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排序方式: 共有129条查询结果,搜索用时 31 毫秒
1.
南四湖表层底泥重金属污染及其风险性评价   总被引:34,自引:5,他引:29       下载免费PDF全文
通过对南四湖表层底泥中的重金属元素浓度分析,揭示出南四湖不同湖区重金属污染物空间分布特征.利用潜在生态风险指数(RI)和地质积累指数(Igeo)两种指标相结合的方法对表层底泥中重金属污染程度进行评价.结果表明,南四湖上级湖的重金属污染主要以汞为主,并依据潜在生态风险指数将南四湖上级湖分为三个生态风险功能区: 昭阳湖轻污染区;独山湖中等污染区和南阳湖重污染区.  相似文献
2.
2D Monte Carlo versus 2D Fuzzy Monte Carlo health risk assessment   总被引:13,自引:3,他引:10  
Risk estimates can be calculated using crisp estimates of the exposure variables (i.e., contaminant concentration, contact rate, exposure frequency and duration, body weight, and averaging time). However, aggregate and cumulative exposure studies require a better understanding of exposure variables and uncertainty and variability associated with them. Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) studies use probability distributions for one or more variables of the risk equation in order to quantitatively characterize variability and uncertainty. Two-dimensional Monte Carlo Analysis (2D MCA) is one of the advanced modeling approaches that may be used to conduct PRA studies. In this analysis the variables of the risk equation along with the parameters of these variables (for example mean and standard deviation for a normal distribution) are described in terms of probability density functions (PDFs). A variable described in this way is called a second order random variable. Significant data or considerable insight to uncertainty associated with these variables is necessary to develop the appropriate PDFs for these random parameters. Typically, available data and accuracy and reliability of such data are not sufficient for conducting a reliable 2D MCA. Thus, other theories and computational methods that propagate uncertainty and variability in exposure and health risk assessment are needed. One such theory is possibility analysis based on fuzzy set theory, which allows the utilization of incomplete information (incomplete information includes vague and imprecise information that is not sufficient to generate probability distributions for the parameters of the random variables of the risk equation) together with expert judgment. In this paper, as an alternative to 2D MCA, we are proposing a 2D Fuzzy Monte Carlo Analysis (2D FMCA) to overcome this difficulty. In this approach, instead of describing the parameters of PDFs used in defining the variables of the risk equation as random variables, we describe them as fuzzy numbers. This approach introduces new concepts and risk characterization methods. In this paper we provide a comparison of these two approaches relative to their computational requirements, data requirements and availability. For a hypothetical case, we also provide a comperative interpretation of the results generated.  相似文献
3.
Species sensitivity distributions: data and model choice   总被引:11,自引:0,他引:11  
Species sensitivity distributions (SSDs) are increasingly incorporated into ecological risk assessment procedures. Although these new techniques offer a more transparent approach to risk assessment they demand more and superior quality data. Issues of data quantity and quality are especially important for marine datasets that tend to be smaller (and have fewer standard test methods) when compared with freshwater data. An additional source of uncertainty when using SSDs is appropriate selection from the range of methods used in their construction. We show through examples the influence of data quantity, data quality, and choice of model. We then show how regulatory decisions may be affected by these factors.  相似文献
4.
New concepts in ecological risk assessment: where do we go from here?   总被引:10,自引:0,他引:10  
Through the use of safety factors, the use of single-species test data has been adequate for use in protective hazard assessments and criteria setting but, because hazard quotients do not consider the presence of multiple species each with a particular sensitivity or the interactions that can occur between these species in a functioning community, they are ill-suited to environmental risk assessment. Significant functional redundancy occurs in most ecosystems but this is poorly considered in single-species tests conducted under laboratory conditions. A significant advance in effects assessment was the use of the microcosm as a unit within which to test interacting populations of organisms. The microcosm has allowed the measurement of the environmental effect measures such as the NOAEC(community) under laboratory or field conditions and the application of this and other similarly derived measures to ecological risk assessment (ERA). More recently, distributions of single-species laboratory test data have been used for criteria setting and, combined with distributions of exposure concentrations, for risk assessment. Distributions of species sensitivity values have been used in an a priori way for setting environmental quality criteria such as the final acute value (FAV) derived for water quality criteria. Similar distributional approaches have been combined with modeled or measured concentrations to produce estimates of the joint probability of a single species being affected or that a proportion of organisms in a community will be impacted in a posteriori risk assessments. These techniques have not been widely applied for risk assessment of dredged materials, however, with appropriate consideration of bioavailability and spatial and nature of the data these techniques can be applied to soils and sediments.  相似文献
5.
汪一鹏 《地震地质》2004,26(4):559-565
“十五”期间即将实施20个省会级城市的活断层探测与地震危险性评价工程。文中对该工程的技术指导性文件“城市活断层探测与地震危险性评价工作大纲(试行)”的基本内容和领会要点进行了阐述。对“工作大纲”的5大属性(科学性、普适性、包容性、可操作性、约束性)作了说明,对探测工程的主要对象活断层和地震活断层进行了界定,对工作区和目标区的内涵及工作途径的差别做了解释。分析了工程所面对的3个层次的科学问题和实施过程中的5个步骤,并对每个步骤中需要注意的事项和应采取的对策分别进行了探讨。文章阐述了探测过程中安排中期验收的必要性,指出本工程是以往各震害防御工作的延续、发展与深入  相似文献
6.
基于信息扩散理论的云南省地震风险评估及管理研究   总被引:8,自引:1,他引:7  
利用信息扩散的方法,从破坏性地震次数风险和震级风险的角度对云南各地区进行了风险评价,并提出相应的风险管理策略。  相似文献
7.
Issues in sediment toxicity and ecological risk assessment   总被引:8,自引:0,他引:8  
This paper is based on a facilitated Workshop and Roundtable Discussion of key issues in sediment toxicology and ecological risk assessment (ERA) as applied to sediments that was held at the Conference on Dredged Material Management: Options and Environmental Considerations. The issues addressed included how toxicity is defined and perceived, how it is measured, and how it should be used within the context of ERA to support management decisions. The following conclusions were reached regarding scientific considerations of these issues. Toxicity is a measure of hazard and not a risk per se. Thus, toxicity testing is a means but not the end to understand risks of sediments. Toxicity testing cannot presently be replaced by chemical analyses to define hazard. Toxicity test organisms need to be appropriate to the problem being addressed, and the results put into context relative to both reference and baseline comparisons to understand hazard. Use of toxicity tests in sediment ERAs requires appropriate endpoints and risk hypotheses, considering ecological not just statistical significance, and recognizing that hazard does not equate to risk. Toxicity should be linked to population and community response to support decision-making, assessing possible genotypic adaptations that can influence risk estimates, and addressing uncertainty. Additionally, several key scientific issues were identified to improve future sediment ERAs, including the need to improve basic understanding of ecological mechanisms and processes, recognition of variability in the assessment process, and an improved focus and ability to assess risks to populations and communities.  相似文献
8.
城市活动断层探测和断层活动性评价问题   总被引:8,自引:5,他引:3       下载免费PDF全文
根据近年来城市活动断层探测与地震危险性评价的实际工作,归纳了探测工作中在地质地貌、地球化学和地球物理探测中存在的问题,针对性提出了相应的建议,以进一步推进这一工作  相似文献
9.
为了解巢湖湖区及主要出入湖河流沉积物中重金属的污染特征,对表层沉积物中重金属元素含量进行分析,基于地积累指数法、潜在生态风险指数法和沉积物质量基准法对沉积物污染风险进行评价,并对沉积物重金属来源进行初步分析.结果表明,河流沉积物中重金属的平均含量显著高于湖区,是湖区沉积物重金属含量的1.18~5.15倍,其中南淝河Cu、Zn、Pb、As和Hg含量较高,分别是背景值的3.53、16.98、3.98、5.84和23.11倍,西半湖Cu、Zn、Pb、Cd和Hg平均含量要高于东半湖,是全湖平均的1.04~1.45倍.地积累指数法和Håkanson潜在生态风险指数法评价结果均表明,Cd和Hg是主要的生态风险贡献因子,在所调查的表层沉积物中Cd和Hg数值分别为43.17~3870.94和29.96~924.57,已处于较大风险数值.此外,源分析结果表明,巢湖湖区及主要出入湖河流表层沉积物中Cu、Zn、Pb、Cr、Hg和As相关性显著,具有相似的来源,可能来自于工业废水与生活污水.  相似文献
10.
The human mediated transfer of harmful organisms via shipping, specifically via ballast water transport, leading to the loss of biodiversity, alteration of ecosystems, negative impacts on human health and in some regions economic loss, has raised considerable attention especially in the last decade. Ballast water sampling is very important for biological invasions risk management. The complexity of ballast water sampling is a result of both the variety of organism diversity and behaviour, as well as ship design including availability of ballast water sampling points. Furthermore, ballast water sampling methodology is influenced by the objectives of the sampling study. In the course of research conducted in Slovenia, new sampling equipment for ships' ballast water was developed and tested. In this paper new ballast water sampling methods and equipment together with practical shipboard testing results are presented.  相似文献
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