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1.
大地震在哪里发生是地震预报首先要解决的问题.利用反演GNSS观测数据得到的2011年日本东北9级大地震前7年(2004—2010年)断层上的应力变化,我们发现了这次地震断层的孕震区.为了进一步研究该孕震区的演化过程,本文继续反演这次大地震在1997—2003年间的断层应力变化过程.通过这两期的反演工作,我们看到,在这14年中,断层应力的年变化图案的主要特征基本是稳定的,并存在明显的应力增加区和降低区.前者与地震的破裂区吻合,后者与前震、重复小地震和无震滑动的区域一致.显著的剪切应力增加区不但与主震,而且还与大余震的破裂区相符合.我们发现断层面上高应力积累区的零剪应力和零正应力变化的等值线不重合,前者在断层面上的深度大于后者,这意味着在剪应力增加区存在着正应力降低区或剪切强度降低区(由于剪切强度与正应力成正比).断层初始破裂点似乎更偏好零正应力等值线附近的位置,这是因为该处不但靠近剪切强度降低区,而且位于剪应力积累最显著的地方.研究结果表明,正应力变化对大地震的初始破裂有影响;本文所使用的断层应力变化反演方法,可以用来作为预测大地震发生位置的一种手段.  相似文献   
2.
利用机器学习方法对地震活动大数据进行挖掘,识别出一些过去认识不到的异常,提高地震预测的准确性,是一个非常具有挑战性的科学问题.本文基于川滇部分地区(24°N—32°N,98°E—106°E)地震目录,采用滑动的时空窗口,选取16个反映地震时空强度分布特征的地震预测因子,建立了长短时记忆(LSTM)神经网络,对研究区域9个子区块未来一年的最大地震震级进行预测.通过设置训练集∶测试集=8∶2和训练集∶测试集=7∶3两个不同的训练测试模型,对过往发生的地震进行了回溯性预报.结果表明:训练集∶测试集=7∶3模型能够利用1970年1月至2004年9月的地震目录进行学习,成功回溯性预报2008年汶川地震;训练集∶测试集=8∶2模型利用1970年1月至2009年5月资料进行训练,回溯性预报2010—2019年间6级以上地震的R评分为0.407,回溯性7级地震预报时准确率高达92.31%.本文还探讨性给出预测意见:2022年2月前研究区西部、中部、东部、西南部存在发生5.1~5.3级地震的潜在危险性.  相似文献   
3.
The simplified macro‐equations of porous elastic media are presented based on Hickey's theory upon ignoring effects of thermomechanical coupling and fluctuations of porosity and density induced by passing waves. The macro‐equations with definite physical parameters predict two types of compressional waves (P wave) and two types of shear waves (S wave). The first types of P and S waves, similar to the fast P wave and S wave in Biot's theory, propagate with fast velocity and have relatively weak dispersion and attenuation, while the second types of waves behave as diffusive modes due to their distinct dispersion and strong attenuation. The second S wave resulting from the bulk and shear viscous loss within pore fluid is slower than the second P wave but with strong attenuation at lower frequencies. Based on the simplified porous elastic equations, the effects of petrophysical parameters (permeability, porosity, coupling density and fluid viscosity) on the velocity dispersion and attenuation of P and S waves are studied in brine‐saturated sandstone compared with the results of Biot's theory. The results show that the dispersion and attenuation of P waves in simplified theory are stronger than those of Biot's theory and appear at slightly lower frequencies because of the existence of bulk and shear viscous loss within pore fluid. The properties of the first S wave are almost consistent with the S wave in Biot's theory, while the second S wave not included in Biot's theory even dies off around its source due to its extremely strong attenuation. The permeability and porosity have an obvious impact on the velocity dispersion and attenuation of both P and S waves. Higher permeabilities make the peaks of attenuation shift towards lower frequencies. Higher porosities correspond to higher dispersion and attenuation. Moreover, the inertial coupling between fluid and solid induces weak velocity dispersion and attenuation of both P and S waves at higher frequencies, whereas the fluid viscosity dominates the dispersion and attenuation in a macroscopic porous medium. Besides, the heavy oil sand is used to investigate the influence of high viscous fluid on the dispersion and attenuation of both P and S waves. The dispersion and attenuation in heavy oil sand are stronger than those in brine‐saturated sandstone due to the considerable shear viscosity of heavy oil. Seismic properties are strongly influenced by the fluid viscosity; thus, viscosity should be included in fluid properties to explain solid–fluid combination behaviour properly.  相似文献   
4.
强震孕育发生及其复发过程的定量研究对于预测预报地震有着重要的科学意义;合理连续地计算地震孕育、同震破裂过程及其复发循环特征将有助于我们更好地认识强震发生的时空分布规律.为此,本文基于Newmark隐式时间积分法,根据模拟孕震-同震循环过程的特殊要求,发展了一种新的有限单元计算方法.新方法具有以下特点:(1)在不改变时间积分方法的情况下,实现对时间步长进行自动平滑地缩放,进而可以连续的模拟准静态、动态不同力学状态下的孕震-同震循环过程;(2)模型的初始应力场非人为指定,计算时通过施加重力及缓慢的构造加载获得;(3)地震破裂的成核区域及成核方式等亦非人为给定,模拟中破裂成核是自然形成的,这样更加符合实际地震地质情况.通过大量的模型计算,其结果表明,新的计算方法可以连续稳定的模拟断层孕震-同震及其循环过程,计算结果不仅可以给出强震的复发间隔,同时还可以给出地震时断层破裂行为的详细过程.此外,本文还考察了摩擦系数对地震准周期性的影响,发现断层上的静、动摩擦系数差值直接影响着断层的强震复发周期,两者差值越小,复发周期越短;差值越大,复发间隔越长.  相似文献   
5.
To investigate the seismic response of a pile group during liquefaction, shaking table tests on a 1/25 scale model of a 2 × 2 pile group were conducted, which were pilot tests of a test project of a scale-model offshore wind turbine with jacket foundation. A large laminar shear box was utilized as the soil container to prepare a liquefiable sandy ground specimen. The pile group model comprising four slender aluminum piles with their pile heads connected by a rigid frame was designed with similitude considerations focusing on soil–pile interaction. The input motions were 2-Hz sinusoids with various acceleration amplitudes. The excess pore water pressure generation indicated that the upper half of the ground specimen reached initial liquefaction under the 50-gal-amplitude excitation, whereas in the 75-gal-amplitude test, almost entire ground was liquefied. Accelerations in soil, on the movable frames composing the laminar boundary of the shear box, and along the pile showed limited difference at the same elevation before liquefaction. After liquefaction, the soil and the movable-frame accelerations that represented the ground response considerably reduced, whereas both the movable frames and the piles exhibited high-frequency jitters other than 2-Hz sinusoid, and meantime, remarkable phase difference between the responses of the pile group and the ground was observed, all probably due to the substantial degradation of liquefied soil. Axial strains along the pile implied its double-curvature bending behavior, and the accordingly calculated moment declined significantly after liquefaction. These observations demonstrated the interaction between soil and piles during liquefaction.  相似文献   
6.
2022年1月8日1时45分青海省门源县发生MS6.9地震.本文基于青藏高原东北缘水平分辨率为0.3°的地震层析成像结果,获取了震源周边区域的地壳浅部构造信息,包括波速、泊松比以及估计的裂隙密度和饱和率的空间分布.结果表明:此次门源MS6.9地震发生在P波和S波波速剧烈变化的区域,靠近高速体的边缘.泊松比和饱和率同样都显示,门源MS6.9地震发生在高低值变化的过渡区.地震活动参数分析显示,震前冷龙岭断裂带的震源周边区域显示出了低b值、较低的a值和高a/b值的特征,与龙门山—岷山构造带强震之前的情况类似.裂隙密度在冷龙岭断裂两侧呈现出显著差异,北侧高于南侧,这可能是震后现场科考发现的断裂带地表破裂北侧高于南侧的构造成因.  相似文献   
7.
This study identified soft–sediment deformation structures(SSDS) of seismic origin from lacustrine sediments in the late Quaternary paleo–dammed lake at Tashkorgan, northeastern Pamir. The observed deformation structures include sand dykes, liquefied diapir and convolute structures, gravity induced SSDS, and thixotropic pillar and tabular structures. We conducted a preliminary study on the morphology, formation and trigger mechanisms of pillar and tabular structures formed by liquefaction of underlying coarse sand and thixotropy of the upper silty clay. The regional tectonic setting and distribution of lacustrine strata indicate that the most probable trigger for the SSDS in lacustrine sediments was seismic activity, with an approximate earthquake magnitude of M6.0; the potential seismogenic fault is the southern part of the Kongur normal fault extensional system. AMS 14 C dating results indicate that the SSDS were formed by seismic events occurring between 26050±100 yr BP and 22710±80 yr BP, implying intense fault activity in this region during the late Pleistocene. This study provides new evidence for understanding tectonic activity and regional geodynamics in western China.  相似文献   
8.
泥流型黄土滑坡发生的条件除一般滑坡具有的条件之外,还应包括特殊的状态因素、触发因素及相应的驱动剪应力条件。通过对甘肃岷县永光村滑坡的现场勘察和实地调查,分析其成因,结果表明:永光村滑坡平面形态虽与泥流类似,但其具有滑坡形成区以及滑坡发生所需要的特殊的地形地貌、岩土体性质以及水文地质条件。永光村滑坡发育于沟道上游的黄土塬地带,临空面较大,滑坡剪出口位置高,具有较高的势能,滑坡体的主要岩土体是马兰黄土,黄土具有大孔隙结构,垂直节理发育,有利于地表水的下渗。下部为新近系泥岩,渗透系数低,为一相对隔水层。长期灌溉导致地下水位较高,黄土层存在软弱夹层,地下水位上升,导致其软化饱和,强度迅速降低,形成潜在滑动面。永光村滑坡亦具有圆弧形的滑坡后壁,滑坡后缘顶部分布有多条拉张裂缝,在前期发生降雨的外部条件下,在岷县“7·22”地震诱发下,发生了低角度、快速和远程的泥流型黄土滑坡,滑体在冲出沟口后形成了扇形堆积区。永光村滑坡是一种特殊的地震引发的泥流型黄土滑坡。目前,泥流型黄土滑坡的研究还处在探索阶段,是作为黄土滑坡分类的一种补充,建议进一步加强对此类灾害发生机理及其稳定性计算方法的深入研究。  相似文献   
9.
《China Geology》2019,2(2):179-188
The migration of multi-wave seismic data is aimed at obtaining the P- and S-wave imaging results of the amplitude preserving. But the P- and S-wave stretching effect produced by the reverse time migration of the elastic wave equation will not only reduce the vertical resolution of the migration results and the amplitude preserving of the large reflection angle. In this paper, the reverse time migration technique of amplitude preserving vector wave-field separating is used. Based on the analysis of the stretch mechanism and the influencing factors of stretch magnitude, the paper gave the stretch correcting factors. Then, realize the stretch correction method at the time that after the reverse extrapolation and before the imaging by solving the problem which is how to calculate the P-wave and Ps-wave propagation directions of imaging points at different times. The stretch correction method can improve the vertical resolution and amplitude fidelity of the imaging results and provide high fidelity input data for seismic data interpretation and inversion.© 2019 China Geology Editorial Office.  相似文献   
10.
针对四川测震台网运行月报中关于测震分析章节编写过程中的程序化工作流程,依托于数据专家(Datist)自动化流程实现了数据源读取、数据清洗、目录统计、绘制震中分布图、计算速报结果自评和报告自动产出等功能,辅助完成月报生成。实践证明该成果可有效减轻地震监测人员的工作负担,提高工作效率。  相似文献   
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