延庆-张家口地区复杂地形冬季山谷风特征分析   总被引：8，自引：4，他引：4       下载免费PDF全文

贾春晖  窦晶晶  苗世光  王迎春 《气象学报》2019,77(3):475-488

基于2016年12月—2017年2月和2017年12月—2018年2月两年冬季的近地面自动气象站逐时观测数据以及张家口探空数据分析延庆-张家口一带（包括张家口崇礼、赤城、海坨、小五台山区,延怀、怀涿、洋河、蔚县盆地以及北京延庆、昌平、怀柔部分平原地区）复杂地形的风场精细化时、空分布特征,揭示不同复杂地形下局地风场的时、空变化规律,加深对复杂地形动力、热力作用对近地面风场影响的认识,为冬季山区风场预报以及复杂地形数值模式改进提供参考。结果表明:晴朗小风天风持续性作为矢量平均风速和标量平均风速的比值,可以作为研究风场变化规律的重要参数。根据风持续性的日变化特征,可以将研究区域内所有站点分为10种类型,分别代表不同局地地形特征的影响,风持续与风向变化的相关也很强。研究区域主要有3种类型的地形风:斜坡风、峡谷风以及较大尺度的山区平原风。不同地形特征下的风场、风持续性存在明显不同的日变化特征,山风和谷风相互转化的时间也不同,山区最早,盆地次之,平原区最晚;山风时段持续时间较谷风时段长,风速小;晴朗小风天实测风反映了实际风场的特征,而排除环境背景风场,弱化地形动力作用后整个冬季的局地风作为理论山谷风,更能反映热力作用下的山谷风特征。   相似文献   

低温雨雪过程的粒子群-神经网络预报模型   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3       下载免费PDF全文

陆虹  翟盘茂  覃卫坚  金龙  谢敏  钱晰  赵华生 《应用气象学报》2015,26(5):513-524

利用逐日气温和降水量数据、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料以及预报场资料,通过分析提取我国南方区域持续性低温雨雪过程及其预报因子,使用粒子群-神经网络方法建立非线性的统计集合预报模型 (PSONN-EPM),对我国南方区域持续性低温雨雪过程进行预报试验。结果表明:以过程的冷湿程度及影响范围为标准,将低温雨雪过程分为一般过程和严重过程,并建立不同的预报模型效果较好。通过10 d独立样本预报试验看,基于粒子群-神经网络方法建立的集合预报模型比基于逐步回归方法建立的预报模型的预报平均相对误差小,对严重过程预报能力高于对一般过程预报,且这种非线性统计集合建模方法在建模过程中不需要调整神经网络参数,在实际预报业务中值得尝试。  相似文献   

1950s以来鄱阳湖流域降水变化趋势及其持续性特征     

霍雨  王腊春  陈晓玲  蒙海花 《湖泊科学》2011,23(3):454-462

以鄱阳湖流域1950s至2005年10个台站的日降水量为基础,采用距平分析、Mann-Kendall非参数检验对鄱阳湖流域1950s以来的年、季降水特征和变化趋势进行分析,并以此为基础,结合Hurat指数,从3年、5年、10年三个时间尺度上分析该流域未来降水的变化趋势.结果表明,鄱阳湖流域年内降水分配不均,年际变化较为...  相似文献   

海浪日最大波高序列的一种标度性质   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

尉华  沈正 《海洋湖沼通报》1994,(4):1-8

应用重标度分析方法研究小麦岛海洋观测站１９６１－１９８０年二十年海浪日最大波高序列时发现，该序列并不是相互独立的，而是具有记忆性和持久性，详细的论证表明分式布朗运动模型是描述海浪日最大波高序列的一个较好的模型，同时，应用分式布朗运动模型我们找到了存在于海浪日最大波高序列中的一种标度性质－累积离差（ｔ）的统计自仿射性。  相似文献   

Analytical formulas for the geometric and inertia quantities of the largest removable blocks around tunnels     

Fulvio Tonon 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2007,31(11):1301-1327

This paper presents algorithms for determining the vertices of the maximum removable block (MB) created by a joint pyramid (JP) around a tunnel when discontinuities are fully persistent. It is shown that an MB cannot be formed by more than 4 discontinuities and this drastically limits the proliferation of rock blocks that need to be analysed. The non‐convex block obtained after the MB is tunnelled through (real maximum block, RMB) is partitioned into a set of tetrahedra, and procedures are given for determining the vertices of these tetrahedra. Geometric and inertia quantities needed for stability analysis and support/reinforcement design are determined as functions of the calculated vertices' co‐ordinates. These quantities are: RMB's volume, face areas, perimeter of the excavated surface, centroid and inertia tensor. The algorithms for their calculation are at least two times faster than other algorithms previously proposed in other applications. It is shown that the formulations presented by Goodman and Shi for translational analysis and by Tonon for rotatability analysis can be used to analyse the RMBs using the geometric quantities presented. A numerical example is presented among those used to verify these analytical procedures and their implementation. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

历史地理视角下丝绸之路空间格局及影响研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

林小标  李娜  陆玉麒  周颖  李玉良 《地理研究》2022,41(11):3069-3087

已有的“一带一路”相关研究已逐步引起了学界对历史文化资源于今日发展影响的关注,然而作为“一带一路”倡议的历史依托和出发点,丝绸之路相关量化研究仍处于起步阶段。从文明的角度来说,如何认识丝绸之路是当代中国理解全球的关键。运用OLS、Logistic回归等手段,定量探讨了丝绸之路路线的形成动因以及其对历史及当代的影响。结果表明：① 丝绸之路道路密度分布总体处于波动状态,在以罗马、长安、大都为代表的交通网络起始点以及撒马尔罕、塔什干为代表的内线重要中转枢纽处密度数值大幅提高。② 作为商业贸易通道,丝绸之路路线选择影响最大的因素是地理因子,主要倾向于低坡度、高起伏度的地区,这一点在中亚复杂山地地形中表现得尤为明显。③ 丝绸之路的开辟与通畅,对当时社会经济、城市发展起到了显著的作用。丝绸之路道路密度同距最近海岸距离、纬度、历史文明指数等指标一道构成了古代城市分布的主要影响因素。④ 丝绸之路对区域经济发展的正面影响具有一定的持续性,其对今日经济的发展仍起着难以否认的支撑作用。丝绸之路道路密度每增加1%,所在区域夜间灯光指数增加0.373。本文通过横跨历史学、地理学、经济学的探索能够很好地提供差异化理论视角和技术手段助益,为相关研究的开展起到一定的参考与启发作用,同时也为“一带一路”相关理论的完善提供理论支撑与历史证明。  相似文献   

Seasonality and duration in extreme value distributions of significant wave height     

Fernando J. Mndez  Melisa Menndez  Alberto Luceo  Raúl Medina  Nicholas E. Graham 《Ocean Engineering》2008,35(1):131-138

This paper presents a statistical model to characterize the long-term extreme value distribution of significant wave height, conditioning to the duration of the storm and accounting for seasonality. A time-dependent version of the peak over threshold (POT) approach is used to build the model, which is then applied to specific reanalysis time series and NOAA buoy records. The model considers the annual and semiannual cycles which are parameterized in terms of harmonic functions. The inclusion of seasonal variabilities substantially reduces the residuals of the fitted model. The information obtained in this study can be useful to design maritime works, because (a) the model improves the understanding of the variability of extreme wave climate along a year and (b) the model accounts for the duration of the storm, which is a key parameter in several formulations for rubble mound breakwater design.  相似文献   

基于持久化的网吧管理系统数据库设计和实现     

徐多勇  李志蜀 《成都信息工程学院学报》2008,23(3):239-243

设计了一种健壮持久层体系结构,并运用该结构,根据对象/关系数据库映射（O/R Mapping）策略,设计和实现了基于持久化的网吧管理系统数据库。这种实现数据持久化的方案在C＋＋开发环境下,具有比较重要的应用价值。  相似文献   

A bimodal four‐parameter lognormal linear model of soil water repellency persistence     

C. M. Regalado  A. Ritter 《水文研究》2009,23(6):881-892

Soil water repellency may be characterized in terms of the delayed infiltration time of a water droplet resting on the soil surface, which is, water drop penetration time (WDPT), or repellency persistence. Such repellency persistence varies nonlinearly with soil water content (θ_g), although no models have been proposed to reproduce the variation of WDPT with θ_g in soils. Dynamic factor analysis (DFA) is used to identify two common patterns of unexplained variability in a scattered dataset of WDPT versus θ_g measurements. A four‐parameter lognormal distribution was fitted to both common patterns obtained by DFA, and these were combined additively in a weighted multiple linear bimodal model. We show how such an empirical model is capable of reproducing a large variety of WDPT versus θ_g curve shapes (N = 80) both within a wide range of measured WDPTs (0–17 000 s) and for samples with organic matter content ranging from 21·7 to 80·6 g (100 g)^?1. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

The persistence and character of stranded oil on coarse-sediment beaches   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Owens EH  Taylor E  Humphrey B 《Marine pollution bulletin》2008,56(1):14-26

Small amounts of oil that can persist for decades in the intertidal zone of coarse-sediment beaches have been documented in a few well-studied cases. Oil that survives attenuation over the short-term (weeks to months) will persist until there is a change in the environmental conditions, as might occur where there is a seasonal storm-wave climate or as a beach undergoes long-term (erosional) changes. Oil residues can persist on the beach surface as tar mats, asphalt-like pavements, or as veneers on sediment particles or hard surfaces. Subsurface oil residues can persist in similar forms or as fill or partial fill of the pore spaces between coarse-sediment particles. Oil penetrates until it reaches fine-grained sediment, the water table, bedrock, or other penetration-limiting layers. Amounts of persistent oil are very small fractions of the volumes that were originally stranded and these protected residues can continue to biodegrade as they become thinner and more discontinuous.  相似文献