城市内涝灾害受灾人口评估方法与实证研究：以哈尔滨市道里区为例     

陈鹏  赵洪阳  张继权  张硕  鲍建华  刘晓静 《地理科学》2020,40(1):158-164

城市内涝灾害频发,对居民生命安全造成严重威胁,为提高城市内涝灾害受灾人口评估精度,提出一种更为精确的受灾人口评估方法。以哈尔滨市道里区为研究区,以城市内涝灾害受灾人口为研究对象,运用一、二维非恒定流为主控方程,构建城市内涝数值模拟模型,并结合受灾人口分布特点,综合构建基于土地利用的人口随时间变化的计算模型。实现在模拟内涝灾害影响范围基础上,利用受灾人口计算模型提取白天与夜晚受灾人口分布情况。结果表明：研究区在百年一遇降雨情景下,有25条街道会发生不同程度积水,积水深度范围值为0.10~1.42 m;此级别内涝灾害在白天11条街道受灾人口数量最大值达到3 500人,夜晚10条街道受灾人口数量最大值为720人。  相似文献   

新冠肺炎疫情扩散与人口流动的空间关系及对中国城市公共卫生分类治理启示     

向云波  王圣云 《热带地理》2020,40(3):408-421

人口流动影响新冠肺炎疫情传播与风险扩散。基于百度迁徙大数据和各省市区卫生健康委员会数据，结合地理信息技术，研究了2020年1月1日至3月5日136个城市新冠肺炎疫情扩散与武汉市人口流出的空间关系及其对我国城市公共卫生治理启示。研究表明：1）中国新冠肺炎疫情扩散过程具有阶段性特征，经历了疫情发生与隐性扩散、快速扩散与暴发、扩散遏制和扩散衰减4个阶段。2）研究时间段武汉市人口主要流向湖北省境内以及周边省市和北京、上海、广州、深圳等一线城市，具有地理邻近性和倾向区域中心城市的人口流入特征。受地理距离、时间成本、社会经济联系、境外输入等因素的影响，新冠肺炎疫情空间分布的不平衡性明显，长江中游城市群、京津冀城市群、长三角城市群、粤港澳大湾区和成渝城市群成为新冠肺炎疫情集中分布的重点区域，一些重点出入境口岸城市的新冠疫情扩散风险较大。3）新冠肺炎疫情扩散与人口流出之间具有较强的正向等级相关性。两者之间的空间关系可以分为8种调控类型，近90%的城市具有人口流入多、确诊病例数高或人口流入少、确诊病例数低的特征。其中，人口流入多、确诊病例数高的城市主要集中分布在湖北省境内以及中国重点城市群的中心城市，其防控压力来自人口流入多、确诊病例数高带来的疫情扩散风险；而人口流入少、确诊病例数低的城市分布较为分散，其防控的难点在于提高防控对策的精准性。我国疫情防控取得了显著成效，但随着时间的演进全球疫情形势反弹的不确定性仍然存在，外防输入、内防反弹的压力依然很重，现阶段乃至未来一段时期，疫情防控将伴随中国经济社会发展成为新常态。建议针对8种调控类型，从人口流动、交通和资源等引导与管控方面分类提出精细化的疫情防控策略，提升城市公共卫生治理能力。  相似文献   

Analysis of city centrality based on entropy weight TOPSIS and population mobility:A case study of cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt     

罗静  陈四云  孙璇  朱媛媛  曾菊新  陈广平 《地理学报(英文版)》2020,30(4):515-534

Based on statistical data and population flow data for 2016,and using entropy weight TOPSIS and the obstacle degree model,the centrality of cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt(YREB)together with the factors influencing centrality were measured.In addition,data for the population flow were used to analyze the relationships between cities and to verify centrality.The results showed that:(1)The pattern of centrality conforms closely to the pole-axis theory and the central geography theory.Two axes,corresponding to the Yangtze River and the Shanghai-Kunming railway line,interconnect cities of different classes.On the whole,the downstream cities have higher centrality,well-defined gradients and better development of city infrastructure compared with cities in the middle and upper reaches.(2)The economic scale and size of the population play a fundamental role in the centrality of cities,and other factors reflect differences due to different city classes.For most of the coastal cities or the capital cities in the central and western regions,factors that require long-term development such as industrial facilities,consumption,research and education provide the main competitive advantages.For cities that are lagging behind in development,transportation facilities,construction of infrastructure and fixed asset investment have become the main methods to achieve development and enhance competitiveness.(3)The mobility of city populations has a significant correlation with the centrality score,the correlation coefficients for the relationships between population mobility and centrality are all greater than 0.86(P<0.01).The population flow is mainly between high-class cities,or high-class and low-class cities,reflecting the high centrality and huge radiating effects of high-class cities.Furthermore,the cities in the YREB are closely linked to Guangdong and Beijing,reflecting the dominant economic status of Guangdong with its geographical proximity to the YREB and Beijing's enormous influence as the national political and cultural center,respectively.  相似文献   

Australian ‘gayborhoods’ and ‘lesborhoods’: a new method for estimating the number and prevalence of adult gay men and lesbian women living in each Australian postcode     

Denton Callander  Julie Mooney-Somers  Phillip Keen  Rebecca Guy  Tim Duck  Benjamin R. Bavinton 《International journal of geographical information science》2020,34(11):2160-2176

ABSTRACT

Gay men and lesbian women often demonstrate unique settlement patterns, forming what have been referred to as ‘gayborhoods’. This study sought to provide the first postcode-level estimates of population size and prevalence of gay and lesbian people in Australia. Data on same-gender-partnered households from the Australian Census were combined with information from six different surveys conducted from 2011 to 2017. We estimated that in 2016 there were 132,203 gay men (1.5% of adult males; 95% CI: 1.4–1.6) and 79,931 lesbian women (0.9% of adult females; 95% CI: 0.8–1.0) in Australia. While many postcodes were sparsely populated by gay and lesbian people (40.1% had prevalences of <0.1%), 24.6% were moderately populated (prevalences in the 50-95th percentile) and 2.7% were highly populated (95th percentile). By jurisdiction, the Australian Capital Territory had the highest prevalences of gay men (2.1%; 95% CI: 2.0–2.2) and lesbian women (1.5%; 95% CI: 1.4–1.6). Although the majority of highly populated postcodes were found in major cities (83.7%), some were also found in regional and remote area (16.3%). This method can be applied in other countries to enhance populate estimates. The accompanying dataset can be used to guide service delivery, conduct geographically contextualised research and develop policies relevant to gay men and lesbian women in Australia.  相似文献   

基于栅格的关中平原城市群人居环境质量综合评价          下载免费PDF全文

魏献花  白永平  车磊  王栋  效瑞  张文娴 《干旱区地理》2019,42(5):1176-1184

基于自然与人文多重栅格数据，构建人居环境质量综合指数评价模型，分析2015年关中平原城市群人居环境的空间分异格局，并对人口分布与人居环境质量的协同性进行探讨。结果表明：(1)人居自然环境呈现出自东向西，由山地、高原向平原、谷地依次递减的空间分布格局，受地形影响最为明显，地形起伏度与人居自然环境呈负相关关系。(2)人居人文环境表现出平原低、山区高，城镇高于乡村的空间分布格局，受城市行政层级影响显著。(3)关中平原城市群人居环境综合质量指数介于0.216～0.716之间，呈现出以关中平原、汾河谷地向外梯级递减的带状空间分布格局。(4)关中平原城市群人口密度与人居环境质量空间分布显著一致，总体呈现出平原高于山地，城市高于乡村的空间分布规律，人居环境质量越高，人口密度越大，土地利用也越充分。  相似文献   

Peaks of People: Using Topographic Prominence as a Method for Determining the Ranked Significance of Population Centers     

Garrett Dash Nelson  Ryan McKeon 《The Professional geographer》2019,71(2):342-354

This article borrows a statistical method from physical geography—topographical prominence—to suggest a new technique for measuring the relative significance or rank of population centers. Unlike raw population measures, prominence gives consideration to both the spatial intensity of concentrated population areas as well as the spatial dependence or independence of neighboring settlement clusters in relation to one another. We explain how to apply the topographic prominence calculation method to gridded population data and examine its practical utility through case studies of several U.S. states. We then discuss some ways in which parametric choices about point-to-surface transformations can result in considerably different outcomes and offer further suggestions for conceptualizing and measuring population center significance.  相似文献   

粤港澳大湾区人口老龄化时空特征及其经济效应     

李琼  李松林  张蓝澜  李昊  刘毅 《地理研究》2020,39(9):2130-2147

中国新时代“两个十五年”的现代化强国战略周期,恰恰是快速人口老龄化纵深发展期,人口年龄结构快速老龄化与经济社会之间的发展不平衡矛盾将日益严峻。本文利用广东省第四次、第五次、第六次人口普查资料、2015年广东省1%人口抽样调查资料、香港统计年刊和澳门统计年鉴数据,运用空间自相关分析法、柯布-道格拉斯生产函数和空间回归等方法,研究2000—2015年粤港澳大湾区人口老龄化的时空特征及其经济效应,结果表明：① 粤港澳大湾区人口老龄化进程慢于广东省,更慢于全国,但于2015年已进入老年型I期。② 粤港澳大湾区老龄化呈动态演变特征,空间上以香港和江门为起点,经西北向北扩散的“C”型分布模式,高收入城市以澳门和香港为起点向北扩散,最终形成中心-外围的空间分布格局。③ 粤港澳大湾区人口老龄化对经济增长具有负向影响,老龄人口增加1%,人均GDP降低3%。人均固定资本投入和人均人力资本投入有正的经济效应,人均人力资本投入带来的正向效应要大于人均固定资本投入。鉴于此,粤、港、澳三地应建立起协同治理模式,构建跨境的养老合作机制;促进产业结构升级,充分利用人力资本促进技术创新,并正确评估不同阶段人口老龄化对经济增长的影响,妥善处理好人口老龄化与经济之间的关系至关重要。  相似文献   

Entrepreneurial causation and effectuation logics in a regional context: Assessing the importance of population density     

Jarle Aarstad  Stig-Erik Jakobsen 《Norsk geografisk tidsskrift. Norwegian journal of geography》2019,73(5):290-300

ABSTRACT

The purpose of the article is to assess whether an entrepreneurial causation or effectuation logic is a function of geographical location in densely populated economic regions versus sparsely populated economic regions. A causation logic implies that the entrepreneur primarily focuses on a predefined goal and further aims to identify the means to reach that goal. By contrast, an effectuation logic implies that the entrepreneur to a larger extent focuses on the means at hand, which she or he aims at materialising into one or more goals that are not necessarily predefined. The empirical data for the study are based on an investigation and evaluation of Norwegian entrepreneurs in business incubation that are located in many different economic regions of the country. Multilevel regression analyses showed that geographical location in sparsely populated economic regions is associated with a causation logic, whereas a location in densely populated economic regions is associated with an effectuation logic. An implication of the article is that entrepreneurial stakeholders, such as policymakers, incubator managers, public and private partners, and entrepreneurs themselves should be aware of differences in causation and effectuation logics between entrepreneurs located in densely versus sparsely populated economic regions.  相似文献   

皋兰老虎台红砂种群在不同坡向的空间格局及关联性          下载免费PDF全文

刘旻霞  南笑宁  夏素娟  李全弟  蒋晓轩 《干旱区地理》2019,42(6):1359-1367

种群的空间格局是研究植物种群相互作用及种群与环境关系的重要方法。红砂（Reaumuria soongarica）是黄土高原半干旱区的主要物种，通过野外的群落调查，运用空间点格局分析法中的Ripley K函数，分析甘肃皋兰老虎台荒漠植被不同坡向红砂种群的空间分布格局与种内关联。结果显示：红砂种群为增长型种群，其在不同坡向的分布具有显著差异；南坡及西南坡坡向上，红砂种群Ⅰ、Ⅱ级个体在小尺度上呈显著聚集分布，随着龄级及空间尺度的增加，红砂种群聚集强度逐渐减弱，最后趋于随机分布。西坡、西北坡坡向上生长大量的蓍状亚菊（Ajania achilloides）和短花针茅（Stipa breviflora）等对红砂的生长造成抑制并加剧种间竞争，各级红砂种群的分布格局均以随机分布为主。不同坡向上，红砂种群Ⅰ、Ⅱ龄级个体之间在小尺度内表现为负关联，随着尺度增加关联度降低，Ⅲ、Ⅳ龄级与Ⅰ、Ⅱ龄级个体之间呈显著的负关联，而Ⅲ、Ⅳ龄级之间没有明显关联性，表明龄级相近的个体在空间分布上是相互独立的。综上所述，在黄土高原半干旱区，影响红砂种群分布的主要因素除了其自身的生物、生态学特性外，微生境的影响也十分重要。  相似文献   

Modelling population retention in Australia’s Northern Territory – how do current forms of migration contribute to population turnover and retention?     

James Thurmer  D. Carson  A. Taylor 《The Australian geographer》2019,50(4):435-452

ABSTRACT

In the past, population growth in Australia's Northern Territory, as in other peripheral parts of high-income countries, has been driven by internal labour migration and migration from outside of Australia. These have been contributing to the high population turnover experienced in peripheral areas. Since 2010, the Northern Territory has experienced low (and even negative) population growth, and public policy is currently focused on migration as a lever to reverse this trend. However, the extent to which the characteristics of migrants influence the potential for longer-term population growth is poorly understood. This paper uses a new method to analyse the contributions of various types of migrants to both population turnover and retention. Two major sets of findings emerge: First, the significance of separating newer in-migrants from longer-term residents when analysing migration patterns; and secondly, the contribution of age, gender, Indigenous status, international origin, wages and industry of employment to the Northern Territory's population turnover. The research suggests that current forms of migration favour people who are likely to stay for only short periods, and have high wage demands. The main policy inference is that long-term population growth will likely not eventuate unless new forms of migration can be stimulated.  相似文献