The NE Directed Seismicity Belt in Tibet after the MS8.1 Nepal Earthquake and Its Predictive Significance     

Wang Shuangxu  Zhu Liangyu  Xu Jing  Ji Lingyun  Jiang Fengyun 《中国地震研究》2018,32(1):119-129

After the 2015 M_S8.1 Nepal earthquake, a strong and moderate seismicity belt has formed in Tibet gradually spreading along the northeast direction. In this paper, we attempt to summarize the features and investigate the primary mechanism of this behavior of seismic activity, using a 2-D finite element numerical model with tectonic dynamic settings and GPS horizontal displacements as the constraints. In addition, compared with the NE-trending seismicity belt triggered by the 1996 Xiatongmoin earthquake, we discuss the future earthquake hazard in and around Tibet. Our results show that:the NE-directed seismicity belt is the response of enhanced loading on the anisotropic Qinghai-Tibetan plateau from the Indian plate and earthquake thrusting. Also, this possibly implies that a forthcoming strong earthquake may fill in the gaps in the NE-directed seismicity belt or enhance the seismic hazard in the eastern (the north-south seismic zone) and western (Tianshan tectonic region) parts near the NE-directed belt.  相似文献   

Biomarker hydrogen isotope composition (δD) as proxy for Holocene hydroclimatic change and seismic activity in SW Peloponnese,Greece          下载免费PDF全文

Elin Norström  Christos Katrantsiotis  Martin Finné  Jan Risberg  Rienk H. Smittenberg  Stefan Bjursäter 《第四纪科学杂志》2018,33(5):563-574

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Full moment tensor inversion constrained by double-couple focal mechanism for induced seismicity*          下载免费PDF全文

Yuyang Tan  Haijiang Zhang  Junlun Li  Chen Yin  Furong Wu 《地震科学（英文版）》2020,33(4):177-193

In this study, we propose a new method to determine full moment tensor solution for induced seismicity. This method generalizes the full waveform matching algorithm we have developed to determine the double-couple (DC) focal mechanism based on the neighbourhood algorithm. One major difference between the new method and the former one is that we adopt a new misfit function to constrain the candidate moment tensor solutions with respect to a reference DC solution in addition to other misfit terms characterizing the waveform matching. Through synthetic tests using a real passive seismic survey geometry, the results show the new constraint can help better recover the DC components of inverted moment tensors. We further investigate how errors in the velocity model and source location affect the moment tensor solution. The synthetic test results indicate that the constrained inversion is robust in recovering both the DC and non-DC components. We also test the proposed method on several real induced events in an oil/gas field in Oman using the same observation system as synthetic tests. While it is found that the full moment tensor solutions without using the DC constraints have much larger non-DC components than solutions with the DC constraints, both solutions are able to fit the observed waveforms at similar levels. The synthetic and real test results suggest the proposed DC constrained inversion method can reliably retrieve full moment tensor solutions for the induced seismicity.  相似文献   

基于特大地震发生率的川滇地区地震危险性预测新模型          下载免费PDF全文

程佳  徐锡伟  陈桂华 《地球物理学报》2020,63(3):1170-1182

川滇地区是我国地震危险性较高的地区之一.本文基于对特大强震的风险性考虑,使用全球地震模型OpenQuake软件,建立了川滇地区地震危险性预测新模型.首先根据构造特征划分多个震源分区,并整理出这些震源分区内断层活动特征与滑动速率;基于震源分区和断层模型,使用GPS应变率转换成的锥形古登堡-里克特关系作为整个区域的地震积累率,并允许超过历史最大震级的特大地震的出现,结合活动断层滑动速率所积累的地震发生率,给出震源分区内断层地震源和背景地震源的地震发生率的比率分配关系;在活动断层分段上,保留了大型断裂或其主要部分,没有根据小的阶区来对断层进行详细分段,以便分配特大地震发生率;并使用地震率平滑方法分配背景地震发生率.最后在OpenQuake中加入地震动预测方程,计算出了川滇地区的PGA分布图,为区域地震危险性提供科学依据.  相似文献   

2010智利莫尔Mw8.8地震对其破裂区及附近地区地震活动性的影响     

武安绪  陈学忠  李艳娥 《地震》2019,39(1):146-154

强震的发生与地壳中应力增加有关。 库仑破裂应力被用于研究由于某次强震发生所产生的应力变化。 2010年智利莫尔M_W8.8地震发生之后, 其破裂区以南地区没有发生M≥6.0地震, 而在其以北地区于2015年在智利发生了伊亚佩尔M_W8.3级地震。 在这两个地区地震活动性悬殊。 本文利用库仑破裂应力研究了2010年智利莫尔M_W8.8地震在这两个地区产生的应力变化。 结果表明, 2010年智利莫尔M_W8.8地震在其破裂区以北地区产生的应力变化为正值, 有利于断层错动发震, 而在其破裂区以南地区产生的应力变化为负值, 具有抑制断层错动发震的作用。  相似文献   

Application of Markovian models for non-ergodic and non-stationary earthquake times series for the identification of seismic patterns and future projections*          下载免费PDF全文

Hakan Karaca 《地震科学（英文版）》2020,33(2):98-106

The current earthquake forecast algorithms are not free of shortcomings due to inherent limitations. Especially, the requirement of stationarity in the evaluation of earthquake time series as a prerequisite, significantly limits the use of forecast algorithms to areas where stationary data is not available. Another shortcoming of forecast algorithms is the ergodicity assumption, which states that certain characteristics of seismicity are spatially invariant. In this study, a new earthquake forecast approach is introduced for the locations where stationary data are not available. For this purpose, the spatial activity rate density for each spatial unit is evaluated as a parameter of a Markov chain. The temporal pattern is identified by setting the states at certain spatial activity rate densities. By using the transition patterns between the states, 1- and 5-year forecasts were computed. The method is suggested as an alternative and complementary to the existing methods by proposing a solution to the issues of ergodicity and stationarity assumptions at the same time.  相似文献   

Spatial sensitivity of seismic hazard results to different background seismic activity and temporal earthquake occurrence models     

Nazan Yilmaz  M. Semih Yucemen 《Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering》2011

Spatial sensitivity of seismic hazard results to different models with respect to background seismic activity and earthquake occurrence in time is investigated. For the contribution of background seismic activity to seismic hazard, background area source with uniform seismicity and spatially smoothed seismicity models are taken into consideration. For the contribution of faults, through characteristic earthquakes, both the memoryless Poisson and the time dependent renewal models are utilized. A case study, involving the assessment of seismic hazard for the Bursa province in Turkey, is conducted in order to examine quantitatively the influence of these models on seismic hazard results. The spatial variation of the difference in Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) values obtained from these different models is presented in the form of difference maps for return periods of 475 and 2475 years. Best estimate seismic hazard maps for PGA and Spectral Accelerations (SA) at 0.2 and 1.0 s are obtained by using the logic tree method.  相似文献   

青藏高原北部地区地震基本活动状态定量评价   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文

刘小凤  梅秀苹  冯建刚  程建武  张辉 《地震工程学报》2011,33(2):130-136

基于区域构造背景、应力场状态及动力学环境等,将青藏高原北部地区划分为4个相对独立的统计单元,即祁连山地震带、甘东南地区、柴达木一共和地块及库玛地震带.通过地震频度和b值拟合确定了各个地区不同下限震级的地震目录完整性起始时间;确定了各构造单元中强以上地震活跃与平静交替活动的特征;定量计算了在平均状态中强以上地震活动特征参数及平静阶段与活跃阶段地震活动特征参数;分别获得了各个区域在平均、活跃与平静状态下的小震活动状态参数.  相似文献   

青海地区各地震带强震活动基本状态探讨     

马玉虎  王培玲  刘文邦 《高原地震》2011,23(4):4-9

利用青海地区1900年以来5级以上强震目录探讨了省内各地震带地震活动的基本状态,结合累积应变能释放现象讨论了各地震带现今地震活动所处的状态。结果显示,青海地区4个地震带强震活动存在明显的平静与活跃的交替特征,这是普遍的宏观规律,但平静与活跃的特点具有差异性。伴随各地震带地震活动状态的不同,其累积应变能释放呈现加速或减速的特征。  相似文献   

尼泊尔Ms8.1地震构造背景及对周边地区地震活动趋势的影响     

雷东宁  蔡永建  李恒  吴建超  乔岳强  余松  廉超 《大地测量与地球动力学》2015,35(5):738-741

分析印度板块与欧亚板块俯冲带、尼泊尔Ms8.1地震震中区地震构造及地震发震构造,讨论主震对余震触发及余震的时空强特征和地震对周边地区地震活动趋势的影响。初步分析认为,主边界断裂为本次地震的发震构造,属于低角度逆冲断层地震;余震分布范围与震源破裂面积和方式基本一致,具有向东迁移的时空特征;西藏定日Ms5.9、聂拉木Ms5.3地震不属于尼泊尔地震余震,是应力扰动的结果;沿俯冲带向东至喜马拉雅东构造结是大震发生的危险地段。  相似文献