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1.
为探明气候变化下干旱半干旱地区湿草甸参考作物蒸散发(ET0)影响因子,使用FAO 56 P-M模型对科尔沁湿草甸ET0进行模拟,利用涡度相关系统对模型的适用性进行评价,并通过通径分析及指标敏感性分析对ET0的影响因子进行辨识。结果表明:(1)小时尺度模拟精度最高,日尺度次之,月尺度较差,小时尺度上晴、阴、雨3种天气条件下模拟效果不同,晴天最优,阴雨天较差。(2)ET0年内变化呈单峰曲线状,生长季明显高于非生长季,集中在3—10月,占全年89.79%。生长季典型晴天ET0逐小时分布特征遵循倒“U”单峰型变化规律。(3)通径分析结果显示,对ET0的通径系数以及对回归方程估测可靠程度E的总贡献均表现为VPD(饱和水汽压差) > Tmin(最低气温) > Rn(冠层表面净辐射)>u2(2 m高度风速),即VPD为影响ET0最重要的因子;指标敏感性分析中,在去除VPD后引起的E变化最大,说明ET0VPD的变化最为敏感,其次为u2TminRn。  相似文献   
2.
Evapotranspiration (ET) is an important parameter in hydrologic processes and modelling. In agricultural watersheds with competing uses of fresh water including irrigated agriculture, estimating crop evapotranspiration (ETc) accurately is critical for improving irrigation system and basin water management. The use of remote sensing-based basal crop coefficients is becoming a common method for estimating crop evapotranspiration for multiple crops over large areas. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and the Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index (SAVI), based on reflectance in the red and near-infrared bands, are commonly used for this purpose. In this paper, we examine the effects of row crop orientation and soil background darkening due to shading and soil surface wetness on these two vegetation indices through modelling, coupled with a field experiment where canopy reflectance of a cotton crop at different solar zenith angles, was measured with a portable radiometer. The results show that the NDVI is significantly more affected than the SAVI by background shading and soil surface wetness, especially in north–south oriented rows at higher latitudes and could lead to a potential overestimation of crop evapotranspiration and irrigation water demand if used for basal crop coefficient estimation. Relationships between the analysed vegetation indices and canopy biophysical parameters such as crop height, fraction of cover and leaf area index also were developed for both indices.  相似文献   
3.
Frequent frost occurrences in the Kenyan highlands have had devastating effects on agricultural productivity. With inadequate management systems to mitigate the impacts, farmers have often had to bear the burden of losses resulting from frost damage. While agriculture in Kenya remains dependent on weather and climate, the agricultural economy of Kenya continues to suffer, underscoring the need for building local knowledge as basis for development of early warning systems. The current paper attempts to delineate frost zones by statistically characterizing them based on known risk factors related to topography (elevation, convexity, aspect, upslope flow length) and Land Surface Temperature (LST) derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). Through binary logistic regression, a logistic regression model was developed utilizing observation data (frost occurrence and non-occurrence) as a binary dependent variable to estimate the probability of frost occurrence. Assuming a 0.5 probability cut-off threshold between frost occurrence and non-occurrence, an overall accuracy of 81% with area under Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) Curve of 0.88 was obtained. No evidence of lack of model fit was detected. This model outperforms the currently operational model that utilizes MODIS LST alone to detect frost zones in the Kenyan tea plantations. It provides an improved method for effective delineation of frost zones by incorporating local topographic characteristics.  相似文献   
4.
国家级现代农业气象业务技术进展   总被引:8,自引:4,他引:4  
农业气象业务技术是开展农业气象服务的基础和前提,因此,农业气象业务技术的研发一直是国家级农业气象业务服务的核心工作。近年来,国家级农业气象业务技术已逐步迈向精细化、定量化,涵盖了农业气象监测评价、作物产量预报、农业气象灾害监测评估与影响预报、农用天气预报、农林病虫害发生发展气象等级预报等诸多领域。随着农业气象业务技术的发展,支撑农业气象服务的客观产品更加丰富和多样化,既有站点产品,又有格点产品,涵盖了日、周、月、季、年等不同时间尺度。以农业气象指标、数理统计模型、作物生长模拟、卫星遥感、地理信息系统、大数据等技术为核心的国家级农业气象业务平台(CAgMSS)已成为全国农业气象业务系统的重要品牌。面向现代农业发展对气象服务日益增长的需求,精细化、精准化的农业气象灾害监测与风险评估技术、作物长势评估与产量预报综合集成技术、农业应对气候变化技术以及农业气象大数据挖掘与人工智能技术将是未来国家级农业气象业务技术发展的重点。  相似文献   
5.
This study firstly analyzed the shrinkage of winter wheat and the changes of crop- ping systems in the Hebei Plain from 1998 to 2010 based on the agricultural statistic data of 11 cities and meteorological data, including daily temperature, precipitation, water vapor, wind speed and minimum relative humidity data from 22 meteorological stations, and then calcu- lated the water deficit and irrigation water resources required by different cropping systems, as well as the irrigation water resources conserved as a result of cropping system changes, using crop coefficient method and every ten-day effective precipitation estimation method. The results are as follows. 1) The sown areas of winter wheat in the 11 cities in the Hebei Plain all shrunk during the study period. The shrinkage rate was 16.07% and the total shrinkage area amounted to 49.62×10^4 ha. The shrinkage was most serious in the Bei- jing-Tianjin-Tangshan metropolitan agglomerate, with a shrinkage rate of 47.23%. 2) The precipitation fill rate of winter wheat was only 20%-30%, while those of spring maize and summer maize both exceeded 50%. The irrigation water resources demanded by the winter wheat-summer maize double cropping system ranged from 400 mm to 530 mm, while those demanded by the spring maize single cropping system ranged only from 160 mm to 210 ram. 3) The water resources conserved as a result of the winter wheat sown area shrinkage during the study period were about 15.96×10^8 m^3/a, accounting for 27.85% of those provided for Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei by the first phase of the Mid-Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project.  相似文献   
6.
为进一步研究WOFOST模型在河南省冬麦区的适用性,以河南省30个农业气象观测站1991—2014年冬小麦观测资料、历史气象资料和土壤资料为依据,对WOFOST模型进行逐站调参和验证,分别建立了30个站的冬小麦模型参数。其中1991—2010年为模型调参年份,2011—2014年为模型验证年份。各站开花期和成熟期调参模拟的归一化均方根误差NRMSE分别小于5%和3%,验证误差分别为3.7%和2.9%。除潢川和固始外,模型对其余各站产量模拟的归一化均方根误差NRMSE全省各站均小于20.0%,验证误差全省平均为15.2%,大部分站点观测值和模拟值相关系数r通过了显著检验。利用调参后的模型模拟2011—2014年冬小麦生长动态变化可知,模拟地上部总干物重与实测单株干物重、模拟LAI与单株叶面积有较一致的变化趋势,拟合度较高。因此,WOFOST模型对河南省冬小麦主要发育阶段、产量及干物质积累模拟能力较强,具有良好的应用前景。  相似文献   
7.
Soil erosion has become a serious environmental problem worldwide, and slope land is the main source of soil erosion. As a primary cover of slope land, crops have an important influence on the occurrence and development of runoff and soil erosion on slope land. This paper reviews the current understanding of runoff and soil erosion on slope cropland. Crops mainly impact splash detachment, slope runoff, and sediment yield. In this review paper, the effects of crop growth and rainfall on the splash detachment rate and the spatial distribution of splash detachment are summarized. Crop growth has a significant impact on runoff and sediment yield. Rainfall intensity and slope gradient can influence the level of erosive energy that causes soil erosion. Furthermore, other factors such as antecedent soil water content, soil properties, soil surface physical crust, and soil surface roughness can affect soil anti-erodibility. The varying effects of different crops and with different influence mechanisms on runoff and soil erosion, as well as changes in their ability to influence erosion under different external conditions should all remain focal points of future research. The effect of crop vegetation on runoff and soil erosion on slope land is a very important factor in understanding large-scale soil erosion systems, and in-depth study of this topic is highly significant for both theory and practice.  相似文献   
8.
山区合适耕地经营规模确定的实证研究——以重庆市为例   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
范乔希  邵景安  应寿英 《地理研究》2018,37(9):1724-1735
在地形起伏、地块破碎、分布半径较远等约束下,山区多大的经营规模是合适的?这是目前必须弄清的科学问题之一。使用480份有效调查问卷,以投入农业的劳动力为测算单位,以劳均纯收入为评价指标,分作物类型和地块分布半径,构建计量经济模型,测算不同条件下合适的耕地经营,结果表明:① 在现有社会经济条件下,样本村农业土地适度规模经营面积为24~32亩,适度规模下的劳均纯收入远高于当前农村人均纯收入,且与城镇居民的差距明显缩小。② 作物类型对适度规模影响不大,但对农民纯收入产生较大作用。经济作物和粮食作物的适度规模分别为24.33亩、24.63亩,差异不显著,但种植经济作物和粮食作物在适度规模下的劳均纯收入相差3638元,巨大的差距将促使经济作物种植面积不断扩大。③ 距离对适度规模影响较大,但对劳均纯收入影响不大。0.5 km内、0.5~1 km的适度规模分别为28.62亩、31.83亩,单位劳动力的适度规模相差3亩,这表明距离是目前从事农业生产时劳动力投入时须考虑的重要因素。但是,对应的劳均纯收入相差较小,又说明伴随耕作距离的增加,更多的投入主要依靠机械来完成,从而带动适度规模的扩大。1 km外的建模未通过检验,也进一步说明未实现规模经营、没有进行机械化耕作、离家远的土地收支严重不平衡,撂荒严重,规模化经营、机械化耕作是解决距离问题的有效途径。本文得出的土地适度规模是可行的,也验证了推进土地适度规模经营的可行性和必要性。  相似文献   
9.
采用Ludox-QPS方法,研究了2011年8月采自长江口邻近海域9个站位沉积物中纤毛虫的群落结构及分布特点,并结合沉积环境进行综合分析。结果表明,表层8cm沉积物中底栖纤毛虫的平均丰度为(2782±1493)cells/10cm2,生物量为(10.06±6.41)μgC/10cm2。长江口海域北部站位的丰度和生物量呈从近岸向外海增加,南部的站位呈现相反的分布趋势。在垂直分布上, 62%的底栖纤毛虫分布在表层2cm, 12%分布在5—8 cm。本研究共检获纤毛虫106种,隶属于15纲/亚纲, 24目, 69属,前口纲在丰度及生物量上均为最优势类群(丰度占45.5%,生物量占56.4%),核残迹纲在生物量上居第二位。就食性来看,肉食性纤毛虫物种数最多(44种),其丰度和生物量所占比例也最高(40.3%,66.8%),但在长江口外站位(M1站),菌食性纤毛虫为最优势摄食类群。分析表明,研究海域底栖纤毛虫群落结构与底层水盐度最相关。聚类分析结果显示,由于较多量的伪钟虫属(Pseudovorticella)和原领毛虫属(Prototrachelocerca)种类出现导致长江口北部L1站的纤毛虫群落结构不同于其他站位。本研究所获底栖纤毛虫的丰度和生物量较东海离岸海域已有研究结果均高,表层8cm沉积物中纤毛虫的丰度约是上层30m水柱中浮游纤毛虫的116倍,生物量约是后者的150倍。基于目前黄东海有关底栖纤毛虫物种多样性的已有报道,其多样性在长江口离岸海域高于近岸潮间带,且在离岸海域东海低于黄海。  相似文献   
10.
华北平原是我国主要农作物产区,田间秸秆焚烧现象普遍存在,选取秋收季节(2014年10月)分析了秸秆燃烧的排放特征,利用区域化学传输模型WRF-Chem模拟研究了燃烧排放对气态前体物及其氧化产物的影响,以及最终导致的PM2.5中硫酸盐、硝酸盐和铵盐的变化。研究表明:2014年秋收季节,河南和山东等省份的秸秆燃烧排放会在东南风的输送作用下影响京津冀地区;秸秆燃烧排放大量挥发性有机物(VOCs),导致火点源及周边地区大气中主要氧化剂浓度上升,提升了区域大气氧化能力;当携带大量VOCs的秸秆燃烧烟羽与以化石燃料排放为主的城市气团相混合时,大气氧化性增强会加速城市地区人为源排放的NOx和SO2等气态前体物的氧化过程,提高硫酸盐和硝酸盐的形成速率、促进二次无机气溶胶的生成。  相似文献   
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