Uncertainty and sensitivity in a bank stability model: implications for estimating phosphorus loading          下载免费PDF全文

Roderick W. Lammers  Brian P. Bledsoe  Eddy J. Langendoen 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2017,42(4):612-623

Eutrophication of aquatic ecosystems is one of the most pressing water quality concerns in the United States and around the world. Bank erosion has been largely overlooked as a source of nutrient loading, despite field studies demonstrating that this source can account for the majority of the total phosphorus load in a watershed. Substantial effort has been made to develop mechanistic models to predict bank erosion and instability in stream systems; however, these models do not account for inherent natural variability in input values. To quantify the impacts of this omission, uncertainty and sensitivity analyses were performed on the Bank Stability and Toe Erosion Model (BSTEM), a mechanistic model developed by the US Department of Agriculture – Agricultural Research Service (USDA‐ARS) that simulates both mass wasting and fluvial erosion of streambanks. Generally, bank height, soil cohesion, and plant species were found to be most influential in determining stability of clay (cohesive) banks. In addition to these three inputs, groundwater elevation, stream stage, and bank angle were also identified as important in sand (non‐cohesive) banks. Slope and bank height are the dominant variables in fluvial erosion modeling, while erodibility and critical shear stress had low sensitivity indices; however, these indices do not reflect the importance of critical shear stress in determining the timing of erosion events. These results identify important variables that should be the focus of data collection efforts while also indicating which less influential variables may be set to assumed values. In addition, a probabilistic Monte‐Carlo modeling approach was applied to data from a watershed‐scale sediment and phosphorus loading study on the Missisquoi River, Vermont to quantify uncertainty associated with these published results. While our estimates aligned well with previous deterministic modeling results, the uncertainty associated with these predictions suggests that they should be considered order of magnitude estimates only. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

花鸟山外海域几种形态磷在柱状沉积物中的分布及环境意义   总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7  

周怀阳  郑丽波  王怀照 《海洋学研究》2000,18(4):9-13

综合运用 SEDEX化学法、ASPILA化学法和 XRF仪器分析法 ,对在东海赤潮多发区花鸟山外海域采集的柱状沉积物进行了总磷及其不同形态磷含量的系统分析。研究表明 ,总磷及其不同形态磷在沉积柱垂向上的分布有一定的变化规律。在采样深度范围内 ,总磷 (TP)、有机磷 (OP)和铁结合态磷 (Fe - P)的含量自下而上增高 ,而吸附态磷 (Ad - P)、自生钙结合态磷 (Ca- P)与碎屑态磷 (De- P)的含量向上递减。样品柱具有较均匀的粒度及矿物、化学组成 ,基本可以排除沉积物质来源和沉积环境变化对沉积物中磷含量的影响 ,而且也不能仅仅用早期成岩作用来解释磷的上述行为。不同形态磷在柱状沉积物中的分布规律 ,在一定程度上反映了近年来陆源区环境污染加剧的趋势。  相似文献   

Sediment Phosphorus Chemistry and Microbial Biomass along a Lowland New Zealand Stream   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

R. W. McDowell 《Aquatic Geochemistry》2003,9(1):19-40

An evaluation of the distribution of P concentrations in streamflow, P fractions andthe microbial biomass P pool was made of bed and bank sediments along a lowlandstream in New Zealand. Agricultural intensification increased downstream. However,most P fractions decreased downstream (total P decreased from c. 400 to 250 mg kg^-1) in bed sediments, while P in streamflow remained relatively constant (generally < 0.005 mg l^-1) and sediment microbial P increased from 2 to 8 mg kg^-1. An investigation of P release from dried and rewetted sediments showed that solution P (CaCl2-P) increased, on average > 300%, and proportional to the size of the microbial biomass P pool before drying, except in sediments with much organic carbon (OC). When supplied with a P source (1 mg l^-1) and then simultaneously with a C source (glucose, 100 mg l^-1), all sediment behaved similarly and biotic sorption accounted for, on average, 27 and 34% of the total sediment uptake, respectively (maximum of 58%). The quantity of P taken up was related to the initial size of the microbial biomass P pool, and the availability of P as influenced by organic P complexes and OC. The sediment microbial biomass represents a transient, but small store of P could be useful to indicate bioavailable P inputs.  相似文献   

9810号台风期间厦门近岸海域磷的分布特征   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

吴国琳  杨逸萍 《台湾海峡》2001,20(1):84-90

于1998年10号台风期间及台风解除后一周内，对九龙江口和西海域表层水中总磷（TP）、溶解态无机磷（DIP）、溶解态有机磷（DOP）、颗粒态磷（PP）、颗粒态无机磷（PIP）和颗粒态有机磷（POP）进行了为期9d（10月26日至11月3日）的现场观测。根据观测结果，讨论了台风对上述各形态磷的分布特征的影响，认为台风伴随的增水、入海径流量的骤增和底质再悬浮的加剧导致表层水体中各形态磷含量的短期增加。  相似文献   

哑铃湾网箱养殖水体中氮磷结构特征   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

贾后磊  温琰茂 《海洋通报》2005,24(2):87-91

根据2002年4月-2003年1月对哑铃湾网箱养殖的调查数据，分析了养殖水体中不同形态N／P值的分布趋势、季节变化及哑铃湾网箱养殖水体中的限制性营养盐。结果表明：各形态N／P具有显著的季节变化，其分布趋势基本表现为网箱养殖区低于非养殖区，并且随着养殖年限的增加，这种现象更明显。总体上说，哑铃湾浮游植物生长主要受P的限制，但从无机态N／P来看，春、夏季以P为该海域浮游植物生长的控制因子：秋、冬季以N为该海湾浮游植物生长的控制因子。  相似文献   

磷对金刚石增强型硬质合金复合齿性能的影响     

刘晓阳  史晓亮  段隆臣  汤凤林 《煤田地质与勘探》2004,32(4):62-64

在金刚石增强型硬质合金复合齿基体中添加不同量红磷，可降低复合齿烧结温度，实现低温活化烧结。研究表明：添加0．3％(ωB)P的复合齿基体性能最好，采用化学镀Ni-P合金添加P和球磨添加0．1％P的方式，复合齿超硬部分的磨耗比和复合齿的抗冲击功优于单纯通过球磨添加0．3％P的超硬复合齿。为了实现金刚石增强型硬质合金复合齿的低温活化烧结，磷元素最优的添加方式是化学镀结合球磨的添加方式。  相似文献   

大型海藻孔石莼抑制浮游微藻生长的原因初探--种群密度及磷浓度的作用   总被引：8，自引：0，他引：8  

南春容  董双林 《中国海洋大学学报(自然科学版)》2004,34(1):48-54

本文以磷浓度和种群密度为变量 ,以亚心形扁藻为浮游微藻代表 ,采用实验生态学手段研究了大型海藻孔石莼与浮游微藻 (亚心形扁藻 )间的竞争。结果显示 ,不论营养盐浓度如何 ,高密度的孔石莼皆能显著抑制浮游微藻的生长。分析显示 ,高密度的孔石莼压制浮游微藻生长的原因 ,不是由于对氮、磷等营养盐的竞争所致 ,而可能是其他原因所致。  相似文献   

南沙群岛海域表层沉积物中磷的形态分布特征   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

王汉奎  黄良民  陈国华 《热带海洋学报》2005,24(3):31-37

根据2002年56月南沙群岛海域调查时采集的表层沉积物样品，分析了磷的含量并把磷分为总磷(PT)、无机磷(PIN)、有机磷(POR)、非磷灰石结合态磷(PNAI)、磷灰石结合态磷(PAI)5种赋存形态。利用EPM-810Q电子探针测试沉积物的化学成分，讨论了沉积物中磷的形态和分布以及沉积物的地球化学特征与环境的意义。结果表明，调查海区表层沉积物中磷灰石结合态磷与无机磷的含量变化主要受控于生物活动，它们具有同源关系，同属可被生物利用而再次进人生物地球化学循环的磷。沉积物中的总磷和有机磷与FeO显著相关。沉积物中磷灰石结合态磷与CaO显著相关，它的来源和输入方式受控于水体中碎屑颗粒沉积作用的影响。  相似文献   

GEOCHEMICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF PHOSPHORUS NEAR THE HUANGHE RIVER ESTUARY   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

李悦  余季金 《中国海洋湖沼学报》1999,17(4):359-365

INTRODUCTIONPhosphorus (P)isanimportantlimitingelementinglobaloceanicproductivity (Holland ,1 978) ,soknowledgeofPisakeytobetterunderstandingofthecyclingofcarbon ,nitrogen,sulfur,andothernu trientelements.Inasimplemassbalancemodel,thelevelofdissolvedPintheoceanisafunctionoftherateofinputviarivers,andtherateofoutputviadepositioninsediments.Inthepresentstudy,thefocusisontheriverinePinputbytheHuangheRiver (YellowRiver)totheBohaiSea,andespeciallyontheamountofPsolubilizedfromsolidphasesupo…  相似文献   

Vertical variation of phosphorus forms in surface sediments from Wuli Bay, Taihu Lake, China   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

李军  刘丛强  王仕禄  朱兆洲  周志华  肖化云 《中国地球化学学报》2006,25(3):279-284

1IntroductionPhosphorus,an essential nutrient for the primaryproductivity in freshwater systems,is an important fac-tor controlling lacustrine eutrophication.Although ex-ternal input of phosphorus has been assumed as the vi-tal responsibility for the eutrophication of lakes(ZhuJun et al.,2005),the remobilization of phosphorus insediments has a distinct influence on it as well(Bostr m et al.,1982).The concentrations of totalphosphorus(Ptotal)in the sediments are often related tothe trophic st…  相似文献