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1.
Normalizing economic loss from natural disasters: A global analysis   总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3  
Climate change is likely to lead to an increase in the frequency and/or intensity of certain types of natural hazards, if not globally, then at least in certain regions. All other things equal, this should lead to an increase in the economic toll from natural disasters over time. Yet, all other things are not equal since affected areas become wealthier over time and rational individuals and governments undertake defensive mitigation measures, which requires normalizing economic losses if one wishes to analyze trends in economic loss from natural disasters for detecting a potential climate change signal. In this article, we argue that the conventional methodology for normalizing economic loss is problematic since it normalizes for changes in wealth over time, but fails to normalize for differences in wealth across space at any given point of time. We introduce an alternative methodology that overcomes this problem in theory, but faces many more problems in its empirical application. Applying, therefore, both methods to the most comprehensive existing global dataset of natural disaster loss, in general we find no significant upward trends in normalized disaster damage over the period 1980-2009 globally, regionally, for specific disasters or for specific disasters in specific regions. Due to our inability to control for defensive mitigation measures, one cannot infer from our analysis that there have definitely not been more frequent and/or more intensive weather-related natural hazards over the study period already. Moreover, it may still be far too early to detect a trend if human-induced climate change has only just started and will gain momentum over time.  相似文献   
2.
位场全张量梯度数据以其信息量大、含有更高频的信号成分,能更好地描述小的异常特征等优点在地球物理领域中得到广泛应用.边界检测是位场解释中不可缺少的任务,需要新的边界探测器来处理位场梯度张量数据.为了充分利用位场梯度张量数据的多信息成分,本文定义了方向总水平导数和加强方向总水平导数,并利用其定义新的边界检测器.为了能同时显示不同振幅大小异常的边界,本文对其进行了归一化处理.通过模型试验,证明了归一化方法能更加清晰准确地显示浅部和深部的地质体边界信息.最后将该边界检测方法用于加拿大圣乔治湾实际测得全张量重力梯度数据和中国朱日和地区的磁异常数据中,并得到了较好的边界检测结果.  相似文献   
3.
本文提出归一化总水平导数法,通过对总水平导数进行空间归一化计算实现了异常体水平位置和深度的估计,此外还推导出基于归一化总水平导数的欧拉反褶积法来估算地下地质体的空间位置,两种方法反演结果的相互验证可有效地提高反演结果的可信度.理论模型试验证明空间归一化总水平导数法和归一化总水平导数欧拉反褶积法均能有效地完成异常体的水平位置和深度的估计,所获得的位置参数与理论值相一致.在利用归一化总水平导数法进行磁异常解释时,对数据进行化磁极计算可得到更加准确的结果.将其应用于实际航磁数据的解释,获得了岩脉的大致分布特征.  相似文献   
4.
Due to their balneotherapeutic features, the organic-rich sediments in Makirina Cove are an important source of healing mud. An environmental geochemistry approach using normalization techniques was applied to evaluate the anthropogenic contribution of trace metals to sediments used as healing mud. Sediment geochemistry was found to be associated with land-use change and storm events, as well as with proximity of a road with heavy traffic in the summer months. Local valley topography preferentially channels lithogenic and pollutant transport to the cove. Concentrations and distribution of trace metals indicate lithogenic (Ni, Cr, Co) and anthropogenic (Pb, Cu, Zn and Se) contributions to the sediments. The calculation of enrichment factors indicates a moderate (EFs between 2–3.5) input of anthropogenic Cu and Pb in surficial sediments to a depth of 10 cm. Patients using the Makirina Cove sediments as healing mud could be to some extent exposed to enhanced uptake of metals from anthropogenic sources via dermal contact.  相似文献   
5.
A baseline might be used as a point of reference to monitor change from some specific data without concern for whether the baseline determination is natural or has been changed by human activity. We selected 326 sediment samples from Dexing area, South China, and analyzed for 17 chemical elements. The geochemical baseline was predicted with the method of the normalization procedure combined with the relative cumulative frequency curve. The results indicate Al was the best reference element for the normalization procedure among four potential reference elements (Al, Fe, Ti, and Mn). The baseline value range obtained from the normalization procedure method included both the regional geochemical background of the sediment and the median value of the measured contents. The median value of baselines obtained from relative cumulative frequency method was lower than that obtained from normalization procedure method. In contrast to the geochemical patterns of heavy metals in 1987, the spatial distribution of anomalies sprawled in 2004 in study area, especially for Cu, Pb, Zn, Cd, As, Fe, and Cr.  相似文献   
6.
 The regional variability of some geochemical parameters in the Gulf of Trieste is considered in terms of their relationship with Al, used as a normalization factor. Baselines calculated from these relationships are used to determine a simple enrichment factor for each element, defined as the ratio between the actual and predicted baseline value. The normalization procedure permits a new non dimensional reference baseline to be obtained that could help to assess the size of possible anomalies and to provide information on the diffusion and dispersion patterns of pollutants inside the monitored area. Received: 24 August 1995 · Accepted: 15 October 1995  相似文献   
7.
A geochemical baseline provides the means to distinguish between the pedogenic origin and the anthropogenic origin of the trace element in the environmental compartments. We collected 271 soil samples representative of different parent rocks and soil types from the whole territory of Hong Kong and analyzed the composition of clay mineralogy and the contents of 15 chemical elements (Fe, Cd, As, etc.) for these samples. The baseline was predicted with the method of the normalization procedure combined with the relative cumulative frequency curve. The result indicated that Fe was the best reference element for the normalization procedure among the five potential reference elements (Fe, Al, Sc, Ti, and Mn), followed by Sc and Ti. A poor correlation was found between Sc, Ti, and Cu. The predicted baseline was much lower than the A-value of the Dutch List used usually in screening the polluted soil of Hong Kong, implying that the extent of heavy metal pollution might have been underestimated with respect to local lands. We also applied the cluster analysis to distinguish the geochemical associations of the trace elements due to its importance to the baseline. Approximately three major associations including the Fe–Mn-oxides related, Al oxides or Al-bearing-clay-mineralogy related and sulfide- related associations were observed from the dendrogram.  相似文献   
8.
Total concentrations of 13 elements (K, Ca, Ti, Cr, Mn, Fe, Cu, Zn, Rb, Sr, Y, Zr, Pb) in the size-fractionated Sava River sediments upstream and downstream of the Krsko nuclear power plant together with metal speciation within bulk sediment have been investigated. Trace metals generally increase with decreasing particle size, however, because of entrapment of organic matter in the 0.63–1 mm fraction, concentrations in the coarser sediment fraction are higher than expected. Exchangeable Pb, Zn, Cu, Mn, Cr and Fe are generally found to represent a negligible fraction of the total metal concentration of the bulk sediment. Seasonal variations of the Pb, Zn and Cu concentrations in the <0.5 mm fraction reflect decreased values during the spring period. Heavy metal concentrations in the 2003 waste water discharges from the Krsko nuclear power plant released into the Sava River were much lower than their maximum allowed values. Combined rubidium and organic matter normalization of the Zn, Pb and Cu concentrations, which was applied on the minus 0.063 mm fraction, indicated three potential sources of contaminants.  相似文献   
9.
引潮位展开中的面球谐函数及其递推公式   总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4       下载免费PDF全文
为了引潮位展开,文中定义了一种完全规格化的面球谐函数,同时根据勒让德(Legendre)函数以及契比雪夫(Chebyshev)多项式之递推公式,导出一组面球谐函数的递推公式.据此改进引潮位计算程序,使引潮位展开在PC-586计算机上只需要不到10min时间即可完成.完全规格化的面球谐函数可以起到规格化的作用,没有必要再继续采用杜德森(Doodson)规格化.即使采用,也没有必要使用严格的小数值,取其相近的整数值即可.以完全规格化的缔合球谐函数代替Doodson规格化,并借助面球谐函数的递推公式,使引潮位的表达式更加简洁、规范.文中对高精度潮汐计算中的一些重要问题进行了讨论,指出以往在Doodson常数归算上存在的误区,还就天体与测站坐标系统的一致性问题进行了讨论.  相似文献   
10.
本文讨论了应用NOAA-AVHRR资料来提取水体信息的方法。采用AVHRR一、二通道(下面简写为CH1、CH2)获得的地面反射率数据构成的归一化植被指数(NDVI)来识别水体,并初步提出了应用模糊数学的方法提取混合像元中的水体面积信息的技术思路。  相似文献   
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