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1.
基于小波变换与神经网络的石羊河流域夏季地温预测模型研究 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
地温变化在气候反馈效应中起着重要作用， 理解地温及其与影响因素之间的时空关系对预测全球温度变化至关重要。利用1998 - 2017年石羊河流域的逐日常规气象观测资料， 采用小波分析结合BP（Back Propagation）神经网络构建了石羊河流域夏季地温预报模型， 结果表明： 日平均地温预测效果在不同站点均为最佳， 其中预测值和观测值的相关系数均大于0.87， 3 ℃以内的预测概率均大于84%。其中， 民勤地区地温预测效果最好， 预测值和观测值的相关系数达到0.91， 3 ℃以内的预测概率达到86%。日最高地温的预测值与观测值的相关系数高于0.8， 但误差平方和、 标准差较大。永昌地区日最高地温的模拟效果最好， 3 ℃以内的预测概率达到83%。日最低地温的预测与观测值的平均相关系数高于0.66， 3 ℃以内的预报概率高于83%， 但预测值略低。其中， 武威地区日最低地温的预测效果最好， 预测值与观测值的相关系数为0.72， 3 ℃以内的预测概率达到94%。研究成果可为有效弥补干旱、 半干旱区地温观测资料缺失和探讨其与局地气候的关系提供一些参考。 相似文献
2.
The grazing exclusion program used by the Tibetan government to protect the ecological environment has changed the vegetation and impacted the surface heat balance in North Tibet. However, little information is available to describe the in?uences of the current grazing exclusion program on local surface heat balance. This study uses the records of fenced grassland patch locations to identify the impact of grazing exclusion on surface heat balance in North Tibet. The records of fenced grassland patch locations, including the longitude, latitude, and elevation of the vertices of each fenced patch (polygon shapes), were provided by the agriculture and animal husbandry bureaus of the counties where the patches were located. ArcGIS 10.2 was used to create polygon shapes based on patch location records. Based on satellite data and the surface heat balance system determined by the model, values for changes in land surface temperature (LST), albedo and evapotranspiration (ET) induced by grazing exclusion were obtained. All of these can influence surface heat balance and alter the fluctuation of LST in the northern Tibetan Plateau. The LST trends for day and night showed an asymmetric diurnal variation, with a larger magnitude of warming in the day than cooling at night. The maximum decrease in absorbed shortwave of LST (-0.5 - -0.4 ℃ per decade) occurred in the central region, while the minimum decrease (-0.2 - -0.1 ℃ per decade) occurred in the eastern region. The decreased latent heat lead to the LST increased maximum (>1 ℃ per decade) occurred in the central region, The eastern region increased at a rate of 0.2-0.5 ℃ per decade, while the minimum increase (0-0.1 ℃ per decade) occurred in the northwestern region. 相似文献
3.
Melkamu Meseret Alemu 《资源与生态学报(英文版)》2019,10(1):77-85
Analysis of the nexus between vegetation dynamics and climatic parameters like surface temperature is essential in environmental and ecological studies and for monitoring of the natural resources. This study explored the spatio-temporal distribution of land surface temperature (LST) and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and the relationship between them in the Andassa watershed from 1986 to 2016 periods using Landsat data. Monthly average air temperature data of three meteorological sites were used for validating the results. The findings of the study showed that the LST of the Andassa watershed has increased during the study periods. Overall, average LST has been rising with an increasing rate of 0.081°C per year. Other results of this study also showed that there has been a dynamic change in vegetation cover of the watershed in all seasons. There was also a negative correlation between LST and NDVI in all the studied years. From this study we can understand that there has been degradation of vegetation and intensification of LST from 1986 to 2016. 相似文献
4.
Land surface temperature(LST) is one of the most important factors in the land-atmosphere interaction process. Raw measured LSTs may contain biases due to instrument replacement, changes in recording procedures, and other non-climatic factors. This study attempts to reduce the above biases in raw daily measurements and achieves a homogenized daily LST dataset over China using 2360 stations from 1960 through 2017. The high-quality land surface air temperature(LSAT)dataset is used to correct the LST warming biases especially evident during cold months in regions north of 40°N due to the replacement of observation instruments around 2004. Subsequently, the Multiple Analysis of Series for Homogenization(MASH) method is adopted to detect and then adjust the daily observed LST records. In total, 3.68 × 103 effective breakpoints in 1.65 × 106 monthly records(about 20%) are detected. A large number of these effective breakpoints are located over large parts of the Sichuan Basin and southern China. After the MASH procedure, LSTs at more than 80% of the breakpoints are adjusted within +/– 0.5°C, and of the remaining breakpoints, only 10% are adjusted over 1.5°C.Compared to the raw LST dataset over the whole domain, the homogenization significantly reduces the mean LST magnitude and its interannual variability as well as its linear trend at most stations. Finally, we perform preliminary analysis upon the homogenized LST and find that the annual mean LST averaged across China shows a significant warming trend [0.22°C(10 yr)–1]. The homogenized LST dataset can be further adapted for a variety of applications(e.g.,model evaluation and extreme event characterization). 相似文献
5.
地表温度（land surface temperature, LST）是反映生态环境状况的重要指标。西藏作为气候变化的敏感地区,掌握其LST的时空变化有利于深入了解西藏热环境演化过程,为长期监测高原基础生态变化提供帮助。研究基于谷歌地球引擎获取西藏2000—2020年的MODIS LST数据,采用归一化分级方法对LST进行5个等级的划分,利用趋势分析、热力空间分析以及重心迁移等方法分析了研究区近20年来的LST时空演变特征。同时,选取归一化植被指数（normalized difference vegetation index, NDVI）、裸土指数（bare soil index, BI）、垂直不透水面指数（perpendicular impervious surface index, PISI）、湿度（WET）以及高程（digital elevation model, DEM）等5个影响LST的地表参数,结合多尺度地理加权回归,探讨了LST影响因子的作用尺度与作用效力。结果表明：2000—2020年,西藏LST均值由18.72 ℃上升至20.28 ℃,年均增长0.09 ℃,LST呈现微弱上升态势。20年来,LST在所有年份皆具有西北高、东南低的空间分布格局,LST增温趋势亦表现为西北高、东南低的分布特征。低温区和高温区空间分布聚集,形状简单、规则;次低温区、中温区以及次高温区空间分布破碎,形状复杂。2000—2020年各温区重心分布具有明显的方向性,且各温区重心迁移轨迹具有显著差异。特别是,低温区重心与高温区重心迁移轨迹呈现出由相向而行到背向而行的转变,反映出研究区东西部区域LST差距经历了由缩小到扩大的过程。DEM和WET对LST具有负向影响,BI、PISI和NDVI具有正向影响,常数项在不同生态区具有不同的影响性质。DEM具有较小的作用尺度以及最强的作用效力,常数项具有最小的作用尺度以及仅次于DEM的作用效力。 相似文献
6.
The Cordillera Blanca, located in the central zone of the Andes Mountains in Peru, has shown a retreat in its glaciers. This paper presents a trend analysis of the glacier area over the groups of Nevados Caullaraju-Pastoruri from 1975 to 2010 using Landsat-5 Thematic Mapper (TM) imagery. In the case of the Nevados Pastoruri/Tuco, the study period was extended back to 1957 by using an aerial photograph taken that year. The extent of clean glacier ice was estimated using Normalized Difference Snow Index (NDSI) thresholds. Moreover, the estimation of debris-covered glacier ice was retrieved by means of a decision tree classification method using NDSI, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Land Surface Temperature (LST). Area estimations derived from Landsat imagery were compared to the glacier ground-truth data in 1975 and 2010. Results show a statistically significant (p < 0.05) decreasing trend over the whole study area. Total glacier area decreased at a rate of 4.5 km2 per decade from 1975 to 2010, with a total loss of 22.5 km2 (58%). Lower decreasing rates were found for the period 1987–2010: 3.5 km2 per decade with a total loss of 7.7 km2 (32.5%). In the case of the Nevados Pastoruri/Tuco, decreasing rates of clean ice extent were constant for the periods 1957–2010, 1975–2010 and 1987–2010, with values close to 1.4 km2 per decade and a total loss between 1957 and 2010 estimated at about 5 km2 (54%). This work shows an evident area decrease in the Caullaraju-Pastoruri tropical glaciers, which needs to be included in a future hydrological scenario of local adaptability and water management. 相似文献
7.
基于ASTER数据的城市热环境遥感监测研究 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
以ASTER数据为数据源,采用同一颗卫星上的MODIS数据得到大气透过率;利用可见光和近红外波段对下垫面类型进行分类和利用JPL(Jet Propulsion Lab)提供的光谱库计算地表比辐射率,进而采用劈窗算法进行地表温度(Land Surface Temperature,LST)的反演。在此基础上,利用反演的LST、分类结果和归一化差值植被指数(NDVI),对沧州地区的城市热环境进行了定量分析,研究结果可为进一步深入探讨城市热岛的发生发展规律以及城市热环境的模拟调控、优化布局提供一定的科学依据。 相似文献
8.
该文基于2001-2007年地表温度遥感反演产品(MOD11A2),以基准气候站对其周围不同大小窗口内地表温度距平序列的解释方差作为度量,评估了我国142个基准气候站的环境代表性,并将代表性与土地覆盖和高程状况进行相关研究.结果显示:以解释方差大于0.75作为区分是否具有代表性的阈值,约41%的站点代表性较好,代表区域范围可超过51×51 km2,多分布于北方地区;约21%的站点代表性较差,代表区域范围不足7×7 km2,多分布于南方地区;其他代表区域范围居中的站点在南、北方均有分布;站点周围的土地覆盖多样性和地形起伏度与站点代表性存在负相关,且相关性随窗口的增大而加强.文中还评估了基准气候站对所属气候区的代表性,发现在气候特征复杂的西南地区和新疆部分地区,站点对气候区的代表性较差. 相似文献
9.
该文基于2001—2007年地表温度遥感反演产品 (MOD11A2),以基准气候站对其周围不同大小窗口内地表温度距平序列的解释方差作为度量,评估了我国142个基准气候站的环境代表性,并将代表性与土地覆盖和高程状况进行相关研究。结果显示:以解释方差大于0.75作为区分是否具有代表性的阈值,约41%的站点代表性较好,代表区域范围可超过51×51 km2,多分布于北方地区;约21%的站点代表性较差,代表区域范围不足7×7 km2,多分布于南方地区;其他代表区域范围居中的站点在南、北方均有分布;站点周围的土地覆盖多样性和地形起伏度与站点代表性存在负相关,且相关性随窗口的增大而加强。文中还评估了基准气候站对所属气候区的代表性,发现在气候特征复杂的西南地区和新疆部分地区,站点对气候区的代表性较差。 相似文献
10.
“源-汇”景观格局的热岛效应研究——以武汉市为例 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
论文基于2017年Landsat 8遥感影像,通过GIS技术选取城市地表温度、源汇景观密度、源汇景观贡献度和景观效应指数,结合地理空间分析和数理统计方法,分析了武汉市局部源汇景观格局对城市地表温度的贡献及其效应。结果表明：① 武汉市城区热岛(urban heat island, UHI)季节变化明显,夏季热岛强度大、范围广,呈“大”字型分布,工业集聚区和经济开发区产生的UHI更显著;② 武汉市城区平均地表温度(land surface temperature, LST)在距市中心约8 km处达到峰值后沿城乡梯度逐渐下降,呈现“倒钩型”特征,这一现象与景观密度变化密切相关;③ LST与源(正向)、汇(负向)景观密度存在极强相关性,不透水表面是城区热岛的主要贡献因子;④ 相同密度的水体和绿地,水体更具有削弱城市热岛效应的功能;⑤ 一般当汇-源景观面积比>0.89(汇区密度>0.47)时,局部景观格局对城市热岛有缓解作用,且局部汇区越集中缓解效果越显著。 相似文献