对ECWMF和T639数值模式产品在新疆暴雪影响系统预报能力中的检验     

马超  贾丽红  杨霞 《沙漠与绿洲气象(新疆气象)》2015,9(2):31-37

本文使用2009～2012年新疆冬季43场暴雪天气过程中ECWMF和Ｔ639L60（2.5*2.5）数值预报产品预报场资料,通过天气学检验方法,对新疆主要影响系统,即西西伯利亚低槽、乌拉尔山大槽、北方横槽、中亚低值系统和其对应的高空500hPa形势、海平面气压做72小时内的滚动预报场与相对应实况场的检验。检验结果表明：两家模式对于高空500hPa形势场预报都比较好,尤其是48h之内,ECWMF的准确率略高于T639;海平面气压场两家模式的预报准确率均低于500hPa形势场,T639要优于ECWMF,尤其是48h之内,一般海平面气压中心强度的预报值较实况会有偏小3～5hPa的误差,以上结论可较好地指导预报业务。  相似文献   

杭州湾北岸一次极端高温过程分析     

陆琛莉  潘士雄  盛文斌  何斌 《气象科技》2015,43(3):522-529

利用实时探空场和欧洲中心20:00细网格、NCEP再分析资料对2013年8月6—10日杭州湾北岸极端高温过程进行分析,结果表明:副高脊线稳定在30°N、高层有辐散气流、低层26℃暖气团处于强副高中心影响是持续40℃极端高温发生的大尺度环流背景。副高与南亚高压"相向而行",在垂直方向上产生深厚的次级环流圈,是2013年极端高温持续时间长、影响范围大的一个重要因素。极端高温的出现与空气异常干燥有密切关系,北方高层干空气南下叠加在中低层副高暖干气团之上,从高层到近地层受一致下沉气流的绝热压缩增温,以及低空暖平流输送的综合影响,是导致7—9日杭州湾北岸多地最高气温屡破记录的原因。经检验,极端高温期间,业务参考使用的4个主要数值模式对最高气温的预报,EC模式误差较小且稳定,绝对误差为1℃,而GFS、JMA和T639误差分别达3℃、4℃和5℃,应用时需订正,以上结果可供夏季高温预报参考。  相似文献   

利用基于抗差垂直向方差分量估计的GPS-InSAR数据融合方法反演三维形变场   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

吴学雨  李明峰  董思学  王彬  赵志胜 《测绘通报》2021,(12):38-43

GPS-InSAR数据融合解算三维形变场模型易受观测值粗差影响,且基于方差分量估计的定权方法不具备抵御粗差能力,计算效率低下。鉴于此,本文提出了一种基于抗差垂直向方差分量估计的GPS-InSAR融合解算模型,利用方差分量估计方法及抗差估计理论,通过对观测值最优化分类并进行选权迭代,精确分配权重,进而有效计算三维形变场。试验结果表明,该方法能有效抵御观测值粗差不利影响,提高三维形变场反演精度,提升逐点式计算的三维形变场效率。  相似文献   

Groundwater recharge in arid areas induced by tropical cyclones: lessons learned from Gonu 2007 in Sultanate of Oman   总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3  

Osman Abdalla  Rashid bin Yahya Al-Abri 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2011,63(2):229-239

Younger groundwater found in some Omani aquifers is a result of recent recharge from cyclonic and storm events [Weyhenmeyer et al. (Science 287:842–845, 2000); Young et al. (J Appl Geophys 57:43–61, 2004)]. The analysis of the meteorological data in Oman indicates an anomalous rainfall on a decadal interval whereas cyclones frequency is expected to increase due to global climatic changes. The cyclone Gonu has severely struck the eastern Omani coasts in 2007 resulting in devastating floods. Huge volume of water (3,672 mm³) spread over the coastal plain calling for an assessment of potential groundwater recharge subsequent to this event. The present study evaluates groundwater recharge with respect to Gonu 2007 to assess the potential of recharge induced by such cyclones in the arid zones. The hydrographs of several piezometers sited along the coastal plain in Muscat Province have been studied and variation in water table rise has been analyzed. Significant water table rise is indicated for areas with geological and structural settings favoring rapid infiltration of water yielding considerable groundwater mound, whereas piezometers located in less favorable zones show minimum rise of water table. However, soon after the floods the aquifer hydrodynamics has readjusted to attain equilibrium and the groundwater mound dissipated. The cumulative rise of the water table on an areal extent does not exceed a few centimeters indicating lesser volume of recharge. Comparatively, recharge from frequent precipitation along favorable zones produces more significant recharge compared with cyclonic events where surface water residence time is shorter to allow for efficient infiltration.  相似文献   

浪流耦合模式数值模拟及检验分析     

张志远  宋顺强  刘利  杨广文  张权  王燕 《海洋技术学报》2011,30(4):87-92

基于波致混合理论,采用MASNUM海浪模型和POM环流模型建立的浪流耦合模式系统,模拟了2011年6月8日-11日中国海区对热带风暴“莎莉嘉”的响应过程,模拟结果显示波高和波向变化趋势与热带风暴的螺旋结构特征相符;利用中国海区Argo浮标温度观测,对2010年7月-12月模拟结果检验,比较表明模拟结果与观测吻合较好,细...  相似文献   

基于March算法的三态内容寻址存储器的故障诊断及实现     

王莉  黄洪  刘海青 《成都信息工程学院学报》2011,26(1):61-65

介绍了三态内容寻址存储器的硬件组成,分析了三态内容寻址存储器的工作原理,结合March算法的理论设计了三态内容寻址存储器故障诊断的方法,并介绍了故障检测的流程,在VxWorks的操作系统下以Tornado为开发平台实现了三态内容寻址存储器的故障诊断功能,最后给出了实验结果。实际应用表明结果可靠性能高能满足用户的需求。  相似文献   

五河—凤阳地区金多金属矿成矿模式探讨     

刘青  李炳武 《安徽地质》2015,(1):12-16

五河-凤阳地区具有较好的成矿地质条件,目前已知该地区有多种金铅锌多金属矿床类型,但对于该地区的成矿模式的探讨,迄今为止没有一个统一的成矿模式可以较好地解释该地区已知的多种不同类型的成矿模型。本文依托安徽省基金项目,对该地区的成矿模式进行了探讨。  相似文献   

安徽庐枞火山岩盆地西南部“含-横隐伏隆起”构造特征与成矿条件分析     

马冬  王松根  吴国荣 《安徽地质》2015,(2):87-91,98

"含-横隐伏隆起"构造位于"庐枞火山岩盆地"与"印支隆起"过渡带的含山—横山一带,是一个小型的基底隆起构造,近期在该隆起带的北部下含山一带的深部见到接触交代矽卡岩型含铜磁铁矿体,是庐枞火山岩盆地南西部多年来找矿的新发现。对该区深部找矿具有指导意义。  相似文献   

Composition and origin of organic matter in surface sediments of Lake Sarbsko: A highly eutrophic and shallow coastal lake (northern Poland)   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Micha? Woszczyk  Achim Bechtel  Reinhard Gratzer  Maciej J. Kotarba  Miko?aj Kokociński  Jens Fiebig  Roman Cie?liński 《Organic Geochemistry》2011,42(9):1025-1038

We present an organic geochemical study of surface sediments of Lake Sarbsko, a shallow coastal lake on the middle Polish Baltic coast. The aim was to provide evidence concerning the origin of the organic matter (OM) and its compositional diversity in surface deposits of this very productive, highly dynamic water body. The content and composition of the OM in the bottom sediments were investigated at 11 sampling stations throughout the lake basin. OM sources were assigned on the basis of bulk indicators [total organic carbon (TOC), total nitrogen (TN), δ¹³C_TOC and δ¹⁵N and extractable OM yield], biomarker composition of extractable OM and compound-specific C isotope signatures. The source characterization of autochthonous compounds was verified via phytoplankton analysis. The distribution of gaseous hydrocarbons in the sediments, as well as temporal changes in lake water pH, the concentration of DIC (dissolved inorganic carbon) and δ¹³C_DIC were used to trace OM decomposition.The sedimentary OM is composed mainly of well preserved phytoplankton compounds and shows minor spatial variability in composition. However, the presence of CH₄ and CO₂ in the bottom deposits provides evidence for microbial degradation of sedimentary OM. The transformation of organic compounds in surface, bottom and pore waters via oxidative processes influences carbonate equilibrium in the lake and seasonally favours precipitation or dissolution of CaCO₃.The data enhance our understanding of the relationships between the composition of sedimentary OM and environmental conditions within coastal ecosystems and shed light on the reliability of OM proxies for environmental reconstruction of coastal lakes.  相似文献   

长江中下游庐江-枞阳矿集区龙桥铁矿成矿时代研究   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

马立成  董树文  仲玉斌  张千明  高昌生  何德锋 《地质学报》2011,85(7):1206-1214

龙桥铁矿床是长江中下游地区隐伏的富铁矿床,位于庐江-枞阳火山岩矿集区的北缘,铁矿体主要赋存于下白垩统龙门院组火山岩之下和石英正长岩、二长岩之上的泥质粉砂岩和碳酸盐之中;本文分别采集了龙桥铁矿床井下370中段与黄铁矿矿体、方解石共生的黑云母样品(Lz370-1)和矿体围岩蚀变粗安岩中的黑云母样品(Lz370-2),进行A...  相似文献