Thresholds for post-wildfire debris flows: Insights from the Pinal Fire,Arizona, USA     

Carissa A. Raymond  Luke A. McGuire  Ann M. Youberg  Dennis M. Staley  Jason W. Kean 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2020,45(6):1349-1360

Wildfire significantly alters the hydrologic properties of a burned area, leading to increases in overland flow, erosion, and the potential for runoff-generated debris flows. The initiation of debris flows in recently burned areas is well characterized by rainfall intensity-duration (ID) thresholds. However, there is currently a paucity of data quantifying the rainfall intensities required to trigger post-wildfire debris flows, which limits our understanding of how and why rainfall ID thresholds vary in different climatic and geologic settings. In this study, we monitored debris-flow activity following the Pinal Fire in central Arizona, which differs from both a climatic and hydrogeomorphic perspective from other regions in the western United States where ID thresholds for post-wildfire debris flows are well established, namely the Transverse Ranges of southern California. Since the peak rainfall intensity within a rainstorm may exceed the rainfall intensity required to trigger a debris flow, the development of robust rainfall ID thresholds requires knowledge of the timing of debris flows within rainstorms. Existing post-wildfire debris-flow studies in Arizona only constrain the peak rainfall intensity within debris-flow-producing storms, which may far exceed the intensity that actually triggered the observed debris flow. In this study, we used pressure transducers within five burned drainage basins to constrain the timing of debris flows within rainstorms. Rainfall ID thresholds derived here from triggering rainfall intensities are, on average, 22 mm h⁻¹ lower than ID thresholds derived under the assumption that the triggering intensity is equal to the maximum rainfall intensity recorded during a rainstorm. We then use a hydrologic model to demonstrate that the magnitude of the 15-min rainfall ID threshold at the Pinal Fire site is associated with the rainfall intensity required to exceed a recently proposed dimensionless discharge threshold for debris-flow initiation. Model results further suggest that previously observed differences in regional ID thresholds between Arizona and the San Gabriel Mountains of southern California may be attributed, in large part, to differences in the hydraulic properties of burned soils. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

城市居民日常身体活动时空分异特征及影响因素   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0  

姜玉培  甄峰  赵梦妮  曹晨 《地理科学》2019,39(9):1496-1506

依托南京主城区居民日常身体活动调查数据,基于身体活动时空维度,挖掘城市居民日常身体活动时空分异特征,并采用混合效应模型探究身体活动分异的影响因素。研究表明：① 居民日常身体活动时空异质特征明显。工作日/非工作日不同类型身体活动时间安排及个体间差异均显著;工作性、交通性、家务性身体活动空间制约明显,而休闲性身体活动空间分布更具弹性;与工作日相比,非工作日不同类型身体活动空间范围变化收敛与扩散特征并存。② 活动空间范围、个人社会经济属性、自身健康状况对居民日常身体活动分异均具有显著影响。具体而言,居民日常活动空间范围决定身体活动的空间适应与选择;社会分工差异导致不同性别、年龄人群身体活动具有指向性;身体活动时间出现与个人社会经济实力倒置现象;而良好健康状态会激励居民日常身体活动的保持。  相似文献   

矿物组分对龙马溪组页岩动、静态弹性特征的影响          下载免费PDF全文

王斌  邓继新  刘喜武  潘建国  王佳庆  肖顺垚 《地球物理学报》2019,62(12):4833-4845

龙马溪组页岩是目前国内页岩气勘探的主要层位之一,其静态弹性性质是影响压裂效果的重要因素,而动态弹性性质则是页岩"甜点"地震预测的重要基础.但对龙马溪组页岩动、静态弹性特征相互关系及其影响因素缺少对比研究,致使运用动态弹性性质进行"甜点"预测时存在不确定性.在对龙马溪组页岩样品系统动、静态性质联合测量基础上,分析了页岩样品动、静态弹性性质的变化规律,并讨论了成岩作用与动、静态弹性性质变化规律的因果关系.研究结果表明,龙马溪组页岩上下两段成岩过程存在明显差异,致使上段页岩在结构上表现为以塑性黏土颗粒作为受力骨架,而下段页岩在结构上逐渐转变为脆性石英颗粒作为受力骨架.页岩岩石结构特征的变化控制了动、静态弹性特征的整体变化规律,表现为动、静态杨氏模量、峰值强度等随石英含量的增大表现出近似"V"型的变化形式,而与钙质含量变化呈现正相关关系,与黏土含量变化表现出负相关性.上段页岩宏观力学性质受微观石英+黏土颗粒集合体弹性性质控制,应力应变曲线表现出明显塑性段,动、静态杨氏模量比大于1.4,破裂易于发生在黏土与石英颗粒边界形成宏观单剪型破裂模式,样品脆性低,且脆性变化不受石英含量的影响.下段页岩宏观力学性质受微观石英颗粒集合体弹性性质控制,应力应变曲线表现为弹性变形,动、静态杨氏模量比小于1.4,破裂发生在石英颗粒内部形成宏观劈裂型破裂模式,样品脆性高,且脆性变化与石英含量呈明显正相关关系.研究结果可为龙马溪页气储层的测井解释和地震"甜点"预测提供依据.  相似文献   

东海陆架盆地南部中生代演化与动力学转换过程     

杨长清  杨传胜  孙晶  杨艳秋 《吉林大学学报(地球科学版)》2019,49(1):139-153

东海陆架盆地处于欧亚板块东南缘，其构造演化、动力学机制转换同太平洋板块与欧亚板块碰撞及印度-澳大利亚板块远程推挤效应有关。中生代以来，该盆地形成和演化过程受到古太平洋板块多期俯冲及多构造体系的叠加改造，地质构造和地球物理场复杂，盆地演化及动力学过程等一直是争论的焦点。本文利用最新调查资料，通过构造物理模拟实验、构造解析和平衡地质复原剖面等方法，结合区域构造背景，系统分析了东海陆架盆地中生代演化过程，探讨了其构造动力学转换过程。研究认为东海陆架盆地自中生代以来经历了晚三叠世前的被动大陆边缘和晚三叠世-中侏罗世活动大陆边缘挤压坳陷型盆地阶段，挤压应力来源于伊泽奈崎板块向欧亚大陆板块的低角度俯冲；早白垩世晚期-晚白垩世活动陆缘伸展断陷型盆地阶段，应力来源于太平洋板块向欧亚大陆板块俯冲后撤导致的岩石圈减薄作用；古近纪为弧后伸展断陷型盆地阶段。同时认为东海陆架盆地古特提斯构造域向古太平洋构造域转换的时间应该发生在中三叠世末期，古太平洋板块低角度俯冲和俯冲后撤代表华南中生代深部地质过程。  相似文献   

中国物理海洋学研究70年:发展历程、学术成就概览   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0  

魏泽勋  郑全安  杨永增  刘克修  徐腾飞  王凡  胡石建  谢玲玲  李元龙  杜岩  周磊  林霄沛  胡建宇  朱建荣  李均益  张正光  侯一筠  刘泽  田纪伟  黄晓冬  管玉平  刘志宇  杨庆轩  赵玮  宋振亚  刘海龙  董昌明  于卫东  连涛  陈朝晖  史久新  雷瑞波  刘煜  于福江  尹宝树  陈戈  王岩峰  李整林  熊学军  汪嘉宁  李晓峰  王永刚 《海洋学报》2019,41(10):23-64

本文概略评述新中国成立70年来物理海洋学各分支研究领域的发展历程和若干学术成就。中国物理海洋学研究起步于海浪、潮汐、近海环流与水团，以及以风暴潮为主的海洋气象灾害的研究。随着国力的增强，研究领域不断拓展，涌现了大量具有广泛影响力的研究成果，其中包括:提出了被国际广泛采用的“普遍风浪谱”和“涌浪谱”，发展了第三代海浪数值模式；提出了“准调和分析方法”和“潮汐潮流永久预报”等潮汐潮流的分析和预报方法；发现并命名了“棉兰老潜流”，揭示了东海黑潮的多核结构及其多尺度变异机理等，系统描述了太平洋西边界流系；提出了印度尼西亚贯穿流的南海分支(或称南海贯穿流)；不断完善了中国近海陆架环流系统，在南海环流、黑潮及其分支、台湾暖流、闽浙沿岸流、黄海冷水团环流、黄海暖流、渤海环流，以及陆架波方面均取得了深刻的认识；从大气桥和海洋桥两个方面对太平洋–印度洋–大西洋洋际相互作用进行了系统的总结；发展了浅海水团的研究方法，基本摸清了中国近海水团的分布和消长特征与机制，在大洋和极地水团分布及运动研究方面也做出了重要贡献；阐明了南海中尺度涡的宏观特征和生成机制，揭示了中尺度涡的三维结构，定量评估了其全球物质与能量输运能力；基本摸清了中国近海海洋锋的空间分布和季节变化特征，提出了地形、正压不稳定和斜压不稳定等锋面动力学机制；构建了“南海内波潜标观测网”，实现了对内波生成–演变–消亡全过程机理的系统认识；发展了湍流的剪切不稳定理论，提出了海流“边缘不稳定”的概念，开发了海洋湍流模式，提出了湍流混合参数化的新方法等；在海洋内部混合机制和能量来源方面取得了新的认识，并阐述了混合对海洋深层环流、营养物质输运等过程的影响；研发了全球浪–潮–流耦合模式，推出一系列海洋与气候模式；发展了可同化主要海洋观测数据的海洋数据同化系统和用于ENSO预报的耦合同化系统；建立了达到国际水准的非地转(水槽/水池)和地转(旋转平台)物理模 型实验平台；发展了ENSO预报的误差分析方法，建立了海洋和气候系统年代际变化的理论体系，揭示了中深层海洋对全球气候变化的响应；初步建成了中国近海海洋观测网；持续开展南北极调查研究；建立了台风、风暴潮、巨浪和海啸的业务化预报系统，为中国气象减灾提供保障；突破了国外的海洋技术封锁，研发了万米水深的深水水听器和海洋光学特性系列测量仪器；建立了溢油、危险化学品漂移扩散等预测模型，为伴随海洋资源开发所带来的风险事故的应急处理和预警预报提供科学支撑。文中引用的大量学术成果文献(每位第一作者优选不超过3篇)显示，经过70年的发展，中国物理海洋学研究培养了一支实力雄厚的科研队伍，这是最宝贵的成果。这支队伍必将成为中国物理海洋学研究攀登新高峰的主力军。  相似文献   

Sediment flux-driven channel geometry adjustment of bedrock and mixed gravel–bedrock rivers     

Edwin R.C. Baynes  Dimitri Lague  Philippe Steer  Stéphane Bonnet  Luc Illien 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2020,45(14):3714-3731

Sediment supply (Q_s) is often overlooked in modelling studies of landscape evolution, despite sediment playing a key role in the physical processes that drive erosion and sedimentation in river channels. Here, we show the direct impact of the supply of coarse-grained, hard sediment on the geometry of bedrock channels from the Rangitikei River, New Zealand. Channels receiving a coarse bedload sediment supply are systematically (up to an order of magnitude) wider than channels with no bedload sediment input for a given discharge. We also present physical model experiments of a bedrock river channel with a fixed water discharge (1.5 l min⁻¹) under different Q_s (between 0 and 20 g l⁻¹) that allow the quantification of the role of sediment in setting the width and slope of channels and the distribution of shear stress within channels. The addition of bedload sediment increases the width, slope and width-to-depth ratio of the channels, and increasing sediment loads promote emerging complexity in channel morphology and shear stress distributions. Channels with low Q_s are characterized by simple in-channel morphologies with a uniform distribution of shear stress within the channel while channels with high Q_s are characterized by dynamic channels with multiple active threads and a non-uniform distribution of shear stress. We compare bedrock channel geometries from the Rangitikei and the experiments to alluvial channels and demonstrate that the behaviour is similar, with a transition from single-thread and uniform channels to multiple threads occurring when bedload sediment is present. In the experimental bedrock channels, this threshold Q_s is when the input sediment supply exceeds the transport capacity of the channel. Caution is required when using the channel geometry to reconstruct past environmental conditions or to invert for tectonic uplift rates, because multiple configurations of channel geometry can exist for a given discharge, solely due to input Q_s. © 2020 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd  相似文献   

考虑土体性质的黄土震陷灾害区域性特征          下载免费PDF全文

许书雅  王平  王会娟  于一帆 《地震工程学报》2020,42(5):1194-1201

本研究在通渭、兰州、西吉、宝鸡、西安等多个西北典型黄土震陷灾害场地获取原状土样，通过对密度、含水率、孔隙比、塑液限等物理指标的测试，分析其与土体震陷性的关系；通过动弹性模量和阻尼比、动强度、震陷等室内动力特性试验，并结合大量前人研究资料，分析土体性质对岩土震陷灾害的区域性影响。结果表明：1）震陷系数与单一土体物性参数呈正相关或负相关关系，六盘山以西和以东的黄土震陷特性反映了明显的地区变化规律，在相同地震荷载作用下震害东轻西重；2）随着时间的推移，人类的活动增加，改变了土的含水率，导致土体上覆压力增大，在上覆压力的作用下，土体的初始孔隙数量有所减少，其固结程度越来越好，宏观表现为土体的易损性即震陷性减小。  相似文献   

过去40年太湖剧烈的湖泊物理环境变化及其潜在生态环境意义     

张运林  秦伯强  朱广伟 《湖泊科学》2020,32(5):1348-1359

过去40年,全球气候变暖、辐射变暗和变亮、风速减弱、气候异常波动等自然环境变化以及筑坝建闸、岸堤硬质化和调水引流等强烈人类活动势必会深刻改变太湖湖泊物理环境和过程,驱动湖泊生态系统演化.基于历史文献、档案数据以及气象水文和透明度等长期观测数据,本文系统梳理了太湖气温、水温、风速、水位和透明度等物理环境空间分布和长期变化特征,探讨了气温和风速、水位和透明度相互协同作用机制及其潜在生态环境意义.受全球变化和城市化等影响,过去40年太湖气温和水温呈现显著升高趋势,而近地面风速则表现为持续下降,湖泊增温和风速下降有利于藻类生长和蓝藻水华漂浮聚集,某种程度上增加了蓝藻水华出现频次和集聚的面积.为防洪和满足流域日益增长的水资源需求,闸坝管控和调水引流使太湖水位呈现缓慢增加趋势,而入湖污染物增加和富营养化则造成水体透明度逐渐下降,致使透明度与水位(水深)的比值明显降低,减少了湖底可利用光强,恶化水下光环境,在一定程度上驱动了太湖水生植被和草型生态系统退化.湖泊物理环境长期变化逐渐拓展了太湖藻型生境空间而压缩了草型生境空间,加剧了草型生态系统向藻型生态系统转化和增强了藻型生态系统的自我长期维持.太湖湖泊物理环境的显著变化也会部分抵消流域营养盐削减和湖体营养盐下降对藻类生物量和蓝藻水华的控制,增加了太湖蓝藻水华防控和湖泊富营养化治理的难度.这意味着未来流域控源截污需要更加严格的标准,而湖泊水位等物理环境的有效管控是应对藻华加剧和恢复草型生态系统的适应性管理策略.  相似文献   

2016年夏季南海海盆水体颗粒物粒径分布特征*     

郑文迪  周雯  曹文熙  王桂芬  邓霖  徐文龙  许占堂  李彩  蔡建南 《热带海洋学报》2018,37(5):74-85

颗粒物粒径分布(Particle Size Distribution, PSD)代表了颗粒物浓度与颗粒物粒径之间的关系, 影响着海洋生态环境和水体光学特性等。文章基于2016年夏季航次调查的生物光学剖面数据, 研究了南海海盆海域PSD的分布特征。研究发现, 幂律函数可以较好地拟合南海海盆区域的PSD, 对数空间中的实测的PSD与模拟的PSD平均决定系数高达0.95。PSD斜率(ξ)的分布范围为[1.27, 7.65], 均值为3.93±0.56。南海海盆区域表层水体的ξ均值与全球大洋表层水体的ξ均值相近, 但高于海湾等表层水体的ξ均值。ξ能较好地表征颗粒物平均粒径D_A的大小, 两者存在明显负相关关系, 即ξ值越高, D_A越小; 反之, D_A越大。通过分析T1断面的生物光学剖面数据及总体平均的PSD剖面数据, 发现PSD剖面分布特征如下: 1)表层水体的ξ值相对较高, 且D_A值相对较低, 推测可能是由于微微型藻类为主导颗粒物所致; 2) ξ值极小值层出现在次表层叶绿素浓度极大值层(Subsurface Chlorophyll Maximum Layer, SCML)中, 并伴随D_A极大值层的出现, 其原因可能是SCML中的大粒径浮游植物占比显著增加; 3)弱光层中的ξ值较SCML中的高, 但略低于表层的ξ值, 而D_A则位于表层与SCML的D_A之间, 这可能与浮游植物及其碎屑的絮凝、分解、沉降等过程相关。PSD特征影响着海水的固有光学特性, 分析发现: 由于SCML中的叶绿素浓度增加, 颗粒物散射系数(b_p(532))和颗粒物后向散射系数(b_bp(532))也相应呈现显著增加的趋势。弱光层中的平均b_p(532)与平均b_bp(532)最小。ξ与颗粒物衰减光谱斜率之间呈高分散性, Boss 等(2001b)的模型适合用于粗略估算区域性的ξ分布范围及均值。  相似文献   

Full-scale experimental modal analysis of an arch dam: The first experience in Iran     

《Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering》2014

Forced vibration field tests and finite-element studies were conducted on the Shahid Rajaee concrete arch dam in Northern Iran to determine the dynamic properties of the dam–reservoir–foundation system. The first forced vibration tests on the dam were performed with two different types of exciter units, with a limited maximum force, bolted on the dam crest for alternative in-phase and out-of-phase sequencing. Because of an insufficient number of recording sensors, two arrangements of sensors were used to cover sufficient points on the dam crest and one gallery during tests. Two kinds of vibration tests, on–off and frequency sweeping, were carried out on the dam. The primary natural frequencies of the coupled system for both symmetric and anti-symmetric vibration modes were approximated during on–off tests in two types of sequencing of exciters, in phase and out-of-phase, with a maximum frequency of 14 Hz. The principal forced vibration tests were performed at precise resonant frequencies based on the results of the on–off tests in which sweeping around the approximated frequencies at 0.1 Hz increments was performed. Baseline correction and suitable bandpass filtering were applied to the test records and then signal processing was carried out to compute the auto power, cross power and coherence spectra. Nine middle modes of vibration of the coupled system and corresponding damping ratios were estimated. The empirical results are compared against the results from calibrated finite-element modeling of the system using former ambient vibration tests, considering the dam–reservoir–foundation interaction effects. Good agreement is obtained between experimental and numerical results for eight middle modes of the dam–reservoir–foundation system.  相似文献