毛乌素沙地东南缘全新世气候不稳定性     

李想  苏志珠  马义娟  张彩霞  柳苗苗 《中国沙漠》2020,40(2):109-117

毛乌素沙地处于中国季风区的西北边缘,对气候变化敏感,是古气候演化和古环境变迁研究的理想场所。全新世气温回暖期,气候整体稳定但存在暖湿冷干的次级波动,不同类型沉积相组成的地层序列记录了全新世千年、百年尺度的气候不稳定性。对毛乌素沙地不同沉积序列的研究表明:(1)毛乌素沙地东南缘的沙漠/黄土边界带DLT、NB剖面粒度及Rb/Sr比值可作为气候变化的代用指标。>63 μm砂含量增加,Rb/Sr比值降低,揭示东亚冬季风增强,风成砂堆积,风沙活动加剧,气候干冷;反之,东亚夏季风增强,降水增多,风化成壤程度加大,气候暖湿。(2)毛乌素沙地东南缘沙漠/黄土边界带及低洼沟谷区年代概率密度函数的分析显示,全新世早期~8\^5 ka BP风成砂堆积,风沙活动加剧,气候表现为干冷;全新世中期8\^5 ka~3\^0 ka BP地势较高处古土壤广泛发育,地势低洼处发育湖沼相/泥炭层,但在6.0 ka BP左右存在气候转冷过程;全新世晚期3\^0 ka BP以来气候波动频繁。(3)毛乌素沙地气候变化与北大西洋冰筏冷事件、董哥洞石笋、季风边缘区湖泊、东部沙地等记录具有可对比性和相对一致性,反映出全新世千年和百年尺度上的气候变化主要受全球变化的影响,这对预测和模拟未来气候变化具有借鉴意义。  相似文献   

重力数据约束的二维地震层析成像在台湾海峡南部的应用     

王笋  闫培  刘善虎 《大地测量与地球动力学》2019,39(3):302-306

地震-重力联合反演可以降低多解性，针对大勘探范围内岩石波速-密度关系存在较大散布的问题，引入交叉梯度结构约束构建统一的目标函数是一种有效的解决方案。利用台湾海峡南部HX-13测线进行验证：由于火成岩侵入体的存在，部分区域难以拾取可靠的地震初至，常规的走时反演无法准确恢复基底面的形态。搜集研究区的船测重力资料，根据地震地质条件和数据特点设置合适的反演参数，实现基于物性和结构双重约束的重力-地震联合反演。由对反演结果的分析和解释可以看出，该方法可在很大程度上弥补地震数据不完备的缺陷，使反演过程稳定，并提高模型的可靠性。  相似文献   

海上风电升压站平台高程确定标准的合理性研究     

潘晓春 《海洋技术学报》2019,38(6):83-88

为保证海上风电升压电站建设的经济合理与安全可靠,合理确定海上风电升压电站平台高程十分必要。文中从波浪与潮位的遭遇组合、最大波高取值与现行相关标准的比较、最大波峰高度计算的合理性等方面,全面分析了确定海上风电升压站平台高程各组成项取值标准的合理性,研究认为现行标准明显偏高。建议海上升压站平台底部高程按"100年一遇极端高水位+重现期50年波列累积频率1%的最大波峰高度+安全超高"确定。结合工程实例计算分析,按本文建议可使海上升压站平台高程明显降低,从而节省工程造价,还可减轻升压站工程对周边风机的遮蔽影响,以达到多发电量的效果。  相似文献   

Surficial fractures in the Navajo sandstone,south-western USA: the roles of thermal cycles,rainstorms, granular disintegration,and iterative cracking     

David B. Loope  Garrison R. Loope  Caroline M. Burberry  Clinton M. Rowe  Gerald C. Bryant 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2020,45(9):2063-2077

Deep (> 5 m) sheeting fractures in the Navajo sandstone are evident at numerous sites in southern Utah and derive from tectonic stresses. Strong diurnal thermal cycles are, however, the likely triggers for shallow (< 0.3 m) sheeting fractures. Data from subsurface thermal sensors reveal that large temperature differences between sensors at 2 and 15 cm depth on clear summer afternoons are as great as those that trigger sheeting fractures in exposed California granite. Extensive polygonal patterns in the Navajo sandstone are composed of surface-perpendicular fractures and were produced by contractile stresses. Numerous studies have shown that porewater diminishes the tensile strength of sandstone. Based on our thermal records, we propose that cooling during monsoonal rainstorms triggers polygonal fracturing of temporarily weakened rock. On steep outcrops, polygonal patterns are rectilinear and orthogonal, with T-vertices. Lower-angle slopes host hexagonal patterns (defined by the dominance of Y-vertices). Intermediate patterns with rectangles and hexagons of similar scale are common. We posit that outcropping fractures are advancing downward by iterative steps, and that hexagons on sandstone surfaces (like prismatic columns of basalt) have evolved from ancestral orthogonal polygons of similar scale. In lava flows, fractures elongate intermittently as they follow a steep thermal gradient (the source of stress) as it rapidly moves through the rock mass. In our model, a steep, surficial thermal gradient descends through unfractured sandstone, but at the slow pace of granular disintegration. Through time, as the friable rock on stable slopes erodes, iterative cracking advances into new space. Hexagonal patterns form as new fractures, imperfectly guided by the older ones, propagate in new directions, and vertices drift into a configuration that minimizes the ratio of fracture length to polygon area. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

基于GPS和水准数据的微粒群算法联合反演祁连山北缘断裂三维滑动速率     

刘杰 《大地测量与地球动力学》2019,39(9):906-909

将微粒群算法与位错理论模型相结合，采用中国地壳运动观测网络提供的青藏高原地区2001~2004年GPS测量数据和2000~2006年水准测量数据，通过常规定权和附有相对权比的方法对祁连山北缘断裂的三维滑动速率进行联合反演，并与蚁群算法反演结果进行对比。结果表明，微粒群算法收敛速度快、稳定性高，结合经典位错理论模型，是一种可以有效求解断层三维滑动速率反演问题的优化算法，在大地测量反演领域极具应用潜力。  相似文献   

A new standardized Palmer drought index for hydro‐meteorological use          下载免费PDF全文

Mingwei Ma  Liliang Ren  Fei Yuan  Shanhu Jiang  Yi Liu  Hao Kong  Luyan Gong 《水文研究》2014,28(23):5645-5661

Accepting the concept of standardization introduced by the standardized precipitation index, similar methodologies have been developed to construct some other standardized drought indices such as the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). In this study, the authors provided deep insight into the SPEI and recognized potential deficiencies/limitations in relating to the climatic water balance it used. By coupling another well‐known Palmer drought severity index (PDSI), we proposed a new standardized Palmer drought index (SPDI) through a moisture departure probabilistic approach, which allows multi‐scalar calculation for accurate temporal and spatial comparison of the hydro‐meteorological conditions of different locations. Using datasets of monthly precipitation, temperature and soil available water capacity, the moisture deficit/surplus was calculated at multiple temporal scales, and a couple of techniques were adopted to adjust corresponding time series to a generalized extreme value distribution out of several candidates. Results of the historical records (1900–2012) for diverse climates by multiple indices showed that the SPDI was highly consistent and correlated with the SPEI and self‐calibrated PDSI at most analysed time scales. Furthermore, a simple experiment of hypothetical temperature and/or precipitation change scenarios also verified the effectiveness of this newly derived SPDI in response to climate change impacts. Being more robust and preferable in spatial consistency and comparability as well as combining the simplicity of calculation with sufficient accounting of the physical nature of water supply and demand relating to droughts, the SPDI is promising to serve as a competent reference and an alternative for drought assessment and monitoring. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Risk Analysis of Breakwater Caisson Under Wave Attack Using Load Surface Approximation     

Dong Hyawn KIM 《中国海洋工程》2014,(6):739-748

A new load surface based approach to the reliability analysis of caisson-type breakwater is proposed. Uncertainties of the horizontal and vertical wave loads acting on breakwater are considered by using the so-called load surfaces, which can be estimated as functions of wave height, water level, and so on. Then, the first-order reliability method（FORM） can be applied to determine the probability of failure under the wave action. In this way, the reliability analysis of breakwaters with uncertainties both in wave height and in water level is possible. Moreover, the uncertainty in wave breaking can be taken into account by considering a random variable for wave height ratio which relates the significant wave height to the maximum wave height. The proposed approach is applied numerically to the reliability analysis of caisson breakwater under wave attack that may undergo partial or full wave breaking.  相似文献   

KK型管节点应力集中系数几何敏感性分析     

林海花  孙承猛  石强 《海洋工程》2020,38(6):142-150

KK型管节点是自升式平台桁架式桩腿中的一种管节点，其应力集中系数是影响桩腿疲劳寿命的重要参数。应力集中系数与管节点的几何形式密切相关，为分析KK型管节点应力集中系数对几何参数的敏感性，利用ANSYS软件对某KK型管节点进行几何参数化建模，利用有限元数值模拟方法对各工况下的热点应力进行分析，并分别计算各相应工况下的名义应力，然后将热点应力与名义应力相比得到不同几何参数下的热点应力集中系数。对计算结果进行整理分析，得到了KK型管节点应力集中系数对无量纲几何参数的敏感性规律。结果表明，应力集中系数与撑杆受力状态、管节点结构形式有关，在满足结构布置、建造工艺和其他安全性指标的前提下，分析结果能够为KK型管节点的结构设计和疲劳分析提供技术支撑。  相似文献   

A sequential sparse polynomial chaos expansion using Bayesian regression for geotechnical reliability estimations     

Qiujing Pan  Xingru Qu  Leilei Liu  Daniel Dias 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2020,44(6):874-889

Polynomial chaos expansions (PCEs) have been widely employed to estimate failure probabilities in geotechnical engineering. However, PCEs suffer from two deficiencies: (a) PCE coefficients are solved by the least-square minimization method which easily causes overfitting issues; (b) building a high order PCE is often computationally expensive. In order to overcome the aforementioned drawbacks, the Bayesian regression technique is employed to evaluate PCE coefficients, which not only provides a sparse solution but also avoids overfitting. With the aid of the predictive means and variances given by Bayesian analysis, a learning function is proposed to sequentially select the most informative samples that are critical to build a PCE. This sequential learning scheme can highly enhance the computational efficiency of PCEs. Besides, importance sampling (IS) is incorporated into the sequential learning (SL)-PCEs to deal with geotechnical problems with small failure probabilities. The proposed method of SL-PCE-IS is applied to three illustrative examples, which shows that the improved PCE method is more effective and efficient than the common PCEs method, leading to accurate estimations of small failure probabilities using fewer training samples.  相似文献   

特定场地下土工构筑物的几何可靠性分析     

吴兴征  王瑞凯  辛军霞 《岩土力学》2020,41(6):2070-2080

针对特定场地下土工构筑物的正常使用极限状态，采用近年发展的几何可靠性方法计算了多种构筑物的可靠度指标。考虑同一场地下的钻孔灌注桩、抗浮锚杆和CFG桩单桩加载变形测试曲线的离散性，各曲线回归参数呈现差异并可作为随机变量，进而探讨了各曲线回归参数间的相关性及联合分布特性。基于这些回归参数的联合发散概率密度等值线，即随机变量刚好达到极限承载能力状态，该几何可靠性算法可在随机变量的原始空间求得土工构筑物的可靠度指标。通过比对该几何可靠度指标与常规的一次可靠性算法成果，验证了该几何可靠性计算技术的可行性。计算表明，几何可靠性评价模型实施简便，易于被工程技术人员接受。  相似文献