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Li Zongxing Feng Qi Zhang Wei He Yuanqing Wang Xufeng Norm Catto An Wenlin Du Jiankuo Chen Aifang Liu Li Hu Meng 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2012,109(1-2):305-321
Total hours of sunshine are one of the most important factors affecting climate and environment, and its long-term variation is of much concern in climate studies. Trends of temporal and spatial patterns in sunshine hours and related climatic factors over southwestern China are evaluated for the period 1961–2009 based on data from 111 standard meteorological stations. The results showed that southwestern China is experiencing a statistical decrease of sunshine hours, at the rate of 31.9 h/10a during 1961–2009. The decline was particularly strong in summer, whereas it is nonsignificant in winter. Spatially, statistically significant decreases of sunshine hours mainly occurred in lower altitude regions, especially in the Sichuan basin and Guizhou plateau. Sunshine hours have a high correlation with wind speed, relative humidity, precipitation, cloud cover, surface downwards solar radiation flux, and cloud water content, with wind speed showing the strongest relationship to sunshine hours, implicit in the close correlation (temporally and spatially) between the two variables. Changing water vapor and cloud cover influence sunshine hours in southwestern China. In addition, the increased surface downwards solar radiation flux also made some contribution to a rise of sunshine hours during 1991–2009. The larger decreasing trends of sunshine hours at urban stations than rural stations may reflect the effect of urbanization on sunshine hours. Variations are dominated by the comprehensive functions of multiple factors owing to the complex nature of effects on sunshine hours. 相似文献
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Alexander Bihlo Colin G. Farquharson Ronald D. Haynes J Concepción Loredo-Osti 《Computational Geosciences》2017,21(1):117-129
Probabilistic domain decomposition is proposed as a novel method for solving the two-dimensional Maxwell’s equations as used in the magnetotelluric method. The domain is split into non-overlapping sub-domains and the solution on the sub-domain boundaries is obtained by evaluating the stochastic form of the exact solution of Maxwell’s equations by a Monte-Carlo approach. These sub-domains can be naturally chosen by splitting the sub-surface domain into regions of constant (or at least continuous) conductivity. The solution over each sub-domain is obtained by solving Maxwell’s equations in the strong form. The sub-domain solver used for this purpose is a meshless method resting on radial basis function-based finite differences. The method is demonstrated by solving a number of classical magnetotelluric problems, including the quarter-space problem, the block-in-half-space problem and the triangle-in-half-space problem. 相似文献
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《Marine Policy》2017
Decisions regarding the selection and implementation of management strategies that constrain fishing pressure can be among the most difficult choices that fisheries managers and stakeholders must make. These types of decisions often need to be confronted in a data-limited context, where few if any management measures are currently in place or fisheries are managed independent of adequate scientific advice. This situation can sometimes create a high risk of overfishing and potential loss of economic and social benefits. To address this situation, simple model-free indicator-based frameworks have the potential to be effective decision-making platforms for fisheries where quantitative estimates of biomass and fishing mortality based reference points are lacking. In this paper, a multi-indicator framework is developed that enables decision-makers to proceed with management decisions in data-limited situations. Model-free indicators are calculated using trends in observed data, rather than stock assessment derived estimates of biomass and fishing mortality. The framework developed is adaptive so that adjustments to catch or effort are recursive and can respond to changing environments, socioeconomic conditions, and fishing practices. Using stakeholder-defined objectives as a foundation, indicators and reference points of fishery performance are chosen that can be evaluated easily by undertaking analyses of available data. Indicators from multiple data streams are used so that uncertainty in one indicator can be hedged through careful interpretation and corroboration of information from alternative indicators. During the adaptive management cycle, managers and stakeholders evaluate each indicator against the associated reference points to determine performance measures, interpret the results using scientific and local knowledge, and adjust fishery management tactics accordingly using pre-defined harvest control rules. The framework facilitates the interpretation of situations in which performance measures suggest divergent stock abundance or productivity levels. A case study is presented on this framework's development for conch and lobster fisheries of Belize. 相似文献
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《Marine Policy》2013
Bulk carriers have been linked with high risks of structural failure and foundering, and with heavy loss of human life. This study used Lloyd's casualty records to investigate the extent to which dry bulk shipping has become safer over the last 30 years, and to identify shipping factors associated with the risks of bulk carriers' foundering and crew fatalities in recent years. Although there have been reductions over time in bulk carrier casualties and crew fatalities since the early 1980s, with an interim peak during the early and mid 1990s, there have been increases since 2005, linked partly to several bulk carriers that foundered when carrying nickel ore. Of 11 shipping factors considered, the strongest independent predictors of foundering and crew fatalities in recent years were the flag state, the cargo, the location of the casualty, weather conditions and the gross tonnage. Over the study period, elevated casualty and crew fatality rates were linked strongly with newly emerging or expanding flags. 相似文献
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The mobility of toxic metals in soils or sediments is of great concern to scientists and environmentalists since it directly affects the bioavailability of metals and their movement to surface and ground waters. In this study, a multi-surface soil speciation model for Cd (II) and Pb (II) was developed to predict the partition of metals on various soil solid components (e.g. soil organic matter (SOM), oxide mineral, and clay mineral). In previous study, the sorption of metal cations on SOM and oxide minerals has been evaluated by thermodynamically based surface complexation model. However, metal binding to soil clay fractions was normally treated in a simplistic manner: only cation exchange reactions were considered and exchange coefficient was assumed unity. In this study, the binding of metals onto clays was described by a two-site surface sorption model (a basal surface site and an edge site). The model was checked by predicting the adsorption behavior of Cd (II) and Pb (II) onto three selected Chinese soils as a function of pH and ionic strengths. Results showed that the proposed model more accurately predicted the metal adsorption on soils under studied condition, especially in low ionic strength condition, suggesting that adsorption of metals to soil clay fractions need to be considered more carefully when modeling the partition of trace elements in soils. The developed soil speciation model will be useful when evaluating the movement and bioavailability of toxic metals in soil environment. 相似文献
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Antal?Embey-IsztinEmail author Gábor?Dobosi Jean-Louis?Bodinier Delphine?Bosch G.?A.?Jenner Simone?Pourtales Olivier?Bruguier 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2014,168(3):1054
Peridotite xenoliths erupted by alkali basaltic volcanoes in the western Pannonian Basin can be divided into two fundamentally contrasting groups. Geochemical characteristics of the abundant protogranular, porphyroclastic and equigranular nodules suggest that these samples originate from an old consolidated and moderately depleted lithospheric mantle domain. In contrast, the geochemical features of the worldwide rare, but in the Pannonian Basin relatively abundant, poikilitic xenoliths attest to a more complex evolution. It has been argued that the origin of the peculiar texture and chemistry may be intimately linked to melt/rock reactions at successively decreasing liquid volumes in a porous melt flow system. The most likely site where such reactions can take place is the asthenosphere–lithosphere boundary. In this context, poikilitic xenoliths may provide petrological and geochemical evidence for reactions between magmatic liquids issued from the uprising asthenosphere and the solid mantle rocks of the lithosphere. These reactions are important agents of the thermal erosion of the lithosphere; thus, they could have considerably contributed to the thinning of the lithosphere in the Pannonian region. We suggest that in the Pannonian Basin, there could be a strong relation between the unusual abundance of poikilitic mantle xenoliths and the strongly eroded lithosphere. 相似文献
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Alex N. Chafe Igor M. Villa John M. Hanchar Richard Wirth 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2014,167(5):1-17
K-feldspar (Kfs) from the Chain of Ponds Pluton (CPP) is the archetypal reference material, upon which thermochronological modeling of Ar diffusion in discrete “domains” was founded. We re-examine the CPP Kfs using cathodoluminescence and back-scattered electron imaging, transmission electron microscopy, and electron probe microanalysis. 40Ar/39Ar stepwise heating experiments on different sieve fractions, and on handpicked and unpicked aliquots, are compared. Our results reproduce the staircase-shaped age spectrum and the Arrhenius trajectory of the literature sample, confirming that samples collected from the same locality have an identical Ar isotope record. Even the most pristine-looking Kfs from the CPP contains successive generations of secondary, metasomatic/retrograde mineral replacements that post-date magmatic crystallization. These chemically and chronologically distinct phases are responsible for its staircase-shaped age spectra, which are modified by handpicking. While genuine within-grain diffusion gradients are not ruled out by these data, this study demonstrates that the most important control on staircase-shaped age spectra is the simultaneous presence of heterochemical, diachronous post-magmatic mineral growth. At least five distinct mineral species were identified in the Kfs separate, three of which can be traced to external fluids interacting with the CPP in a chemically open system. Sieve fractions have size-shifted Arrhenius trajectories, negating the existence of the smallest “diffusion domains.” Heterochemical phases also play an important role in producing nonlinear trajectories. In vacuo degassing rates recovered from Arrhenius plots are neither related to true Fick’s Law diffusion nor to the staircase shape of the age spectra. The CPP Kfs used to define the “diffusion domain” model demonstrates the predominance of metasomatic alteration by hydrothermal fluids and recrystallization in establishing the natural Ar distribution among different coexisting phases that gives rise to the staircase-shaped age spectrum. Microbeam imaging of textures is as essential for 40Ar/39Ar hygrochronology as it is for U–Pb geochronology. 相似文献
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Daniel Bégin Rodolphe Devillers Stéphane Roche 《International journal of geographical information science》2018,32(8):1611-1630
Over the last two decades, online communities have become ubiquitous, with millions of people accessing collaborative project websites every day. Among them, the OpenStreetMap project (OSM) has been very successful in collecting/offering volunteered geographic information (VGI). Very different behaviours are observed among OSM participants, which translate into large differences of lifespan, contribution levels (e.g. Nielsen’s 90–9-1 rule) and attitudes towards innovations (e.g. Diffusion of innovation theory or DoIT). So far, the literature has defined phases in the life cycle of contributors only based on the nature of their contributions (e.g. role of participants and edits characteristics). Our study identifies the different phases of their life cycle from a temporal perspective and assesses how these phases relate to the volume and the frequency of the contributions from participants. Survival analyses were performed using both a complementary cumulative distribution function and a Kaplan-Meier estimator to plot survival and hazard curves. The analyses were broken down according to Nielsen and DoIT contributors’ categories to highlight potential explanatory variables. This paper shows that two contribution processes combine with three major participation stages to form six phases in contributors’ life cycle. The volume of edits provided on each active day is driven by the two contribution processes, illustrating the evolution of contributors’ motivation over time. Since contributors’ lifespan is a universal metric, our results may also apply to other collaborative online communities. 相似文献