北半球72 ka BP气候突变事件及其与Toba火山的关系     

吴帅男  陈仕涛  段福才 《地球科学进展》2012,27(1):35-41

72 ka BP左右的强降温事件是末次冰期最大的气候突变事件,且同时期发生了第四纪以来最强的火山喷发——Toba火山喷发,后者在此次强降温事件中扮演着什么角色一直是古气候学界研究的热点。对此进行深入的研究,有助于全面评价火山喷发的环境效应,进一步完善末次冰期突变事件的成因机制。系统回顾深海岩芯、极地冰芯、洞穴石笋、黄土、湖泊等古气候载体的研究成果,这些记录对72 ka BP左右的强降温事件和/或Toba火山喷发进行了不同程度的描述,并从不同的角度分析二者的关系。从72 ka BP左右的强降温事件和Toba火山喷发的时间上,以及火山喷发对气候变化影响的机理上看,Toba火山喷发确实对这次强降温事件产生了实质性影响。这个影响在格陵兰冰芯记录中表现得尤为明显,并得到了气候模拟的进一步支持。然而,部分低纬海洋记录研究表明,Toba火山喷发前后气候没有发生显著变化,至少低纬地区的气候不如高纬地区变化明显。古生物研究同时显示出Toba火山喷发并未对其生存环境产生灾难性的影响,由此可见,72 ka BP左右的强降温事件驱动机制及其对Toba火山喷发的响应程度尚存争议。今后的研究应重视提高气候记录分辨率和探测Toba火山喷发证据的研究,从解剖事件的内部结构特征入手,进而建立气候模式与火山效应之间的联系,以此来明确“72 ka事件”驱动机制及其对Toba火山喷发的响应关系。  相似文献   

Study on Variation of Fitting Goodness of Relation Between Earthquake Frequency and Magnitude before Moderately Strong Earthquakes (Ms≥5.0)     

Li Zhixiong  Zhang Guomin  Fu Zhengxiang  and Zhang YongxianState Seismological Bureau  Beijing  China Center for Analysis  Prediction  SSB  Beijing  China 《中国地震研究》1996,(4)

In this paper,characteristics of spatial and temporal variation of linear fitting goodness before some moderately strong earthquakes(Ms≥5.0)in the eastern part of China(east of longitude 180)are studied according to the famous Gutenberg-Richter's relation expressed as lgN=a-bM,by using the moderate and small events that occurred in and around the source area.The results show that the linear goodness of fitting varies abnormally prior to these moderately strong earthquakes.In the early stage of the earthquake preparatory process,distribution of the energy released through small events in and around the source area is isostatic and the fitting goodness approximates 1,while the distribution of the energy turns to be isostatic before moderately strong earthquakes,leading to the obvious decrease of the linear goodness of fitting.This phenomenon could be a medium term anomaly and a medium term criterion for moderately strong earthquake prediction.  相似文献   

基于灰色关联度的AHP权重矩阵构建方法改进及在农地评价中的应用   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

汪权方  晏群  徐慧  王新生  张景雄  李兆华  陈志杰 《地理科学进展》2016,35(10):1249-1257

合理确定评价指标的权重是准确测度农业土地资源可持续利用能力的关键所在。本文依据灰色关联度对层次分析法(AHP)中判断矩阵的构建方法进行了改进,并获取各项评价指标的权重。在此基础上,分别采用多目标线性加权函数综合评价模型和障碍因子诊断模型,对2001-2012年湖北省枣阳市的农业土地资源可持续利用水平及其制约因素进行评估和辨析。结果显示：基于灰色关联分析法(GRA)改进后的AHP方法在确定指标权重时不仅能有效降低主观赋权的影响,也可避免熵值法等客观赋权法所存在的弊端;地均农业生产总值、人均耕地面积、化肥使用强度、有效灌溉面积、年降水量、人均GDP和农村居民家庭人均纯收入是制约枣阳市农业土地资源可持续利用的最主要因素,但在不同年份各因素的阻碍度表现不一。2001年以来,枣阳市农业土地资源利用的社会经济可持续性水平较高,综合可持续利用水平指数整体上呈增加的态势;但在生态可持续方面,2006年之后不仅明显低于之前年份,而且也显著低于同时期的社会经济可持续性。  相似文献   

A statistical procedure for the analysis of seismotectonically induced hydrochemical signals: A case study from the Eastern Carpathians, Romania   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Jens Hartmann  Zsolt Berner  Doris Stüben  Norbert Henze   《Tectonophysics》2005,405(1-4):77-98

Changes in the stress field of an aquifer system induced by seismotectonic activity may change the mixing ratio of groundwaters with different compositions in a well, leading to hydrochemical signals which in principle could be related to discrete earthquake events. Due to the complexity of the interactions and the multitude of involved factors the identification of such relationships is a difficult task. In this study we present an empiric statistical approach suitable to analyse if there is an interdependency between changes in the chemical composition of monitoring wells and the regional seismotectonic activity of a considered area. To allow a rigorous comparison with hydrochemistry the regional earthquake time series was aggregated into an univariate time series. This was realized by expressing each earthquake in form of a parameter “e”, taking into consideration both energetic (magnitude of a seismic event) and spatial parameters (position of epi/hypocentrum relative to the monitoring site). The earthquake and the hydrochemical time-series were synchronised aggregating the e-parameters into “earthquake activity” functions E, which takes into account the time of sampling relative to the earthquakes which occurred in the considered area. For the definition of the aggregation functions a variety of different “e” parameters were considered. The set of earthquake functions E was grouped by means of factor analysis to select a limited number of significant and representative earthquake functions E to be used further on in the relation analysis with the multivariate hydrochemical data set. From the hydrochemical data a restricted number of hydrochemical factors were extracted. Factor scores allow to represent and analyse the variation of the hydrochemical factors as a function of time. Finally, regression analysis was used to detect those hydrochemical factors which significantly correlate with the aggregated earthquake functions.This methodological approach was tested with a hydrochemical data set collected from a deep well monitored for two years in the seismically active Vrancea region, Romania. Three of the hydrochemical factors were found to correlate significantly with the considered earthquake activities. A screening with different time combinations revealed that correlations are strongest when the cumulative seismicity over several weeks was considered. The case study also showed that the character of the interdependency depends sometimes on the geometrical distribution of the earthquake foci. By using aggregated earthquake information it was possible to detect interrelationships which couldn't have been identified by analysing only relations between single geochemical signals and single earthquake events. Further on, the approach allows to determine the influence of different seismotectonic patterns on the hydrochemical composition of the sampled well. The method is suitable to be used as a decision instrument in assessing if a monitoring site is suitable or not to be included in a monitoring net within a complex earthquake prediction strategy.  相似文献   

云南地区地震短临预报实践     

傅虹  王世芹 《地震》1999,19(2):204-208

１９９７年４－６月云南省地震局对滇西南重点监视区做了短临预报,但这期间未发生所预期的地震。而滇西南地区６级地震的背景和省内的前兆异常变化是明显的。为此,认为前兆异常是区域应力场增强的结果。异常与地震是相互伴生的兄弟关系,不是父子间因果关系,是造成地震虚报的主要原因。  相似文献   

祁连山林区大气降水特征与森林对降水的截留作用   总被引：30，自引：3，他引：30  

常学向  赵爱芬  王金叶  常宗强  金博文 《高原气象》2002,21(3):274-280

通过对连山寺大隆林区定位站1975－2000年的降水特征与森林对降水的再分配分析，建立了祁连山大隆林区降水与温度，降水与湿度，林冠截留的关系式。该区多年平均降水量为433.5mm，年变幅在326.4-539.7mm;降水量最大出现在夏季，占全年降水量的65．70％；海拔高度每升高100m，年了量平均递增4．55％，林区温度和湿度均与降水有较好的拟合关系。青海云杉林与祁连圆柏林林冠对大气降水的平均截留率分别为37．5％，31．7％，灌木林的截留率平均高达66．5％。青海云杉林林冠层平均截留率随着降雨量的增大逐渐减小，当降雨量为18.67mm时，林冠截留量达到最大，为14.72mm；青海云杉树干径流量占降水量的0．51％，当降雨量超过12.0mm时，才开始产生树干径流。青海云杉林枯枝落叶层对降雨的截留量随降雨量级增加而增大，截留率则随降雨量减小而增大，枯枝落叶层所具有的截留降雨和调蓄降雨作用使祁连山林区基本不发生地表径流。分析结果表明，祁连山林区对水源涵养和水流出山的时间调控有重要意义。  相似文献   

军事地理学的“三原素”基础与“军一地”关系理论   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

郭树桂 《测绘学院学报》1992,(2)

本文提出军事地理学的“三原素”基础和“军—地”关系理论。前者论述军事地理学的全部内容均源于环境(地理)、战争(军事)、人(成员、活动)三个基本因素的存在和作用;后者论述由主导性原则、依赖性原理、制约性原理、综合效应原则和间接军力原理等组成的“军—地”关系理论。  相似文献   

东亚大气环流的低频振荡及与韵律的关系   总被引：1，自引：2，他引：1  

张庆云  陈烈庭 《大气科学》1992,16(3):333-338

本文根据北半球500hPa高度场30年(1951—1980)平均的逐候格点资料,对气候平均的东亚各主要大气环流系统的年内变化进行了谐波分析和天气学分析.结果表明,东亚大气环流系统存在着三种主要的大气低频波:年波、半年波和30—50天的季内波;中、高纬度的大气环流以年波振荡为主,低纬度的大气环流以半年波振荡为主;30—50天的季内波是北半球各纬度上都存在的一种波,但它对总方差的贡献在低纬比中、高纬度大.此外,还讨论了年波和半年波这两种大气低频波与我国长期预报中常用的各种韵律指标特别是隔季相关现象的关系.  相似文献   

乳山近岸养殖区初级生产力时空分布及其与环境因子相关关系          下载免费PDF全文

于广磊  张明亮  程玲  尚国栋  张娟  宋秀凯 《海洋开发与管理》2019,36(11):69-74

于2017—2018年3月、5月、8月、10月在乳山海水增养殖海域进行了水文、气象、化学、浮游植物等要素的综合调查,文章分析了该海域初级生产力和主要环境因子间的相关关系并探讨了其相互影响。结果表明,2017—2018年调查区域水体初级生产力的波动范围为9.2～3 504.0mg/(m2·d)(以碳计),各年度均为8月最高,3月比5月、10月略高,5月和10月相当。3—5月乳山湾东汊和乳山东与文登交界处要高于其他区域,8月近岸外海整体较高,从近岸区到远岸初级生产力先逐渐增大后逐渐减小,10月的初级生产力普遍偏低。2018年3月和8月初级生产力与温度、pH值、无机氮、N/P值和盐度等相关环境因素有一定的显著相关关系,而在5月和10月相关关系则都不显著。此次调查结果能够反映出陆源输入、季节变化等生境改变对水体初级生产力的时空分布的影响。  相似文献   

空间相似关系基本问题研究     

刘涛  闫浩文 《测绘软科学研究》2014,(1):51-55

空间相似关系属于空间关系的一种,其研究目前尚处于初始阶段。文章针对空间相似关系的基本问题进行了研究。综合前人研究文献对空间关系的定义进行了描述;从不同侧面对空间关系进行了分类,以更好更全面的描述空间相似关系;对空间关系的基本性质进行了探讨;基于空间实体的数据描述组成,对空间相似关系的主要研究内容进行了阐述。  相似文献