青藏高原及邻区未来地震活动性趋势数值分析          下载免费PDF全文

董培育  石耀霖  程惠红  乔学军 《地球物理学报》2020,63(3):1155-1169

区域中长期地震危险性数值分析研究,需要对其初始构造应力场有所了解,但目前以及未来一段时期内仍无法直接观测到深部孕震层区域的应力场状况.本文首先基于岩石库仑-摩尔破裂准则,利用青藏高原及邻区百年历史范围内的强震信息,来反演估算该区域的初始应力场.然后,考虑区域构造应力加载及强震造成的应力扰动共同作用,重现了历史强震的发展过程.然而对于初始应力场的反演估算,本文仅能给出区域其上下限的极限值,并不能唯一确定.因此,采用Monte Carlo随机法,进行大量独立的随机试验计算,生成数千种有差异的区域初始应力场模型,且保证每种模型都能令历史强震有序发生,但未来应力场演化过程不尽相同.最后,将数千种模型在未来时间段内的危险性预测结果集成为数理统计结果,据此给出了区域未来的地震危险性概率分布图.初步结果显示未来强震危险性概率较高地区集中在巴颜喀拉块体边界及鲜水河断裂带地区.  相似文献   

Riverine large wood and recreation safety: A framework to discretize and contextualize hazard     

Will Conley  Natalie Kramer 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2020,45(9):2201-2216

The importance of large wood (LW) to riverine functions is well established scientifically and increasingly recognized by river managers in many countries. However, public perceptions largely associate LW with elevated danger and/or need for intervention. Such perspectives are amplified amongst recreational river users (defined here as any individuals that recreate by floating on the water surface of a river) who interact more directly with rivers than the general public and commonly view wood in life-or-death terms. Given that human life occupies a highest-order charge for river managers, they are left in a difficult position when safety appears to conflict with environmental services. LW deficits are perpetuated partly because wood removal, often in the name of safety, is far easier than placing wood in rivers. Further, river restoration practitioners are frequently burdened with expectations and liability unparalleled in built environments. A fundamentally different mindset is necessary to achieve desired ecologic outcomes when working with rivers. Based on two decades of experience as boaters, LW practitioners, and emergency responders, we (1) discuss LW hazard and risk from recreational and management viewpoints, (2) discretize objective and measurable physical properties of LW hazards, and (3) propose a decision framework that implicitly addresses risk by considering LW hazards relative to river use and ambient hazards. The approach is structured to increase objectivity in LW hazard mitigation and diminish asymmetric biases that favor LW removal. Our intent is to build understanding and rational flexibility among risk-averse management, regulatory, and funding entities to facilitate implementation of scientific understanding without undue risk to river users. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

基于国家海洋治理和全球气候变化的我国海洋灾害防治          下载免费PDF全文

齐庆华 《海洋开发与管理》2019,36(2):17-23

为建立和完善现代化的海洋灾害防治体系,提高我国海洋治理和应对全球气候变化的能力,文章以全球治理和国家治理为背景,在明确致灾因子、承灾体、灾害以及灾害风险和管理等基本概念及其内涵的基础上,分析全球气候变化背景下我国海洋灾害及其风险的特征以及海洋灾害防治的关键性和基础性科学问题,并提出我国构建海洋灾害防治体系的建议。研究结果表明:在全球气候变化的影响下,我国沿海地区的海洋灾害风险复杂多变且有所提升;提出以群-环-域为主体的体系架构,研究全球气候变化与区域海洋的响应和反馈、全球气候变化背景下海洋灾害与风险的特征和规律以及综合海洋灾害风险评估和海洋灾害防治等问题;在我国构建海洋灾害防治体系的过程中,应加强科学研究以及技术和信息支撑、促进区域和全球联动联防以及提高全社会对海洋灾害的认知和防范水平。  相似文献   

Stretching correction for amplitude-preserving vector wavefield reverse-time migration     

《China Geology》2019,2(2):179-188

The migration of multi-wave seismic data is aimed at obtaining the P- and S-wave imaging results of the amplitude preserving. But the P- and S-wave stretching effect produced by the reverse time migration of the elastic wave equation will not only reduce the vertical resolution of the migration results and the amplitude preserving of the large reflection angle. In this paper, the reverse time migration technique of amplitude preserving vector wave-field separating is used. Based on the analysis of the stretch mechanism and the influencing factors of stretch magnitude, the paper gave the stretch correcting factors. Then, realize the stretch correction method at the time that after the reverse extrapolation and before the imaging by solving the problem which is how to calculate the P-wave and Ps-wave propagation directions of imaging points at different times. The stretch correction method can improve the vertical resolution and amplitude fidelity of the imaging results and provide high fidelity input data for seismic data interpretation and inversion.© 2019 China Geology Editorial Office.  相似文献   

基于Datist的测震分析月报自动产出技术研发     

王宇航  庞瑶  宫悦  颜利君  黄春梅 《四川地震》2020,(1):40-43

针对四川测震台网运行月报中关于测震分析章节编写过程中的程序化工作流程,依托于数据专家(Datist)自动化流程实现了数据源读取、数据清洗、目录统计、绘制震中分布图、计算速报结果自评和报告自动产出等功能,辅助完成月报生成。实践证明该成果可有效减轻地震监测人员的工作负担,提高工作效率。  相似文献   

分布式光纤声波传感器及其在天然地震学研究中的应用     

张丽娜  任亚玲  林融冰  宋政宏  曾祥方 《地球物理学进展》2020,(1):65-71

分布式光纤声波传感器(Distributed Acoustic Sensing,DAS)是近年来兴起的超密集地震观测系统,具有一系列观测密度高、观测成本低、耐受恶劣环境等优势,在油气行业得到了广泛应用,也引起了天然地震学界的关注.本文简要回顾了DAS系统的测量原理、发展历程、技术方案、介绍了测量原理及其响应特性,然后围绕多个观测实验,介绍浅部结构成像、深部结构探测和地震监测三个方向的典型应用实例,最后讨论了DAS系统在天然地震学研究中应用面临的挑战和发展趋势.  相似文献   

南海东北部东沙海域海水层反射特征分析     

李豪  关永贤  宋海斌  张锟  范文豪 《地球物理学进展》2020,(1):303-312

本文基于对南海东北部东沙海域近期采集的多道反射地震资料进行重新处理获得新的地震海洋学数据,分析了该海域内孤立波/内孤立波包、沙丘上方和陡坎附近特殊反射结构特征,从而提供了新的海水层与海底相互作用依据.研究结果表明,除之前已发表文章中地震海洋学资料显示存在的第一模态内孤立波/波包和沙丘上方常见的反射样式-披毛状发射外,地震海洋学资料上还发现了第二模态内孤立波、陡坎上方的上抬型波动反射结构样式.在新的地震海洋学数据中,第一模态内孤立波振幅均小于50 m,宽度上都小于5 km,单个内孤立波的最大振幅约为45 m.内孤立波包的内孤立波振幅都相对较小,均小于40 m,并且与之前不同的是,彼此之间振幅相差不大,没有明显的排列规律.此次地震海洋学数据记录到的第二模态内孤立波,形态较为完整,上层和下层反射的振幅相差不大,在30 m左右;中间层大约在水深130 m位置处,垂向结构的整体大小大于200 m.沙丘上方反射结构普遍存在弱反射层,可能是湍流边界层,并且存在特殊反射样式-披毛状反射.但并不是沙丘上方都存在披毛状反射样式,本文分析它出现在地震海洋学资料上可能是受测线与沙丘走向之间夹角的影响.陡坎区域的水层反射结构则表现为上抬型波动,并常常伴随着同相轴连续性的变化.该波动的大小及反射同相轴的连续性可能取决于陡坎的高度/坡度及水层动力的强度,新数据中出现的一个上抬型波动,高度达20~30 m,它的附近水层还存在一个形态不完整的内孤立波.陡坎附近的水层反射也常常出现弱反射带和小的波动.  相似文献   

基于遗传算法优化BP神经网络的玉米遥感估产方法     

于海洋  陈圣波  杨北萍  安秦 《世界地质》2020,39(1):208-214

以内蒙古自治区开鲁县玉米作物为研究对象,将生育期内玉米遥感影像所提取的多种植被指数和实地采样点的测产数据作为训练值,利用BP(back propagation)神经网络和遗传算法优化BP(GA-BP)神经网络估产模型,得出网络预测的玉米产量数值。通过决定系数R 2和均方根误差RMSE,比较实测产量与预测产量之间的精度,BP神经网络模型R^2为0.8452,RMSE(%)为28.37;遗传算法优化BP神经网络模型R^2为0.9850,RMSE(%)为6.70,表明遗传算法优化BP神经网络估产模型具有一定可行性和可信度。  相似文献   

Some remarks on Q-compensated sparse deconvolution without knowing the quality factor Q     

Xintao Chai  Ronghua Peng  Genyang Tang  Wei Chen  Jingnan Li 《Geophysical Prospecting》2019,67(8):2003-2021

The subsurface media are not perfectly elastic, thus anelastic absorption, attenuation and dispersion (aka Q filtering) effects occur during wave propagation, diminishing seismic resolution. Compensating for anelastic effects is imperative for resolution enhancement. Q values are required for most of conventional Q-compensation methods, and the source wavelet is additionally required for some of them. Based on the previous work of non-stationary sparse reflectivity inversion, we evaluate a series of methods for Q-compensation with/without knowing Q and with/without knowing wavelet. We demonstrate that if Q-compensation takes the wavelet into account, it generates better results for the severely attenuated components, benefiting from the sparsity promotion. We then evaluate a two-phase Q-compensation method in the frequency domain to eliminate Q requirement. In phase 1, the observed seismogram is disintegrated into the least number of Q-filtered wavelets chosen from a dictionary by optimizing a basis pursuit denoising problem, where the dictionary is composed of the known wavelet with different propagation times, each filtered with a range of possible values. The elements of the dictionary are weighted by the infinity norm of the corresponding column and further preconditioned to provide wavelets of different values and different propagation times equal probability to entry into the solution space. In phase 2, we derive analytic solutions for estimates of reflectivity and Q and solve an over-determined equation to obtain the final reflectivity series and Q values, where both the amplitude and phase information are utilized to estimate the Q values. The evaluated inversion-based Q estimation method handles the wave-interference effects better than conventional spectral-ratio-based methods. For Q-compensation, we investigate why sparsity promoting does matter. Numerical and field data experiments indicate the feasibility of the evaluated method of Q-compensation without knowing Q but with wavelet given.  相似文献   

张家口蔚县农村房屋抗震性能调查及统计分析     

马旭东  牛露  刘晓丹  刘龙  茅远哲  关恒瑜  刘贾贾  刘志辉 《震灾防御技术》2019,14(4):829-837

为进一步了解蔚县地区农村房屋的抗震性能，在该地区选取43个村庄、7732栋房屋进行实地调查和统计分析。主要调查房屋结构、建筑材料、房屋抗震构造措施等内容，分析各结构类型房屋抗震薄弱环节及房屋抗震性能，并统计分析经济、交通、地形等因素与房屋结构类型及抗震性能的关系，提出提高该地区农村房屋抗震性能的建议。  相似文献