WRF-Hydro模型与新安江模型在陈河流域的应用对比     

孙明坤  李致家  刘志雨  侯爱中  霍文博  温娅惠  孔祥意  戴金旺  梁世强 《湖泊科学》2020,32(3):850-864

本文利用全球陆面数据同化系统与降雨观测数据,以陕西半湿润区陈河流域为研究对象,驱动WRF-Hydro模型,研究该模型的表现和适用性,并在结构、参数、输入输出和模拟结果方面与新安江模型对比.考虑到次表面层与实际包气带的区别,引入土层厚度乘子ZSOILFAC对前者进行等比缩放,发现其与新安江模型反推包气带的厚度有较好的一致性.研究表明:在陈河流域中WRF-Hydro计算步长须在建议值的基础上缩小; WRF-Hydro模型善于模拟洪水细节,新安江模型表现好且稳定;前者的径流深和洪峰合格率平于或略低于后者;在两个指标均合格的洪水中,前者平均均方根误差比后者小21.5%,但对于其他洪水,前者平均均方根误差比后者大56.2%; WRF-Hydro在洪水起涨时刻模拟较好,表现出其在中小流域应用的潜力.  相似文献   

Perceptual models of uncertainty for socio-hydrological systems: a flood risk change example     

Ida K. Westerberg  Keith J. Beven  Gemma Coxon  Tobias Krueger 《水文科学杂志》2020,65(Z2):1705-1713

ABSTRACT

Characterizing, understanding and better estimating uncertainties are key concerns for drawing robust conclusions when analyzing changing socio-hydrological systems. Here we suggest developing a perceptual model of uncertainty that is complementary to the perceptual model of the socio-hydrological system and we provide an example application to flood risk change analysis. Such a perceptual model aims to make all relevant uncertainty sources – and different perceptions thereof – explicit in a structured way. It is a first step to assessing uncertainty in system outcomes that can help to prioritize research efforts and to structure dialogue and communication about uncertainty in interdisciplinary work.  相似文献   

Forests and floods: Using field evidence to reconcile analysis methods     

James C. Bathurst  Barry Fahey  Andrés Iroumé  Julia Jones 《水文研究》2020,34(15):3295-3310

The extent to which forests, relative to shorter vegetation, mitigate flood peak discharges remains controversial and relatively poorly researched, with only a few significant field studies. Considering the effect purely of change of vegetation cover, peak flow magnitude comparisons for paired catchments have suggested that forests do not mitigate large floods, whereas flood frequency comparisons have shown that forests mitigate frequencies over all magnitudes of flood. This study investigates the apparent inconsistency using field-based evidence from four contrasting field programmes at scales of 0.34–3.1 km². Repeated patterns are identified that provide strong evidence of real effects with physical explanations. Magnitude and frequency comparisons are both relevant to the impact of forests on peak discharges but address different questions. Both can show a convergence of response between forested and grassland/logged states at the highest recorded flows but the associated return periods may be quite variable and are subject to estimation uncertainty. For low to moderate events, the forested catchments have a lower peak magnitude for a given frequency than the grassland/logged catchments. Depending on antecedent soil saturation, a given storm may nevertheless generate peak discharges of the same magnitude for both catchment states but these peaks will have different return periods. The effect purely of change in vegetation cover may be modified by additional forestry interventions, such as road networks and drainage ditches which, by effectively increasing the drainage density, may increase peak flows for all event magnitudes. For all the sites, forest cover substantially reduces annual runoff.  相似文献   

挑坎体型对下游雾化影响的试验研究          下载免费PDF全文

练继建  冉聃颉  何军龄  张紫畅 《水科学进展》2020,31(2):260-269

以解决挑流消能工在泄洪期间为提高消能率而加重下游雾化问题为目标,探究不同体型挑坎的下游雾化特性。通过水力学模型试验,对典型的非对称舌型坎、标准舌型坎、扭面贴坎和连续坎的下游水舌风分布、下游溅水雨强和不同液滴体积分布以及挑流水舌水力特性与冲刷特性进行了研究。研究表明:①各种工况下,非对称舌型坎、标准舌型坎、扭面贴坎的下游水舌风风速均大于连续坎。②对于非对称舌型坎,其溢洪道轴线左侧溅水强度大于右侧,其雨强左右两侧峰值差值最大为5.625 g/(m 2·min);对于扭面贴坎,其溢洪道轴线右侧溅水强度更大,其雨强左右两侧峰值差值最大为45.125 g/(m 2·min)。③随着距离水舌入水点长度增大,大粒径水滴数量和体积占比均剧烈下降;连续坎和舌型坎的挑宽均随着角度的增加而增加;冲坑深度随着角度的减小而增大。④在挑坎合适边墙侧设置扭面贴角能改善下游雾化危害,同时适当增加挑角可以减弱下游冲刷破坏。  相似文献   

Wood retention at inclined racks: Effects on flow and local bedload processes     

Isabella Schalko 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2020,45(9):2036-2047

Large wood (LW) transport can increase greatly during floods, leading to accumulations at river infrastructures. To mitigate the potential flood hazard, racks are a common method to retain LW upstream of endangered settlements or infrastructures. The majority of LW retention racks consist of vertical bars and, therefore, disrupt bedload transport. It can be hypothesized that inclined racks reduce backwater rise and local scour, as wood will block the upper part of the rack, thereby increasing the open flow cross-section below the accumulation. Flume experiments were conducted under clear water conditions to analyse backwater rise and local scour as a function of (1) rack inclination, (2) hydraulic inflow condition, (3) uniform bed material, and (4) LW volume. In addition, the first experiments were performed under live bed scour conditions to study the effect of bedload transport on local scour and backwater rise. Based on the experiments, backwater rise and local scour decrease with decreasing rack angle to the horizontal. LW predominantly accumulated at the upper part of the rack, leading to an open flow cross-section below the accumulation. The effect of rack angle was included in existing design equations for backwater rise and local scour depth. In addition, the first experiments with bedload transport resulted in smaller backwater rise and local scour depth. This study contributes to an enhanced process understanding of wood retention and bedload transport at rack structures and an improved design of LW retention racks. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

An inter‐basin backwater overflow (the Buhai Brook and the Ezer reservoir on the Jijia River,Romania)          下载免费PDF全文

Gheorghe Romanescu  Cristian Stoleriu 《水文研究》2014,28(7):3118-3131

During the last few years, the north‐western part of Romania has been affected by catastrophic floods with most of the watercourses reaching their highest recorded discharges. This study reports the generation of a numerical terrain model and the simulation of a backwater phenomenon at elevation steps according to the volume of water accumulated at the confluence of the Buhai Brook with the Jijia River. The hydrological data are complemented by rainfall data and the careful recording of the flood behaviour during the entire period of its development. The main aim of the study is to identify the causes of the backwater phenomenon and to highlight the material damage inflicted on the town of Dorohoi. At the same time, the study uses cartographic model that was developed to establish which areas are at risk of flooding at various levels of probability. The catastrophic flood began on the Buhai Brook, a slow‐flowing stream that drains the areas to the west of the town of Dorohoi and discharged into the upstream sector of the Jijia confluence. The flood caused two types of backwater waves: one behind the bridges and the houses built on the floodplain and a second that followed the course of the main stem (Jijia) upstream from the confluence, flooding the Ezer Lake, which was created specifically to attenuate such floods. The spillway backwater phenomenon was inter‐basin as it did not occur in a single hydrographic basin. The causes of the catastrophic flash flood and of the inter‐basin backwater overflow are natural but also reflect anthropogenic influence. After the lake filled, the discharge into the Jijia was controlled and the flooding downstream was thus greatly diminished. Though fortuitous, the backwater flooding was important in mitigating the impact of the flood wave from the Jijia River. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

The potential for agricultural land use change to reduce flood risk in a large watershed          下载免费PDF全文

Keith E. Schilling  Philip W. Gassman  Catherine L. Kling  Todd Campbell  Manoj K. Jha  Calvin F. Wolter  Jeffrey G. Arnold 《水文研究》2014,28(8):3314-3325

Effects of agricultural land management practices on surface runoff are evident at local scales, but evidence for watershed‐scale impacts is limited. In this study, we used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool model to assess changes in downstream flood risks under different land uses for the large, intensely agricultural, Raccoon River watershed in Iowa. We first developed a baseline model for flood risk based on current land use and typical weather patterns and then simulated the effects of varying levels of increased perennials on the landscape under the same weather patterns. Results suggest that land use changes in the Raccoon River could reduce the likelihood of flood events, decreasing both the number of flood events and the frequency of severe floods. The duration of flood events were not substantially affected by land use change in our assessment. The greatest flood risk reduction was associated with converting all cropland to perennial vegetation, but we found that converting half of the land to perennial vegetation or extended rotations (and leaving the remaining area in cropland) could also have major effects on reducing downstream flooding potential. We discuss the potential costs of adopting the land use change in the watershed to illustrate the scale of subsidies required to induce large‐scale conversion to perennially based systems needed for flood risk reduction. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

临沂市地质灾害现状及易发程度分区评价          下载免费PDF全文

祝丽媛  窦连波  李莺宇  陈秀娟  王伟德 《山东国土资源》2019,35(11)

2016年,临沂市地质灾害排查共查明了391处地质灾害隐患点,主要类型为崩塌、滑坡、泥石流、采空塌陷和岩溶塌陷,崩塌数量最多,其次为采空塌陷和岩溶塌陷。地质灾害规模以小型为主。该文详细介绍了临沂市地质环境背景条件,各类地质灾害发育现状及分布特征。在此基础上,采用"地质灾害综合危险性指数法"进行地质灾害易发性评价,运用栅格数据处理方法将临沂市划分成1350个面积相等的单元,对影响地质灾害发育的地质条件、地形地貌条件、气候植被条件、地质灾害隐患点、地质灾害规模、分布密度、活动频次和险情等要素进行量化,根据实际情况对地质灾害易发程度分级进行定性修正,将临沂市地质灾害易发程度划分为高易发区、中易发区、低易发区及不易发区4个区。预测了地质灾害发展趋势,划分了地质灾害防治分区,建议完善地质灾害预警预报系统,为临沂市应急管理局的地质灾害应急救援提供地质灾害基础背景资料。  相似文献   

Configurations of community in flood risk management     

Aleksi Räsänen  Vera Kauppinen  Sirkku Juhola  Gunhild Setten  Haakon Lein 《Norsk geografisk tidsskrift. Norwegian journal of geography》2020,74(3):165-180

ABSTRACT

Despite a notable increase in the literature on community resilience, the notion of ‘community’ remains underproblematised. This is evident within flood risk management (FRM) literature, in which the understanding and roles of communities may be acknowledged but seldom discussed in any detail. The purpose of the article is to demonstrate how community networks are configured by different actors, whose roles and responsibilities span spatial scales within the context of FRM. Accordingly, the authors analyse findings from semi-structured interviews, policy documents, and household surveys from two flood prone areas in Finnish Lapland. The analysis reveals that the ways in which authorities, civil society, and informal actors take on multiple roles are intertwined and form different types of networks. By implication, the configuration of community is fuzzy, elusive and situated, and not confined to a fixed spatiality. The authors discuss the implications of the complex nature of community for FRM specifically, and for community resilience more broadly. They conclude that an analysis of different actors across scales contributes to an understanding of the configuration of community, including community resilience, and how the meaning of community takes shape according to the differing aims of FRM in combination with differing geographical settings.  相似文献   

Methodology to set trigger levels in an urban drainage flood warning system – an application to Jhonghe,Taiwan     

Hsiang-Kuan Chang  Jihn-Sung Lai 《水文科学杂志》2018,63(1):31-49

A wireless water-level monitoring system for an urban drainage flood warning is developed, and stations equipped with pressure sensors are installed to monitor water levels. The water levels for flood warning are investigated. Two stages of warning water level for “larger” conduits are set based on the rate of rising water levels. In a similar way, only one stage of the warning water level is set for “smaller” conduits. The average rates of rising water levels for different scenarios are estimated using the US EPA Storm Water Management Model (SWMM). When evaluating the impact of flooding, the outflows from manholes simulated by the SWMM are used as sources for a two-dimensional overland flow simulation. The integrated system is successfully executed in Jhonghe, New Taipei City, Taiwan, which has experienced urban drainage floods. Therefore, this system can provide urban drainage flood warnings to the authorities to take disaster reduction measures.  相似文献