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1.
Large rock slope failures play a pivotal role in long-term landscape evolution and are a major concern in land use planning and hazard aspects. While the failure phase and the time immediately prior to failure are increasingly well studied, the nature of the preparation phase remains enigmatic. This knowledge gap is due, to a large degree, to difficulties associated with instrumenting high mountain terrain and the local nature of classic monitoring methods, which does not allow integral observation of large rock volumes. Here, we analyse data from a small network of up to seven seismic sensors installed during July–October 2018 (with 43 days of data loss) at the summit of the Hochvogel, a 2592 m high Alpine peak. We develop proxy time series indicative of cyclic and progressive changes of the summit. Modal analysis, horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio data and end-member modelling analysis reveal diurnal cycles of increasing and decreasing coupling stiffness of a 260,000 m3 large, instable rock volume, due to thermal forcing. Relative seismic wave velocity changes also indicate diurnal accumulation and release of stress within the rock mass. At longer time scales, there is a systematic superimposed pattern of stress increased over multiple days and episodic stress release within a few days, expressed in an increased emission of short seismic pulses indicative of rock cracking. Our data provide essential first order information on the development of large-scale slope instabilities towards catastrophic failure. © 2020 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. 相似文献
2.
为了解垃圾填埋场周边地下水环境污染状况,以长沙市固体废弃物处理场周边土壤、地下水及下游水库水质为研究对象,对研究区进行采样分析,采用单因子污染指数法和内梅罗污染综合指数法对该垃圾填埋场周边环境重金属含量特征进行分析与风险评价。结果表明:As、Cr(Ⅵ)、Ni、Pb、Zn、Cu重金属是填埋场周边环境中的主要污染物,区域采样点及下游水库中重金属含量均值低于地下水质量标准Ⅲ类,填埋场区污染状况良好;Cr(Ⅵ)含量在ZK1与R1样品中均高于地下水质量标准Ⅲ类,是填埋场周边地下水的主要风险污染物;ZK1~ZK4中土壤重金属元素以Pb、Cr(Ⅵ)富集为主,其达中度污染程度,应引起重视。 相似文献
3.
四川省青川县滑坡灾害群发,点多面广,区域滑坡灾害预警是有效防灾减灾的重要手段,预警模型是成功预警的核心。由于研究区滑坡诱发机理复杂、调查监测大数据及分析方法不足等原因,传统区域地质灾害预警模型存在预警精度有限、精细化不足等问题。文章在青川县地质灾害调查监测和降水监测成果集成整理与数据清洗基础上,构建了青川县区域滑坡灾害训练样本集,样本集包括地质环境、降雨等27个输入特征属性和1个输出特征属性,涵盖了青川县近9年(2010—2018年)全部样本,数量达1 826个(其中,正样本613个,负样本1 213个)。基于逻辑回归算法,对样本集进行5折交叉验证学习训练,采用贝叶斯优化算法进行模型优化,采用精确度、ROC曲线和AUC值等指标校验模型准确度和模型泛化能力。其中,ROC曲线也称为“受试者工作特征”曲线;AUC值表示ROC曲线下的面积。校验结果显示,基于逻辑回归算法的模型训练结果准确率和泛化能力均较好(准确率94.3%,AUC为0.980)。开展区域滑坡实际预警时,按训练样本特征属性格式,输入研究区各预警单元27个特征属性,调用预先学习训练好的模型,输出滑坡灾害发生概率,根据输出概率分段确定滑坡灾害预警等级。当输出概率P≥40%且P<60%时,发布黄色预警;当输出概率P≥60%且P<80%时,发布橙色预警;当输出概率P≥80%时,发布红色预警。 相似文献
4.
区域中长期地震危险性数值分析研究,需要对其初始构造应力场有所了解,但目前以及未来一段时期内仍无法直接观测到深部孕震层区域的应力场状况.本文首先基于岩石库仑-摩尔破裂准则,利用青藏高原及邻区百年历史范围内的强震信息,来反演估算该区域的初始应力场.然后,考虑区域构造应力加载及强震造成的应力扰动共同作用,重现了历史强震的发展过程.然而对于初始应力场的反演估算,本文仅能给出区域其上下限的极限值,并不能唯一确定.因此,采用Monte Carlo随机法,进行大量独立的随机试验计算,生成数千种有差异的区域初始应力场模型,且保证每种模型都能令历史强震有序发生,但未来应力场演化过程不尽相同.最后,将数千种模型在未来时间段内的危险性预测结果集成为数理统计结果,据此给出了区域未来的地震危险性概率分布图.初步结果显示未来强震危险性概率较高地区集中在巴颜喀拉块体边界及鲜水河断裂带地区. 相似文献
5.
The importance of large wood (LW) to riverine functions is well established scientifically and increasingly recognized by river managers in many countries. However, public perceptions largely associate LW with elevated danger and/or need for intervention. Such perspectives are amplified amongst recreational river users (defined here as any individuals that recreate by floating on the water surface of a river) who interact more directly with rivers than the general public and commonly view wood in life-or-death terms. Given that human life occupies a highest-order charge for river managers, they are left in a difficult position when safety appears to conflict with environmental services. LW deficits are perpetuated partly because wood removal, often in the name of safety, is far easier than placing wood in rivers. Further, river restoration practitioners are frequently burdened with expectations and liability unparalleled in built environments. A fundamentally different mindset is necessary to achieve desired ecologic outcomes when working with rivers. Based on two decades of experience as boaters, LW practitioners, and emergency responders, we (1) discuss LW hazard and risk from recreational and management viewpoints, (2) discretize objective and measurable physical properties of LW hazards, and (3) propose a decision framework that implicitly addresses risk by considering LW hazards relative to river use and ambient hazards. The approach is structured to increase objectivity in LW hazard mitigation and diminish asymmetric biases that favor LW removal. Our intent is to build understanding and rational flexibility among risk-averse management, regulatory, and funding entities to facilitate implementation of scientific understanding without undue risk to river users. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
6.
Base flows are important for tropical regions with pronounced dry seasons, which are facing increasing water demands. Base flow generation, however, is one of the most challenging hydrological processes to characterize in the tropics. In many years during the May–December wet season in the Panama Canal Watershed (PCW), base flows in rivers abruptly increase. This increase persists until the start of the December–April dry season. Understanding this unusual base flow jump (BFJ) behaviour is critical to improve water provisioning in the seasonal tropics, especially during droughts and extended dry seasons. This study developed an integrated approach combining piecewise regression on cumulative average base flow and sensitivity analysis to calculate the timing and magnitude of BFJ. Rainfall, forest cover, mean land surface slope, catchment area, and estimated subsurface storage were tested as predictors for the occurrence and magnitude of the BFJs in seven subcatchments of the PCW. Sensitivity analysis on correlated predictors allowed ranking of predictor contributions due to isolated and cross-correlation effects. Correlations between observed BFJs and BFJs predicted by watershed and rainfall-related predictors were 0.92 and 0.65 for BFJ timing and magnitude, respectively. Forest cover was the second most significant predictor after cumulative rainfall for jump magnitude, owing to larger subsurface storage and groundwater recharge in forests than pastures. Catchments in the mountainous eastern PCW always generated larger jumps due to their higher rainfall and greater forest cover than the western PCW catchments. The cross-correlations between predictors contributed to more than 50% of the jump variances. The results demonstrate the importance of rainfall gradient and catchment characteristics in affecting the sudden and sustained BFJs, which can help inform land management decisions intended to enhance water supplies in the tropics. This study underscores the need for more research to further understand the hydrological processes involved in the BFJ phenomenon, including better BFJ models and field characterizations, to help improve tropical ecosystem services under a changing environment. 相似文献
7.
In cockpit karst landscapes, fluxes from upland areas contribute large volumes of water to low-lying depressions and stream flow. Hydrograph hysteresis and similarity between monitoring sites is important for understanding the space–time variability of hydrologic responses across the “hillslope–depression–stream” continuum. In this study, the hysteretic feature of hydrographs was assessed by characterizing the loop-like relationships between responses at upstream sites relative to subsurface discharge at the outlet of a small karst catchment. A classification of hydrograph responses based on the multi-scale smoothing Kernel -derived distance classifies the hydrograph responses on the basis of similarities between hillslope and depression sites, and those at the catchment outlet. Results demonstrate that the temporal and spatial variability of hydrograph hysteresis and similarity between hillslope flow and outlet stream flow can be explained by the local heterogeneity of depression aquifer. Large depression storage deficits emerging in the highly heterogeneous aquifer produce strong hysteresis and multiple relationships of upstream hydrographs relative to the outlet subsurface discharge. In contrast, when depression storage deficits are filled during consecutive rainfall events, depression hydrographs at the high permeability sites are almost synchronous or exhibit a monotonous function with the hydrographs at the outlet. This reduced hydrograph hysteresis enhances preferential flow paths in fractured rocks and conduits that can accelerate the hillslope flow to the outlet. Therefore, classification of hydrograph similarities between any upstream sites and the catchment outlet can help to identify the dominant hydrological functions in the heterogeneous karst catchment. 相似文献
8.
为了研究盆地基岩倾角对盆地地表动力反应的影响,选取了一个跨度2 km,深度500 m的二维成层盆地为研究对象进行有限元动力反应分析。以持时0.25 s的狄拉克脉冲作为输入地震动,探讨了P波和SV波垂直入射时,盆地基岩倾角从10°\,20°\,30°\,40°依次增加的情况下盆地地震反应。结果表明:入射波在倾斜基岩处发生波型转化,同时产生面波,在盆地中心区域发生汇聚;随着基岩倾角的增加地表中心处的卓越频率有减小的趋势。 相似文献
9.
利用耦合单层城市冠层模型的中尺度数值模式WRF/UCM,选取8组不同反照率和绿化比例的屋顶冷却方案进行敏感性试验,模拟研究不同冷却屋顶方案对长三角城市群2013年夏季城市热环境的影响,并分析其影响机制。结果表明:不同冷却屋顶方案对城市群热环境的缓解效果与屋顶参数之间呈很强的线性关系。高温热浪天气下,HR4(反照率为1.0)和GR4(屋顶绿化率为100%)方案的制冷度日数分别降低了14.7%和10.9%,节约的能源比普通夏日更多。同时,高温热浪天气会增强热岛强度,高反照率屋顶方案在白天对热岛起到更有效的缓解,热浪天气下日平均热岛强度最大可降低1.36℃。相同方案下,在高温热浪天气下的缓解效果均胜于普通夏日,平均而言,高反照率屋顶和屋顶绿化的降温效果分别增大38.5%和34.9%,增湿效果分别增大29.5%和21.9%,这主要是由于在高温热浪天气下,高反照率屋顶方案能够减少更多的净辐射通量,屋顶绿化方案能够释放更多的潜热通量。此外,城市格点密集区域的降温效果优于分散的城市区域,处于城市群中的常州区域较单独的杭州区域的降温幅度平均高32%。 相似文献
10.
环境温度变化导致基坑支护结构内支撑轴力和变形过大的问题不容忽视。本文以福州地铁6号线潘墩站坑中坑工程为例,选取该基坑代表性区段采用ABAQUS程序及邓肯-张模型对其开挖和支护全过程进行三维有限元模拟,并将分析结果与现场部分监测数据进行对比,验证了所建模型及其材料参数取值的可靠性。同时,利用所建模型着重分析当地可能的季节或昼夜温差变化幅度内支撑轴力及围护墙水平位移的变化规律。结果表明:基坑开挖完成后,温度变化时支撑轴力与温度呈线性相关关系,轴力变化主要体现在内外坑的首道支撑上,此时围护结构整体向坑内或坑外运动,且地连墙侧移受温度影响范围主要集中在基坑开挖深度以上。不同开挖阶段的温度变化引起的温度效应相差较大,潘墩站最不利工况发生在最后一道支撑架设完毕后,此时地连墙水平位移增量及轴力变化幅度最大,温度效应最明显。该研究成果对类似软土基坑工程具有重要的理论和实践意义。 相似文献