青藏高原及邻区未来地震活动性趋势数值分析          下载免费PDF全文

董培育  石耀霖  程惠红  乔学军 《地球物理学报》2020,63(3):1155-1169

区域中长期地震危险性数值分析研究,需要对其初始构造应力场有所了解,但目前以及未来一段时期内仍无法直接观测到深部孕震层区域的应力场状况.本文首先基于岩石库仑-摩尔破裂准则,利用青藏高原及邻区百年历史范围内的强震信息,来反演估算该区域的初始应力场.然后,考虑区域构造应力加载及强震造成的应力扰动共同作用,重现了历史强震的发展过程.然而对于初始应力场的反演估算,本文仅能给出区域其上下限的极限值,并不能唯一确定.因此,采用Monte Carlo随机法,进行大量独立的随机试验计算,生成数千种有差异的区域初始应力场模型,且保证每种模型都能令历史强震有序发生,但未来应力场演化过程不尽相同.最后,将数千种模型在未来时间段内的危险性预测结果集成为数理统计结果,据此给出了区域未来的地震危险性概率分布图.初步结果显示未来强震危险性概率较高地区集中在巴颜喀拉块体边界及鲜水河断裂带地区.  相似文献   

Riverine large wood and recreation safety: A framework to discretize and contextualize hazard     

Will Conley  Natalie Kramer 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2020,45(9):2201-2216

The importance of large wood (LW) to riverine functions is well established scientifically and increasingly recognized by river managers in many countries. However, public perceptions largely associate LW with elevated danger and/or need for intervention. Such perspectives are amplified amongst recreational river users (defined here as any individuals that recreate by floating on the water surface of a river) who interact more directly with rivers than the general public and commonly view wood in life-or-death terms. Given that human life occupies a highest-order charge for river managers, they are left in a difficult position when safety appears to conflict with environmental services. LW deficits are perpetuated partly because wood removal, often in the name of safety, is far easier than placing wood in rivers. Further, river restoration practitioners are frequently burdened with expectations and liability unparalleled in built environments. A fundamentally different mindset is necessary to achieve desired ecologic outcomes when working with rivers. Based on two decades of experience as boaters, LW practitioners, and emergency responders, we (1) discuss LW hazard and risk from recreational and management viewpoints, (2) discretize objective and measurable physical properties of LW hazards, and (3) propose a decision framework that implicitly addresses risk by considering LW hazards relative to river use and ambient hazards. The approach is structured to increase objectivity in LW hazard mitigation and diminish asymmetric biases that favor LW removal. Our intent is to build understanding and rational flexibility among risk-averse management, regulatory, and funding entities to facilitate implementation of scientific understanding without undue risk to river users. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

无人机技术在海岛测绘中的应用     

李雪瑞  魏征  田松  李明杰 《测绘通报》2020,(1):150-153

为提高海岛测绘的技术手段，将无人机引入海岛地形调查中，以Swallow-P小型固定翼无人机开展惠州市大亚湾虎洲海岛大比例尺测图为例，系统归纳了无人机外业数据采集与内业数据处理的具体流程，并制作了DEM和DOM成果；经过实测地面点精度分析得出虎洲无人机大比例尺测图成果平面位置中误差和高程中误差符合1∶1000测图精度要求。  相似文献   

面向数字孪生城市的智能化全息测绘   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

顾建祥  杨必胜  董震  杨常红 《测绘通报》2020,(6):134-140

以大数据、物联网、人工智能、虚拟现实、云计算、智能驾驶等新技术为代表的信息化浪潮席卷全球，数字世界与物理世界正形成两大平行发展、相互作用的体系，数字孪生技术应运而生。随着物联网技术（IOT）的发展，数字孪生的理念被引入到智慧城市建设中来，深刻影响着城市规划、建设与治理。笔者所在单位面向数字孪生城市和自然资源统一监管对测绘地理信息的新需求，在全国开创性地开展了面向数字孪生城市的智能化全息测绘试点工作。本文结合上海市智能化全息测绘试点工作，从数字孪生城市、数字孪生城市对地理信息的新需求、智能化全息测绘关键技术及测绘成果等方面展开了论述，重点介绍了智能化全息测绘的技术体系和产品体系，以及在社会各领域的应用成果。  相似文献   

基于已知特征平面的移动测量系统安置参数检校     

张顺  张帆  李珂 《北京测绘》2020,(3):437-442

安置误差是影响移动测量系统激光点云精度的主要因素之一。当激光点云中存在特征平面时,安置误差会导致该平面与真实平面之间产生较大的偏差,如果存在多个空间上位置关系较好的特征平面,就能够全面反映出系统的安置误差。本文以此为依据,给出了一种基于已知特征平面的移动测量系统安置参数检校方法,并详细阐述了检校场的布设、数据获取及处理等内容。实验证明,该方法是一种简单、可靠的检校方法,具有较高的实用性。  相似文献   

居住迁移对居民健康的影响研究进展述评     

程晗蓓  邹游  林赛南  李志刚 《地理科学进展》2020,39(7):1210-1223

进入城市时代以来,居住环境与居民健康的联系愈发密切,尤其在“流动性"增强的大背景下,居住迁移对居民健康的影响问题受到广泛关注。论文结合知识图谱分析和文献研究法,系统评述居住迁移影响居民健康问题的最新进展。研究发现：① 近15 a来,该领域的文献数量逐年增多,关注度持续上升;文献空间分布主要集中在发达国家,但不同地区的研究内容存在显著差异。② 主要研究对象由“同质性群体”向“异质性群体”转变,从“一般性群体”向“特殊群体”转变;研究方法由数理统计向混合研究、综合应用转变。③ 研究视角经历“人口迁移—个体健康”“居住迁移—环境—个体健康”与“迁居轨迹—环境演变—个体健康发展”等3个演变阶段。④ 近期研究重点有：迁居行为与儿童健康,迁居时空特征与身心健康,住房生涯与身心健康,邻里环境、累积剥夺与健康发展等。结合以上分析,提出如下建议：注重“整合性”分析;关注城市内部迁居行为和多次迁居轨迹对居民健康的影响;扩大迁居引发的“环境”因素(如居住隔离、社会分异、职住空间错位等)研究;更多关注迁居对二代流动人口儿童健康的影响,侧重对非正规居住空间如“城中村”等的研究。  相似文献   

Australian ‘gayborhoods’ and ‘lesborhoods’: a new method for estimating the number and prevalence of adult gay men and lesbian women living in each Australian postcode     

Denton Callander  Julie Mooney-Somers  Phillip Keen  Rebecca Guy  Tim Duck  Benjamin R. Bavinton 《International journal of geographical information science》2020,34(11):2160-2176

ABSTRACT

Gay men and lesbian women often demonstrate unique settlement patterns, forming what have been referred to as ‘gayborhoods’. This study sought to provide the first postcode-level estimates of population size and prevalence of gay and lesbian people in Australia. Data on same-gender-partnered households from the Australian Census were combined with information from six different surveys conducted from 2011 to 2017. We estimated that in 2016 there were 132,203 gay men (1.5% of adult males; 95% CI: 1.4–1.6) and 79,931 lesbian women (0.9% of adult females; 95% CI: 0.8–1.0) in Australia. While many postcodes were sparsely populated by gay and lesbian people (40.1% had prevalences of <0.1%), 24.6% were moderately populated (prevalences in the 50-95th percentile) and 2.7% were highly populated (95th percentile). By jurisdiction, the Australian Capital Territory had the highest prevalences of gay men (2.1%; 95% CI: 2.0–2.2) and lesbian women (1.5%; 95% CI: 1.4–1.6). Although the majority of highly populated postcodes were found in major cities (83.7%), some were also found in regional and remote area (16.3%). This method can be applied in other countries to enhance populate estimates. The accompanying dataset can be used to guide service delivery, conduct geographically contextualised research and develop policies relevant to gay men and lesbian women in Australia.  相似文献   

基于国家海洋治理和全球气候变化的我国海洋灾害防治          下载免费PDF全文

齐庆华 《海洋开发与管理》2019,36(2):17-23

为建立和完善现代化的海洋灾害防治体系,提高我国海洋治理和应对全球气候变化的能力,文章以全球治理和国家治理为背景,在明确致灾因子、承灾体、灾害以及灾害风险和管理等基本概念及其内涵的基础上,分析全球气候变化背景下我国海洋灾害及其风险的特征以及海洋灾害防治的关键性和基础性科学问题,并提出我国构建海洋灾害防治体系的建议。研究结果表明:在全球气候变化的影响下,我国沿海地区的海洋灾害风险复杂多变且有所提升;提出以群-环-域为主体的体系架构,研究全球气候变化与区域海洋的响应和反馈、全球气候变化背景下海洋灾害与风险的特征和规律以及综合海洋灾害风险评估和海洋灾害防治等问题;在我国构建海洋灾害防治体系的过程中,应加强科学研究以及技术和信息支撑、促进区域和全球联动联防以及提高全社会对海洋灾害的认知和防范水平。  相似文献   

Bathymetry,substrate and fishing areas of Southeast Atlantic high-seas seamounts   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

OA Bergstad  ÅS Høines  R Sarralde  G Campanis  M Gil  F Ramil 《African Journal of Marine Science》2019,41(1):11-28

Most of the Southeast Atlantic Ocean is abyssal, and global bathymetries suggest that only ～3.2% of the areas beyond national jurisdiction (ABNJ; also known as the high seas, as defined in the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea [UNCLOS]) are shallower than 2 500 m. This study mapped bathymetry and characterised substrates in selected seamount summit areas, including several that have been or may become fishing areas. The southernmost location, the Schmitt-Ott Seamount, has exposed volcanic bedrock with surrounding flats covered by thin biogenic sediments and/or coral rubble that appears ancient. At Wüst, Vema, Valdivia and Ewing seamounts the basaltic base appears to be overlain by coral caps and other coral substrates (sheets, rubble). Adjacent summit plains have biogenic sediments of varying thickness. Vema has a flat, roughly circular summit, <100 m deep, with the shallowest point being a 22-m-deep summit knoll; the upper slopes have ancient coral framework, but the summit has a mixture of coralline and volcanic rock and coarse sediments, including extensive areas with coralline algae and kelp forests. Valdivia Bank is a 230-m-deep, flat, rocky area (～11 × 5 km), protruding steeply from the extensive multi-summit Valdivia subarea of the Walvis Ridge. The distribution of past fisheries in the Convention Area of the South East Atlantic Fisheries Organisation (SEAFO) was considered in relation to the new information on bathymetry and substrate.  相似文献   

基于Datist的测震分析月报自动产出技术研发     

王宇航  庞瑶  宫悦  颜利君  黄春梅 《四川地震》2020,(1):40-43

针对四川测震台网运行月报中关于测震分析章节编写过程中的程序化工作流程,依托于数据专家(Datist)自动化流程实现了数据源读取、数据清洗、目录统计、绘制震中分布图、计算速报结果自评和报告自动产出等功能,辅助完成月报生成。实践证明该成果可有效减轻地震监测人员的工作负担,提高工作效率。  相似文献