Forests and floods: Using field evidence to reconcile analysis methods     

James C. Bathurst  Barry Fahey  Andrés Iroumé  Julia Jones 《水文研究》2020,34(15):3295-3310

The extent to which forests, relative to shorter vegetation, mitigate flood peak discharges remains controversial and relatively poorly researched, with only a few significant field studies. Considering the effect purely of change of vegetation cover, peak flow magnitude comparisons for paired catchments have suggested that forests do not mitigate large floods, whereas flood frequency comparisons have shown that forests mitigate frequencies over all magnitudes of flood. This study investigates the apparent inconsistency using field-based evidence from four contrasting field programmes at scales of 0.34–3.1 km². Repeated patterns are identified that provide strong evidence of real effects with physical explanations. Magnitude and frequency comparisons are both relevant to the impact of forests on peak discharges but address different questions. Both can show a convergence of response between forested and grassland/logged states at the highest recorded flows but the associated return periods may be quite variable and are subject to estimation uncertainty. For low to moderate events, the forested catchments have a lower peak magnitude for a given frequency than the grassland/logged catchments. Depending on antecedent soil saturation, a given storm may nevertheless generate peak discharges of the same magnitude for both catchment states but these peaks will have different return periods. The effect purely of change in vegetation cover may be modified by additional forestry interventions, such as road networks and drainage ditches which, by effectively increasing the drainage density, may increase peak flows for all event magnitudes. For all the sites, forest cover substantially reduces annual runoff.  相似文献   

中国市域居民住房支付能力时空演变及影响因素          下载免费PDF全文

康珈瑜  索志辉  梁留科  买哲  方明 《干旱区地理》2019,42(5):1153-1165

利用泰尔指数、σ系数、莫兰指数和空间回归模型等方法，对2012—2017年中国大陆346个市域单元收入房价比的时空演变规律进行分析，并探究其影响因素。结果表明：2012—2017年，中国市域单元收入房价比排名整体表现为东部>中部>东北>西部，其相对差异和绝对差异均随时间呈现增大趋势，居民住房支付能力稳步增强。2012—2017年，中国市域单元收入房价比的空间集聚性显著增强，空间分布不均衡性有逐渐增强的趋势。经济水平、城镇化水平、房地产投资水平、城市规模是影响中国市域住房支付能力的主要影响因素，其中，经济水平和城镇化水平对居民住房支付能力具有较大的正向影响，而房地产投资水平和城市规模为负向影响；2012—2017年我国东北和东中西部则不同程度上受不同影响因素的影响。  相似文献   

SEISMIC GEOLOGY     

《Abstract of Chinese Geological Literature》2014,(4)

正20141967An Zhanghui(Lanzhou Base of Institute of Earthquake Prediction,CEA,Lanzhou 730000,China);Du Xuebin Study onthe Geo-Electric Field Variation of Sichuan Lushan MS7.0and Wenchuan MS8.0Earthquake(Chinese Journal of Geophysics,ISSN0001-5733,CN11-2074/P,56(11),  相似文献   

改进的层次分析法与模糊综合评价在评估水库诱发地震震级上限中的应用          下载免费PDF全文

李龙师  金波  冯志仁 《世界地震工程》2020,(3):223-232

为了评估水库诱发地震震级上限，收集了150余例水库诱发地震的震例资料；利用改进的层次分析法优化了各评价指标的权重；应用模糊综合评价方法评估了水库诱发地震震级上限；结合二滩水电站水库诱发地震实例与目前评估水库诱发地震震级最常用的灰色聚类分析法的评价结果进行了对比分析。结果表明:层次分析法与模糊综合评价相结合的震级上限评估方法评价结果更加可靠，可对水库及水工建筑物的建设位置及抗震设防提供参考。  相似文献   

应急演练中基于G-R关系的主余型地震余震震级模拟     

王青平  王辉山  肖健  林岩钊  周施文  张树君 《震灾防御技术》2018,13(1):187-194

在现有的日常地震演练过程中，与应急救援密切相关的地震余震信息产品较为缺乏，直接影响发震构造的判断以及影响场修正等关键环节。本文从计算机系统提供的均匀分布随机数出发，运用反函数法模拟生成余震序列，并进行系统检验，证实该方法产生的余震序列满足G-R频次关系。模拟生成的余震震级数据既有助于增强地震应急救援演练的现实性，也有助于丰富地震应急宣传产品，提升地震部门的履职能力。  相似文献   

Study on the Moment Magnitude of Small and Moderate Earthquakes Located in the Inner Mongolia Region     

Liu Fang  Zhang Fan  Li Bin  Na Re 《中国地震研究》2018,32(1):53-63

Based on digital seismic waveform data from Inner Mongolia Digital Seismic Network, the source spectrum parameters of 182 small and moderate earthquakes from January, 2009 to September, 2016 are derived, and the seismic moment M₀ and moment magnitude M_W of the earthquakes are calculated. The M_L-M_W relationship and the relationship between stress drop and magnitude are obtained using the linear regression method. It is clear that incorporating the moment magnitude into the seismic quick report catalog and the official earthquake catalog can enrich earthquake observation report content, thus providing better service for earthquake emergency and earthquake scientific research.  相似文献   

Moment Magnitude and Its Calculation     

Chen Yuntai  Liu Ruifeng 《中国地震研究》2018,32(4):447-455

In this paper, we give a brief introduction to the proposal and development history of the earthquake magnitude concept. Moment magnitude M_W is the best physical quantity for measuring earthquakes. Compared with other magnitude scales used traditionally, moment magnitude is not saturated for all earthquakes, regardless of big and small earthquakes, deep and shallow earthquakes, far field and near field seismic data, geodetic and geological data, moment magnitude can be measured, and can be connected with well-known magnitude scales such as surface wave magnitude M_S. Moment magnitude is a uniform magnitude scale, which is suitable for statistics with wide magnitude range. Moment magnitude is the preferred magnitude selected by the International Seismological community, and it is preferred by the departments responsible for publishing seismic information to the public.Moment magnitude is a uniform magnitude scale, which is suitable for statistics with wide magnitude range. Moment magnitude is a preferred magnitude for international seismology, it is preferred by the agency responsible for providing information about earthquakes to the public. We provide all formulas used in the calculation of moment magnitude, and the calculation steps in detail. We also analyzed some problems and rules to solve these problems by using different formulas and numerical value calculation steps.  相似文献   

利用2014年云南地震验证与研究四川地震预警快速震级估算模型          下载免费PDF全文

李鸿杰  樊惠惠  胡蓉平  韩嘉怡  张建经 《地震工程学报》2018,40(6):1337-1342

地震预警系统是防震减灾中最为行之有效的方法之一，其中对地震震级的估算是非常重要且困难的。目前，比较成熟的地震震级估计方法包括：基于最大卓越周期（τ_p^max）、特征周期（τ_c）和最大位移幅值（P_d）方法。利用2014年云南地3次大地震主震及余震P波初期部分的信息，验证与研究了四川地区地震预警快速震级估算模型在云南地区的适用性，结果表明3种参数模型均能在短时间内有效地进行震级估算。对于本研究数据库而言，P_d-4 s时窗模型最优，3个参数模型求得的估计震级在大震下均没有出现明显的震级饱和现象。但由于目前难以在短时窗下得到准确的震源/中距，因此推荐在云南地区地震预警系统中使用τ_p^max和τ_c模型来估计震级。  相似文献   

近距离上层隧道施工对下层隧道的扰动影响          下载免费PDF全文

唐强森  刘涛 《地震工程学报》2018,40(3):591-596,603

针对近距离上层隧道施工时给下层隧道稳定性造成扰动影响的现状,基于简支土体梁力学模型,研究下层隧道顶部在周期性扰动力作用下的系统振动特性,得到顶部垂直位移的动态响应数学表达式,为定量掌握最大位移峰值的大小与出现时刻提供理论依据,指出考虑振动因素时上下层隧道安全距离的确定方法。结合具体算例探索扰动力等因素对最大位移的作用规律,结果表明:扰动力振幅和隧道跨度分别增加1倍和2倍时,最大位移峰值相应增大1倍和23.9倍;隧道层间垂距和土体弹性模量分别增加2倍和3倍时,最大位移峰值相应减小88.2%和70%。当主要影响因素变化时,最大位移的波动大周期延长、波动震荡性加剧,特别是峰值处的震荡幅值增大,隧道顶部稳定性受到明显影响。  相似文献   

河北省沿海风暴潮特征及成因分析     

褚芹芹  张万磊  洪新  李杰  张彦龙  张建乐 《海洋预报》2020,37(1):18-27

以秦皇岛、京唐港、曹妃甸、黄骅4个验潮站的实测潮位和逐时风的数据为基础,以2013年河北省政府发布的风暴潮四色警戒潮位值为标准,统计了2008-2017年10 a河北省沿海的风暴潮过程,从警报级别、区域分布、时间分布、天气系统、经济损失5个方面分析河北省沿海风暴潮特征,并从地形、天文潮与天气系统配合、海平面上升、全球变暖引发的气候异常4个方面分析了影响河北省沿海风暴潮的成因,分析得出:受天气系统的影响,7-10月是河北省风暴潮高发时段,且由于河北省岸线分布特点,沧州市沿海受到风暴潮影响的次数最多,唐山和秦皇岛次之,沧州和唐山地区的风暴潮过程多由东北向大风引起,而秦皇岛地区的风暴潮过程多由东南向风引起。  相似文献