基于小波变换与神经网络的石羊河流域夏季地温预测模型研究   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

贾东于  李开明  聂晓英  袁春霞  李清峰  高福元 《冰川冻土》2020,42(2):412-422

地温变化在气候反馈效应中起着重要作用， 理解地温及其与影响因素之间的时空关系对预测全球温度变化至关重要。利用1998 - 2017年石羊河流域的逐日常规气象观测资料， 采用小波分析结合BP（Back Propagation）神经网络构建了石羊河流域夏季地温预报模型， 结果表明： 日平均地温预测效果在不同站点均为最佳， 其中预测值和观测值的相关系数均大于0.87， 3 ℃以内的预测概率均大于84%。其中， 民勤地区地温预测效果最好， 预测值和观测值的相关系数达到0.91， 3 ℃以内的预测概率达到86%。日最高地温的预测值与观测值的相关系数高于0.8， 但误差平方和、 标准差较大。永昌地区日最高地温的模拟效果最好， 3 ℃以内的预测概率达到83%。日最低地温的预测与观测值的平均相关系数高于0.66， 3 ℃以内的预报概率高于83%， 但预测值略低。其中， 武威地区日最低地温的预测效果最好， 预测值与观测值的相关系数为0.72， 3 ℃以内的预测概率达到94%。研究成果可为有效弥补干旱、 半干旱区地温观测资料缺失和探讨其与局地气候的关系提供一些参考。  相似文献   

地震应急指挥中心可视化中控系统的设计与实现     

林向洋  文鑫涛  高小跃  甄盟  郑通彦 《地震地磁观测与研究》2020,41(4):225-231

介绍地震应急指挥中心中控系统的建设情况，阐述了可视化智能中控系统的功能需求、逻辑结构和应用框架结构，分析了可视化智能中控系统的功能特点，并对中控系统的技术发展和应用进行展望。  相似文献   

利用InSAR资料反演宁洱Ms6.4地震震源参数及库仑应力变化     

陈晨月  冯光财  高华  杨怀宁 《大地测量与地球动力学》2019,39(3):295-301

首先利用ALOS PALSAR数据，通过D-InSAR技术获取2007-06-03云南宁洱MS6.4地震的同震形变场，然后基于Okada弹性半空间位错模型反演该地震的断层几何以及精细滑动分布，最后计算宁洱地震后周边断层的静态库仑应力变化。结果表明，形变主要集中在西盘，最大视线向形变量为51.6 cm；反演得到的震源位置为23.05°N、101.02°E，深度3 km，断层走向145°，倾向49.5°，平均滑动角153°，发震断层为NNW向普洱断裂，断层活动以右旋走滑为主，兼具逆冲分量；断层面最大滑动量为1.2 m，反演得到的震级为MW619。基于库仑应力场发现，磨黑断裂处于库仑应力增加区域，而2014年景谷地震位于负值区域。结合实地考察资料和反演结果表明，宁洱地震为浅源地震，但断层并未出露地表。  相似文献   

Adsorption Mechanism and Kinetic Characterization of Bituminous Coal under High Temperatures and Pressures in the Linxing-Shenfu Area     

TAO Chuanqi  WANG Yanbin  LI Yong  NI Xiaoming  GAO Xiangdong 《《地质学报》英文版》2020,94(2):399-408

The majority of coalbed methane(CBM) in coal reservoirs is in adsorption states in coal matrix pores. To reveal the adsorption behavior of bituminous coal under high-temperature and high-pressure conditions and to discuss the microscopic control mechanism affecting the adsorption characteristics, isothermal adsorption experiments under hightemperature and high-pressure conditions, low-temperature liquid nitrogen adsorption-desorption experiments and CO2 adsorption experiments were performed on coal samples. Results show that the adsorption capacity of coal is comprehensively controlled by the maximum vitrinite reflectance(Ro, max), as well as temperature and pressure conditions. As the vitrinite reflectance increases, the adsorption capacity of coal increases. At low pressures, the pressure has a significant effect on the positive effect of adsorption, but the effect of temperature is relatively weak. As the pressure increases, the effect of temperature on the negative effect of adsorption gradually becomes apparent, and the influence of pressure gradually decreases. Considering pore volumes of pores with diameters of 1.7-100 nm, the peak volume of pores with diameters 10-100 nm is higher than that from pores with diameters 1.7-10 nm, especially for pores with diameters of 40-60 nm, indicating that pores with diameters of 10-100 nm are the main contributors to the pore volume. The pore specific surface area shows multiple peaks, and the peak value appears for pore diameters of 2-3 nm, indicating that this pore diameter is the main contributor to the specific surface area. For pore diameters of 0.489-1.083 nm, the pore size distribution is bimodal, with peak values at 0.56-0.62 nm and 0.82-0.88 nm. The adsorption capability of the coal reservoir depends on the development degree of the supermicroporous specific surface area, because the supermicroporous pores are the main contributors to the specific pore area. Additionally, the adsorption space increases as the adsorption equilibrium pressure increases. Under the same pressure, as the maximum vitrinite reflectance increases, the adsorption space increases. In addition, the cumulative reduction in the surface free energy increases as the maximum vitrinite reflectance increases. Furthermore, as the pressure increases, the surface free energy of each pressure point gradually decreases, indicating that as the pressure increases, it is increasingly difficult to adsorb methane molecules.  相似文献   

微量硫化物、硫酸盐硫同位素EA-IRMS在线测试分析     

武晓珮  范昌福  胡斌  高建飞  李延河 《地球学报》2020,41(5):605-612

常规EA-IRMS硫同位素测试中, 硫化银(Ag2S)的需样量为0.2~1.0 mg, 硫酸钡(BaSO4)的需样量为0.35~1.5 mg, 较大的需样量已难以满足珍贵样品及微区样品的分析要求, 因此如何减少测试样品量已成为EA-IRMS测试分析工作中急需解决的问题。通过对EA-IRMS测试系统的研究发现, 在采用常规方法测试样品时, 由于初始He载气流速(100 mL/min)、进入分流接口时的流速(10 mL/min)与进入离子源时流速 (0.3 mL/min)的差异导致样品燃烧产生的目标气体中99.7%的气体被浪费, 样品的总体利用率仅有0.3%。因此如何减少样品在测试过程中的损耗, 提高样品的利用率, 从而减少需样量的关键在于缩小载气流速的差距。本实验在常规EA-IRMS测试技术基础上进行了关键改进,在元素分析仪和分流接口之间设计增加一个由六通阀和自动加热冷阱构成的装置, 自动加热冷阱可在Load模式时收集SO2气体, 六通阀在Load-Inject模式之间切换时可改变He载气流速, 通过与分流接口匹配的反吹He载气(10 mL/min)将冷阱中富集的SO2气体送入分流接口, 从而保证进入分流接口前样品燃烧产生的SO2气体全部收集。这一改进, 理论上可以将样品的利用率提高10倍, 该系统需硫量降至3~13 μg, 并且可以提高反应管的寿命, 降低清灰的频率, 提高工作效率。同时有效避免了拖尾的产生, 提高分析结果的精密度。本次微量样品实验获得的硫同位素数据与常规方法一致, 分析精度优于0.15‰(1SD), 测量值与真值的差异在0.4‰以内, 达到国际同类实验室先进水平。此外, 该方法可为微量有机碳、氮同位素EA-IRMS测试分析工作的开展提供参考经验。  相似文献   

基于GIS的盐城国家级自然保护区生态安全评价（英文）     

李海萍  高戈  李菁 《资源与生态学报(英文版)》2020,11(1):38-49

本研究利用遥感和GIS技术,分析盐城自然保护区1983–2018年的景观格局变化,建立了基于区域自然-社会-经济复合生态系统安全格局的评价指标体系,分析了生态安全变化的空间特征和成因。结果表明,1983–2018年由于人类活动加剧,研究区内景观格局变化强烈,从以自然景观为主发展到自然景观与人工景观并存。在整体生态安全方面,目前保护区的生态安全状况不容乐观,从保护区丹顶鹤的生存状态看,保护区总体上还是适宜丹顶鹤栖息的,但由于人类活动的增加以及政策的调整,丹顶鹤的栖息地呈现破碎化并向核心区和缓冲区等局部区域聚集。我们应从管理、政策制定以及当地居民的环境保护意识上增加宣传和投入,并相应减少保护区内人类活动的强度。  相似文献   

Supplementation of Yeast Extract to Practical Diet Improves the Growth,Anti-Oxidative Capacity and Intestinal Morphology of Shrimp Litopenaeus vannamei     

MA Shuoli  WANG Xiaoxia  GAO Weihua  ZHANG Wenbing  MAI Kangsen 《中国海洋大学学报(英文版)》2019,(4)

Two control diets based on the commercial formula were designed to contain high(27%, D1) and low(22%, D2) levels of fish meal, respectively. Into D2, 500, 1000 and 1500 mg kg~(-1) of yeast extract were added, respectively, yielding three experimental diets(YE1 through YE3). Shrimp(initial body weight 0.30 g ± 0.02 g) were fed with the experimental diets, five tanks each diet and 30 shrimp individuals each tank, for 8 weeks, and then challenged with Vibrio parahaemolyticus. The results showed that the specific growth rate(SGR) of shrimp in D2 was significantly lower than that of shrimp in D1(P 0.05). The SGR of shrimp in YE3 was similar to that of shrimp in D1. The feed intake of shrimp was similar between D1 and D2. The feed conversion ratio and protein efficiency ratio of shrimp were similar among all diets(P 0.05). YE significantly improved the activity of glutathione S-transferase. The concentration of glutathione(GSH) and the total serum anti-oxidative capacity(T-AOC) of D1 were significantly higher than those of shrimp feeding other diets(P 0.05). The content of serum malondialdehyde of shrimp feeding YE2 and YE3 was significantly lower than that of shrimp feeding D2(P 0.05). The thickness of intestine muscular layer of shrimp feeding YE1 and YE2 was similar to that of shrimp feeding D1. The shrimp feeding YE1 showed the highest villus height of intestine among all groups. The cumulative mortality after challenging was similar among all groups(70.00%–86.67%)(P 0.05). In conclusion, 1000–1500 mg kg~(-1) of YE was suggested to be supplemented into the practical diets to improve the growth, anti-oxidative capacity and intestinal morphology of shrimp L. vannamei.  相似文献   

凤太矿集区东塘子铅锌矿床S、Pb同位素组成对成矿物质来源的示踪     

张革利  田涛  王瑞廷  高卫宏  常宗东 《中国地质》2020,47(2):472-484

东塘子铅锌矿床是秦岭成矿带中典型的铅锌矿床之一,前人对东塘子铅锌矿床成矿作用研究较多,但受限于测试手段及认识的局限性,多年来对其物质来源的认识仍未统一。本文在充分研究东塘子铅锌矿床地质特征的基础上,开展了相关样品的S、Pb同位素分析,分析对象包括了不同类型的铅锌矿石,讨论了该铅锌矿床的成矿物质来源、区内岩浆岩与铅锌成矿的关系等。研究表明:东塘子铅锌矿床矿石硫化物δ34S值变化范围为1.8‰～12.5‰,平均7.50‰,计算获得成矿流体中总硫δ34S∑S为7.7‰,显示海水硫酸盐(蒸发膏岩)与岩浆硫的混合来源特征。矿石铅同位素组成稳定,铅源主要来自富U-Th-Pb的上地壳与深部,可能与深部岩浆活动有关。研究结果表明,东塘子铅锌矿床的成矿过程与南秦岭印支期大规模多阶段构造-岩浆-流体活动密切相关,为下一阶段区内找矿工作提供了新的思路。  相似文献   

Effects of Seawater Acidification on Early Development of Clam Cyclina sinensis     

SUI Yanming  ZHOU Kai  LAI Qifang  YAO Zongli  GAO Pengchen 《中国海洋大学学报(英文版)》2019,(4)

Anthropogenic emission of atmospheric carbon dioxide(CO_2) has led to a rapid increase in atmospheric CO_2 concentration. Increasing atmospheric CO_2 can reduce seawater pH and carbonate ions, which may adversely affect the survival of the larvae of calcareous animals. Cyclina sinensis is a commercially and ecologically important species in several Asian countries. Living in coast shallow waters, this species has experienced the coastal environmental changes frequently throughout its life cycle. In this study, we simulated possible future seawater pH values including 8.2, 7.8 and 7.4 and examined the effects of ocean acidification on the early development of C. sinensis. Clam embryos were incubated for 48 h(2 d) in control and high-CO_2 seawater to compare embryogenesis, larval growth and swimming behavior. Fertilization rate was quite sensitive to pH, and moderate acidification could induce a significant decrease in fertilization rate. However, only extreme acidification could bring significant negative effect to hatching rate, body size, and average path velocity of trochophora. Moreover, with seawater acidification, C. sinensis needs much more time to reach the same developmental stage, which increases the risk of larva survival. Together with recent studies demonstrating negative impacts of high CO_2 on fertilization and larva swimming behavior, the results imply a future decrease of C. sinensis populations in oceans if its acclimation to the predicted environmental alteration does not occur.  相似文献   

2017-08-09新疆精河Ms6.6地震附近区域相对应变的变化分析     

高丽娟  邢喜民  高歌  李尚伟 《大地测量与地球动力学》2019,39(10):1002-1006

2017年精河M_S6.6地震震前，尼勒克、巴伦台和小泉沟台钻孔应变仪记录到显著的应变变化，经现场落实确认，异常是可靠的。根据这3个台的记录资料计算相对应变的变化，结果表明，地震前最大（小）主应变大小和方向分别出现明显加速和急剧偏转变化。此外还发现，相对应变场异常期间主方向与震源机制解P轴方位较为一致。  相似文献