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1.
This article illustrates the main difficulties encountered in the preparation of GHG emission projections and climate change mitigation policies and measures (P&M) for Kazakhstan. Difficulties in representing the system with an economic model have been overcome by representing the energy system with a technical-economic growth model (MARKAL-TIMES) based on the stock of existing plants, transformation processes, and end-use devices. GHG emission scenarios depend mainly on the pace of transition in Kazakhstan from a planned economy to a market economy. Three scenarios are portrayed: an incomplete transition, a fast and successful one, and even more advanced participation in global climate change mitigation, including participation in some emission trading schemes. If the transition to a market economy is completed by 2020, P&M already adopted may reduce emissions of CO2 from combustion by about 85 MtCO2 by 2030 – 17% of the emissions in the baseline (WOM) scenario. One-third of these reductions are likely to be obtained from the demand sectors, and two-thirds from the supply sectors. If every tonne of CO2 not emitted is valued up to US$10 in 2020 and $20 in 2030, additional P&M may further reduce emissions by 110 MtCO2 by 2030.  相似文献   
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Bottom-up and top-down models are used to support climate policies, to identify the options required to meet GHG abatement targets and to evaluate their economic impact. Some studies have shown that the GHG mitigation options provided by economic top-down and technological bottom-up models tend to vary. One reason for this is that these models tend to use different baseline scenarios. The bottom-up TIMES_PT and the top-down computable general equilibrium GEM-E3_PT models are examined using a common baseline scenario to calibrate them, and the extend of their different mitigation options and its relevant to domestic policy making are assessed. Three low-carbon scenarios for Portugal until 2050 are generated, each with different GHG reduction targets. Both models suggest close mitigation options and locate the largest mitigation potential to energy supply. However, the models suggest different mitigation options for the end-use sectors: GEM-E3_PT focuses more on energy efficiency, while TIMES_PT relies on decrease carbon intensity due to a shift to electricity. Although a common baseline scenario cannot be ignored, the models’ inherent characteristics are the main factor for the different outcomes, thereby highlighting different mitigation options.

Policy relevance

The relevance of modelling tools used to support the design of domestic climate policies is assessed by evaluating the mitigation options suggested by a bottom-up and a top-down model. The different outcomes of each model are significant for climate policy design since each suggest different mitigation options like end-use energy efficiency and the promotion of low-carbon technologies. Policy makers should carefully select the modelling tool used to support their policies. The specific modelling structures of each model make them more appropriate to address certain policy questions than others. Using both modelling approaches for policy support can therefore bring added value and result in more robust climate policy design. Although the results are specific for Portugal, the insights provided by the analysis of both models can be extended to, and used in the climate policy decisions of, other countries.  相似文献   
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air pollution, trend and variability, socioeconomic development, satellite measurements, bottom-up emission inventories, top-down constraints  相似文献   
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近年来云南高原湖泊面临富营养化、渔业活动增强等多重环境压力的叠加影响,对湖泊的有效治理与生态修复急需对多重压力下生态系统的响应模式进行系统了解.现有研究表明在系统生产力和捕食压力的不同配置下,湖泊系统主要组成(如浮游动物)的响应特征可能出现差异且捕食压力可能随营养水平的变化而改变,目前对云南湖泊生态系统的研究主要集中于单一环境压力下的生态响应.本研究以目前分别处于重富营养和中-贫营养水平的滇池和抚仙湖为研究对象,应用湖泊沉积物记录进行多指标分析,探讨受外来鱼类影响下两个大型湖泊浮游动物长期响应模式的异同.通过象鼻溞生物量与个体大小等指标,重建了近百年来滇池与抚仙湖典型浮游动物的变化历史,结果表明随着湖泊生产力水平(如沉积物色素生产量)的增加,2个湖泊中象鼻溞生物量显著增加,同时物种相对组成出现明显变化(如Bosmina longispina被B.longirostris取代),指示湖泊上行效应对浮游动物的控制作用.同时象鼻溞的生物量、壳长与触角长度的变化在1960s与1980s有明显降低的趋势,与同期外来鱼类(如银鱼)引入与渔业产量增加的时间一致.进一步应用多变量回归分析与方差分解方法来定量评价上行与下行效应对象鼻溞生物量变化的驱动强度,结果表明富营养化(沉积物色素)和捕食作用(象鼻溞壳长)对浮游动物长期变化的驱动强度比较相似(分别解释了生物量变化的77.25%和83.59%),然而在滇池下行效应对象鼻溞生物量的独立影响比在贫营养的抚仙湖中更强(分别为15.46%和10.39%),上行效应对象鼻溞生物量的影响在抚仙湖要明显强于滇池(分别为69.74%和19.67%),而在滇池上行与下行效应的相互作用强度明显强于抚仙湖(分别为42.12%和3.46%).结果表明随着湖泊营养水平的升高,浮游动物的生物量在2个湖泊中均显著增加,而外来鱼类(如太湖新银鱼)的引入和经济鱼类数量的增加加剧了对浮游动物的捕食压力,造成了浮游动物的生物量降低和个体减小.但在快速富营养化的滇池,对浮游动物的捕食压力随营养水平的变化出现较强的依赖性,而在总体处于中-贫营养水平的抚仙湖中此相互作用较弱.结果表明在不同营养水平的大型湖泊中,营养水平的变化幅度可以导致鱼类捕食压力的差异性变化,指示了对鱼类捕食压力的评价和浮游动物长期变化的特征分析需要考虑湖泊的营养水平与富营养化过程的差异.总之,富营养化和外来鱼类的引入导致了高原湖泊生态系统的快速响应与结构变化,因此对高原湖泊的生态修复需要考虑湖泊营养水平对生态系统结构与食物链作用的影响.  相似文献   
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Agriculture is responsible for approximately 25% of anthropogenic global GHG emissions. This significant share highlights the fundamental importance of the agricultural sector in the global GHG emissions reduction challenge. This article develops and tests a methodology for the integration of agricultural and energy systems modelling. The goal of the research is to extend an energy systems modelling approach to agriculture in order to provide richer insights into the dynamics and interactions between the two (e.g. in competition for land-use). We build Agri-TIMES, an agricultural systems module using the TIMES energy systems modelling framework, to model the effect of livestock emissions and explore emissions reduction options. The research focuses on Ireland, which is an interesting test case for two reasons: first, agriculture currently accounts for about 30% of Ireland's GHG emissions, significantly higher than other industrialized countries yet comparable with global levels (here including emissions associated with other land-use change and forestation); second, Ireland is both a complete and reasonably sized agricultural system to act as a test case for this new approach. This article describes the methodology used, the data requirements, and technical assumptions made to facilitate the modelling. It also presents results to illustrate the approach and provide associated initial insights.

Policy relevance

Most of the policy focus with regard to climate mitigation targets has been on reducing energy-related CO2 emissions, which is understandable as they represent by far the largest source of emissions. Non-energy-related GHG emissions – largely from agriculture, industrial processes, and waste – have received significantly less attention in policy discourse. Going forward, however, if significant cuts are made in energy-related CO2 emissions, the role of non-energy-related GHG emissions will grow in importance. It is therefore crucial that climate mitigation analyses and strategies are not limited to the energy system. This article shows the value of using integrated energy and agriculture techno-economic modelling techniques to draw evidence for new comprehensive climate policy strategies able to discern between the full range of technical solutions available. It enables the production of economy-wide least-cost climate mitigation pathways.  相似文献   

8.
Institution-oriented, top-down and community-oriented, bottom-up stakeholder approaches are evaluated for their ability to enable or constrain the implementation of adaptation in developing nations. A systematic review approach is used evaluate the project performance of 18 adaptation projects by three of the Global Environment Facility's (GEF) adaptation programmes (the Strategic Priority for Adaptation (SPA), the Special Climate Change Fund (SCCF), and the National Adaptation Programs of Action (NAPA)) according to effectiveness, efficiency, equity, legitimacy, flexibility, sustainability, and replicability. The ten SPA projects reviewed performed highest overall, especially with regards to efficiency, legitimacy, and replicability. The five SCCF projects performed the highest in equity, flexibility, and sustainability, and the three NAPA-related projects were the highest-performing projects with regards to effectiveness. A comparison of top-down and bottom-up approaches revealed that community stakeholder engagement in project design and implementation led to higher effectiveness, efficiency, equity, flexibility, legitimacy, sustainability, and replicability. Although low institutional capacity constrained both project success and effective community participation, projects that hired international staff to assist in implementation experienced higher overall performance. These case studies also illustrate how participatory methods can fail to genuinely empower or involve communities in adaptation interventions in both top-down and bottom-up approaches. It is thus crucial to carefully consider stakeholder engagement strategies in adaptation interventions.Policy relevanceWhile adaptation is now firmly on the policy and research agenda, actual interventions to reduce vulnerability and enhance resilience remain in their infancy, and there is limited information on the factors that influence the successful implementation of adaptation in developing areas. Engaging stakeholders in assessing vulnerability and implementing adaptation interventions is widely regarded to be an important factor for adaptation implementation and success. However, no study has evaluated the effects of stakeholder engagement in the actual implementation of adaptation initiatives. Effective stakeholder engagement is challenging, especially in a developing nation setting, due to high levels of poverty, inadequate knowledge on adaptation options, weak institutions, and competing interests to address more immediate problems related to poverty and underdevelopment. In this context, this article documents and characterizes stakeholder engagement in adaptation interventions supported through the GEF, examining how top-down or bottom-up stakeholder approaches enable or constrain project performance.  相似文献   
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ABSTRACT

We explore how to address the challenges of adaptation of water resources systems under changing conditions by supporting flexible, resilient and low-regret solutions, coupled with on-going monitoring and evaluation. This will require improved understanding of the linkages between biophysical and social aspects in order to better anticipate the possible future co-evolution of water systems and society. We also present a call to enhance the dialogue and foster the actions of governments, the international scientific community, research funding agencies and additional stakeholders in order to develop effective solutions to support water resources systems adaptation. Finally, we call the scientific community to a renewed and unified effort to deliver an innovative message to stakeholders. Water science is essential to resolve the water crisis, but the effectiveness of solutions depends, inter alia, on the capability of scientists to deliver a new, coherent and technical vision for the future development of water systems.
EDITOR D. Koutsoyiannis; ASSOCIATE EDITOR not assigned  相似文献   
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