基于小波变换与神经网络的石羊河流域夏季地温预测模型研究   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

贾东于  李开明  聂晓英  袁春霞  李清峰  高福元 《冰川冻土》2020,42(2):412-422

地温变化在气候反馈效应中起着重要作用， 理解地温及其与影响因素之间的时空关系对预测全球温度变化至关重要。利用1998 - 2017年石羊河流域的逐日常规气象观测资料， 采用小波分析结合BP（Back Propagation）神经网络构建了石羊河流域夏季地温预报模型， 结果表明： 日平均地温预测效果在不同站点均为最佳， 其中预测值和观测值的相关系数均大于0.87， 3 ℃以内的预测概率均大于84%。其中， 民勤地区地温预测效果最好， 预测值和观测值的相关系数达到0.91， 3 ℃以内的预测概率达到86%。日最高地温的预测值与观测值的相关系数高于0.8， 但误差平方和、 标准差较大。永昌地区日最高地温的模拟效果最好， 3 ℃以内的预测概率达到83%。日最低地温的预测与观测值的平均相关系数高于0.66， 3 ℃以内的预报概率高于83%， 但预测值略低。其中， 武威地区日最低地温的预测效果最好， 预测值与观测值的相关系数为0.72， 3 ℃以内的预测概率达到94%。研究成果可为有效弥补干旱、 半干旱区地温观测资料缺失和探讨其与局地气候的关系提供一些参考。  相似文献   

长江河口潮波传播机制及阈值效应分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

张先毅  黄竞争  杨昊  欧素英  刘锋  蔡华阳  杨清书 《海洋与湖沼》2019,50(4):788-798

河口潮波传播过程受沿程地形(如河宽辐聚、水深变化)及上游径流等诸多因素影响,时空变化复杂。径潮动力非线性相互作用研究有利于揭示河口潮波传播的动力学机制,对河口区水资源高效开发利用具有重要指导意义。本文基于2007—2009年长江河口沿程天生港、江阴、镇江、南京、马鞍山、芜湖的逐日高、低潮位数据及大通站日均流量数据,统计分析不同河段潮波衰减率与余水位坡度随流量的变化特征,结果表明潮波衰减率绝对值与余水位坡度随流量增大并不是单调递增,而是存在一个阈值流量和区域,对应潮波衰减效应的极大值。为揭示这一阈值现象,采用一维水动力解析模型对研究河段的潮波传播过程进行模拟。结果表明,潮波传播的阈值现象主要是由于洪季上游回水作用随流量加强,余水位及水深增大,导致河口辐聚程度减小,而余水位坡度为适应河口形状变化亦有所减小,从而形成相对应的阈值流量和区域。  相似文献   

Modeling spatially non-stationary land use/cover change in the lower Connecticut River Basin by combining geographically weighted logistic regression and the CA-Markov model   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Hui Wang  Scott R. Stephenson  Shijin Qu 《International journal of geographical information science》2019,33(7):1313-1334

Simulating land use/cover change (LUCC) and determining its transition rules have been a focus of research for several decades. Previous studies used ordinary logistic regression (OLR) to determine transition rules in cellular automata (CA) modeling of LUCC, which often neglected the spatially non-stationary relationships between driving factors and land use/cover categories. We use an integrated geographically weighted logistic regression (GWLR) CA-Markov method to simulate LUCC from 2001–2011 over 29 towns in the Connecticut River Basin. Results are compared with those obtained from the OLR-CA-Markov method, and the sensitivity of LUCC simulated by the GWLR-CA-Markov method to the spatial non-stationarity-based suitability map is investigated. Analysis of residuals indicates better goodness of fit in model calibration for geographically weighted regression (GWR) than OLR. Coefficients of driving factors indicate that GWLR outperforms OLR in depicting the local suitability of land use/cover categories. Kappa statistics of the simulated maps indicate high agreement with observed land use/cover for both OLR-CA-Markov and GWLR-CA-Markov methods. Similarity in simulation accuracy between the methods suggests that the sensitivity of simulated LUCC to suitability inputs is low with respect to spatial non-stationarity. Therefore, this study provides critical insight on the role of spatial non-stationarity throughout the process of LUCC simulation.  相似文献   

近六百年来长江三角洲地区城镇空间与城镇体系格局演变分析     

覃丽君  金晓斌  蒋宇超  薛樵风  成一农  龙瀛  杨绪红  周寅康 《地理研究》2019,38(5):1045-1062

基于历史文献、古地图和现代遥感数据,引入历史学古代城镇形态复原方法,复原（提取）明代以来长江三角洲地区113座城镇7个时间断面（1461年、1820年、1930年、1970年、1980年、2000年和2010年）下的城镇边界,采用扩张速率、扩张效率、首位度指数和位序-规模法则,分析了近六百年来区域城镇空间与城镇体系等级规模演变格局。取得以下研究结果：\mathrm{①}研究时段内,区内城镇用地总规模由205.98 km²增加到6442.19 km²,扩大了31.27倍;城镇扩张经历了萌芽阶段（明清时期）、起步阶段（民国至改革开放前夕）、成长阶段（改革开放至2000年）和加速阶段（2000—2010年）,城镇扩张速率不断加快,但扩张效率有待提升;\mathrm{②}在城镇等级规模空间格局上,明清时期南京与苏州为区内的一级城镇,民国后,上海逐渐取代其地位,从五级城镇发展成为区域核心城镇,四级以上城镇主要集中在长江干流沿岸和太湖流域,五级以下城镇大多集中在安徽;城镇体系呈首位型分布,城镇首位度较高,且改革开放后的城镇首位度较明清与民国时期要高,不同等级规模城镇之间差距扩大,大城镇优势较强。近30年,长江沿岸城镇发展加速,苏锡常都市圈、南京都市圈等逐渐形成并快速发展。  相似文献   

黄河干流头道拐河段凌汛期小流量过程变化及其影响因素研究     

全栋  李超  路新川  史小红  杨朝霞 《冰川冻土》2020,42(2):620-628

黄河干流内蒙古段河道冬季流凌封河期， 河道水量除一部分转化为冰量外， 很大一部分转化为槽蓄水量而贮存在河道中， 导致下游头道拐河段出现小流量过程， 上游河道流量转化为槽蓄水量和贮存的冰量越大， 小流量持续时间越长， 开河期发生凌汛洪水风险越高。通过对1998 - 2016年头道拐站凌讯期流量变化过程分析， 重新界定了小流量上限阈值为330 m³·s^-1， 并且以此值为标准进行小流量过程研究， 分别采用R/S极差分析法、 Fourier变换分析法对近年来小流量过程变化特征进行分析； 结合非线性概率Logit模型和Probit模型对小流量过程的影响因素进行讨论。结果表明： 小流量持续天数变化呈现缩短趋势； 同时， 小流量过程与上游相对来水之间变化关系显著且过程同步， 而滞后于河道槽蓄水量变化过程； 通过Logit模型和Probit模型分析各影响因素变化时相应小流量持续时间变化的响应概率大小， 明确河道冰流量是小流量过程第一影响因素， 气温条件是小流量过程的决定因素， 首封位置和相对来水量是小流量过程重要影响因素。  相似文献   

Morphology and dynamics of the intertidal floodplain along the Amazon tidal river     

Aaron T. Fricke  Charles A. Nittrouer  Andrea S. Ogston  Daniel J. Nowacki  Nils E. Asp  Pedro W. M. Souza Filho 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2019,44(1):204-218

Depositional environments along the tidal river downstream of Óbidos have been proposed as important sinks for up to one third of the sediment discharge from the Amazon River. However, the morphology of the intertidal floodplain and the dynamics of sediment exchange along this reach have yet to be described. River-bank surveys in five regions along the Amazon tidal river reveal a distinct transition in bank morphology between the upper, central and lower reaches of the tidal river. The upper tidal-river floodplain is defined by prominent natural levees that control the transfer of water and sediment between the mainstem Amazon River and its floodplain. Greater tidal influence in the central tidal river suppresses levee development, and tidal currents increase sediment transport into the distal parts of the floodplain. In the lower tidal river, the floodplain morphology closely resembles marine intertidal environments (e.g. mud flats, salt marshes), with dendritic tidal channels incising elevated vegetated flats. Theory, morphology and geochronology suggest that the dynamics of sediment delivery to the intertidal floodplain of the Amazon tidal river vary along its length due to the relative influence and coupling of fluvial and tidal dynamics. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

我国瓯江口和珠江口凤鲚洄游模式和生境利用研究     

姜涛  刘洪波  黄洪辉  杨健 《海洋学报(英文版)》2019,38(8):35-40

Habitat use of the tapertail anchovy(Coilia mystus Linnaeus, 1758) from the Oujiang River Estuary and the Zhujiang(Pearl) River Estuary was studied by examining the environmental signatures of Sr and Ca in otoliths using electron probe microanalysis. Individuals from the Oujiang River had higher and varied Sr:Ca ratios(expressed as(Sr:Ca)×1 000, 3.83–13.0 average) in the otolith core regions, suggesting that they were born in brackish or sea waters, and that a freshwater habitat might not be necessary for egg hatching and larval growth.While, individuals from the Zhujiang River had lower Sr:Ca ratios(0.39–2.51 average) in the core regions,suggesting a freshwater origin. After hatching, anchovies from the Zhujiang River migrate downstream to the river estuary close to brackish water. Our results demonstrated varied habitat use for spawning during stages of early life history between the two populations, and suggested that such variations are promoting diversity of life history strategies of this species.  相似文献   

九龙江口浮游植物群体对盐度胁迫的快速适应     

李刚 《海洋学报(英文版)》2019,38(8):78-85

Mixing of freshwater and seawater creates the well-known salinity gradients along the estuaries. In order to investigate how phytoplankton respond to the acute salinity changes, we exposed natural phytoplankton assemblies from the Jiulong River Estuary to differential saline field water while continuously monitoring their photosynthetic performances under both indoor-and outdoor-growth conditions. When the natural cell assemblies from salinity 30 field water were exposed to series low saline field water(salinity 25, 17, 13 and 7.5), the effective Photosystem II quantum yield(ΔF/F_m′) decreased sharply, e.g., to one-fifth of its initials after 5 min exposure to salinity 7.5 field water, and then increased fast during the following 40 min and almost completely recovered after 320 min. During such an exposure process, non-photochemical quenching(NPQ) sharply increased from 0 to 0.85 within 5 min, and then decreased to nearly 0 within the following 70 min. When these cells re-acclimated to salinity 7.5 field water were exposed to series high saline field water(salinity 13, 17, 25 and 30), a similar response pattern was observed, with the decreased ΔF/F_m′ accompanied with increased NPQ, and followed by the recovery-induced increase in ΔF/F_m′ and decrease in NPQ. A similar response pattern as ΔF/F_m′to the acute osmotic stress was also observed in the photosynthetic carbon fixation capacity according to radiocarbon(~(14)C) incorporation. Our results indicate that estuarine phytoplankton assemblies could rapidly recover from the acute osmotic stress, implying a potential cause for their frequent blooms in coastal-estuarine waters where despite drastically varying salinity, available nutrients are abundant due to the land-derived runoffs or mixing-caused relaxations from sediments.  相似文献   

基于污染负荷核算的岷江流域总磷污染成因分析及对策     

温泉  马迎群  时瑶  迟明慧  秦延文  刘志超  杨晨晨 《地学前缘》2020,27(4):332-339

总磷是长江流域水环境污染的首要超标因子,岷江作为长江上游流量最大的支流,总磷污染严重,对长江总磷污染贡献较大。为了解岷江流域总磷污染,采用排污系数法,计算得到2016年岷江流域污染源总磷入河量为1 154 t,以农村生活污染负荷占比最高(51.3%),其次为城镇生活源(28.7%)、农业非点源(8.24%)、工业源(9.57%)、畜禽养殖源(1.21%),城市径流源(0.99%)最低;在空间上岷江流域总磷污染负荷呈中游(64.2%)>下游(32.6%)>上游(3.1%)的特点,与岷江干流总磷浓度变化趋势相符,其中成都市总磷污染负荷最高(51.2%),与区域人口密度高、生产和生活活动密集有关。结合资料收集和现场调查,岷江流域总磷污染成因主要包括农村生活污染治理缺口较大、城镇生活污染处理基础设施建设不足、工业企业密布、部分支流总磷污染严重、水污染治理导向不全面。针对岷江总磷污染负荷分布特征及成因,提出“上游保护优质水体、中游治理重污染水体、下游恢复不达标水体”的分区污染防治对策,统筹流域监管体制机制,强化岷江流域水环境保护和治理。  相似文献   

天山南坡高冰川覆盖率的木扎提河流域水文过程对气候变化的响应   总被引：5，自引：5，他引：0  

赵求东  赵传成  秦艳  苌亚平  王建 《冰川冻土》2020,42(4):1285-1298

木扎提河是天山南坡冰川面积覆盖率最大（48.2%）的河流， 流域径流过程对气候变化极为敏感， 为了合理管理和规划水资源， 确保水资源的可持续利用， 亟需定量评估气候变化对该流域水文过程的影响。以VIC-CAS分布式水文模型为计算平台， 利用实测的径流和两次冰川编目间的冰川面积变化数据开展了模型的多目标参数化校正和验证， 有效提高了模拟结果的“真实性”， 然后通过数值模拟结果结合观测数据定量解析了流域径流的组成、 变化特征及对气候变化的响应机理。结果表明： 木扎提河总径流集中在暖季（5 - 9月）， 占全年总径流量的77.9%， 冰川径流、 融雪径流和降雨径流分别占总径流量的66.6%、 26.4%和7.0%。1971 - 2010年木扎提河流域气温和降水呈显著增加趋势， 由于降水的增加， 降雨和融雪径流均呈增加趋势， 但冰川径流呈现明显减少趋势， 导致总径流呈现下降趋势。在RCP4.5情景下， 未来该流域气温呈现明显升高趋势， 降水表现为微弱下降趋势； 气候变暖后， 更多降水以降雨形式发生， 未来降雨径流将明显增加， 降雪和融雪径流已于20世纪90年代达到峰值， 随后明显减少； 冰川面积将持续萎缩， 冰川径流于21世纪10年代达到拐点， 随后明显减少， 导致河道总径流量也将明显减少。  相似文献