Late Quaternary glaciations in the Cogarbu valley,Bhutanese Himalaya   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Xu Peng  Yixin Chen  Gengnian Liu  Beibei Liu  Yingkui Li  Qing Liu  Yesong Han  Weilin Yang  Zhijiu Cui 《第四纪科学杂志》2019,34(1):40-50

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气候变暖背景下极端气候对青海祁连山水文水资源的影响   总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1  

戴升  保广裕  祁贵明  马占良  白文蓉  余迪  冯晓莉  杨延华  时盛博 《冰川冻土》2019,41(5):1053-1066

利用青海祁连山区极端气候要素和青海湖、哈拉湖及主要河流的水文资料，研究表明：冷夜日数（10%）呈显著减少趋势，暖夜日数（90%）呈显著增加趋势；年大风日数显著减少；年降水量21世纪初增加趋势最为显著并发生突变，降水量增加幅度中西段大于东段；≥ 5 mm、≥ 10 mm、≥ 25 mm年降水日数呈显著增加趋势，进入21世纪后更为明显，而≥ 0.1 mm年降水日数呈减少趋势；年平均大风日数与湖泊水位、河流流量变化呈负相关，大风天气的减少，可以缓解湖面和土壤因蒸发而导致的水分损失，对植被的改善可增加径流的产生，流入湖泊的流量增加；降水量与湖泊水位、河流流量呈正相关，受21世纪降水量增加的影响青海湖水位逐年上升，共上升1.67 m，达到20世纪70年代末的水位，中西部主要河流流量近几年也达到最大值，而东段流量增加不明显；祁连山区≥ 5 mm、≥ 10 mm、≥ 25 mm年平均降水量与湖泊、河流流量变化呈正相关，各量级年降水量对湖泊水位、河流流量的增加贡献显著。  相似文献   

An extreme wave event in eastern Yucatán,Mexico: Evidence of a palaeotsunami event during the Mayan times     

Javier Lario  Chris Spencer  Teresa Bardají  Ángel Marchante  Victor H. Garduño-monroy  Jorge Macias  Sergio Ortega 《Sedimentology》2020,67(3):1481-1504

The Yucatán Peninsula, Mexico, has typically been considered a tectonically stable region with little significant seismic activity. The region though, is one that is regularly affected by hurricanes. A detailed survey of ca 100 km of the eastern Yucatán and Cozumel coast identified the presence of ridges containing individual boulders measuring >1 m in length. The boulder ridges reach 5 m in height and their origin is associated with extreme wave event activity. Previously modelled tsunami waves from known seismically active zones in the region (Muertos Thrust Belt and South Caribbean Deformed Belt) are not of sufficient scale in the area of the Yucatán Peninsula to have produced the boulder ridges recorded in this study. The occurrence of hurricanes in this region is more common, but two of the most destructive (Hurricane Gilbert 1988 and Hurricane Wilma 2005) produced coastal waves too small to have created the ridges recorded here. In this paper, a new tsunami model with a source area located on the Motagua/Swan Island Fault System has been generated that indicates a tsunami event may have caused the extreme wave events that resulted in the deposition of the boulder ridges.  相似文献   

辽宁省积雪对自动气象站观测地气温差的影响     

朱玲  顾正强  龚强  晁华  李杨  徐红  周晓宇  沈历都  蔺娜 《冰川冻土》2019,41(2):293-303

利用1971—2016年辽宁省61个气象站气温、地表温度、积雪日数和积雪深度资料，分析了积雪的保温作用及其对地气温差的影响。结果表明：更换自动站前后地表温度观测方式的差异导致地气温差显著增大，地气温差的增大程度受所在区域积雪日数、积雪深度的影响显著。在积雪期较长、积雪较厚的地区，积雪引起反照率增大，使得雪面温度降低，导致雪气温差减小，而雪的保温作用使得地气温差显著增大。因此，更换自动站前地（雪）气温差与积雪日数呈显著负相关，而更换自动站后地气温差与积雪日数呈显著正相关。各台站之间地气温差随积雪深度的变化系数差异较大，为0.045~0.858 ℃?cm^-1，在年平均积雪日数＜40 d、年平均极端积雪深度＜10 cm的区域，积雪的保温作用随积雪深度增大而显著增大；在年平均积雪日数＞40 d、年平均极端积雪深度＞10 cm的区域，10 cm以下的积雪对土壤保温作用随积雪深度增大显著，当积雪深度＞10 cm后，其保温作用随积雪深度增大的幅度明显减小。  相似文献   

一种基于M估计的Robust-ELM滑坡位移预测方法     

高彩云  高宁 《大地测量与地球动力学》2019,39(2):153-157

采用传统ELM算法进行滑坡位移预测时，其网络输出权值由最小二乘估计得出，导致ELM抗差能力较差，从而造成网络训练参数不准确。为此，将M估计与ELM相结合，提出一种基于M估计的Robust-ELM滑坡变形预测方法。该方法利用加权最小二乘方法来取代最小二乘法计算ELM输出权值，以减少滑坡监测数据中粗差对ELM预测的干扰。分别以链子崖、古树屋滑坡体为例，将Robust-ELM进行了单维、多维粗差的抵御性验证。结果表明，该方法能够有效降低粗差对预测的影响，具有良好的抗差能力。  相似文献   

剪切波分裂揭示的青藏高原上地壳地震各向异性基本特征          下载免费PDF全文

郭铁龙  高原 《地球物理学报》2020,63(3):1085-1103

青藏高原整体隆升,构造运动与介质变形强烈,然而由于地震观测数据不足,青藏高原内部上地壳各向异性研究一直是一个空白.本研究使用西藏地区的地震台网(2009年5月—2017年5月)的观测资料,利用剪切波分裂研究青藏高原上地壳地震各向异性特征.由于青藏高原固定地震台站分布稀疏,可用于进行剪切波分裂研究的近场地震事件记录稀少,本研究采用地震事件的单台定位技术,对公开的地震目录里没有震源深度数据的地震事件进行震源位置约束,并引入微震模板匹配定位方法,对连续地震波形进行检索,识别出地震目录里遗漏的新的微震(小地震)事件波形.微震识别获得的新地震事件记录是地震目录里报告的地震事件记录的大约6倍,用于补充研究区的剪切波分裂数据分析.通过数据分析,对比快波偏振方向,证实微震识别获得的数据极大地增加了有效数据的数量,提高了结果的可靠性.研究结果表明,雅鲁藏布江缝合带与班公—怒江缝合带之间的拉萨地块东部地区,台站的快剪切波(快波)偏振方向主要受区域应力场影响,快波偏振方向主要是NS或NNE方向,表明了区域最大主压应力方向;但个别地震台站(当雄台)快波偏振方向受原地主压应力影响,其快波偏振方向既不平行于断裂走向也不平行于区域主压应力方向,揭示出地壳介质的局部变形导致的局部应力方向不同于青藏块体里的其他地区.研究区西部的改则、普兰和研究区北部的双湖,快波偏振方向显示与断裂等构造走向一致的特点.研究区东部的昌都和察隅,快波偏振方向除了与断裂走向(或构造线)一致,还与地表运动的方向相同,揭示了青藏块体东部的深部物质可能的运移方向.这个现象虽然还需更多的研究证实,但这个发现的重要启示是,地震各向异性结合地表变形可用于探讨地壳深部物质的运动.  相似文献   

袭港热带气旋持续时间长期频率分析     

陶山山  宋佳玲  廖振焜  董胜 《中国海洋大学学报(自然科学版)》2020,(2):135-141

香港经常受到西北太平洋热带气旋的影响,对该地区热带气旋持续时间的研究有助于经济社会的稳定发展。按照气象和天文台警告信号,热带气旋分为不同的强度等级。建立热带气旋持续时间的Poisson-Weibull复合分布模型,相应获得持续时间重现值的求解公式,分别用于不同热带气旋分类下持续时间多年一遇重现值的计算中。基于1987-2016年袭港热带气旋数据的分析结果表明,Poisson-Weibull分布适用于不同的持续时间分类样本;强的热带气旋经常会伴随较长的持续时间,这将会对该地区造成更为严重的破坏,这可为防灾减灾提供参考。  相似文献   

DO4事件的精确定年及亚旋回特征: 来自福建龙岩仙云洞石笋的证据^*          下载免费PDF全文

车印平  肖海燕  姜修洋  蔡炳贵 《古地理学报》2020,22(2):377-384

DO4事件(Dansgaard-Oeschger event 4,简称DO4事件)是发生在MIS3阶段后期的1次明显升温事件。根据福建仙云洞石笋(编号XYⅢ-28)300~500 mm层段6个高精度²³⁰Th年龄和188个氧同位素数据,获得了29.13~27.94 kyrB.P.时期平均分辨率达7 yr的东亚夏季风强度的演变过程数据。该石笋 δ¹⁸O 记录的DO4事件起止时间为28.83±0.06~28.46±0.06 kyr B.P.,持续时间为0.37±0.06 kyr。相对基于GICC05年层计数时标NGRIP冰芯 δ¹⁸O 记录在DO4开始阶段的突变特征,仙云洞石笋记录的DO4事件开始阶段 δ¹⁸O 值在145±60 yr内偏负0.4‰,表现为相对缓慢的变化特征,这说明仙云洞所处的中国东南沿海地区有可能受到热带低纬海气耦合的影响。此外,仙云洞石笋 δ¹⁸O 记录揭示了在DO4事件内部及附近存在一系列的百年至十年际尺度夏季风增强事件,与格陵兰冰芯 δ¹⁸O 记录、阿拉伯海海盆反照率记录的DO4事件亚旋回结构在定年误差范围内相对应,表明东亚夏季风强度与北高纬温度变化和ITCZ(赤道辐合带)位置移动在百年至十年际尺度上存在紧密的联系。  相似文献   

Regional extreme‐dry‐spell frequency analysis using the L‐moments method in the middle reaches of the Yellow River Basin,China          下载免费PDF全文

Dun‐Xian She  Jun Xia  Dan Zhang  Ai‐Zhong Ye  Aditya Sood 《水文研究》2014,28(17):4694-4707

In this research, the regional extreme‐dry‐spell frequency in the middle reaches of the Yellow River Basin (YRB) is studied by the L‐moments method. The research area has been divided into three subregions (regions 1, 2 and 3), which have been identified as homogenous regions. The results of a goodness‐of‐fit test indicate that a generalized normal distribution is the optimal regional model for regions 1 and 2 whereas a generalized Pareto distribution is the optimal regional model for region 3. The return period analysis figures out that the maximum length‐of‐dry‐spell (MxDS) values increase from south to north in the southern part and increase from northeast to southwest in the northern part of the middle reaches of the YRB under different return periods. The increments of quantiles of dry spell under different return levels indicate that drought risk in region 1 is higher than that in regions 2 and 3. The analysis of the occurrence day of MxDS shows that MxDS mostly occurred during winter of 1998 and spring of 1999 in most stations during the considered period. By comparing summer MxDS events, it can be found that mean MxDS values have slightly increased in regions 1 and 2 during the last five decades. The maximum mean MxDS values appeared in the 2000s for regions 1 and 2 and in the 1990s for region 3. The atmospheric circulation shows that the positive anomaly centre in the west of North China, negative anomaly centre in the east of North China and the strong western Pacific subtropical high led to the decrease of precipitation in North China during the summer of 1997. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

An advanced numerical model of elastomeric seismic isolation bearings   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

Manish Kumar  Andrew S. Whittaker  Michael C. Constantinou 《地震工程与结构动力学》2014,43(13):1955-1974

The nuclear accident at Fukushima Daiichi in March 2011 has led the nuclear community to consider seismic isolation for new large light water and small modular reactors to withstand the effects of beyond design basis loadings, including extreme earthquakes. The United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission is sponsoring a research project that will quantify the response of low damping rubber (LDR) and lead rubber (LR) bearings under loadings associated with extreme earthquakes. Under design basis loadings, the response of an elastomeric bearing is not expected to deviate from well‐established numerical models, and bearings are not expected to experience net tension. However, under extended or beyond design basis shaking, elastomer shear strains may exceed 300% in regions of high seismic hazard, bearings may experience net tension, the compression and tension stiffness will be affected by isolator lateral displacement, and the properties of the lead core in LR bearings will degrade in the short‐term because of substantial energy dissipation. New mathematical models of LDR and LR bearings are presented for the analysis of base isolated structures under design and beyond design basis shaking, explicitly considering both the effects of lateral displacement and cyclic vertical and horizontal loading. These mathematical models extend the available formulations in shear and compression. Phenomenological models are presented to describe the behavior of elastomeric isolation bearings in tension, including the cavitation and post‐cavitation behavior. The elastic mechanical properties make use of the two‐spring model. Strength degradation of LR bearing under cyclic shear loading due to heating of lead core is incorporated. The bilinear area reduction method is used to include variation of critical buckling load capacity with lateral displacement. The numerical models are coded in OpenSees, and the results of numerical analysis are compared with test data. The effect of different parameters on the response is investigated through a series of analyses. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献