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1.
文中对IPCC第六次评估报告(AR6)第一工作组(WGI)报告的第七章关于地球能量收支、气候反馈和气候敏感度中的重要内容进行了凝练,并简要总结该方面的最新研究成果和结论。评估显示,自工业革命以来,人类活动造成的有效辐射强迫(ERF)为2.72 [1.96~3.48] W/m2,其中,均匀混合温室气体的贡献为3.32 [3.03~3.61] W/m2,气溶胶的贡献为-1.1 [-1.7~-0.4] W/m2。净的气候反馈参数为-1.16 [-1.81~-0.51] W/(m2∙℃),云仍然是气候反馈整体不确定性的最大来源。平衡态气候敏感度(ECS)和瞬态气候响应(TCR)可用于评估全球平均地表气温对强迫的响应,是衡量全球气候响应的有效手段。ECS和TCR的最佳估计分别为3.0 [2.0~5.0]℃和1.8 [1.2~2.4]℃。  相似文献   
2.
为了掌握快速路瓶颈路段异质交通流的演变规律,以缓解交通拥堵,本文以快速路上匝道瓶颈路段为研究对象,构建了考虑安全距离的改进NaSch上匝道模型,利用数值仿真,对不同场景交通流演化过程进行系统性研究。仿真结果显示:在不同条件下,异质交通流中自动驾驶车辆比例的增加对瓶颈路段交通运营状态影响结果各异。在自由流阶段,自动驾驶车辆比例的增加对快速路瓶颈路段运营通行能力的增加无显著影响,自动驾驶车辆比例取0.9时,瓶颈路段运营通行能力反而降低了2.48%;在交通拥堵状态下,当异质交通流中自动驾驶车辆比例达到0.7及以上时,才有助于交通拥堵的消散,且其临界值随交通拥堵状态程度的提高而增大;当交通密度达到100 veh/km以上时,自动驾驶车辆比例的增加无法实质性改善瓶颈路段交通拥堵状态。研究结果可为异质交通流环境下的快速路上匝道瓶颈路段的治堵策略提供理论依据。  相似文献   
3.
蒸发波导在海洋低空的发生概率高达90%,对舰船雷达、通信等电磁系统具有重要影响.为了分析利用GNSS卫星海面反射信号的时延-相关功率波形反演蒸发波导的可行性,本文提出了GNSS卫星海面反射信号的有效散射区域的概念,并将有效散射区域内的GNSS反射信号区分为GNSS标准反射信号和GNSS波导反射信号;然后,利用射线追踪方法,仿真分析了GNSS卫星海面反射信号的有效散射区域大小对蒸发波导的关键参数——波导高度的敏感性,并分析了在时延-相关功率波形上利用反射信号的传播时延将二者分离开的可行性.结果表明,GNSS卫星海面反射信号的有效散射区域对蒸发波导高度非常敏感,对于2~25m高的GNSS反射信号接收天线,当蒸发波导的高度由0m增加至20m时,GNSS反射信号有效散射区域半径的均值可由约14km迅速扩展至约160km;采用高度角足够大的GNSS卫星可以将有效散射区内的GNSS标准反射信号与GNSS波导反射信号在时延-相关功率波形上分离开.  相似文献   
4.
Korea's coastal and offshore fisheries have experienced reduction in their catch in the early 2000. The amount of catch from coastal and offshore fisheries dropped from 1.7 million tons in 1986 to 1 million tons in 2004. To address such catch reduction, fish stock enhancement programs have been constantly developed and implemented. However, as fish stocks have been estimated to decrease since 2000 in spite of various management measures, the Korean Government genuinely acknowledges the necessity to enhance fisheries productivity through the recovery of depleted fish stocks. Based on such acknowledgement, a fish stock rebuilding plan (FSRP) combined with conventional fish stock enhancement programs was established in 2005. For stocks which have shown drastic decrease, a FSRP was set up and promoted. So far, 10 FSRPs have been established and operated, and plan is being made to expand them to 20 species by 2012. The result of pilot projects shows that stocks have been increasing after the introduction of FSRPs. For instance, the catch per unit effort (CPUE) of sandfish in the East Sea has increased from 0.44 in 2005 to 0.78 in 2011. Consequently, fishing income has increased by 15%. The key lessons learned during the implementation of FSRP are: the causes for the decrease of stock vary and are complicated and it is necessary to adjust and eliminate some conventional policies that could have unforeseen negative impacts on fish stocks. The FSRP-based fisheries management policy in Korea carries great significance, for it has changed the focus of policy from simply maintaining the status quo to stock recovery and it allows relevant stakeholders to get actively involved in the procedures of establishing and promoting the plan, leading to effective implementation of the plan. The current FSRP is operated with species, but if it can be gradually expanded to encompass the whole ecosystem, it will greatly contribute to more effective management and fish stock recovery for all species in offshore and coastal waters surrounding Korea.  相似文献   
5.
The foundations of some ocean engineering structures are built to withstand not only the vertical gravity load V, but also the horizontal load H induced by sea waves and current. The horizontal load includes the concentrated force load, the moment load M, and the torque load T termed also as combined loading. It is of academic and engineering significance to study the deformation law of submarine seabed due to combined loading. On the basis of the three-dimensional elastic mechanics solution of circular foundation, numerical methods are used to analyze the deformation law of submarine soil under circular foundation with six degrees of freedom. The finite element analysis results give the elastic deformation law of soil in three dimensional spaces, modify the theoretical elasticity solution, and presents nonlinear soil deformation mechanism under the circular foundation with six degrees of freedom.  相似文献   
6.
This paper systematically compares modeled rates of change provided by global integrated assessment models aiming for the 2 °C objective to historically observed rates of change. Such a comparison can provide insights into the difficulty of achieving such stringent climate stabilization scenarios. The analysis focuses specifically on the rates of change for technology expansion and diffusion, emissions and energy supply investments. The associated indicators vary in terms of system focus (technology-specific or energy system wide), temporal scale (timescale or lifetime), spatial scale (regional or global) and normalization (accounting for entire system growth or not). Although none of the indicators provide conclusive insights as to the achievability of scenarios, this study finds that indicators that look into absolute change remain within the range of historical growth frontiers for the next decade, but increase to unprecedented levels before mid-century. Indicators that take into account or normalize for overall system growth find future change to be broadly within historical ranges. This is particularly the case for monetary-based normalization metrics like GDP compared to energy-based normalization metrics like primary energy. By applying a diverse set of indicators alternative, complementary insights into how scenarios compare with historical observations are acquired but they do not provide further insights on the possibility of achieving rates of change that are beyond current day practice.  相似文献   
7.
接地导线源电磁场全域有效趋肤深度   总被引:3,自引:2,他引:1       下载免费PDF全文
为了更好地推进广域电磁法的发展和应用,本文以接地长导线源为例,研究了可控源电磁场全场域的有效趋肤深度.利用频域电偶极源在均匀半空间产生电磁场的闭合表达式,计算了不同电磁场分量定义的有效趋肤深度,并讨论了在不同频率、不同偏移距、不同电导率情况下,有效趋肤深度的变化特性.根据有效趋肤深度随偏移距的变化特征以及与平面波趋肤深度之间的关系,利用多项式拟合的办法在五个不同频率范围内给出了适用于全场域的有效趋肤深度快速估算公式.研究结果表明:不同分量定义的有效趋肤深度是不同的,但是它们随偏移距、频率、电导率等参数的变化趋势是类似的,而且在一定范围内都趋近于平面波趋肤深度.理论模型的研究表明,有效趋肤深度可以作为测量参数选取和数据解释工作的参考依据.  相似文献   
8.
Accurate porosity and permeability evaluation of rock formations is critical to estimate the quality and resource potential of a reservoir. In addition to directly measure the porosity and pore size distribution, low field Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (NMR) is able to measure the effective porosity and estimate the in-situ formation permeability, though its robustness is arguable and requires calibrations on cores with specific lithologies.The Mesozoic formations of the central Perth Basin (Western Australia) host hot sedimentary aquifers and recently became key targets for geothermal heat extraction. A collection of cores was retrieved from three wells intersecting these units. The characterisation of their flow properties complements the current evaluation of the Perth Basin by adding new data on effective porosity, pore size distribution, pore geometry and calibration of predictive models for the permeability according to a comprehensive facies classification scheme.This study highlights the consistency of the NMR approach when compared to conventional helium injection method. Most favourable lithologies for well production correspond to very coarse to fine sandstones of fluvial channel fill with porosities >15% and permeabilities >>1 mD. Similarly, these facies exhibit (i) the highest effective porosities, (ii) the highest pore space to pore throat ratio, and (iii) the lowest contribution of clay bound water. These aspects confirm the importance of clay occurrence in the assessment of the flow efficiency of a formation.The Yarragadee Formation presents the best reservoir quality regarding its porosity and permeability, even though high discrepancies occur locally owing to the great variability of lithofacies encountered. The scattered values observed for the Lesueur Sandstone are likely to be due to the basin architecture and fault system which generate different mechanical compaction and secondary cementation. Given an adequate facies analysis, the NMR method represents a powerful tool to estimate the flow efficiency of a reservoir.  相似文献   
9.
As an important canopy structure indicator, leaf area index (LAI) proved to be of considerable implications for forest ecosystem and ecological studies, and efficient techniques for accurate LAI acquisitions have long been highlighted. Airborne light detection and ranging (LiDAR), often termed as airborne laser scanning (ALS), once was extensively investigated for this task but showed limited performance due to its low sampling density. Now, ALS systems exhibit more competing capacities such as high density and multi-return sampling, and hence, people began to ask the questions like—“can ALS now work better on the task of LAI prediction?” As a re-examination, this study investigated the feasibility of LAI retrievals at the individual tree level based on high density and multi-return ALS, by directly considering the vertical distributions of laser points lying within each tree crown instead of by proposing feature variables such as quantiles involving laser point distribution modes at the plot level. The examination was operated in the case of four tree species (i.e. Picea abies, Pinus sylvestris, Populus tremula and Quercus robur) in a mixed forest, with their LAI-related reference data collected by using static terrestrial laser scanning (TLS). In light of the differences between ALS- and TLS-based LAI characterizations, the methods of voxelization of 3D scattered laser points, effective LAI (LAIe) that does not distinguish branches from canopies and unified cumulative LAI (ucLAI) that is often used to characterize the vertical profiles of crown leaf area densities (LADs) was used; then, the relationships between the ALS- and TLS-derived LAIes were determined, and so did ucLAIs. Tests indicated that the tree-level LAIes for the four tree species can be estimated based on the used airborne LiDAR (R2 = 0.07, 0.26, 0.43 and 0.21, respectively) and their ucLAIs can also be derived. Overall, this study has validated the usage of the contemporary high density multi-return airborne LiDARs for LAIe and LAD profile retrievals at the individual tree level, and the contribution are of high potential for advancing forest ecosystem modeling and ecological understanding.  相似文献   
10.
Gaussian beam migration is a versatile imaging method for geologically complex land areas, which overcomes the limitation of Kirchhoff migration in imaging multiple arrivals and has no steep‐dip limits of one‐way wave‐equation migration. However, its imaging accuracy depends on the geometry of Gaussian beam that is determined by the initial parameter of dynamic ray tracing. As a result, its applications in exploration areas with strong variations in topography and near‐surface velocity are limited. Combined with the concept of Fresnel zone and the theory of wave‐field approximation in effective vicinity, we present a more robust common‐shot Fresnel beam imaging method for complex topographic land areas in this paper. Compared with the conventional Gaussian beam migration for irregular topography, our method improves the beam geometry by limiting its effective half‐width with Fresnel zone radius. Moreover, through a quadratic travel‐time correction and an amplitude correction that is based on the wave‐field approximation in effective vicinity, it gives an accurate method for plane‐wave decomposition at complex topography, which produces good imaging results in both shallow and deep zones. Trials of two typical models and its application in field data demonstrated the validity and robustness of our method.  相似文献   
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