青藏高原及邻区未来地震活动性趋势数值分析          下载免费PDF全文

董培育  石耀霖  程惠红  乔学军 《地球物理学报》2020,63(3):1155-1169

区域中长期地震危险性数值分析研究,需要对其初始构造应力场有所了解,但目前以及未来一段时期内仍无法直接观测到深部孕震层区域的应力场状况.本文首先基于岩石库仑-摩尔破裂准则,利用青藏高原及邻区百年历史范围内的强震信息,来反演估算该区域的初始应力场.然后,考虑区域构造应力加载及强震造成的应力扰动共同作用,重现了历史强震的发展过程.然而对于初始应力场的反演估算,本文仅能给出区域其上下限的极限值,并不能唯一确定.因此,采用Monte Carlo随机法,进行大量独立的随机试验计算,生成数千种有差异的区域初始应力场模型,且保证每种模型都能令历史强震有序发生,但未来应力场演化过程不尽相同.最后,将数千种模型在未来时间段内的危险性预测结果集成为数理统计结果,据此给出了区域未来的地震危险性概率分布图.初步结果显示未来强震危险性概率较高地区集中在巴颜喀拉块体边界及鲜水河断裂带地区.  相似文献   

Estimation of the 3D correlation structure of an alluvial aquifer from surface-based multi-frequency ground-penetrating radar reflection data     

Zhiwei Xu  James Irving  Kyle Lindsay  John Bradford  Peimin Zhu  Klaus Holliger 《Geophysical Prospecting》2020,68(2):678-689

Knowledge about the stochastic nature of heterogeneity in subsurface hydraulic properties is critical for aquifer characterization and the corresponding prediction of groundwater flow and contaminant transport. Whereas the vertical correlation structure of the heterogeneity is often well constrained by borehole information, the lateral correlation structure is generally unknown because the spacing between boreholes is too large to allow for its meaningful inference. There is, however, evidence to suggest that information on the lateral correlation structure may be extracted from the correlation statistics of the subsurface reflectivity structure imaged by surface-based ground-penetrating radar measurements. To date, case studies involving this approach have been limited to 2D profiles acquired at a single antenna centre frequency in areas with limited complementary information. As a result, the practical reliability of this methodology has been difficult to assess. Here, we extend previous work to 3D and consider reflection ground-penetrating radar data acquired using two antenna centre frequencies at the extensively explored and well-constrained Boise Hydrogeophysical Research Site. We find that the results obtained using the two ground-penetrating radar frequencies are consistent with each other, as well as with information from a number of other studies at the Boise Hydrogeophysical Research Site. In addition, contrary to previous 2D work, our results indicate that the surface-based reflection ground-penetrating radar data are not only sensitive to the aspect ratio of the underlying heterogeneity, but also, albeit to a lesser extent, to the so-called Hurst number, which is a key parameter characterizing the local variability of the fine-scale structure.  相似文献   

An endemic freshwater mussel species from the Orontes River basin in Turkey and Syria represents duck mussel’s intraspecific lineage: Implications for conservation     

《Limnologica》2020

Amik Lake or, historically, Lake of Antioch, was a large freshwater body in the lower Orontes River basin (Hatay Province, Turkey) that was drained in the 1940s–1970s. Several endemic animal species were described from this lake, including the freshwater mussel Anodonta pseudodopsis Locard, 1883 (Bivalvia: Unionidae) characterized by a large rounded shell covered by a peculiar yellow or yellowish-brown periostracum. Molecular analyses of topotypes of this nominal taxon collected from the former lake’s tributaries in the Amik Plain indicate that it is an intra-specific lineage of the widespread Anodonta anatina (Linnaeus, 1758) based on the mitochondrial COI and 16S rRNA, and the nuclear 28S rRNA gene fragments. Geometric morphometric analyses using the lectotype and topotypes of Anodonta pseudodopsis support our DNA-based hypothesis on the status of this nominal taxon. A new synonymy is provided as follows: Anodonta anatina = Anodonta pseudodopsis syn. nov. The syntype of Anodonta pseudodopsis SMF 5129 “See von Antiochia” (Senckenberg Research Institute and Natural History Museum, Frankfurt, Germany) is designated here to be the lectotype of this nominal taxon. Finally, we conclude that Anodonta anatina range covers the Orontes River basin in Turkey and Syria and the Nahr al-Kabir al-Shamali River in the Latakia Governorate of Syria. This intraspecific lineage of Anodonta anatina and other freshwater mussels of the Middle East are highly threatened due to multiple anthropogenic impacts and must be a focus of international conservation efforts. The Karasu River in eastern Turkey hosts viable populations of all freshwater mussel species of the Orontes’s fauna and can be considered one of the most important water bodies for the conservation of these imperiled animals in the region.  相似文献   

Investigation of the elevation of saltwater wedge due to subsurface dams     

Qinpeng Chang  Tianyuan Zheng  Youyuan Chen  Xilai Zheng  Marc Walther 《水文研究》2020,34(22):4251-4261

Subsurface dams are rather effective and used for the prevention of saltwater intrusion in coastal regions around the world. We carried out the laboratory experiments to investigate the elevation of saltwater wedge after the construction of subsurface dams. The elevation of saltwater wedge refers to the upward movement of the downstream saltwater wedge because the subsurface dams obstruct the regional groundwater flow and reduce the freshwater discharge. Consequently, the saltwater wedge cannot further extend in the longitudinal direction but rises in the vertical profile resulting in significant downstream aquifer salinization. In order to quantitatively address this issue, field-scale numerical simulations were conducted to explore the influence of various dam heights, distances, and hydraulic gradients on the elevation of saltwater wedge. Our investigation shows that the upward movement of the saltwater wedge and its areal extension in the vertical domain of the downstream aquifer become more severe with a higher dam and performed a great dependence on the freshwater discharge. Furthermore, the increase of the hydraulic gradient and the dam distance from the sea boundary leads to a more pronounced wedge elevation. This phenomenon comes from the variation of the freshwater discharge due to the modification of dam height, location, and hydraulic gradient. Large freshwater discharge can generate greater repulsive force to restrain the elevation of saltwater wedge. These conclusions provide theoretical references for the behaviour of the freshwater–seawater interface after the construction of subsurface dams and help optimize the design strategy to better utilize the coastal groundwater resources.  相似文献   

平面不规则基础隔震结构抗扭设计研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

黄小宁  王威  王宁  杜永峰 《地震工程学报》2020,42(5):1283-1288

针对平面不规则结构在水平地震作用下的振动特性，通过调整隔震层隔震支座的布置，得到3种不同工况的隔震层刚心与上部结构质心、刚心相对位置关系，分别以楼层位移和层间位移为指标的扭转位移比，作为平面不规则基础隔震结构扭转响应指标，利用弹塑性时程分析方法，通过对3种不同工况的扭转指标对比分析研究，提出适用于平面不规则基础隔震结构的抗扭设计方法。结果表明：对于平面不规则结构，应在保证隔震层扭转位移比小于1.2的基础上，使隔震层的刚心和上部结构的刚心分别位于上部结构质心的两侧，可有效控制上部结构的扭转。  相似文献   

MapGIS到ArcGIS格式的数据转换方法研究——以麻阳县地质图为例     

李双莲  周丽芸  胡航 《测绘与空间地理信息》2020,(4):185-188

湖南地矿行业多采用MapGIS软件进行地质数据的管理和分析,然而,该软件在数据处理和分析方面略显不足,尤其在处理大数据时更是力不从心,且其中的67版本难以满足2000坐标系统的要求。因此,为了更加有效地使用已有的数据,并充分发挥其价值,本文以麻阳县地质图为例,通过研究MapGIS和ArcGIS软件之间的异同,总结出一套较为完整的MapGIS到ArcGIS格式的数据转换方法,使得转换前后的数据在数量、样式、属性等方面基本保持一致。  相似文献   

海南省连片贫困地区农户致贫风险分析   总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3  

张金萍  宋伟  林丹  余珍鑫  李庭筠  罗邱戈  程叶青 《地理科学》2020,40(4):608-616

农村贫困与减贫是世界性难题,也是中国各级政府高度重视并着力解决的重大民生问题。基于农户及致贫风险的文献梳理,从区位、社会和劳动力3个要素维度构建了农户致贫风险分析的二元Logistic回归模型。采用484户农户问卷调查数据,分析了海南省连片贫困地区农户的致贫风险,提出有效减贫和持续发展对策。研究发现:① 海南连片贫困地区生态环境良好但贫困发生率较高,家庭劳动力较充裕但受教育水平较低,子女教育支出负担重,因病因残致贫比例较高,女性务工人口较多,农户自身脱贫致富的发展动力不足。② 海拔高度200 m以下、男性户主、拥有残疾或患病成员、务工人口比例低、女性务工人员占比高、以及单位劳动力供养学生数高的农户具有更大的致贫风险。③ 研究未发现女性户主、少数民族、低受教育水平户主、大型规模家庭有更高的致贫风险,女性成员比例、抚养比等因素对农户贫困影响较小。激发农户内生动力、大力发展特色化和规模化农业、增加农户就业机会、加强针对农民工、女性务工人员和病残群体的社会保障等减贫政策制定实施是实现脱贫攻坚目标的重要途径。  相似文献   

基于物流企业数据的2007-2017年中国城市网络空间特征及演化     

宗会明  吕瑞辉 《地理科学》2020,40(5):760-767

采用2007、2012和2017年中国百强物流企业网络数据,运用世界城市网络研究的链锁网络模型方法,分析中国城市网络的等级结构、空间分异、空间联系及其演变特征。研究表明：基于物流企业数据的中国城市网络具有明显的层级特征,并呈现“两主多中心”的区域空间结构,网络联系的离散水平逐渐降低,其稳定性和均衡性有所增加,等级结构趋于合理;各节点城市组织能力空间分异明显,京津冀、长三角、珠三角的组织能力和介中心性始终处于较高水平,城市间物流联系逐渐增强,并有协同发展的趋势;城市网络联系中,长江沿线城市物流网络联系地位上升,上海为中心的T字型空间结构替代以北京为中心的核心网络结构,在全国尺度形成以胡焕庸线为界线,物流联系网络呈中东部密集、西部相对稀疏的空间格局,其演变过程呈现由等级网络联系特征向等级性与空间近邻性网络联系特征转变趋势。  相似文献   

中国工业烟粉尘排放时空演化及其影响因素     

郭政  姚士谋  吴常艳 《地理科学》2020,40(12):1949-1957

采用空间分析和空间杜宾模型等方法，研究1999—2017年中国工业烟粉尘排放时空演化特征及其影响因素。结果表明：① 中国工业烟粉尘排放空间分布差异明显，其排放的基尼系数和污染物分布指数均呈现下降态势，空间集中程度有所缓和。② 中国工业烟粉尘排放空间分布呈东北?西南走向，其排放中心不断由东南向西北方向迁移。③ 中国工业烟粉尘排放存在空间相关性和空间溢出效应，其冷热点区空间分布发生显著变化。④ 能源消耗、第二产业比重、人口密度和经济发展水平的提升将会增加工业烟粉尘排放，而外资水平、治理技术水平和环境规制力度的提升则有利于减少工业烟粉尘排放。  相似文献   

景电灌区移民对祁连山植被恢复的相对生态价值          下载免费PDF全文

赵建林  康德奎  彭维恩  王建礼  史中兴  陈天顺  董志洋  汪杰  常兆丰 《干旱区地理》2020,43(1):182-189

近些年来，生态系统的服务价值研究已成为生态学以及生态经济学领域中的一个热点问题。祁连山被称为伸进西北干旱区的一座湿岛，在我国“一带一路”建设中占有重要地位。景电灌区兴建以来从祁连山移出了大量农牧民。那么，景电灌区移民对祁连山植被恢复的生态价值如何呢？以景电灌区移民涉及到的祁连山东端景泰、古浪、天祝3县山区为研究区，用价值工程方法对从祁连山区向景电灌区移民退耕退牧还林还草的生态价值做了分析，并与模型因子当量法的计算结果进行了比较。结果表明：祁连山向景电灌区移民退耕退牧还林还草总的生态价值为37.458 1×10⁸元。其中，退耕还林还草的生态价值为37.438 6×0⁸元，退牧后草场植被盖度增加的生态价值为194.79×104元。计算结果为用COSTANZA和谢高地模型因子当量法计算得的祁连山向景电灌区移民退耕退牧还林还草总的生态服务价值40.054 0×0⁸元的93.52%。两种方法计算结果祁连山向景电灌区移民退耕退牧还林还草总的生态价值为景电工程年总成本1.45×0⁸元的25.8~27.6倍。两种计算结果一致表明，景电灌区生态移民对祁连山植被恢复的生态价值十分突出。由此也可以看出，COSTANZA和谢高地模型因子当量法适用于祁连山的生态服务价值分析。  相似文献