港湾中海啸流的模拟及其时空演变特征对输入条件不确定性的响应分析          下载免费PDF全文

王培涛  闪迪  侯京明  王岗  高义  任智源  范婷婷  王宗辰  王君成 《地球物理学报》2018,61(4):1325-1340

一直以来，海啸波特征作为表征海啸潜在破坏性的参数指标得到了广泛应用，特别是针对近场极端海啸事件造成的灾害来说，这种表征具有较好的适用性.然而总结分析历史海啸事件造成的损失发现：在远场近岸及港湾系统中，海啸诱导的强流却是造成损失的主要原因.陆架或港湾振荡导致海啸波幅快速升降诱发强流，可能促使港工设施受到威胁及损害，进而对海啸预警服务及海事应急管理提出了新的挑战.因此，全面理解与评估海啸在港湾中诱发的灾害特征，探索港湾中海啸流的数值模拟方法，发展针对港湾尺度的海啸预警服务指导产品尤为迫切.受限于海啸流验证数据的缺乏及准确模拟海啸流技术方法的诸多不确定性，大部分海啸数值模拟研究工作主要是针对水位特征的研究及验证，可能导致对港湾中海啸灾害危险性认识的曲解与低估.本研究基于非线性浅水方程，针对夏威夷群岛三个典型港湾建立了精细化海啸数值模型（空间分辨率达到10 m），并联合有限断层破裂模型计算分析了日本东北地震海啸在三个港湾及其邻近区域的海啸特征，波、流计算结果与实测结果吻合较好，精细化的海啸港湾模型模拟结果可信.模拟发现港湾中较小的波幅，同样可以产生强流.综合分析日本东北地震海啸波、流特征对输入条件不确定性的响应结果发现：港湾中海啸波-流能量的空间分布特征差异较大，这与港湾系统中海啸波的驻波特性相关；相比海啸波幅空间特征，海啸流特征具有更强的空间敏感性；海啸流时空分布特征对输入条件的不确定性响应比海啸波幅对这些不确定性的响应更强，海啸流的模拟与预报更有挑战性；不确定性对海啸流计算精度的影响会进一步传导放大港湾海啸流危险性的评估及对港工设施产生的应力作用的误差，合理的输入条件对海啸流的精确模拟至关重要.最后，希望通过本文的研究可以从海啸波-流特征角度更加全面认识近岸海啸灾害特征，拓展海啸预警服务的广度与深度，从而为灾害应急管理部门提供更加科学合理的辅助决策产品.  相似文献   

大功率高频电波加热电离层的非线性物理过程          下载免费PDF全文

周晨  王翔  刘默然  倪彬彬  赵正予 《地球物理学报》2018,61(11):4323-4336

地基大功率电波加热电离层是通过地基大功率短波发射机向电离层发射无线电波，通过波-粒和波-波的相互作用将无线电波的能量注入电离层.通过这种有目的可操控的方式改变电离层电子密度和温度的分布，可以深入研究电离层中等离子体能量和物质的非线性演化过程，特别是电离层电子的非平衡态分布和加速问题.本文通过对电离层加热中几个比较重要物理过程的评述，对过去20年来我国研究学者在这一研究方向上取得的重要进展进行了介绍.  相似文献   

残余位移反应谱的参数影响研究     

李宇  梁亚东  李琛 《震灾防御技术》2019,14(4):790-796

从PEER强震数据库中选取4类场地的320条地震动记录作为输入，采用BISPEC程序对非线性单自由度（SDOF）体系（周期T=0.05—5s）进行非线性时程分析，得到相应的残余位移反应谱（Dres），进而研究地震动特性和恢复力模型动力参数对Dres的影响，得到如下结论:①Dres谱值随震级和PGA的增加而增大；其他设防烈度的Dres可由PGA_其他与PGA_基准之比调整基准烈度的Dres得到。②场地土较硬时，场地类型对Dres的影响较小；场地土较软时，Dres谱值随土质的变软而增大。③当位移延性比μ较小时，屈服后刚度比η对Dres的影响可忽略；但当μ较大时，Dres谱值随η的增加而减小。另外，Dres谱值还随阻尼比ξ的增加而减小。④随着T或μ的增大，Dres谱值均呈递增趋势；但当μ>3后，μ对Dres谱值的影响有所下降。  相似文献   

Nonlinear dynamic analysis of Meloland Road Overpass using three-dimensional continuum modeling approach     

《Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering》2014

This paper presents a three-dimensional (3D) continuum nonlinear analysis of the Meloland Road Overpass (MRO) near El Centro, California. The modeling methodology and the computational tools are discussed in detail. The performance of the computational model is evaluated by comparing the computed responses with the responses recorded at the bridge site during the 1979 Imperial Valley and 2010 El Mayor-Cucapah earthquakes. Amongst the recorded earthquake events at the bridge site, these two events caused the strongest shaking. The comparison shows that the 3D model is potentially an effective tool for detailed analysis of a full bridge system including foundation soils, pile foundations, embankments, supporting columns, and the bridge structure itself in a unified system without relying on any ancillary models such as Winkler springs. Additional response parameters such as displacements, rockings, and bending moments are also evaluated although none of these was measured during the seismic events.  相似文献   

Geotechnical design with apparent seismic safety factors well-bellow 1     

《Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering》2014

The paper demonstrates that whereas often in seismic geotechnical design it is not realistically feasible to design with ample factor of safety against failure as is done in static design, an “engineering” apparent seismic factor of safety less than 1 does not imply failure. Examples from slope stability and foundation rocking illustrate the concept. It is also shown that in many cases it may be beneficial to under-design the foundation by accepting substantial uplifting and/or full mobilization of bearing capacity failure mechanisms.  相似文献   

CONDITIONAL NONLINEAR OPTIMAL PERTURBATIONS: APPLICATION IN TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECASTS     

田洪军  李泽椿  王栋梁  王斌 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2019,25(4):421-436

Considering the feature of tropical cyclones (TCs) that strong positive vorticity exists in the lower layers of troposphere, this study proposed to use vorticity at 850 hPa as cost function to find the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP), which was largely different from those previous studies using total energy of perturbed forecast variables. The CNOP was obtained by an ensemble-based approach. All of the sensitive areas determined by CNOP with vorticity at 850 hPa as cost function for the three cases were located over the TC core region and its vicinity. The impact of the CNOP-based adaptive observations on TC forecasts was evaluated with three cases via observational system simulation experiments (OSSEs). Results showed obvious improvements in TC intensity or track forecasts due to the CNOP-based adaptive observations, which were related to the main error source of the verification area, i.e., intensity error or location error.  相似文献   

岩质高边坡稳定性支持向量机预测方法研究     

缪宁 《云南地质》2011,30(4):487-489,475

提出一种基于支持向量机的岩质边坡稳定性预测方法。该方法地很好的表达了岩质边坡稳定性与其影响因素之间的非线性映射关系,并应用该方法建立了相应的模型。预测结果表明,利用该方法进行岩质边坡稳定性预测是可行的、有效的。  相似文献   

Numerical analysis and validation of weakly nonlinear ship motions and structural loads on a modern containership     

Myung-Jae Song  Kyong-Hwan Kim 《Ocean Engineering》2011,38(1):77-87

This paper aims to validate a numerical seakeeping code based on a 3D Rankine panel method by comparing its results with experimental data. Particularly, the motion response and hull-girder loads on a real modern ship, a 6500 TEU containership, are considered in this validation study. The method of solution is a 3D Rankine panel method which adopts B-spline basis function in the time domain. The numerical code is based on the weakly nonlinear scheme which considers nonlinear Froude-Krylov and restoring forces. The main focus of this study is given to investigate the nonlinear characteristics of wave-induced loads, and to validate this present scheme for industrial use in the range of low Froude number. The comparisons show that the nonlinear motions and hull-girder loads, computed by the present numerical code, have good overall agreements with experimental results. It is found that, for the better accuracy of computational results, particularly at extreme waves in oblique seas, the careful treatment of soft-spring (or compatible) system is recommended to the control of non-restoring motions such as surge, sway, and yaw.  相似文献   

Effect of roll modelling in beam waves under multi-frequency excitation     

G. Bulian  A. Francescutto 《Ocean Engineering》2011,38(13):1448-1463

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Empirical modeling of plate load test moduli of soil via gene expression programming     

Ali Mollahasani  Amir Hossein Alavi  Amir Hossein Gandomi 《Computers and Geotechnics》2011

New empirical models were developed to predict the soil deformation moduli using gene expression programming (GEP). The principal soil deformation parameters formulated were secant (E_s) and reloading (E_r) moduli. The proposed models relate E_s and E_r obtained from plate load-settlement curves to the basic soil physical properties. The best GEP models were selected after developing and controlling several models with different combinations of the influencing parameters. The experimental database used for developing the models was established upon a series of plate load tests conducted on different soil types at depths of 1–24 m. To verify the applicability of the derived models, they were employed to estimate the soil moduli of a part of test results that were not included in the analysis. The external validation of the models was further verified using several statistical criteria recommended by researchers. A sensitivity analysis was carried out to determine the contributions of the parameters affecting E_s and E_r. The proposed models give precise estimates of the soil deformation moduli. The E_s prediction model provides considerably better results in comparison with the model developed for E_r. The simplified formulation for E_s significantly outperforms the empirical equations found in the literature. The derived models can reliably be employed for pre-design purposes.  相似文献