Taguchi design-based seismic reliability analysis of geostructures     

M. A. Hariri-Ardebili  P. Boodagh 《Georisk: Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards》2019,13(1):34-52

This paper presents a methodology to evaluate the seismic reliability of geostructures in an optimal way. Taguchi design of experiments are adopted to find the most efficient and cost-effective combination of material properties in the uncertainty domain. Twelve uniform and mixed design models are tested. A polynomial-based response surface meta-model is built for each one and the accuracy of perdition is examined using 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. A two-dimensional gravity dam is used as a vehicle for probabilistic transient analyses. The ground motion record-to-record variability is added as well using over one hundred earthquake records selected based on probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. Dynamic sensitivity of epistemic random variables are evaluated for the first time. Finally, an efficient and practical procedure is proposed in order to determine the reliability index of the geostructures. This approach, in fact, can be generalised for any type of engineering structures dealing with multi-hazard problems.  相似文献   

红层软岩压缩破坏的分形特征与级联失效过程     

周翠英  梁宁  刘镇 《岩土力学》2019,40(Z1):21-31

基于不同围压条件下的红砂岩三轴压缩试验结果，采用数字图像相关技术对岩样外表面破坏形态进行全程观测，获得不同阶段岩样外表面破坏图像，分别对岩样破坏后阶段的图像进行分析。通过分形盒维数表征岩样外表面裂纹的变化情况，发现岩样破坏越严重，裂纹分形维数越高，且在最后破坏阶段裂纹分形维数出现突变，揭示岩样的破坏特征。引入级联失效数学模型，结合红层软岩内部的矿物成分与细观结构分布特点，概化出其结构的随机连接模型与破坏方式，分析红层软岩加载作用下的内部节点颗粒“容量-荷载”重分配原则以及节点颗粒失效后其初始荷载传递路径。结果表明，红层软岩在受载时为一个级联失效的分阶段破坏过程，级联因子通过级联路径不断传播、增多，级联失效越发明显，同时结合岩石破坏的变形损伤过程与其轴向应力-应变曲线分段特征，揭示该类岩石破坏的级联失效分级标准，为拓展该领域的研究具备一定的参考价值。  相似文献   

A new magnitude category disaggregation approach for temporal high‐resolution rainfall intensities          下载免费PDF全文

Muhammad Rehan Anis  Michael Rode 《水文研究》2015,29(6):1119-1128

Simulation of quick runoff components such as surface runoff and associated soil erosion requires temporal high‐resolution rainfall intensities. However, these data are often not available because such measurements are costly and time consuming. Current rainfall disaggregation methods have shortcomings, especially in generating the distribution of storm events. The objectives of this study were to improve point rainfall disaggregation using a new magnitude category rainfall disaggregation approach. The procedure is introduced using a coupled disaggregation approach (Hyetos and cascade) for multisite rainfall disaggregation. The new procedure was tested with ten long‐term precipitation data sets of central Germany using summer and winter precipitation to determine seasonal variability. Results showed that dividing the rainfall amount into four daily rainfall magnitude categories (1–10, 11–25, 26–50, >50 mm) improves the simulation of high rainfall intensity (convective rainfall). The Hyetos model category approach (Hyetos_Cat) with seasonal variation performs representative to observed hourly rainfall compared with without categories on each month. The mean absolute percentage accuracy of standard deviation for hourly rainfall is 89.7% in winter and 95.6% in summer. The proposed magnitude category method applied with the coupled Hyetos_Cat–cascade approach reproduces successfully the statistical behaviour of local 10‐min rainfall intensities in terms of intermittency as well as variability. The root mean square error performance statistics for disaggregated 10‐min rainfall depth ranges from 0.20 to 2.38 mm for summer and from 0.12 to 2.82 mm for the winter season in all categories. The coupled stochastic approach preserves the statistical self‐similarity and intermittency at each magnitude category with a relatively low computational burden. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献