft soil while experiencing strong ground motions. The seismic responses of the structure and soil were found to be more sensitive to input motions with richer low-frequency components. The excess pore pressure ratio of soil increased slightly, and the distribution of the excess pore pressure surrounding the structure showed clear spatial effects. The frequency spectrum characteristics of input ground motions clearly influenced the lateral displacement of the structure. In addition, the structure was most severely damaged at the top or the bottom of the interior columns. Finite element analyses were conducted by using the modified Martin–Seed–Davidenkov viscoelastic and the rate-independent plastic-damage constitutive models for soil and concrete, respectively. Satisfactory agreement was observed between the simulation and test results, the difference between these results was discussed in detail. The results provide insight into how the characteristics of strong ground motion might influence and present a simplified analysis method to quantitatively evaluate the damage of subway structures in soft soil.  相似文献   

西藏典型单层混凝土砌块房屋打包带加固抗震试验研究          下载免费PDF全文

孙柏涛  黄佩蒂  姚新强  周强 《世界地震工程》2018,34(1):040-50

本文以振动台试验方式研究了打包带加固对西藏典型单层混凝土砌块房屋抗震性能的影响，同时考虑了结构平面布置、抗震设防及砌筑质量三个因素。选取3种西藏地区民居的经典户型制作了7个1∶3缩尺模型进行振动台试验，模型分别为3个无打包带加固模型、3个有打包带加固模型以及1个加固一半的模型。试验结果表明打包带加固墙体能明显提高墙体的整体性，减轻墙体震损；无打包带加固但砌筑质量好的单层民居抗震能力较好，基本满足当地9度设防的要求；高烈度下平面布置不规则的结构容易因扭转作用而发生破坏，圈梁、构造柱也在高烈度下发挥较大作用。打包带加固技术作为一种经济实用的加固技术可在西藏地区进行推广。  相似文献   

Black band disease as a possible factor of the coral decline at the northern reef-flat of Yongxing Island,South China Sea   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

YANG HongQiang  SHEN JianWei  FU FeiXue  WANG Yue & ZHAO Na 《中国科学:地球科学(英文版)》2014,57(4):569-578

Black band disease(BBD),characterized by the Cyanobacterial dominated pathogenic consortium,is thought to play a key role in the global decline of the coral reef ecosystems.The present paper originally documents a case of BBD from Yongxing Island(Xisha Islands,South China Sea),and further probes the reasons of this abnormal phenomenon.Prior to 2007,corals at northern reef-flat of Yongxing Isand were in healthy growth.Catastrophic coral mortality occurred between 2007 and 2008.The 16S rRNA gene sequencing and PCR amplification,with universally conserved primers,were applied to detect the contagious bacterial community of the microbial mat.The results demonstrated that six bacterial divisions constituted the clone libraries derived from the BBD mat,and that Cyanobacteria are the most diversely represented group that inhabit BBD bacterial mats,despite the fact that species in five others divisions(α-Proteobacteria,γ-Proteobacteria,Bacteroidetes,Verrucomicrobia and Actinobacteria) are also consistently diverse within the BBD mats of diseased coral.Other factors such as coral bleaching,typhoons,ocean acidification and crown-of-thorns starfish outbreaks,are not primarily responsible for the coral mortality within such a short time interval.The disaster expansion of BBD associated with Cyanobacterial blooms is a more likely mechanism impacting these coral reefs.Excessive human activity enhances the eutrophication of the marine water of the reefal region and may result in occurrence of the BBD.  相似文献   

CAP1400核岛结构缩尺模型对地震反应影响分析     

李小军  韩杰  王晓辉  贺秋梅 《震灾防御技术》2017,12(2):241-253

针对核电厂CAP1400核岛结构地震反应问题，构建了核岛屏蔽厂房和辅助厂房整体结构的3个分析模型:原型和1/16、1/40缩尺模型，并在AP000谱和RG1.60谱地震动输入下进行了有限元模拟对比分析，探讨了振动台试验模型缩尺处理的合理性和精确性。研究表明，基于缩尺模型得到的结构自振频率相对于原型结构模型有所降低，降低幅度在8.5%以内；结构模型的缩尺对结构反应峰值加速度和高频（大于3Hz）加速度反应谱的影响较为显著，但对较低频（小于3Hz）的加速度反应谱影响较小；模型缩尺对结构不同方向反应的影响中，刚度越大的方向其影响越大。进一步将结构模型数值模拟结果与1/16缩尺模型的振动台试验结果进行了比较分析，试验给出的结构自振频率远低于模型数值模拟结果，但原型和1/16缩尺模型数值模拟得到的结构反应均与试验结果较为接近。基于模型数值模拟和振动台试验研究，认为对于缩尺比1/16或更大的模型可以忽略模型的缩尺效应。  相似文献   

A GLE-based model for seismic displacement analysis of slopes including strength degradation and geometry rearrangement     

《Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering》2015

Seismic performance of natural slopes, earth structures and solid-waste landfills can be evaluated through displacement-based methods in which permanent displacements induced by earthquake loading are assumed to progressively develop along the critical sliding surface as a result of transient activation of plastic mechanisms within the soil mass. For sliding mechanisms of general shape the earthquake-induced displacements should be computed using a model that provides a closer approximation of sliding surface. When large permanent displacement are induced by seismic actions, due to substantial shear strength reduction, and significant changes in ground surface occur, an improved estimate of permanent displacement can be obtained using a model which accounts for shear strength reduction and mass transfer between adjacent portions of the slope resulting from geometry changes of ground surface during the seismic event.In this paper, a GLE-based model is proposed for seismic displacement analysis of slopes that accounts for shear strength degradation and for geometry rearrangement. Model accuracy is validated against experimental results obtained from shaking table tests carried out on small scale model slopes. Comparison of computed and experimental results demonstrates the capability of the proposed approach in capturing the main features of the observed seismic response of the model slopes.  相似文献   

Characterisation of shear wave velocity profiles of non-uniform bi-layer soil deposits: Analytical evaluation and experimental validation     

《Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering》2015

A crucial aspect of physical geotechnical model tests (under both 1-g and n-g conditions) is the evaluation of the initial (low-strain) stiffness of the soil layers of the sample test deposit, especially in the case of coarse materials. While for uniform soil deposits this issue can be addressed in a straightforward manner, e.g. by determining the fundamental frequency through the transfer function of an applied white-noise excitation, the problem becomes cumbersome for multi-layered deposits. After reviewing a number of available theoretical solutions, this paper illustrates a simplified yet reliable analytical procedure for determining the shear wave velocity profile (V_s) in a single or bi-layer deposit, taking into account the inhomogeneity of the individual soil layers, under the hypothesis of vanishing shear modulus at ground surface. The fundamental natural frequency of the inhomogeneous bi-layer deposit is analysed using the Rayleigh quotient procedure. The associated shape function is evaluated by considering the equilibrium of the soil column under a pseudo-static lateral inertial excitation imposed at its base, accounting for both layering and inhomogeneity. A validation of the proposed method is provided by comparing numerical results obtained from both time- and frequency- domain analyses against experimental data on Leighton Buzzard sand, from a recently-completed research project conducted on the shaking table facility at BLADE Laboratory, University of Bristol (UK).  相似文献   

考虑震源破裂过程的青海玉树地震震动图研究   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

陈鲲  俞言祥  高孟潭  吕红山 《中国地震》2011,27(1):56-64

为了在缺少实时台站数据的情况下,研究震后地表地震动分布,本文尝试通过对震源做出某些约束,以提高震动图的精度.由于青海玉树地震的发震断层近似直立(倾向83°),震源破裂过程在时间和空间上呈明显的分区特征,分别考虑了地表破裂的线源发生模型和主震震级分解方法,用考虑了场地效应的震动图快速生成方法生成震动图.将两种方法生成的震动图与调查烈度比较.结果表明,基于震源破裂过程对主震震级进行分解,综合考虑各子事件生成震动图的方法,对震后的应急决策和灾情的快速评估是可行的.  相似文献