Taguchi design-based seismic reliability analysis of geostructures     

M. A. Hariri-Ardebili  P. Boodagh 《Georisk: Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards》2019,13(1):34-52

This paper presents a methodology to evaluate the seismic reliability of geostructures in an optimal way. Taguchi design of experiments are adopted to find the most efficient and cost-effective combination of material properties in the uncertainty domain. Twelve uniform and mixed design models are tested. A polynomial-based response surface meta-model is built for each one and the accuracy of perdition is examined using 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. A two-dimensional gravity dam is used as a vehicle for probabilistic transient analyses. The ground motion record-to-record variability is added as well using over one hundred earthquake records selected based on probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. Dynamic sensitivity of epistemic random variables are evaluated for the first time. Finally, an efficient and practical procedure is proposed in order to determine the reliability index of the geostructures. This approach, in fact, can be generalised for any type of engineering structures dealing with multi-hazard problems.  相似文献   

Quantifying the variability and allocation patterns of aboveground carbon stocks across plantation forest types,structural attributes and age in sub-tropical coastal region of KwaZulu Natal,South Africa using remote sensing     

《Applied geography (Sevenoaks, England)》2015

Quantifying the variability and allocation patterns of aboveground carbon stocks across plantation forests is central in deriving accurate and reliable knowledge and understanding of the extent to which these species contribute to the global carbon cycle and towards minimizing climate change effects. The principal objective of this study was to quantify the variability and allocation patterns of aboveground carbon stocks across Pinus and Eucalyptus plantation forests, tree-structural attributes (i.e. stems, barks, branches and leaves) and age groups, using models developed based on remotely sensed data. The results of this study demonstrate that aboveground carbon stocks significantly (α = 0.05) vary across different plantation forest species types, structural attributes and age. Pinus taeda and Eucalyptus grandis species contained aboveground carbon stocks above 110 t C ha⁻¹, and Eucalyptus dunii had 20 t C ha⁻¹. Across plantation forest tree structural attributes, stems contained the highest aboveground carbon stocks, when compared to barks, branches and leaves. Aboveground carbon stock estimates also varied significantly (α = 0.05) with stand age. Mature plantation forest species (i.e. between 7 and 20 years) contained the highest aboveground carbon stock estimates of approximately 120 t C ha⁻¹, when compared to younger species (i.e. between 3 and 6 years), which had approximately 20 t C ha⁻¹. The map of aboveground carbon stocks showed distinct spatial patterns across the entire study area. The findings of this study are important for understanding the contribution of different plantation forest species, structural attributes and age in the global carbon cycle and possible climate change moderation measures. Also, this study demonstrates that data on vital tree structural attributes, previously difficult to obtain, can now be easily derived from cheap and readily-available satellite data for inventorying carbon stocks variability.  相似文献   

Depositional system and palaeoclimatic interpretations of Middle to Late Pleistocene travertines: Kocabaş, Denizli,south‐west Turkey          下载免费PDF全文

Ezher Toker  Mine Sezgül Kayseri‐Özer  Mehmet Özkul  Sándor Kele 《Sedimentology》2015,62(5):1360-1383

Travertine deposits in western Turkey are very well‐exposed in the area of Kocaba?, in the eastern part of the Denizli Basin. The palaeoclimatic significance of these travertines is discussed using U/Th dates, stable isotope data and palynological evidence. The Kocaba? travertine occurrences are characterized by successions of depositional terraces associated with palaeosols and karstic features. The travertines have been classified into eight lithotypes and one erosional horizon, namely: laminated, coated bubble, reed, paper‐thin raft, intraclasts, micritic travertine with gastropods, extra‐formational pebbles and a palaeosol layer. The analysed travertines mostly formed between 181 ka and 80 ka (Middle to Late Pleistocene) during a series of climatic changes including glacial and interglacial intervals; their δ¹³C and δ¹⁸O values indicate that the depositional waters were mainly of basinal thermal origin, occasionally mixed with surficial meteoric water. Palynological results obtained from the palaeosols showed an abundance of non‐arboreal percentage and xerophytic plants (Oleaceae and Quercus evergreen type) indicating that a drought occurred. Marine Isotope Stage 6 is represented by grassland species but Marine Isotope Stage 5 is represented by Pinaceae–Pinus and Abies, Quercus and Oleaceae. Uranium/thorium analyses of the Kocaba? travertines show that deposition began in Marine Isotope Stage 6 (glacial) and continued to Marine Isotope Stage 4 (glacial), but mostly occurred in Marine Isotope Stage 5 (interglacial). The travertine deposition continued to ca 80 ka in the south‐west of the study area, in one particular depression depositional system. Palaeoenvironmental indicators suggest that the travertine depositional evolution was probably controlled by fault‐related movements that influenced groundwater flow. Good correlation of the stable isotope values and dates of deposition of the travertines and palynological data of palaeosols in the Kocaba? travertines serve as a starting point for further palaeoclimate studies in south‐west Turkey. Additionally, the study can be compared with other regional palaeoclimate archives.  相似文献   

不同坡度缓冲带滞缓径流及污染物去除定量化   总被引：8，自引：0，他引：8       下载免费PDF全文

吴建强 《水科学进展》2011,22(1):112-117

利用构建的东风港缓冲带现场试验基地和设计的径流流量测定装置,模拟上海地区农业面源污染物浓度和典型单次降雨历时及降雨量,对不同坡度缓冲带滞缓径流和农田氮磷污染物去除能力开展定量化试验研究。结果表明:相同植被缓冲带,坡度越小,其滞缓径流和土壤水力渗透的能力越强,19 m长的2%坡度缓冲带径流初始出水时间比5%坡度缓冲带延长了7.3 min,两者的渗流水量比值达到1.74;不同坡度缓冲带渗流氮磷污染物去除量显著高于径流,2%、3%、4%和5%坡度缓冲带对于氮磷污染物的渗流去除量与径流去除量的比值分别为2.32、2.15、1.82和1.64;坡度的变化对缓冲带净化面源氮磷污染物效果的影响显著,坡度越小,缓冲带渗流水量越大,其氮磷污染物的总去除率和单位面积去除负荷也越高,2%坡度缓冲带对氮磷污染的总去除率和单位面积污染去除负荷分别是5%坡度的1.56倍和1.66倍,2%坡度缓冲带对TN、NH₃--N、TP的单位面积去除负荷均最高,分别达到0.661 g/m2、0.672 g/m2和0.044 g/m2。  相似文献   

大尺度水循环模拟系统不确定性研究进展(英文)   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

宋晓猛  占车生  孔凡哲  夏军 《地理学报(英文版)》2011,21(5):801-819

The regional hydrological system is extremely complex because it is affected not only by physical factors but also by human dimensions.And the hydrological models play a very important role in simulating the complex system.However,there have not been effective methods for the model reliability and uncertainty analysis due to its complexity and difficulty.The uncertainties in hydrological modeling come from four important aspects:uncertainties in input data and parameters,uncertainties in model structure,uncertainties in analysis method and the initial and boundary conditions.This paper systematically reviewed the recent advances in the study of the uncertainty analysis approaches in the large-scale complex hydrological model on the basis of uncertainty sources.Also,the shortcomings and insufficiencies in the uncertainty analysis for complex hydrological models are pointed out.And then a new uncertainty quantification platform PSUADE and its uncertainty quantification methods were introduced,which will be a powerful tool and platform for uncertainty analysis of large-scale complex hydrological models.Finally,some future perspectives on uncertainty quantification are put forward.  相似文献   

Digital quantification of the miospore coloration to assess the thermal maturity: Novel RGB-based measuring technique     

《Marine and Petroleum Geology》2015

The post depositional thermal maturity and its related chemical changes induce the sporomorphs color alteration, which is a common useful tool in the optical microscopy of the organic matters (OM) and their pre-geochemical studies. The present contribution uses the modern available opportunity of digital technology to achieve a quantifying system technique, which includes color measurements and their possible graphic presentation. The normal digital images of sporomorphs from several ages and geological settings are used to obtain color measurements in the form of digital Red, Green and Blue triple color system (RGB). These measurements were accomplished using some software programs such as Photoshop™^© or ImageJ with employing average microscope setup. The triple RGB color readings are plotted on a ternary diagram, which is divided into three fields. These fields express the maturity levels. The presented new RGB-based quantifying technique is economic and provides a simple examination for maturity, which is linked to the hydrocarbon generation. This can partially replace or walk side by side with the vitrinite reflectance microscopy.  相似文献   

地表组合粗糙度不确定性引起的SAR反演土壤水分的不确定性分析     

陈鲁皖  韩玲  王文娟  秦小宝 《地球信息科学学报》2018,20(1):108-118

地表粗糙度的不确定性是引起SAR土壤水分反演结果不确定性的主要因素,现有研究大多着重于研究单个粗糙度参数（主要是相关长度）的不确定性,直接研究地表组合粗糙度不确定性的较少。本文使用偏度、峰度和四分位距3个指标来量化不确定性,通过在组合粗糙度中加入不同量级高斯噪声进行随机扰动的方法,研究组合粗糙度不确定性在反演过程中的传递,并对反演土壤水分的不确定性进行定量分析。进一步研究反演土壤水分的均方根误差对组合粗糙度不同比例误差范围的响应特征,得到满足反演精度要求的组合粗糙度误差控制范围。样区的实验分析结果表明：组合粗糙度高斯噪声标准差在0-0.045之间时,峰度取值从-0.1984到1.2501,偏度取值从0.0191到0.6791,四分位距取值从0.0018到0.0167,3个量化指标都随组合粗糙度高斯噪声量级的增大而增大,土壤水分反演值有集中在众数附近的趋势,土壤水分低估倾向比高估倾向更明显;本文提出的组合粗糙度误差控制范围可满足反演精度要求,误差控制范围与入射角负相关。  相似文献   

采用支持向量回归从测井曲线定量计算油页岩含油率     

陈敬武  朱建伟  孙平昌 《地质与资源》2017,26(2):157

获取油页岩含油率是油页岩资源评价的重要步骤,传统从测井曲线计算油页岩含油率多采用回归模型,但存在误差大或过拟合的局限性和弱点.本文尝试结合大数据概念的数据挖掘算法和测井应用知识进行油页岩含油率定量计算,提高含油率计算的精度以及模型的泛化性.利用改进的ΔlogR技术获得DT_s、DEN_s、GR_s作为解释变量.采用数据挖掘算法——支持向量回归进行定量计算油页岩含油率能够大幅提高泛化性和精度,获得模型训练样本R~2得分为0.82,测试样本R~2得分可达0.70,拟合精度较高.支持向量回归模型比传统回归模型泛化能力更强,能够避免过拟合问题,具有广泛的应用性.  相似文献   

Geophysical flows under location uncertainty,Part II Quasi-geostrophy and efficient ensemble spreading     

V. Resseguier  E. Mémin  B. Chapron 《地球物理与天体物理流体动力学》2017,111(3):177-208

Models under location uncertainty are derived assuming that a component of the velocity is uncorrelated in time. The material derivative is accordingly modified to include an advection correction, inhomogeneous and anisotropic diffusion terms and a multiplicative noise contribution. In this paper, simplified geophysical dynamics are derived from a Boussinesq model under location uncertainty. Invoking usual scaling approximations and a moderate influence of the subgrid terms, stochastic formulations are obtained for the stratified Quasi-Geostrophy and the Surface Quasi-Geostrophy models. Based on numerical simulations, benefits of the proposed stochastic formalism are demonstrated. A single realization of models under location uncertainty can restore small-scale structures. An ensemble of realizations further helps to assess model error prediction and outperforms perturbed deterministic models by one order of magnitude. Such a high uncertainty quantification skill is of primary interests for assimilation ensemble methods. MATLAB^® code examples are available online.  相似文献   

Human occupation of the northern Arabian interior during early Marine Isotope Stage 3          下载免费PDF全文

Richard P. Jennings  Ash Parton  Laine Clark‐Balzan  Tom S. White  Huw S. Groucutt  Paul S. Breeze  Adrian G. Parker  Nick A. Drake  Michael D. Petraglia 《第四纪科学杂志》2016,31(8):953-966

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